| RB | Risk | Reward |
| Tier 1-Elite RB1 | | |
| RB1 | Christian McCaffrey | The offense isn’t good enough for him to threaten for double digit TDs. | As pointed out by Adam Levitan, his 5 full game pace from last year was higher than Jonathan Taylor’s. Scared money don’t what? |
| RB2 | Jonathan Taylor | A splash of negative TD regression, and a splash of increased freedom for the passing game makes that 1.01 consensus look a little cloudier | A higher passing rate just turns into more targets for Taylor, which hold greater value than a carry. We’re talking about an outlier talent so if anybody can just rip off a few 80 yard runs to remix the math it’s JT. |
| Tier 2-Near Elite RB1 | Risk | Reward |
| RB3 | Dalvin Cook | Pure carries at risk and if Kevin O’Connell brings the Rams 2021 pass rate inside the 10 yard line with him, it obviously hurts scoring chances via the ground. | As pointed out by Rich Hribar…more 11 personnel = lighter boxes. Pace upgrade and more targets also figure to be in store. |
| RB4 | Austin Ekeler | The Chargers have given lesser talents than Isaiah Spiller legitimate roles in the backfield in year’s past. Was Ekeler’s GL role last year out of choice or necessity? | Offense and coaching staff completely intact and added a stud 1st round guard to an already good line. If his role remains the same he has one of the higher ceilings in fantasy. |
| Tier 3-High End RB1 | Risk | Reward |
| RB5 | D’andre Swift | Added talent nips at his target share. Jamaal Williams’ presence becomes a little more annoying if so. | Continued good offensive vibes after the play calling change coupled with legitimate talent added to the passing game makes for an offensive environment in which not only does Swift get the desirable usage, he get’s to turn said usage into TDs |
| RB6 | Derrick Henry | Passing game usage reverts back to pre 2021 levels and there are too many weeks where he doesn’t rip off his trademark long runs. | The Titans are intentional about continuing to up his usage in the passing game. His 20 targets in 8 games last year are nothing to throw a party over but considering his career high for a season is 31, it’s something to monitor. He remains a cyborg on the ground. |
| RB7 | Joe Mixon | With an improved O-Line comes a higher pass rate, one that cuts into his green zone opportunities as a runner. Continued insistence of subbing him out on 3rd down cuts further into his work. | The run rate holds or doesn’t decrease drastically. Chase’s gravity get’s the Bengals the Cover 2 treatment, equaling softer run looks. Running behind said O-Line and in this offensive environment again puts double digit TDs on the table. |
| RB8 | Najee Harris | Whoever wins this QB job will have a livelier arm than late career Roethlisberger, likely equaling less opportunity in the passing game. Early buzz on the QB front creates doubt on the promise of the offense as whole. Less targets and a questionable offensive environment give me pause. | One of the rare 3 down workhorses in the league and as we know volume is king. The additions made to jump start their zone run game do just that and Harris finds his additional success in the inverse way compared to 2021. |
| RB9 | Aaron Jones | The Packers shift more to a ground and pound approach sans Davante Adams. AJ Dillon starts to grab a more decisive share of the work on the ground. | The pass game and the red zone offense essentially runs through Jones (We’ve all seen the splits w/o Davante). |
| RB10 | Alvin Kamara | His targets seem destined to take a hit but is it more decisive than we think? While I am lowkey excited about this offense I do have to acknowledge that they were the 19th ranked scoring offense, have at least mild O-Line questions and have a QB coming off a torn acl. | Pete Carmichael leans back into the roots of this Saints offense and the environment fosters more scoring chances. |
| Tier 4-High End RB2 w/RB1 potential | Risk | Reward |
| RB11 | Leonard Fournette | The team decides to find touches for Rachaad White even if he’s not ready in pass pro or as a decision maker with the ball in his hand. | Fournette keeps a handle on majority of the backfield work, making his TD upside amongst the highest in the league. |
| RB12 | Saquon Barkley | His lateral movement and breakaway speed lose steam. The O-Line adds make the unit better but not truly difference making…putting a cap on scoring chances. | He returns to form physically and his role remains the 3 down variety. The new coaching staff improves the offense and maximizes where he gets his touches. Barkley is truly one of the biggest swings you can take in fantasy this year. |
| RB13 | James Conner | I love Conner this year so I struggle to find a risk other than the big picture one that WR’s are a lot safer historically in the range he’s going in drafts. | Eno Benjamin/Darrel Williams don’t take the full Chase Edmonds role leaving Conner to see even more passing game work and benefit from the gravity of Kyler Murray’s legs. |
