| Tier 1-Elite TE1 | Risk | Reward | |
| TE1 | Travis Kelce | You just never know when father time is going to show up. As pointed out by Hayden Winks, the team seems to be intentionally lightening his load in preseason. Foreshadowing? | The amount of freedom him and Mahomes have is nearly unmatched. So will be the volume. Even sans Tyreek this offense will be among the leagues best. |
| TE2 | Mark Andrews | A healthy Ravens team could have a 100 less pass attempts than last year. That’s something to at least consider at his 2nd to early 3rd round price. | Andrews put up a 64-852-10 line on 41% of the offensive snaps in 2019. High end volume concerns or not, he’s incredible. |
| Tier 2-High End TE1 | Risk | Reward | |
| TE3 | Kyle Pitts | QB questions could cloud his high end ceiling. So could usage if the Falcons don’t allow him to be the true mismatch weapon he can be. | Early preseason usage looks promising as it pertains to him running routes from the slot or inline instead of as a traditional WR. The Falcons somehow won 7 games last season with a -146 point differential. This season they have the 7th least favorable SOS adjustment from 2021 to 2022 per Sharp Football. Lots of pass attempts incoming |
| TE4 | Darren Waller | Davante Adams’ presence is an obvious chip at his target projection but if he’s a decisive 3rd in the redzone pecking order that could spell problems for his ceiling. Week 1 availability reportedly in question. | The Raiders have the 3rd toughest schedule per Sharp Football. They’ll also get a pace bump. Two factors that should help balance out the volume loss he’ll see. Waller recently said that there is more definitive role for him in the redzone this year. |
| TE5 | George Kittle | How much trust does Shanahan have in Trey Lance? The highest run rate in the league is one the table and that doesn’t feel good when trying to project work for multiple talented pass catchers. Related: Why did Mo Sanu have one more redzone target than George Kittle *c’mon son* | Bet on talent if you can get him at reduced cost. We know he’s a game wrecker with the ball in his hands but there are too many questions at play here to invest in him aggressively. |
| Tier 3 | Risk | Reward | |
| TE6 | Dalton Schultz | It’s all price, I turn into Mr. Krabs when I see where he’s going in drafts. | Schultz’s opportunity to hog targets again is clearly there. Schultz was 3rd amongst all TE’s in catches for 1st downs last season. You wonder what he could have accomplished if Dak wasn’t slowed by a hamstring injury for 2/3’s of the year or if Blake Jarwin wasn’t eating into his snaps early in the year. |
| TE7 | Dallas Goedert | The addition of AJ Brown and the fact that the Eagles were the only team under 500 pass attempts will challenge Goedert’s ability to produce unless more balance is achieved. His adp mixed with an non elite target opportunity is something I will haggle over. | Coincidently some of his biggest games last season came after the Eagles shifted dramatically towards the run. An imposing, athletic presence…Goedert has the talent to do massive damage if the Eagles offense takes the leap many expect. |
| TE8 | TJ Hockenson | It’s a crowded room of weapons and that’s even before they get Jameson Williams into the lineup. Amon Ra St. Brown’s emergence in the same areas of the field that Hockenson frequents doesn’t help his case. Kind of wanna drop him to Tier 4. | Hockenson has had good red zone target shares the last two years and this year the Lions could be good enough to actually make that matter. |
| Tier 4 | Risk | Reward | |
| TE9 | Dawson Knox | Gabriel Davis, Isaiah Mckenzie and James Cook are explosive pass game weapons that could see varying degrees of involvement. There’s a chance that Knox’s role doesn’t grow enough to offset the likely TD regression he’ll see. | The TDs will be tough to replicate but the volume can absolutely take a leap with Knox operating closer to the areas of the field that Cole Beasley did…and with his locked in redzone role, 25 more targets in that area left behind by Beasley/Manny, it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility that those double-digit TDs get approached again. |
| TE10 | Zach Ertz | Ertz averaged 4.5 targets per game w/Deandre Hopkins in the lineup. The Cardinals also added talented rookie TE Trey McBride high in the draft. Whether it’s Hopkins return and/or McBride’s development, Ertz could lose steam instead of gain it as the season progresses. | Ertz averaged 9 targets per game w/o Deandre Hopkins in the lineup. That kinda of volume in a good offense is very difficult to come by at the TE position. |
| Tier 5 | Risk | Reward | |
| TE11 | David Njoku | A run heavy offense with history of involving multiple TE’s whose missing it’s starting QB for 2/3’s of the season. | A significant financial commitment and questions at WR could solidify Njoku as a priority on this offense. If you’re waiting until the double digit rounds for TE, Njoku is likely the biggest upside swing you can take. |
| TE12 | Cole Kmet | The late round TE darling is now being taken around TE11. Are we getting a little too comfortable? | He could probably play half his snaps blindfolded and score more TDs than he did last year. The Bears want to establish themselves as a good, zone running team but idk if their talent level will consistently allow for it. Negative scripts and volume should be in Kmet’s favor with the blank slate at WR outside of Mooney. |
| TE13 | Albert Okwuegbunam | Multiple TE’s have gotten talked up this offseason for the Broncos. His preseason usage has not be conducive with a player on his way to a breakout season. | Things don’t sound great right now but the upside is still there for athletic 3rd year guy. He’s got the talent, good environment, and red zone opportunity to reach top 12 status. His adp will now likely fall to a range where taking him as a TE2 lottery ticket makes a ton of sense. |
| TE14 | Robert Tonyan | Tonyan was just recently cleared to practice so we’re unsure of his early season timeline. One would imagine there will be an early season pitch count. There’s also volume concerns to contend with as a run heavy script makes an overwhelming amount of sense for this team. | He’s athletic, has already gained the trust of Aaron Rodgers and has a double digit TD season under his belt. At his modest cost it makes some sense to take a late flier on him to see how the team ramps up his workload. Pair him with someone whose got a little more earlier season certainty if you’re waiting at TE in drafts. |
| TE15 | Pat Freiermuth | With a good defense, a 1st round RB and additions to their O-Line, it would surprise nobody if the Steelers leaned into a ground and pound approach. George Pickens preseason emergence won’t help matters either from a volume prospective. TDs could be vital. | Steelers will have a more mobile QB this year regardless who they decide to start. Deeper route combo’s as I expect from Canada will also help Freiermuth’s opportunity for bigger players. Whether it’s moving the pocket or extended plays, the Steelers can better leverage the 6’5” former basketballer. |
| TE16 | Tyler Higbee | Higbee is in a group of players at the position that could give you just good enough numbers not to cut but never be a difference maker, | 5 or so targets per in a Sean McVay offense does carry value on some level. If the surroundings of a good offense just make you feel a little more cozy, I can dig it. |
| TE17 | Irv Smith | Early season health is obviously a concern but just how he’ll be utilized is unknown. I’d also expect him to be no higher than 4th on the redzone target pecking order. | For those of us that waited for Gerald Everett to breakout with the Rams we’ve got a new detached TE to root for in this scheme. Irv is a smooth potential mismatch threat who Vikings beat writer Arif Hasan has said the team would like to use him downfield more often. These are the upside shots you should be taking in LRTE builds. |
| TE18 | Hunter Henry | The man reportedly calling the shots for this Patriots pass game had a passing offense for the Giants last season that averaged a league worst 4.8 adjusted yards per pass attempt. Henry’s strong redzone target share could take a hit with Devante Parker likely in a high snap role. | Even with Parker in town, Henry should remain a redzone priority. If we just decide we’re going to give Belichick the benefit for the weirdest offensive experiment I can remember…there some appeal in the variance of the situation. |
| Tier 6 | Risk | Reward | |
| TE19 | Mo Alie Cox | Parris Campbell stays healthy and takes on a significant role. The Colts pass rate doesn’t jump enough to support MAC being a true difference maker. | 136 vacated targets, locked in starter, QB upgrade and history of efficiency. MAC is one of my guys this year. |
| TE20 | Mike Gesicki | He takes too much off the table as a blocker and he’s left splitting snaps with Durham Smythe and associates. Cedrick Wilson muddies his slot snaps. | I’ve been off of Gesicki but Ian Hartitz theorized an interesting scenario. If Gesicki is in-line full time, he’ll get more advantageous matchups than he would as a slot. I’m still most likely off him but his athletic profile does at least make it a thought if he’s around late enough. A trade could push him up higher than you might think. |
| TE21 | Austin Hooper | Hooper isn’t gonna give you flash plays. If the Titans play action passing game isn’t humming and Henry isn’t setting him up for end zone targets it could be a snooze fest. | Should eat up a lot of snaps as an inline fit in this Derrick Henry led offense. There is enough opportunity here for Hooper to potential be a TE you can get by with weekly |
