| Tier 1-Elite QB1 | Risk | Reward |
| QB1 | Josh Allen | New OC opts to run the football a little more. The Bills did add a 2nd round RB, signed a blocking TE and have the highest projected win total in the AFC. | Pass rate holds and added juice (Cook, Gabe D and McKenzie in expanded roles) leads to more big plays. |
| QB2 | Lamar Jackson | OL adds don’t stabilize the unit. WR2 becomes worrisome. | Clean pocket + game breaking ability = QB1 Overall potential |
| QB3 | Kyler Murray | Pass offense continues to show limitations. Dhop to miss first 6 games. | Downfield connection w/Hollywood re-establishes. Rondale Moore role grows. Another player with QB1 overall upside. |
| QB4 | Patrick Mahomes | Predominant 2 high safety looks continue and the Chiefs get intentional about a move towards a smidge more balance. | Improved offenses within the division matched with a Chiefs defense that should take a step back could make the shoot outs flow |
| QB5 | Justin Herbert | Significant defensive upgrades coupled with the best breather back they’ve had in recent years in Spiller could mean they take their foot off the gas more often. | Top 5 OL in adjusted sack rate added a 1st round Guard. Hopefully influences already attractive pass rate to include more deep shots. |
| Tier 2-High End QB1 | Risk | Reward |
| QB6 | Jalen Hurts | His ability to win from the pocket doesn’t progress and he’s not buoyed by rushing TDs. Rushing will make him viable regardless but with higher ADP comes higher expectations. | 2021’s original plan of running their offense through Hurts comes to fruition…this time more efficiently with AJ Brown in the fold and behind a standout O-Line |
| QB7 | Tom Brady | Father time takes his biggest swing and finally connects. | Stocked with weapons galore, Brady keeps full autonomy of the offenses direction…P.S. He will |
| QB8 | Russell Wilson | The Broncos play slow and his already declining rushing production goes from a brisk walk to a crawl. | Operation #LetRussCook becomes more than just a tag line |
| QB9 | Trey Lance | He’s erratic as a passer and the 49ers move towards a run rate that would cap his ceiling unless he’s especially efficient in the redzone or gets a large share of big plays. | He has enough freedom within the offense to maximize his arm talent and off script upside. Closest thing we have to a LRQB with league winning upside. |
| Tier 3-Potential High End QB1 | Risk | Reward |
| QB10 | Joe Burrow | ADP jump from last year makes it harder for him to return value. No guarantee that pass rate jumps. Tough fantasy playoff schedule and little rushing upside as pointed out by Rich Hribar. | O-Line reinforcements lead Zac Taylor to raise the Bengals middling pass rate numbers. Burrow could put up silly numbers if they just totally cut him loose. |
| QB11 | Dak Prescott | The rushing attempts don’t return, Gallup’s return is drawn out and an O-Line suddenly with questions doesn’t have enough answers. | Hamstring issues are behind him and the promise of more rush attempts comes to fruition. CeeDee Lamb jumps into superstardom, Jalen Tolbert proves snap worthy |
| QB12 | Matt Stafford | A lot of the same concerns as Burrow…and, well..the elbow. Do they subtlety take pass attempts off his plate throughout the year? | Pass rate in the redzone holds, overall pass rate raises as they contend with the NFL’s 2nd hardest schedule per Sharp Football. |
| Tier 4-Potential QB1’s | Risk | Reward |
| QB13 | Derek Carr | Brandon Thorn’s 27th ranked O-Line doesn’t allow for consistent intermediate and deep passing success. Necessitating a more quick hitting, conservative script w/more runs. | Josh McDaniels brings back the league leading pace from his days with Tom Brady. Davante Adams improves their redzone efficiency. Combining that with the strength of the division and the pass attempts should be plentiful. |
| QB14 | Kirk Cousins | As efficient as he was last year he still “only” got to QB11 in ppg…which is fine but if you’re trying to win your league we need more. More plays/volume will be a must. | Transitioning from the fun opposed Mike Zimmer. Cousins has one of the better cast of skill players in the league and should see increased pace. Breaking into the 3rd tier is not out of the question. |
| QB15 | Aaron Rodgers | No Adams, O-Line questions, an already slow paced team and an emerging defense sound like the ingredients to run the ball soup. | If anybody can efficiently throw for 40 TDs despite all this it’s Arod. |
| Tier 5-Priority LRQB | Risk | Reward |
| QB16 | Justin Fields | Talks of a run first approach coupled with a questionable O-Line and set of weapons lead to an environment too negative to bare fruit. | His legs, big arm and hopefully a more QB friendly script make the offense effective enough for him to tap into his promise as the highest upside double digit round QB. |
| QB17 | Trevor Lawrence | While the team made clear improvements to their pass catchers, they didn’t add anything close to a blue chipper. Hard to see them not improving but there’s a chance the numbers are closer to pedestrian than breakout. | A once in a decade QB prospect looks like it with competent coaching. |
| Tier 6-High to Mid QB2 | Risk | Reward |
| QB18 | Daniel Jones | It wasn’t the lack of stability around him, it was him. He doesn’t get through the year as starter. | The massive coaching upgrade does the trick. He has the weapons, an improved O-Line, rushing potential and optimal offensive approach to score fantasy points. |
| QB19 | Tua Tagovailoa | The limitations of the pass offense last year are more on Tua than the past coaching…leading to less and less balance. | Mcdaniel brings the design, Tyreek and company bring the yac magic. The pocket poise he flashed at Alabama allows for a smoother transition than many expect. |