| RB14 | Javonte Williams | The Broncos play as slow as the Packers do and Melvin Gordon gets too high a share of the high value touches. | A decisive share of the backfield work would give Javonte (Who I’m sure is somewhere breaking a tackle right now) one of the higher ceilings among backs this year. |
| RB15 | Nick Chubb | Brissett can’t do enough to keep the offense on schedule. Already not utilized in the passing game, Chubb’s upside can ill afford a shaky offensive environment. | Makes some sense as the last of the anchor RB’s if going WR or Kelce in the first. If Stefanski can keep the offense on schedule w/o Watson we know the level of pure runner that Chubb is. |
| Tier 5-Mid Tier RB2 | Risk | Reward |
| RB16 | Ezekiel Elliott | The O-Line isn’t the slam dunk it used to be. Drafting a back in the “dead zone” that legit could run out of juice is not a comfortable proposition. | Pre-PCL Zeke wasn’t prime Barry Sanders but he did have value. He’ll do the dirty work and get goal line carries and red zone targets. All about how far he slides. |
| RB17 | Travis Etienne | James Robinson proves ready for an early season role and muddies the backfield. Especially if he’s used on 3rd down. | Brian Westbrook usage has been rumored. If so he had 3 seasons where he averaged 7 or more targets per game. Jackpot! |
| RB18 | Cam Akers | McVay bucks his trend under the circumstances and lightens Akers load in an attempt to keep him fresh. Using Darrell Williams as a change of pace and on 3rd down would seem like a natural way to do so. | His talent and surroundings warrant a top 30 pick but the injury questions push him into the “dead zone”. As pointed out by Lawrence Jackson Jr., the Rams under McVay have never seemed motivated to use a committee backfield. |
| RB19 | JK Dobbins | This comes down to unknowns. Will he start the season on a pitch count and if so how long? | If JK’s potential pitch count is short lived and he stands to jump to the front of the pecking order. His adp has already jumped back in a range I’m uncomfortable with but the upside is certainly there. |
| RB20 | Breece Hall | He plays a 2 down ish role on a questionable offense. How valuable is that? | He works into a more decisive share of the 3 down work, the offense makes strides |
| RB21 | David Montgomery | The Bears are on the short list for worst offense in the league. Montgomery likely needs last year’s volume to returning real value. Khalil Herbert has fans. | Montgomery holds off Herbert for workhorse status gets enough catches to combat efficiency and environment concerns. |
| RBB22 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | The Chiefs are testing limits with Isaiah Pacheco right now and Jerrick McKinnon gave them a jolt last year. Ronald Jones looks to be on thin ish ice right now but he was signed liked a priority (for non priority money). This backfield could be messy messy. | Rojo is cut loose, leaving CEH as the lone natural early down back. Pacheco or McKinnon for change of pace/3rd down but not both substantially. He’s at an ADP where if he slides just a smidge more he makes some sense in Hero RB builds. |
| RB23 | Miles Sanders | Well for one thing, Miles Sanders said not to draft him. Secondly, there has been talk of Kenneth Gainwell getting red zone work. Gainwell showed real promise last year when targeted in the pass game. Jordan Howard is also just one phone call away. | Miles Sanders should enter the season as the team’s early down runner and goal line back. Another player who could play half their snaps blindfolded and still score more TDs than he did last year based off opportunity. I like making a talent bet here where Sanders is going. |
| RB24 | Chase Edmonds | Edmonds was a priority for the Dolphins in free agency but they’ve since added to a crowded backfield. There’s a world where Michel cuts into goal line work and Mostert’s tantalizing speed and system familiarity gets him more usage than we’d prefer. | Despite the depth around him, Edmonds seems like the favorite for goal line work and 3rd down work. Those kind of high value touches mixed with the intrigue of what this offense could grow into make him one my favorite euro step “dead zone” targets . |
| RB25 | AJ Dillon | The overall numbers look ok but in 11 of Dillon’s 17 games last season he had 2 or fewer targets. With questions on the O-Line and at WR this offense probably won’t be as good as last year. Leaving the possibility of some empty calorie games if Dillon doesn’t get in the end zone. | Dillon led the team in carries last season and there’s a chance that the gap there is a more decisive one this year. Even with the concerns, an Arod lead offense won’t bottom out offensively, giving Dillon a chance to make hay in the green zone or just rip off long runs against a tired defense in the 4th qtr. if given the runway. |
| Tier 6-Low End RB2 | Risk | Reward |