| TE22 | Noah Fant | Besides the pass catching talent on paper, nothing else with this pass offense sounds appealing. Fant’s preaseason usage leaves much to be desired. | Fant remains one of the most talented TE’s in the league and whether ole Pete wants to admit it..he’s got some negative game scripts in his immediate future. |
| TE23 | Brevin Jordan | The Texans have long had commitment issues at TE. | It sounds like he’s being given a legit shot to separate himself from the pack. If he does there’s room for a solid target projection here. |
| TE24 | Gerald Everett | A little too much Donald Parham talk for my liking (for Everett sake, I want no Parham smoke) | Still an upper echelon athlete at the position who got 8 million guaranteed from a team that throws at one of the highest rates in the NFL. |
| Tier 7 – Don’t draft but monitor | Risk | Reward | |
| TE25 | Jonnu Smith | More of 2021. | The Pats go back to the drawing board with their prized 2021 free agent acquisition. Talent isn’t the issue. |
| TE26 | Hayden Hurst | It’s a bit role that doesn’t even reach Uzomah levels. | Hurst has been sure handed throughout his career and lands in a great offensive environment. |
| TE27 | Taysom Hill | How many routes will he run? If his role is mostly the gadget variety his floor is frightening. | If you’re taking a TE this late your likely settling for a little volume or praying for a TD. Why not do it with a supreme TD stealer. |
| TE28 | Kyle Rudolph | Brate and Otton could make this a platoon where nobody has value. | Redzone potential in a Brady led offense |
| TE29 | Adam Trautman | The WR additions + whatever Taysom is doesn’t leave room for a role of substance. | There was a time not too long ago where the Saints were really excited about him. How bout now? |
Carey’s 2022 Fantasy WR Tiers
| Tier 1 – Elite WR1 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR1 | Cooper Kupp | Matt Stafford’s shoulder. TD regression | If Stafford’s shoulder is right you could make an argument for him as the 1.02 overall at minimum. |
| WR2 | Justin Jefferson | The Cooper Kupp “role” is a bit more spread out than we think. Cousins and Thielen buddy buddy ways in the red zone nip at Jefferson’s high end TD ceiling. | Jefferson got one of the best situation makeovers imaginable and he was historically productive for a 1st and 2nd year WR in the previous one. A season for the record books is on the table. |
| WR3 | Ja’marr Chase | You’re paying a different cost now. Last year you were playing with house money. This year you NEED it. Higgins just as involved. | Chase set the league on fire with middling Bengals pass rates. If those numbers take a noticeable jump it could get scary. |
| WR4 | Stefon Diggs | The Bills have the highest projected win total in the AFC. Normally we wouldn’t worry about them taking their foot off the gas but with a new OC we can’t be 100 percent certain. | He’s got one of the most complete profiles in all of fantasy. Checks every box and has positive TD regression otw. |
| Tier 2 – High End WR1 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR5 | Davante Adams | His Green Bay volume is impossible to replicate. His green zone competition is also more formidable. | Even if his target outlook isn’t top 2, it’s still probably top 8. He’s on a team that should play much faster and likely to have more shootout potential. |
| WR6 | CeeDee Lamb | Questions on the O-Line cause the Cowboys to adjust their pass rate subtly, Zeke remains the redzone target leader…chipping at Lamb’s high end ceiling. | Leading the NFL in targets is squarely on the table for Lamb. Mixing his level of talent with this opportunity makes him a draft day priority. |
| Tier 3 – Rest of WR1 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR7 | Mike Evans | Chris Godwin’s quick recovery cuts into Evans potential for target hog games. | Evans’ TD upside is up there with any WR in football. |
| WR8 | Tyreek Hill | The special off script magic that Hill and Mahomes were able to make can’t be replicated. You’re also going from a top 5 pass rate in KC to a Miami one that if it’s middle of the league it’s considered a win. | Between the draft capital and contract given up I think it’s fair to say that the Dolphins will be pretty motivated to get Tyreek the football. Assuming the route design is Shanahan-esque, Hill should be given space to make plays after the catch. |
| WR9 | Deebo Samuel | Having a new, inexperienced starter at QB could cap the pass rate. Deebo’s ADP is deserving based on how insane he was as a receiver and runner but it doesn’t do enough to account for uncertain and regression. | Deebo is one of those talents that can bend numbers. His ability with the ball in his hands matched with a scheme that gets him in advantageous situations gives him opportunities to do more with less. The QB change while uncertain does offer more upside outside the numbers, down the field and on extended plays. |
| WR10 | Tee Higgins | Much like what Mahomes and Chiefs have faced. Teams may opt to play more cover 2 and invite the Bengals to run the football. Those softer looks could hurt their chunk play potential in the passing game. | As I stated with Chase, if the Bengals mightily improved O-Line talent lead them to raise their pass rate it could get scary. Sporting a nearly identical target share to that of Chase, he may not have the home run speed his counterpart has but he’s supremely talented in his own right and will benefit from the concessions defenses have to make to keep Chase from exploiting them. |
| WR11 | AJ Brown | After a slow start the Eagles morphed into the run heaviest team in the NFL. AJB is no stranger to those scripts and has balled out in spite of them but he’s now in a situation with more target competition than he had with the Titans. You still want to bet on his talent at the end of the day but you’d like a little margin for error. | Josh Norris was the first person I heard theorize this. The Eagles have a decision to make on Jalen Hurts very soon. They were run heavy out of necessity last year but the initial plan was to be a passing team. They could very well come out and stress test Jalen Hurts with goal of making the most informed decision possible at QB for 2023 and beyond. That changes AJB’s outlook significantly. I like investing in the variance. |
| WR12 | DJ Moore | There are two questions here…is the infrastructure around this offense good enough to push Moore into a true breakout (TDs)? And does the hot seat of Matt Rhule lead him to dramatic, ground and pound mode to try to scrap together as many wins as possible. | His role and talent combo is among the best at the position. You can argue to what extent but it’s pretty clear that the QB position is better. I think his floor is pretty secure but if McAdoo, Baker Mayfield and a healthy CMC brings stability to this offense we can possibly see the ceiling we’ve been waiting for. |
| Tier 4 – High End WR2 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR13 | Michael Pittman | His ADP is rising from “a hit would be nice” to “a hit is absolutely necessary” range. | A bankable target share with no significant adds to the pass offense. A QB upgrade and the potential for more passing volume. Many people believe Pittman is on the verge of stardom. |
| WR14 | Terry Mclaurin | Last year’s efficiency woes continue and now he has a 1st round WR and a healthy Curtis Samuel to contend with for targets. | It may not feel like it but he did get a QB upgrade. One that has a live arm and surprising downfield numbers last season. |
| WR15 | Courtland Sutton | Head coach Nathaniel Hackett has overseen some slow offenses in GB. He’s said that they will move at the pace that Russ wants but until we see it it’s an unknown. | Prior to injury Sutton looked on his way to stardom with far less QB talent than what he has in Russell Wilson. The loss of Tim Patrick stabilizes his target share and redzone outlook and his talent downfield and at the catch point will be enhanced by maybe the best deep ball thrower in the NFL. |
| WR16 | Mike Williams | Williams hasn’t been a particularly efficient player over his career, partly because of how he was used in the past but it is something you think about when the price tag raises in drafts. | The Chargers O-Line had a top 5 adjusted sack rate per Sharp Football and added a stud 1st round guard to their mix. Already top 3 in pass rate could we see more deep passing added to the mix? |
| WR17 | Keenan Allen | Drafting him at cost means sacrificing upside. He doesn’t generate big plays. He’s not a catch point dominator. You lose your draft taking him but how do you get ahead? | Even in decline the volume should still be there. If you are a fan of floor and certainty he’s your man. |
| WR18 | Allen Robinson | Volume could be a concern as the most likely scenario is that the offense continues to run through Cooper Kupp and spread around everywhere else. | The Rams redzone passing tendency mixed with Arob’s size and gifts scream double digit TD upside. He goes from being drastically mismanaged to a system that excels at getting receivers free releases and advantageous looks. |