| QB20 | Jared Goff | Never known as an elevator of talent, doesn’t add rushing production. Good TD to Int ratio in the red zone but less than half the attempts Tom Brady had in that part of the field last year. | A healthy skill group with explosive new additions give him a chance to be the distributor he was for the Rams. Pass rate at least holds and he gains a little red zone freedom. |
| QB21 | Mac Jones | Even though BB locked up McVay’s offense in the Super Bowl he couldn’t piece together enough of his rehires to run it effectively for his own team. The Shanahan’s out of 2nd cousins? | Still void of true table setters on offense but they have made upgrades. Reportedly the Pats hope for an easier to digest offense, hopefully it’s one that flows more through Jones. The pathway to surprise is there. |
| QB22 | Jameis Winston | Pass rates resemble last year. Michael Thomas doesn’t resemble his pre injury self. | Talk of a more spread, aggressive passing offense comes through. Jameis with deep passing freedom has always equaled an intriguing ceiling. |
| QB23 | Carson Wentz | Bad Carson makes him barely bye week worthy | A good group of skill players and a more than solid coordinator tap into good Carson. He still has some mobility and downfield throwing ability. Factors that could unearth fantasy production, |
| Tier 7-Low End QB2 | Risk | Reward |
| QB24 | Ryan Tannehill | Worst weapons of his Titans tenure accelerate his decline. The gravity of Malik Willis’ athleticism starts to look appealing. | Tannehil has a 104.7 career passer rating with Derrick Henry. The pure stats won’t be gaudy but if Henry stays healthy he could return solid QB value. |
| QB25 | Davis Mills | Dameon Pierce hot guy summer extends it’s way to the fall…allows the Texans to hang in a few more games and they don’t have to push the envelope in the passing game as much. Mills in turn gives you the floor performances you’d rather just stream for. | The NFL’s 5th hardest schedule per Sharp Football and a roster that still needs some talent infusions to truly compete could lead to a healthy amount of pass attempts. |
| QB26 | Matt Ryan | There are some Philip Rivers 2020 caretaker vibes here. The preseason talk of balance becomes just that and we get efficient but pedestrian fantasy performances. | Nyheim Hines is actually a thing. So is Mo Alie-Cox (You heard it here first). It’s still Jonathan Taylor’s offense but maybe pass attempts inside the 20 raise with a steadier hand at QB. Upside still probably tops out as a QB2. |
| Tier 8-Watchlist | Risk | Reward |
| QB27 | Marcus Mariota | The season gets away from the Falcons and his play is strong to not get a look at Desmond Ridder before they have to make a 2023 QB decision. | Mobility, play action, a couple high end young pass catchers and negative game script lead to some useful box score games. Kinda wanna slide him into tier 7. |
| QB28 | Baker Mayfield | Last year’s struggles were more about his flaws than his shoulder. With Rhule on the hotseat the patience isn’t there and he’s pulled in season. | He brings stability to a position, the O-Line additions prove to be legit and Ben McAdoo is able to implement the tempo he utilized in previous spots. If the team isn’t looking to be completely run obsessed sans Joe Brady, Baker could put together some QB2 appeal. |
| QB29 | Kenny Pickett | He’s not named the opening game starter and Trubisky plays well enough up until their bye to hold him off. | Pickett seems to be gaining steam late in the process. He’s got plenty of skill position weapons and a scheme conducive with creating free releases and allowing a QB to distribute. |
| QB30 | Zach Wilson | Continued uneven play. Considering the investment I don’t think he’d lose his job but we can’t say it with 100% certainty. | The Jets should have the best O-Line they’ve had in a while. You can say the same thing for their skill group as well. Wilson has rushing upside and was an aggressive thrower in college. |
| QB31 | Mitchell Trubisky | 1st rounder Kenny Pickett progresses and takes over the job in season | Armed with a very good cast of skill players, Trubisky efficiently distributes the ball to his playmakers and adds 30 ish rushing yards per game. |
| QB32 | Deshaun Watson | 11 games is a long time to hold anybody, even if they are a difference maker. | You have a bench deep enough to stash him. Not recommended for standard 15-16 man rosters. |
| QB33 | Geno Smith | The Seahawks opt to crawl even deeper into the cave, pass attempts are few and far between. | The plan to establish it at all costs are nixed because the team isn’t good enough to play ball control. Geno get’s his shot at a few QB2 performances in come from behind mode. |
| QB34 | Jacoby Brissett | He’s tasked with being a caretaker in a run centric offense and he doesn’t have enough green zone equity to challenge for QB2 status. | The team keeps their plan of a more spread/balance approach despite the Watson suspension. He gets a chance at a couple QB2 ish performances in. |
| QB34 | Joe Flacco | He clogs up an early season roster spot with non useable performances. | Zach Wilson’s recovery goes a little longer than expected and Flacco plays too well to send back to the bench. Even if Joe balls out this is unlikely due to the draft capital invested but it’s a non zero chance. |
| QB35 | Jimmy Garoppolo | Nobody feels comfortable enough with his health and the 49ers don’t release him. | A QB goes down elsewhere and spurs a trade to better spot than we currently anticipate or he’s granted his release outright and lands in Seattle. |
| QB36 | Malik Willis | Roster clog | Titans start slow and look for a jolt of athleticism. Deep stash in 2 QB/superflex. |
DeepCoverPod Blog 