| RB26 | Tony Pollard | His adp is climbing to a point where the ideas we have about his usage as a pure receiver may need to become more of a necessity for him to hit value. | Last year usage holds, Dallas defense takes a step back and none of the ancillary receiving pieces take a leap, leaving Pollard opportunity in the passing game. |
| RB27 | Rhamondre Stevenson | Another potential big time adp climber. The backfield remains to muddied, talk of an expanded role in the passing game doesn’t come to fruition and Damien Harris remains ahead for early down and goal line duties. There’s also this bizarre offensive coaching situation to contend with. | A share of early down and 3rd down work make him appealing. A more decisive portion of either or both make him a priority RB2. |
| RB28 | Rashaad Penny | The team spent a high pick on Ken Walker. Both seemed to be boxed out of 3rd down work. Geno Smith didn’t really target early down RBs in any of his starts and this offense could be really bad. | Ken Walker’s health opens up an early season runway for Penny to dominate carries early. If he picks up where he left off last year he could regulate Walker to a handful of carries per game. If Seattle can find a way to be just good enough to give Penny some scoring chances he could be a quality asset outside of the “dead zone”. |
| RB29 | Damien Harris | He’s a solid yet unspectacular back whose on a deep depth chart where the rest of the group have cost control after this season. There’s also the weird offensive shift that could make his already difficult task of matching last years TDs even harder. | He remains the front end of the committee, the primary goal line back and the Pats figure out enough on offense to stay a respectable offense. With Rhamondre getting the buzz he is, drafting a potentially sliding Harris could return value. |
| RB30 | Dameon Pierce | ADP, ADP, ADP. We’re reaching a point where I wouldn’t be surprised if we start getting blurbs from his pee wee coaches talking him up. He looks to have a significant leg up for early down work but Marlon Mack could have a secondary role. If he does and Pierce is not at least getting a share of the 3rd down work his ceiling may not equal that of the hype. | I think this comes down to Rex Burkhead. He played well when called upon and is a trusted, steady hand. Pierce has shown upside as pass protector and pass catcher too though. A breakout could be incoming. |
| RB31 | Kareem Hunt | 11 games without Watson should equal less scoring chances. The weird “hold in” situation is not something I’m putting much stock in but it’s can’t be completely ignored. | If his normal role stays in tact he’s appealing. If the Browns play in more negative game scripts he’s more appealing. If he gets traded he’s mucho appealing. Sensing a trend here? |
| RB32 | Cordarrelle Patterson | Tyler Allgeier has drawn buzz as a potential lead back in this offense. Late career Matt Ryan may not have been at his MVP level of play but he was still a steady enough hand to keep the offense on respectable ground…the combo of Mariota/Ridder may not. | Drake London was the only substantial add to the Atlanta offense, making it likely they’ll hunt touches for C-Patt again this year…and with the Falcons pretty high up on the “down bad” scale, an ideal amount of those could come via targets. C-Patt is another target that makes the Hero RB strategy so attractive this year. |
| RB33 | Antonio Gibson | What’s the opposite of drum beat? The violin beat continues, he’s already boxed out of the 3rd down role and looks closer to being boxed out of the goal line and short yardage work. A sub package role can’t be ruled out at this point. | Bad blurb after bad blurb could drop Gibson into a worthwhile range. Still a chance Brian Robinson plays a Jaret Patterson plus role and Antonio Gibson talent prevails now that his umm…leg isn’t broken. |
| Tier 7-High End RB3 | Risk | Reward |
| RB34 | James Cook | Early talk of Zach Moss making this backfield a 3 man group. I’ve long questioned the equivalence being made between what JD McKissic’s role would’ve been and what James Cook’s will be but what if it’s dead on? | A 2nd round RB in the actual NFL draft doesn’t =The modest 3rd down back deal of McKissic and the Bills have more plans for Cook. Even if Zach Moss is involved early I like taking shots on Cook. This team lacked explosion in the run game last year and the minute they get it they may not want to look back. |
| RB35 | James Robinson | The quick return to action begins with an extended pitch count. As we saw with Cam Akers, he may not be the same player early on coming of an Achilles injury. | He’s too good a football player to not play. Much more reliable between the tackles and brings it in pass pro. The avenue to lead the backfield in snaps at some point is there. |
| RB36 | Ken Walker | Early season injury as a rookie + talented runner in front of you = problems | Penny hasn’t been the picture of health and he is only on a 1 year deal. Walker’s injury is likely to cause an early season gap but if he returns early he’s got the talent to close it. Walker’s adp could slide into high end handcuff range, giving him some appeal. |