| WR19 | Diontae Johnson | His volume could take a hit in multiple ways. The QB play in training camp has not got glowing reviews. This could lead to a more run centric focus for the Steelers. It’s also impossible not to think his volume won’t take a hit due to late career Ben Roethlisberger being gone. | This is a bet on talent play. Any player that earns targets and separation at the rate Diontae does can produce in different fashions. There will be also be an inherent rise in aDot. Watching Matt Canada’s pre Steelers offense and you see a frenzy of motion and deeper route concepts.#DownfieldDiontae can leverage his separation skills and explosiveness to more chunk gains |
| WR20 | Chris Godwin | Coming off an acl injury there is a chance that he misses games early and also isn’t quite himself when he does return to action. | He’s probably a 2nd round pick if completely healthy and you’re getting him at a multiple round discount. Reports seem to place him ahead of schedule. |
| Tier 5 – Mid to Low End WR2 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR21 | Gabriel Davis | He’s not the only player on this offense ascending. Dawson Knox, Isaiah McKenzie and James Cook have interesting potential in this offense. If the Bills are just as committed to developing those players and Knox’s redzone role grows, Davis’ ceiling doesn’t look the same. | The pathway to as many snaps as he can handle is there. Josh Allen is an aggressive a deep ball thrower as there is in the league, matching up with Davis’ strengths. Manny Sanders and Cole Beasley leave 182 targets behind. LOTS to like. |
| WR22 | Brandin Cooks | Even with late season improvements the Texans offense was in the basement. You always want good football players with strong target shares but drafting too many with capped TD upside can limit your teams ceiling. | A 25% percent target share seems like a virtual certainty. Davis Mills is ascending and the O-Line should be improved. Stylistically Cooks has the big play potential to shift the TD expectation math. |
| WR23 | Jaylen Waddle | A run centric offense proves unable to support two high end WR’s. He’s fine at cost but does he have enough upside to be a true adp beater? New injury concerns have surfaced. | Not being pigeonholed into a low aDot role could spell fireworks here. Much like Tyreek Hill, Waddle has the same offensive benefits and is gifted with outlier speed and explosiveness. |
| WR24 | Jerry Jeudy | Courtland Sutton establishes himself as the clear number one. Jeudy’s disappointing career redzone usage continues and KJ Hamler parlays the Tyler Lockett comps into an established role. | Tim Patrick’s injury likely locks Jeudy into 2 WR sets and unblurs the target picture some. Albert O seemingly not distinguishing himself helps as well. I admittingly wasn’t high on Jeudy coming in but things are looking up for him. |
| WR25 | Rashod Bateman | Overall volume not enough to be true difference maker. | Bateman will have the target share and talent to do damage. If the Ravens O-Line improvements take he’ll be a valuable piece of a top 5 scoring offense. |
| WR26 | Marquise Brown | Could be a tale of 2 seasons for Hollywood. He’s got the chance to start hot while Deandre Hopkins misses the first 6 games but what is his role afterwards? The Cardinals were among the highest in 12 personnel usage teams last season, just added a 2nd round TE, have a talented slot in Rondale Moore and are still very fond of AJ Green on the boundary. A lot of different ways his targets get pecked at. | The Cardinals gave up substantial draft capital to get Brown to Arizona. You would think that would be enough motivation to keep him a priority regardless what’s around him. He’s going to an offense that traditionally throws the ball more and takes shots downfield more often. |
| WR27 | Darnell Mooney | Mooney is in an offense whose ceiling looks significantly capped. | The new coaching staff seems more intentional about leveraging his quickness and explosion. Volume will be there but he’s also built a rapport with Justin Fields, a talented deep ball thrower. A deep shots could brighten his outlook. |
| WR28 | Amon Ra St. Brown | The Lions have put together one of the best young skill groups in the NFL. DJ Chark looked well on his to being an upper echelon WR before injuries hit. Jameson Williams is working back from injury himself but has blinding open field ability. Swift and Hockenson are two of the most talented pass catchers at their positions. Lots of mouths to feed. | His price reflects the concerns around volume fairly well. He’s also seemingly further establishing himself as a core piece of this team and offense. His game syncs up well with Jared Goff and offensive environment as a whole should be better than in 2021. |
| Tier 6 -WR3 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR29 | Kadarius Toney | There was this weird time period in the offseason where it looked like Toney could be dealt. All the right things have been said since then but I’d imagine that’s a factor that has kept his adp lower than it should be. | Toney just moves differently then everybody else. He overtook an NFL passing game during his healthy games as a rookie. Now he get’s a massive coaching upgrade where they’ll play faster, throw more often with better design. Why isn’t he going higher by now? |
| WR30 | Michael Thomas | There’s the obvious one, what if he isn’t the same Michael Thomas? Then there’s the fact that this WR group is way more talented than the ones he dominated targets with. Targets he received with a QB way more suited to pepper him. There’s also the Saints top 3 run rate last season. | Lots of buzz that Michael Thomas looks like his old self in Saints camp. There is also optimism that with the add weapons the Saints will go back to their spread you out and throw roots. Even if he isn’t the target hog of old, he starts to look interesting if those 2 things prove true. |
| WR31 | Christian Kirk | The Jags have improved their pass catching corps but still lack a true table setter. Kirk is a good player but proves incapable of being an efficient engine of a pass offense. History of uneven play on the boundary. | Plays an overwhelming majority of his snaps out of the slot in 3 wide sets, making the boundary snaps he receives icing on the cake. He gobbles up volume as well as benefits from designed shots from the aggressive throwing Lawrence. Potential adp beater. |
| WR32 | JuJu Smith Schuster | Travis Kelce will remain at the top of the pecking order and the team has longer commitments to MVS (technically) and Skyy Moore. Target distribution could end up very flat outside of Kelce. | JJ Zachariason did well to point out the bias at play with Juju. He’s getting a huge QB upgrade, one who challenges every blade of grass on the field every play. While he’s not a standout separator, he shouldn’t be pigeonholed into a low aDot all the time box. Working as a full time starter in camp and preseason. |
| WR33 | DK Metcalf | How much time you got? | Geno Smith wins the job and is a steady enough hand to give DK enough catchable targets per game to allow his immense talent to shine. At a reduced cost of course. |
| WR34 | Tyler Lockett | See DK Metcalf | See DK Metcalf |
| WR35 | Adam Thielen | Targets could flatten out behind Jefferson if this offense is run verbatim like the Rams. Him and Cousins have long had green zone chemistry but if those looks start to get more so designed for Jefferson he may not have the TDs to prop up solid but not great volume. | Onlookers have said that Thielen looks to be in good shape. We haven’t heard a ton about his role but we know inherently he’ll get more free releases and space to work with. Talent has never been an issue so if he’s prioritized in this offense the upside is there. |
| WR36 | Amari Cooper | Officially without his starting QB for 11 games, where’s the upside compared to the WRs that surround him in adp? | He’s going to be an every down WR amongst a depth chart of players still trying to find their footing as pro’s. Target share should be no issue. For those who opt to build RB heavy early he could be a suitable target. |
| Tier 7-WR4 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR37 | Elijah Moore | Braxton Berrios currently running as the WR can be a bit worrisome. Elijah Moore will still be on the field obviously but Berrios is a slot only player who put together a few double digit target games. There is a chance this offense is mediocre at best and so we’ll need every bit of volume possible. | Moore has impressed many in training camp and looks to be option 1 in the passing game. Joe Flacco starting early gives me more optimism that the offense will be competent. |
| WR38 | Allen Lazard | Talent is nothing if the opportunity isn’t there but Lazard has been anointed as the head of this Packers passing game by adp and I’m not sure the talent or the situation warrants it. | Aaron Rodgers talking him up has to factor in somewhere here. There is no substantial competition in his way currently. I project a flatter distribution but if Arod trusts the guy who’s to say he won’t jump his competition. |
| WR39 | Devonta Smith | He now has AJ Brown to contend with, If the pass rate doesn’t rise his volume will be a problem. | As I stated with AJB, the Eagles have incentive to see what they have in Hurts as a thrower. That helps everyone in the passing game. |
| WR40 | Deandre Hopkins | Between the suspension and potential games needed to ramp back up, Hopkins could not be startable until halfway through the year. | Throwing Hopkins into the mix could give many fantasy teams a mid season boost. I’m not crazy about it at his current cost but there’s no doubt upside with him. |
| WR41 | Hunter Renfrow | Davante Adams’ presence will take food off of Renfrow’s proverbial plate. His 29% red zone target share most certainly won’t be replicated. | The Raiders will likely play faster and Renfrow will still be plenty involved. McDaniels’ offenses with the Patriots have a history of big production from players of his ilk. |
| WR42 | Brandon Aiyuk | Volume will be the question here…oh, and if Kyle Shanahan decides he doesn’t like him again. | Aiyuk is a great fit for what Trey Lance enhances in this offense outside the numbers and down the field. |
| WR43 | Drake London | There isn’t enough competence at QB. | A player I’ve describe as Vincent Jackson with more wiggle. London has the talent to make an impact tomorrow. He’s drafted in a range where I think more about the upside than the downside. |
| WR44 | Robert Woods | Ryan Tannehil slide in play in play was more about him than the absence of Derrick Henry. Woods game syncs well enough with Tannehil that I think the floor is fine but the ceiling may not be. | Early returns may not be great for Treylon Burks, pushing Woods into a lead role early on. He’s a great fit for this play action passing game. |
| WR45 | Chase Claypool | GEORGE PICKENS | Now being cast as a full time slot I’m interested to see what the plan is here. QB questions and Pickens’ emergence could slide Claypool to an attractive adp to play the variance game. |
| WR46 | Russell Gage | Julio Jones’ presence and Chris Godwin’s ahead of schedule health squashes any chances of Gage being a full time 3rd WR. | A potential adp overcorrection makes Gage a decent play. The financial commitment makes it very likely he’s still 3rd on the team in snaps at the position and if the Bucs opt for a pitch count early with Godwin he could carry higher early season appeal, |
| WR47 | Kenny Golladay | Camp buzz hasn’t been great. Golladay has never been a separator but he seems to be having an even harder time now. Is it the hip? Couple that with Daniel Jones’ lack of desire to push the ball downfield and we’ve got legit problems. | Even with the struggles it doesn’t sound like he’s in any danger of being benched (YET). The offensive direction should be light years better than last year and he’s still a talented catch point player. He’s volatile but his ceiling is far above his adp. |
| WR48 | Julio Jones | His role is just to small and specialized to trust playing without an injury ahead of him. | This is Julio Jones we’re talking about. I think he can still run and win at the catch point and he may finally land in a situation were he gets true opportunity in the green zone, A novel concept. Oh and if anybody misses games ahead of him, he’s an every week flex probably. |
| Tier 8 -WR5 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR49 | Chris Olave | The pass rate doesn’t rise and he’s closer to a field stretching bit player than he is a useful fantasy asset. | Olave is a talented, versatility WR prospect ready to contribute immediately. His outlook changes pretty substantially if the Saints open up their offense. |
| WR50 | Marquez Valdez Scantling | Never confused for his versatility. The other parts of his game don’t round out and ends up as a clear-out WR only whose spike weeks are impossible to predict. | He’s on a pseudo 3 year deal but the Chiefs did prioritize him. Outside of Kelce there are no no-brainers here. |
| WR51 | Devante Parker | So much offensive uncertainty coupled with a crowded room. It’s tough to have a great deaf of confidence in anybody in this passing game right now. | A talented catch point player. Parker’s skill set does standout from the rest of the room. He’s got as good a chance as anybody to be the #1 guy in NE. |
| WR52 | Jakobi Meyers | The offensive system is changing. The room is more crowded and I don’t nearly enough chatter about him from the people that cover the Patriots. | Tyquan Thornton’s recent injury removes an option in the short term. At his cost there’s rationale to throwing a risk/reward dart. |
| WR53 | George Pickens | He’s locked into the 3 WR sets but what about 2 WR sets? There’s also the QB questions. | Week 2 of the preseason seemed to suggest he’s the #2 WR. With Canada’s history of more multiple TE sets this could be a low key huge development for his target share. His talent is immense. |
| WR54 | Isaiah McKenzie | Jamison Crowder carves out a sub package role. | The Bills seem to be intentionally trying to get more explosive and McKenzie fits that bill. A full time slot role in one of the best offenses in football makes him appealing. |
| WR55 | Rondale Moore | A Charlie Brown aDot and potential for diminishing role once Hopkins returns. | Kingsbury has said he envisions Moore in the Christian Kirk role, which would be outstanding. The question would be if that’s his role even after Hopkins returns and Hollywood stays at the Z..or does Hollywood move inside once Hopkins returns? The ceiling outcome that he’s the full time slot the whole season makes him one of my favorite dart throws. |
| WR56 | Tyler Boyd | Stuck behind the best WR duo in the NFL, Boyd spends 2022 in the backseat again. | A higher pass rate would help. He becomes an every week flex if something happened to Chase or Higgins. |
| WR57 | Jahan Dotson | Wentz is too erratic to support anybody but McLaurin on a weekly basis. | Dotson looks to be locked into a near every down role to start the season. 1st round picks with guaranteed playing time should have more buzz than this, almost regardless the QB situation. |
| WR58 | Nico Collins | If the offense isn’t better and the team isn’t outright hunting targets for him he may end up just being fine for fantasy. | The hype train is picking up steam. His talent is pretty evident and he compliments Cooks’ playing style well. He also doesn’t have much target competition. Wheels up. |
| WR59 | Wan’dale Robinson | Toney continues his star turn and Golladay figures it out, pushing Wan’dale down the pecking order. Sterling Shepard just cleared. | Seems to have the starting slot role sewed up. A 100 target rookie campaign is possible. |
| WR60 | Michael Gallup | There’s always the risk that he’s brought along slowly. On the field he’s played a lot as a field stretching boundary guy with lower percentage looks. The loss of Tyron Smith could lower them even more. | Avoiding the PUP list was a welcome sight. Means he should return sometime before the first 4 weeks. The trade of Amari Cooper and Gallup’s 5 year extension should lead to an expanded role. |
| WR61 | Parris Campbell | Alec Pierce starts to make a move in 2 WR sets and the talk of more balance was just talk. | It’s clear this regime loves Parris Campbell. He’s been working as a starter in 2 WR sets and with the possibility of more balance I love taking Campbell late to see if the shift really happens. |
| WR62 | Romeo Doubs | You pay break out prices for the Packers 4th WR. | Doubs has been a training camp and preseason darling. Would anybody be shocked if parlays it into a regular role in 3 WR sets sometime soon? |
| WR63 | Jarvis Landry | The offense isn’t good enough nor balanced enough to for him to be more than a 4 catch 40 yard type guy weekly. | A flashback to the old Saints approach could make Landry a useful late round WR. |
| Tier 9 -WR6 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR64 | Treylon Burks | He’s a sub package player while trying to fine tune his game, making him a roster clog. | The news continues to be negative on him and eventually could drop his adp to a range where he’s worth the gamble. If he’s not a full time player you can’t cut bait without guilt. |
| WR65 | KJ Osborn | Irv Smith is made a priority, making Osborn a better in real football guy. | The “Cooper Kupp role” is a bit more spread out than it’s being made out to be. Even if it’s not, Osborn is now a full time starter who has shown flashes. |
| WR66 | Josh Palmer | Continues to be a role player without enough substance to his role to roster. | More deep throws and less multi TE sets. Recent buzz that he’ll be more involved. |
| WR67 | Skyy Moore | He seems to be the WR4 in KC at the moment. I expect him to get snaps weekly but for every week that he doesn’t eat into someone’s snaps is a week you’re in a holding pattern with him? | At some point this season he could ascend to full time duty in this offense. A Patrick Mahomes offense. Need I say more? |
| WR68 | KJ Hamler | The Broncos have talk up multiple TE’s this offseason. More 12 personnel spells bad news. | Tim Patrick’s injury opens up a real opportunity for him in 3 WR sets. His speed with Russ’ deep ball excellence could bare fruit. |
| WR69 | Sammy Watkins | Doubs ascension continues and Arod confidants Lazard and Cobb round out the trio. | Provided he’s damn near free I have no issue drafting Watkins and waiting to see how Week 1 pans out. |
| WR70 | Mecole Hardman | If Skyy Moore is gonna to leap someone, Hardman is probably the easiest target. | He’s never lived up to people’s lofty sleeper expectations and he’s limited as a player but he has made big plays. There’s value in that on some level. |
| WR71 | Garrett Wilson | Looks as though he’s the WR4 for the Jets right now. I expect that to change at some point but when? | If you have the room, taking a talented 1st round WR to wait and see what happens isn’t the worst strategy. |
| WR72 | Will Fuller | We’re both watching games this year. | He lands in Dallas or Green Bay, or someone else after an injury. |
| WR73 | Odell Beckham Jr | May have a long wait on your hands. | I think he’ll be super selective. I like his chances of ending up in a good environment with a good QB. |
| WR74 | Curtis Samuel | He’s behind McLaurin and a 1st round WR. Upside could be hard to come by. | They paid him handsomely and still seem to be invested in him. He’s such a threat with the ball in his hands and this coaching staff has a history of creativity with him going back to Carolina. |
| WR75 | Jamison Crowder | McKenzie doesn’t relinquish his grip of the slot role. | Mckenzie’s usage to this point had more to do with Crowder’s health and he operates at least in a split. |
| WR76 | Kendrick Bourne | Even without Tyquan Thornton we get more of a committee. | Pats beat writer Tom Curran opined about a potential Deebo Samuel-ish role with the team given his experience in the Shanahan/McVay system. |
Carey’s 2022 Fantasy RB Tiers
| RB | Risk | Reward | |
| Tier 1-Elite RB1 | |||
| RB1 | Christian McCaffrey | The offense isn’t good enough for him to threaten for double digit TDs. | As pointed out by Adam Levitan, his 5 full game pace from last year was higher than Jonathan Taylor’s. Scared money don’t what? |
| RB2 | Jonathan Taylor | A splash of negative TD regression, and a splash of increased freedom for the passing game makes that 1.01 consensus look a little cloudier | A higher passing rate just turns into more targets for Taylor, which hold greater value than a carry. We’re talking about an outlier talent so if anybody can just rip off a few 80 yard runs to remix the math it’s JT. |
| Tier 2-Near Elite RB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB3 | Dalvin Cook | Pure carries at risk and if Kevin O’Connell brings the Rams 2021 pass rate inside the 10 yard line with him, it obviously hurts scoring chances via the ground. | As pointed out by Rich Hribar…more 11 personnel = lighter boxes. Pace upgrade and more targets also figure to be in store. |
| RB4 | Austin Ekeler | The Chargers have given lesser talents than Isaiah Spiller legitimate roles in the backfield in year’s past. Was Ekeler’s GL role last year out of choice or necessity? | Offense and coaching staff completely intact and added a stud 1st round guard to an already good line. If his role remains the same he has one of the higher ceilings in fantasy. |
| Tier 3-High End RB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB5 | D’andre Swift | Added talent nips at his target share. Jamaal Williams’ presence becomes a little more annoying if so. | Continued good offensive vibes after the play calling change coupled with legitimate talent added to the passing game makes for an offensive environment in which not only does Swift get the desirable usage, he get’s to turn said usage into TDs |
| RB6 | Derrick Henry | Passing game usage reverts back to pre 2021 levels and there are too many weeks where he doesn’t rip off his trademark long runs. | The Titans are intentional about continuing to up his usage in the passing game. His 20 targets in 8 games last year are nothing to throw a party over but considering his career high for a season is 31, it’s something to monitor. He remains a cyborg on the ground. |
| RB7 | Joe Mixon | With an improved O-Line comes a higher pass rate, one that cuts into his green zone opportunities as a runner. Continued insistence of subbing him out on 3rd down cuts further into his work. | The run rate holds or doesn’t decrease drastically. Chase’s gravity get’s the Bengals the Cover 2 treatment, equaling softer run looks. Running behind said O-Line and in this offensive environment again puts double digit TDs on the table. |
| RB8 | Najee Harris | Whoever wins this QB job will have a livelier arm than late career Roethlisberger, likely equaling less opportunity in the passing game. Early buzz on the QB front creates doubt on the promise of the offense as whole. Less targets and a questionable offensive environment give me pause. | One of the rare 3 down workhorses in the league and as we know volume is king. The additions made to jump start their zone run game do just that and Harris finds his additional success in the inverse way compared to 2021. |
| RB9 | Aaron Jones | The Packers shift more to a ground and pound approach sans Davante Adams. AJ Dillon starts to grab a more decisive share of the work on the ground. | The pass game and the red zone offense essentially runs through Jones (We’ve all seen the splits w/o Davante). |
| RB10 | Alvin Kamara | His targets seem destined to take a hit but is it more decisive than we think? While I am lowkey excited about this offense I do have to acknowledge that they were the 19th ranked scoring offense, have at least mild O-Line questions and have a QB coming off a torn acl. | Pete Carmichael leans back into the roots of this Saints offense and the environment fosters more scoring chances. |
| Tier 4-High End RB2 w/RB1 potential | Risk | Reward | |
| RB11 | Leonard Fournette | The team decides to find touches for Rachaad White even if he’s not ready in pass pro or as a decision maker with the ball in his hand. | Fournette keeps a handle on majority of the backfield work, making his TD upside amongst the highest in the league. |
| RB12 | Saquon Barkley | His lateral movement and breakaway speed lose steam. The O-Line adds make the unit better but not truly difference making…putting a cap on scoring chances. | He returns to form physically and his role remains the 3 down variety. The new coaching staff improves the offense and maximizes where he gets his touches. Barkley is truly one of the biggest swings you can take in fantasy this year. |
| RB13 | James Conner | I love Conner this year so I struggle to find a risk other than the big picture one that WR’s are a lot safer historically in the range he’s going in drafts. | Eno Benjamin/Darrel Williams don’t take the full Chase Edmonds role leaving Conner to see even more passing game work and benefit from the gravity of Kyler Murray’s legs. |
| RB14 | Javonte Williams | The Broncos play as slow as the Packers do and Melvin Gordon gets too high a share of the high value touches. | A decisive share of the backfield work would give Javonte (Who I’m sure is somewhere breaking a tackle right now) one of the higher ceilings among backs this year. |
| RB15 | Nick Chubb | Brissett can’t do enough to keep the offense on schedule. Already not utilized in the passing game, Chubb’s upside can ill afford a shaky offensive environment. | Makes some sense as the last of the anchor RB’s if going WR or Kelce in the first. If Stefanski can keep the offense on schedule w/o Watson we know the level of pure runner that Chubb is. |
| Tier 5-Mid Tier RB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB16 | Ezekiel Elliott | The O-Line isn’t the slam dunk it used to be. Drafting a back in the “dead zone” that legit could run out of juice is not a comfortable proposition. | Pre-PCL Zeke wasn’t prime Barry Sanders but he did have value. He’ll do the dirty work and get goal line carries and red zone targets. All about how far he slides. |
| RB17 | Travis Etienne | James Robinson proves ready for an early season role and muddies the backfield. Especially if he’s used on 3rd down. | Brian Westbrook usage has been rumored. If so he had 3 seasons where he averaged 7 or more targets per game. Jackpot! |
| RB18 | Cam Akers | McVay bucks his trend under the circumstances and lightens Akers load in an attempt to keep him fresh. Using Darrell Williams as a change of pace and on 3rd down would seem like a natural way to do so. | His talent and surroundings warrant a top 30 pick but the injury questions push him into the “dead zone”. As pointed out by Lawrence Jackson Jr., the Rams under McVay have never seemed motivated to use a committee backfield. |
| RB19 | JK Dobbins | This comes down to unknowns. Will he start the season on a pitch count and if so how long? | If JK’s potential pitch count is short lived and he stands to jump to the front of the pecking order. His adp has already jumped back in a range I’m uncomfortable with but the upside is certainly there. |
| RB20 | Breece Hall | He plays a 2 down ish role on a questionable offense. How valuable is that? | He works into a more decisive share of the 3 down work, the offense makes strides |
| RB21 | David Montgomery | The Bears are on the short list for worst offense in the league. Montgomery likely needs last year’s volume to returning real value. Khalil Herbert has fans. | Montgomery holds off Herbert for workhorse status gets enough catches to combat efficiency and environment concerns. |
| RBB22 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | The Chiefs are testing limits with Isaiah Pacheco right now and Jerrick McKinnon gave them a jolt last year. Ronald Jones looks to be on thin ish ice right now but he was signed liked a priority (for non priority money). This backfield could be messy messy. | Rojo is cut loose, leaving CEH as the lone natural early down back. Pacheco or McKinnon for change of pace/3rd down but not both substantially. He’s at an ADP where if he slides just a smidge more he makes some sense in Hero RB builds. |
| RB23 | Miles Sanders | Well for one thing, Miles Sanders said not to draft him. Secondly, there has been talk of Kenneth Gainwell getting red zone work. Gainwell showed real promise last year when targeted in the pass game. Jordan Howard is also just one phone call away. | Miles Sanders should enter the season as the team’s early down runner and goal line back. Another player who could play half their snaps blindfolded and still score more TDs than he did last year based off opportunity. I like making a talent bet here where Sanders is going. |
| RB24 | Chase Edmonds | Edmonds was a priority for the Dolphins in free agency but they’ve since added to a crowded backfield. There’s a world where Michel cuts into goal line work and Mostert’s tantalizing speed and system familiarity gets him more usage than we’d prefer. | Despite the depth around him, Edmonds seems like the favorite for goal line work and 3rd down work. Those kind of high value touches mixed with the intrigue of what this offense could grow into make him one my favorite euro step “dead zone” targets . |
| RB25 | AJ Dillon | The overall numbers look ok but in 11 of Dillon’s 17 games last season he had 2 or fewer targets. With questions on the O-Line and at WR this offense probably won’t be as good as last year. Leaving the possibility of some empty calorie games if Dillon doesn’t get in the end zone. | Dillon led the team in carries last season and there’s a chance that the gap there is a more decisive one this year. Even with the concerns, an Arod lead offense won’t bottom out offensively, giving Dillon a chance to make hay in the green zone or just rip off long runs against a tired defense in the 4th qtr. if given the runway. |
| Tier 6-Low End RB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB26 | Tony Pollard | His adp is climbing to a point where the ideas we have about his usage as a pure receiver may need to become more of a necessity for him to hit value. | Last year usage holds, Dallas defense takes a step back and none of the ancillary receiving pieces take a leap, leaving Pollard opportunity in the passing game. |
| RB27 | Rhamondre Stevenson | Another potential big time adp climber. The backfield remains to muddied, talk of an expanded role in the passing game doesn’t come to fruition and Damien Harris remains ahead for early down and goal line duties. There’s also this bizarre offensive coaching situation to contend with. | A share of early down and 3rd down work make him appealing. A more decisive portion of either or both make him a priority RB2. |
| RB28 | Rashaad Penny | The team spent a high pick on Ken Walker. Both seemed to be boxed out of 3rd down work. Geno Smith didn’t really target early down RBs in any of his starts and this offense could be really bad. | Ken Walker’s health opens up an early season runway for Penny to dominate carries early. If he picks up where he left off last year he could regulate Walker to a handful of carries per game. If Seattle can find a way to be just good enough to give Penny some scoring chances he could be a quality asset outside of the “dead zone”. |
| RB29 | Damien Harris | He’s a solid yet unspectacular back whose on a deep depth chart where the rest of the group have cost control after this season. There’s also the weird offensive shift that could make his already difficult task of matching last years TDs even harder. | He remains the front end of the committee, the primary goal line back and the Pats figure out enough on offense to stay a respectable offense. With Rhamondre getting the buzz he is, drafting a potentially sliding Harris could return value. |
| RB30 | Dameon Pierce | ADP, ADP, ADP. We’re reaching a point where I wouldn’t be surprised if we start getting blurbs from his pee wee coaches talking him up. He looks to have a significant leg up for early down work but Marlon Mack could have a secondary role. If he does and Pierce is not at least getting a share of the 3rd down work his ceiling may not equal that of the hype. | I think this comes down to Rex Burkhead. He played well when called upon and is a trusted, steady hand. Pierce has shown upside as pass protector and pass catcher too though. A breakout could be incoming. |
| RB31 | Kareem Hunt | 11 games without Watson should equal less scoring chances. The weird “hold in” situation is not something I’m putting much stock in but it’s can’t be completely ignored. | If his normal role stays in tact he’s appealing. If the Browns play in more negative game scripts he’s more appealing. If he gets traded he’s mucho appealing. Sensing a trend here? |
| RB32 | Cordarrelle Patterson | Tyler Allgeier has drawn buzz as a potential lead back in this offense. Late career Matt Ryan may not have been at his MVP level of play but he was still a steady enough hand to keep the offense on respectable ground…the combo of Mariota/Ridder may not. | Drake London was the only substantial add to the Atlanta offense, making it likely they’ll hunt touches for C-Patt again this year…and with the Falcons pretty high up on the “down bad” scale, an ideal amount of those could come via targets. C-Patt is another target that makes the Hero RB strategy so attractive this year. |
| RB33 | Antonio Gibson | What’s the opposite of drum beat? The violin beat continues, he’s already boxed out of the 3rd down role and looks closer to being boxed out of the goal line and short yardage work. A sub package role can’t be ruled out at this point. | Bad blurb after bad blurb could drop Gibson into a worthwhile range. Still a chance Brian Robinson plays a Jaret Patterson plus role and Antonio Gibson talent prevails now that his umm…leg isn’t broken. |
| Tier 7-High End RB3 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB34 | James Cook | Early talk of Zach Moss making this backfield a 3 man group. I’ve long questioned the equivalence being made between what JD McKissic’s role would’ve been and what James Cook’s will be but what if it’s dead on? | A 2nd round RB in the actual NFL draft doesn’t =The modest 3rd down back deal of McKissic and the Bills have more plans for Cook. Even if Zach Moss is involved early I like taking shots on Cook. This team lacked explosion in the run game last year and the minute they get it they may not want to look back. |
| RB35 | James Robinson | The quick return to action begins with an extended pitch count. As we saw with Cam Akers, he may not be the same player early on coming of an Achilles injury. | He’s too good a football player to not play. Much more reliable between the tackles and brings it in pass pro. The avenue to lead the backfield in snaps at some point is there. |
| RB36 | Ken Walker | Early season injury as a rookie + talented runner in front of you = problems | Penny hasn’t been the picture of health and he is only on a 1 year deal. Walker’s injury is likely to cause an early season gap but if he returns early he’s got the talent to close it. Walker’s adp could slide into high end handcuff range, giving him some appeal. |
| Tier 8-Mid to Low End RB3 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB37 | Josh Jacobs | Zamir White early down nibbles turn to full on bites. Too many options as far as 3rd down backs. Antonio Gibson West but worse. | A trade. Unexpected trickle of early down targets. There’s a scenario where they opt not to push Zamir White too early, the offensive environment is better and Jacobs is just fine but it’s difficult to get excited at cost. |
| RB38 | Devin Singletary | James Cook was the obvious one but now it seems as though Zach Moss has gotten an invite to the party. If Moss is grabbing off his plate on early downs and at the goal line and Cook is grabbing off his plate on 3rd down, Singletary is gonna have a lot leaner meal. | Moss disappears from the rotation and Cook is purely a 3rd down compliment. It doesn’t match his late 2021 role but it does have appeal at cost. |
| RB39 | Melvin Gordon | Desire to have Javonte Williams lead this backfield leans him further to high end handcuff then standalone asset. | Something close to last year’s usage rolls over and Javonte does something to lose trust on 3rd down or in the red zone with raised expectations. |
| RB40 | Darrell Henderson | Moving up the premier handcuff ladder, Henderson could end up as a change of pace back only without a regular 3rd down role. A net loss at his rising adp. | McVay breaks character and opts for more of a split considering Akers is still coming off a fairly recent injury. A consistent 3rd down role and a handful of carries a game makes for good value. Any more of a split of early down work starts to ice the cake. |
| RB41 | Nyheim Hines | Pure 3rd down back without a significant added boost of the less mobile Matt Ryan checking down. Still holds value but the upside at cost isn’t great. | I mean, Frank Reich told us to draft him. More check downs and more throws in general would give us what we needed but if he’s legit finding schemed touch opportunities for him we could be looking at a steal. |
| RB42 | Tyler Allgeier | A 5th round rookie with unspectacular measurables who despite buzz has locked into the role people are projecting. Final cut downs could bring a short term upgrade. | He hasn’t jumped to the top of the depth chart yet but outside of C-Patt he’s not dealing with significant competition from a talent prospective. Provided they don’t add anyone he could easily find himself in the role Mike Davis played last year. |
| RB43 | Brian Robinson | Not to say any of what’s transpired with Antonio Gibson is “noise” but there is still a scenario where he’s the clear leader on early downs. | Becomes the primary short yardage early down and short yardage back on a more decisive level. |
| Tier 8-RB4 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB44 | Michael Carter | Breece Hall’s presence obviously blocks his early down potential but if he also cuts into his 3rd down this begins look more like we’re venturing into pure handcuff territory. | As pointed out by the great Matt Waldman, Carter’s skill set as a pass protector and pass catcher is superior to Hall at this stage. With Joe Flacco slated to start the season that probably takes on added importance. Recent talking of him leading the backfield. |
| RB45 | Jamaal Williams | Lots of empty calorie box scores as he doesn’t get a ton of the high value touches and he doesn’t break off long runs. | He goes very late in drafts and his weekly involvement gives you a floor. One of the better handcuffs you could ask for without the price markup. |
| RB46 | Alexander Mattison | The new coaching staff doesn’t view him as the no brainer 3 down handcuff that Zimmer did. | New staff, same role. |
| RB47 | Khalil Herbert | The buzz doesn’t lead to a role valuable enough to match up. | The team becomes less invested in impending free agent David Montgomery. Fit for zone running game the team is said to want to implement. Potentially valuable double digit round pick. |
| RB48 | Rachaad White | Pass pro and patience doesn’t improve and he winds up as a game day inactive or sparingly used backup. | He does carry solid draft capital and the team is aware of his flaws coming in. They may view him as too talented to keep off the field and find a way to get him touches in space. |
| RB49 | Kenneth Gainwell | With the way the Eagles have operated the last couple years we can never rule out a 4th back being added to this group. Also, a run heavy approach wouldn’t be great for Gainwell’s outlook either as his appeal as a pass catcher would take a hit. | The Eagles are a more balanced team leading to some pass catching opportunities for Gainwell. There is talk he’ll be used more in the redzone as well which would obviously be huge. |
| RB50 | Isaiah Pacheco | RoJo and Mckinnon both stick around. Sounds like he’ll have some level of role for sure but one of them being out would make me feel a little more secure. | Becomes the number 2 back and plays some on 3rd down. Could have fireworks with the creativity of Reid and Bienemy. |
| RB51 | Isaiah Spiller | ADP is reflecting the appeal of Spiller, clouding the value proposition. There is also the buzz that Joshua Kelley is running clearly ahead of him right now. While I don’t expect that to hold it does give me pause. | The most talented breather back the Chargers have had in recent seasons. They’ve given less talented players legitimate roles. Even Ekeler doesn’t want a workhorse load. |
| RB52 | Tyrion Davis-Price | It’s Kyle Shanahan so his role could range from healthy inactive to 80% of the RB touches. | The wide range of outcomes is what makes it appealing late. Especially because he’s not getting the same level of buzz he got a few weeks ago. With his running style and pass pro chops I could see him carving out a legit role. |
| Tier 9-RB5 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB53 | Eno Benjamin | Early buzz gets undone by preseason or early season struggles. Cards opt for the trustworthy vet in Darrel Williams or look elsewhere. | Early buzz leads to a Chase Edmond like role. |
| RB54 | Raheem Mostert | Mostert plays a pure change of pace role and struggles to find standalone value. | Mostert carves out an every week role and is the primary handcuff to Chase Edmonds OR the less likely but rosier projection…Mike McDaniel pulls his Shanahan-nigins and Mostert supplant Edmonds as the lead guy while Edmonds plays more of his Arizona role. |
| RB55 | Mark Ingram | Alvin Kamara looks unlikely to be suspended this season so that crosses off one selling point for Ingram. The team has flirted with veteran backs in recent weeks, was that to brace for a Kamara suspension or to add another look to the room? | Ingram still has gas in the tank and the team puts him in a role more reminiscent of his 1st tenure in New Orleans. |
| RB56 | Zamir White | Remains too many cooks in the kitchen. | Jumps or at least gets on equal footing as Jacobs as an early down hammer. Improving offense would give him ample GL chances. |
| RB57 | Jerrick McKinnon | ISAIAH PACHECO | The disinterest in a pass catching role for CEH continues and Pacheco isn’t ready on for 3rd down role. |
| RB58 | JD Mckissic | Nyheim Hines saw his targets per game drop from 4.75 to 3.35 going from Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz. | Mckissic falls through the cracks in drafts. He was never going to match his 2020 numbers last year because the playing wouldn’t be there but he was more efficient in 2021 and he does have a secure role. Could have some value if you’re trying to piece together your RB2/depth. |
| RB59 | Rex Burkhead | Texans show at least some level of trust in Pierce on 3rd downs. | Burkhead occupies a 3rd down plus role on a team that figures to trail a lot more than they lead. |
| RB60 | Ronald Jones | A release sounds squarely on the table for RoJo. | A release where he can latch on somewhere like Atlanta or Arizona might be best. There is a scenario, albeit unlikely where hangs around and the team sours on CEH on early downs. Am I just trying to hang on? |
| RB61 | Marlon Mack | The Pierce buzz is legitimate and Rex Burkhead gobbles up the 3rd down work. | Texans don’t hand the keys to Pierce from the outset. Mack shows some post injury juice in a 2 down role. |
| RB62 | Samaje Perine | Chris Evans jumps him for the 3rd down role (please) | Coaches often go trust over talent. Perine stays in the trust tree. |
| RB63 | Jaylen Warren | Anthony Mcfarland jumps him at some point or makes it a committee if Najee misses time. | Looks like he’s jumped Benny Snell for the RB2 role. |
| RB64 | Ameer Abdullah | Drake is out of the picture but other 3rd down options still in house | Keeps hold of the 3rd down role…a spot that has carried annual value in McDaniels’ offenses. |
| RB65 | Zach Moss | This 3 back committee talk is a mirage or it starts off that way and James Cook give the backfield too much juice to split 3 ways. | He’s seemingly worked himself back into the picture. If Moss can get change of pace and goal line role he was initially ticketed for as a rookie he’s got appeal. |
| RB66 | Gus Edwards | The Ravens have been very non committal with his timeline for return. Depending on what the plan is to ramp him back up once he does come off the pup list, you could be clogging up a roster spot for a few weeks or more. | Because he’s on the pup list you should be able to place him on IR. You can draft him very late or pick him up post draft at this point. If he returns to his role of the past at some point this season you’re getting a 9th round value for free. |
| RB67 | Dontrel Hilliard | Not a high volume target role to begin with…Henry siphons off a little. | Primary 3rd down back and Hassan Haskins doesn’t look ready to be an early down contributor yet. |
| RB68 | Chris Evans | Perine remains ole reliable for the coaching staff. | Evans leaps him for a 3rd down role. Gets into that upper handcuff tier. |
| RB69 | Donta Foreman | Clogs roster for only a split role if CMC goes down. | Plays a grinder short yardage role behind CMC and Rhule makes it clear he’s fighting for his head coaching job one carry at a time. |
| RB70 | Ke’Shawn Vaughn | Rachaad White’s pass pro and decision making as a runner takes strides…or they just view him as player too talented in space to shelve. | A favorite dart throw RB of mine. Much more stylistically inclined to fit as a runner behind Fournette. |
| RB71 | Matt Breida | The most talented backup RB they have now but maybe that changes after cut downs. | Carves out a change of pace role and becomes Saquon’s primary handcuff |
| RB72 | Benny Snell | Anthony McFarland, probably the most talented backup on the roster, jumps him in the pecking order | Remains the primary backup/handcuff |
| RB73 | Dernest Johnson | Nothing happens with Hunt and you’re clogging a roster spot. | Hunt is moved and now you have a premier handcuff for free. |
Carey’s 2022 Fantasy QB Tiers
| Tier 1-Elite QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB1 | Josh Allen | New OC opts to run the football a little more. The Bills did add a 2nd round RB, signed a blocking TE and have the highest projected win total in the AFC. | Pass rate holds and added juice (Cook, Gabe D and McKenzie in expanded roles) leads to more big plays. |
| QB2 | Lamar Jackson | OL adds don’t stabilize the unit. WR2 becomes worrisome. | Clean pocket + game breaking ability = QB1 Overall potential |
| QB3 | Kyler Murray | Pass offense continues to show limitations. Dhop to miss first 6 games. | Downfield connection w/Hollywood re-establishes. Rondale Moore role grows. Another player with QB1 overall upside. |
| QB4 | Patrick Mahomes | Predominant 2 high safety looks continue and the Chiefs get intentional about a move towards a smidge more balance. | Improved offenses within the division matched with a Chiefs defense that should take a step back could make the shoot outs flow |
| QB5 | Justin Herbert | Significant defensive upgrades coupled with the best breather back they’ve had in recent years in Spiller could mean they take their foot off the gas more often. | Top 5 OL in adjusted sack rate added a 1st round Guard. Hopefully influences already attractive pass rate to include more deep shots. |
| Tier 2-High End QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB6 | Jalen Hurts | His ability to win from the pocket doesn’t progress and he’s not buoyed by rushing TDs. Rushing will make him viable regardless but with higher ADP comes higher expectations. | 2021’s original plan of running their offense through Hurts comes to fruition…this time more efficiently with AJ Brown in the fold and behind a standout O-Line |
| QB7 | Tom Brady | Father time takes his biggest swing and finally connects. | Stocked with weapons galore, Brady keeps full autonomy of the offenses direction…P.S. He will |
| QB8 | Russell Wilson | The Broncos play slow and his already declining rushing production goes from a brisk walk to a crawl. | Operation #LetRussCook becomes more than just a tag line |
| QB9 | Trey Lance | He’s erratic as a passer and the 49ers move towards a run rate that would cap his ceiling unless he’s especially efficient in the redzone or gets a large share of big plays. | He has enough freedom within the offense to maximize his arm talent and off script upside. Closest thing we have to a LRQB with league winning upside. |
| Tier 3-Potential High End QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB10 | Joe Burrow | ADP jump from last year makes it harder for him to return value. No guarantee that pass rate jumps. Tough fantasy playoff schedule and little rushing upside as pointed out by Rich Hribar. | O-Line reinforcements lead Zac Taylor to raise the Bengals middling pass rate numbers. Burrow could put up silly numbers if they just totally cut him loose. |
| QB11 | Dak Prescott | The rushing attempts don’t return, Gallup’s return is drawn out and an O-Line suddenly with questions doesn’t have enough answers. | Hamstring issues are behind him and the promise of more rush attempts comes to fruition. CeeDee Lamb jumps into superstardom, Jalen Tolbert proves snap worthy |
| QB12 | Matt Stafford | A lot of the same concerns as Burrow…and, well..the elbow. Do they subtlety take pass attempts off his plate throughout the year? | Pass rate in the redzone holds, overall pass rate raises as they contend with the NFL’s 2nd hardest schedule per Sharp Football. |
| Tier 4-Potential QB1’s | Risk | Reward | |
| QB13 | Derek Carr | Brandon Thorn’s 27th ranked O-Line doesn’t allow for consistent intermediate and deep passing success. Necessitating a more quick hitting, conservative script w/more runs. | Josh McDaniels brings back the league leading pace from his days with Tom Brady. Davante Adams improves their redzone efficiency. Combining that with the strength of the division and the pass attempts should be plentiful. |
| QB14 | Kirk Cousins | As efficient as he was last year he still “only” got to QB11 in ppg…which is fine but if you’re trying to win your league we need more. More plays/volume will be a must. | Transitioning from the fun opposed Mike Zimmer. Cousins has one of the better cast of skill players in the league and should see increased pace. Breaking into the 3rd tier is not out of the question. |
| QB15 | Aaron Rodgers | No Adams, O-Line questions, an already slow paced team and an emerging defense sound like the ingredients to run the ball soup. | If anybody can efficiently throw for 40 TDs despite all this it’s Arod. |
| Tier 5-Priority LRQB | Risk | Reward | |
| QB16 | Justin Fields | Talks of a run first approach coupled with a questionable O-Line and set of weapons lead to an environment too negative to bare fruit. | His legs, big arm and hopefully a more QB friendly script make the offense effective enough for him to tap into his promise as the highest upside double digit round QB. |
| QB17 | Trevor Lawrence | While the team made clear improvements to their pass catchers, they didn’t add anything close to a blue chipper. Hard to see them not improving but there’s a chance the numbers are closer to pedestrian than breakout. | A once in a decade QB prospect looks like it with competent coaching. |
| Tier 6-High to Mid QB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB18 | Daniel Jones | It wasn’t the lack of stability around him, it was him. He doesn’t get through the year as starter. | The massive coaching upgrade does the trick. He has the weapons, an improved O-Line, rushing potential and optimal offensive approach to score fantasy points. |
| QB19 | Tua Tagovailoa | The limitations of the pass offense last year are more on Tua than the past coaching…leading to less and less balance. | Mcdaniel brings the design, Tyreek and company bring the yac magic. The pocket poise he flashed at Alabama allows for a smoother transition than many expect. |
| QB20 | Jared Goff | Never known as an elevator of talent, doesn’t add rushing production. Good TD to Int ratio in the red zone but less than half the attempts Tom Brady had in that part of the field last year. | A healthy skill group with explosive new additions give him a chance to be the distributor he was for the Rams. Pass rate at least holds and he gains a little red zone freedom. |
| QB21 | Mac Jones | Even though BB locked up McVay’s offense in the Super Bowl he couldn’t piece together enough of his rehires to run it effectively for his own team. The Shanahan’s out of 2nd cousins? | Still void of true table setters on offense but they have made upgrades. Reportedly the Pats hope for an easier to digest offense, hopefully it’s one that flows more through Jones. The pathway to surprise is there. |
| QB22 | Jameis Winston | Pass rates resemble last year. Michael Thomas doesn’t resemble his pre injury self. | Talk of a more spread, aggressive passing offense comes through. Jameis with deep passing freedom has always equaled an intriguing ceiling. |
| QB23 | Carson Wentz | Bad Carson makes him barely bye week worthy | A good group of skill players and a more than solid coordinator tap into good Carson. He still has some mobility and downfield throwing ability. Factors that could unearth fantasy production, |
| Tier 7-Low End QB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB24 | Ryan Tannehill | Worst weapons of his Titans tenure accelerate his decline. The gravity of Malik Willis’ athleticism starts to look appealing. | Tannehil has a 104.7 career passer rating with Derrick Henry. The pure stats won’t be gaudy but if Henry stays healthy he could return solid QB value. |
| QB25 | Davis Mills | Dameon Pierce hot guy summer extends it’s way to the fall…allows the Texans to hang in a few more games and they don’t have to push the envelope in the passing game as much. Mills in turn gives you the floor performances you’d rather just stream for. | The NFL’s 5th hardest schedule per Sharp Football and a roster that still needs some talent infusions to truly compete could lead to a healthy amount of pass attempts. |
| QB26 | Matt Ryan | There are some Philip Rivers 2020 caretaker vibes here. The preseason talk of balance becomes just that and we get efficient but pedestrian fantasy performances. | Nyheim Hines is actually a thing. So is Mo Alie-Cox (You heard it here first). It’s still Jonathan Taylor’s offense but maybe pass attempts inside the 20 raise with a steadier hand at QB. Upside still probably tops out as a QB2. |
| Tier 8-Watchlist | Risk | Reward | |
| QB27 | Marcus Mariota | The season gets away from the Falcons and his play is strong to not get a look at Desmond Ridder before they have to make a 2023 QB decision. | Mobility, play action, a couple high end young pass catchers and negative game script lead to some useful box score games. Kinda wanna slide him into tier 7. |
| QB28 | Baker Mayfield | Last year’s struggles were more about his flaws than his shoulder. With Rhule on the hotseat the patience isn’t there and he’s pulled in season. | He brings stability to a position, the O-Line additions prove to be legit and Ben McAdoo is able to implement the tempo he utilized in previous spots. If the team isn’t looking to be completely run obsessed sans Joe Brady, Baker could put together some QB2 appeal. |
| QB29 | Kenny Pickett | He’s not named the opening game starter and Trubisky plays well enough up until their bye to hold him off. | Pickett seems to be gaining steam late in the process. He’s got plenty of skill position weapons and a scheme conducive with creating free releases and allowing a QB to distribute. |
| QB30 | Zach Wilson | Continued uneven play. Considering the investment I don’t think he’d lose his job but we can’t say it with 100% certainty. | The Jets should have the best O-Line they’ve had in a while. You can say the same thing for their skill group as well. Wilson has rushing upside and was an aggressive thrower in college. |
| QB31 | Mitchell Trubisky | 1st rounder Kenny Pickett progresses and takes over the job in season | Armed with a very good cast of skill players, Trubisky efficiently distributes the ball to his playmakers and adds 30 ish rushing yards per game. |
| QB32 | Deshaun Watson | 11 games is a long time to hold anybody, even if they are a difference maker. | You have a bench deep enough to stash him. Not recommended for standard 15-16 man rosters. |
| QB33 | Geno Smith | The Seahawks opt to crawl even deeper into the cave, pass attempts are few and far between. | The plan to establish it at all costs are nixed because the team isn’t good enough to play ball control. Geno get’s his shot at a few QB2 performances in come from behind mode. |
| QB34 | Jacoby Brissett | He’s tasked with being a caretaker in a run centric offense and he doesn’t have enough green zone equity to challenge for QB2 status. | The team keeps their plan of a more spread/balance approach despite the Watson suspension. He gets a chance at a couple QB2 ish performances in. |
| QB34 | Joe Flacco | He clogs up an early season roster spot with non useable performances. | Zach Wilson’s recovery goes a little longer than expected and Flacco plays too well to send back to the bench. Even if Joe balls out this is unlikely due to the draft capital invested but it’s a non zero chance. |
| QB35 | Jimmy Garoppolo | Nobody feels comfortable enough with his health and the 49ers don’t release him. | A QB goes down elsewhere and spurs a trade to better spot than we currently anticipate or he’s granted his release outright and lands in Seattle. |
| QB36 | Malik Willis | Roster clog | Titans start slow and look for a jolt of athleticism. Deep stash in 2 QB/superflex. |
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