| Tier 8-Mid to Low End RB3 | Risk | Reward |
| RB37 | Josh Jacobs | Zamir White early down nibbles turn to full on bites. Too many options as far as 3rd down backs. Antonio Gibson West but worse. | A trade. Unexpected trickle of early down targets. There’s a scenario where they opt not to push Zamir White too early, the offensive environment is better and Jacobs is just fine but it’s difficult to get excited at cost. |
| RB38 | Devin Singletary | James Cook was the obvious one but now it seems as though Zach Moss has gotten an invite to the party. If Moss is grabbing off his plate on early downs and at the goal line and Cook is grabbing off his plate on 3rd down, Singletary is gonna have a lot leaner meal. | Moss disappears from the rotation and Cook is purely a 3rd down compliment. It doesn’t match his late 2021 role but it does have appeal at cost. |
| RB39 | Melvin Gordon | Desire to have Javonte Williams lead this backfield leans him further to high end handcuff then standalone asset. | Something close to last year’s usage rolls over and Javonte does something to lose trust on 3rd down or in the red zone with raised expectations. |
| RB40 | Darrell Henderson | Moving up the premier handcuff ladder, Henderson could end up as a change of pace back only without a regular 3rd down role. A net loss at his rising adp. | McVay breaks character and opts for more of a split considering Akers is still coming off a fairly recent injury. A consistent 3rd down role and a handful of carries a game makes for good value. Any more of a split of early down work starts to ice the cake. |
| RB41 | Nyheim Hines | Pure 3rd down back without a significant added boost of the less mobile Matt Ryan checking down. Still holds value but the upside at cost isn’t great. | I mean, Frank Reich told us to draft him. More check downs and more throws in general would give us what we needed but if he’s legit finding schemed touch opportunities for him we could be looking at a steal. |
| RB42 | Tyler Allgeier | A 5th round rookie with unspectacular measurables who despite buzz has locked into the role people are projecting. Final cut downs could bring a short term upgrade. | He hasn’t jumped to the top of the depth chart yet but outside of C-Patt he’s not dealing with significant competition from a talent prospective. Provided they don’t add anyone he could easily find himself in the role Mike Davis played last year. |
| RB43 | Brian Robinson | Not to say any of what’s transpired with Antonio Gibson is “noise” but there is still a scenario where he’s the clear leader on early downs. | Becomes the primary short yardage early down and short yardage back on a more decisive level. |
| Tier 8-RB4 | Risk | Reward |
| RB44 | Michael Carter | Breece Hall’s presence obviously blocks his early down potential but if he also cuts into his 3rd down this begins look more like we’re venturing into pure handcuff territory. | As pointed out by the great Matt Waldman, Carter’s skill set as a pass protector and pass catcher is superior to Hall at this stage. With Joe Flacco slated to start the season that probably takes on added importance. Recent talking of him leading the backfield. |
| RB45 | Jamaal Williams | Lots of empty calorie box scores as he doesn’t get a ton of the high value touches and he doesn’t break off long runs. | He goes very late in drafts and his weekly involvement gives you a floor. One of the better handcuffs you could ask for without the price markup. |
| RB46 | Alexander Mattison | The new coaching staff doesn’t view him as the no brainer 3 down handcuff that Zimmer did. | New staff, same role. |
| RB47 | Khalil Herbert | The buzz doesn’t lead to a role valuable enough to match up. | The team becomes less invested in impending free agent David Montgomery. Fit for zone running game the team is said to want to implement. Potentially valuable double digit round pick. |
| RB48 | Rachaad White | Pass pro and patience doesn’t improve and he winds up as a game day inactive or sparingly used backup. | He does carry solid draft capital and the team is aware of his flaws coming in. They may view him as too talented to keep off the field and find a way to get him touches in space. |
| RB49 | Kenneth Gainwell | With the way the Eagles have operated the last couple years we can never rule out a 4th back being added to this group. Also, a run heavy approach wouldn’t be great for Gainwell’s outlook either as his appeal as a pass catcher would take a hit. | The Eagles are a more balanced team leading to some pass catching opportunities for Gainwell. There is talk he’ll be used more in the redzone as well which would obviously be huge. |
| RB50 | Isaiah Pacheco | RoJo and Mckinnon both stick around. Sounds like he’ll have some level of role for sure but one of them being out would make me feel a little more secure. | Becomes the number 2 back and plays some on 3rd down. Could have fireworks with the creativity of Reid and Bienemy. |
| RB51 | Isaiah Spiller | ADP is reflecting the appeal of Spiller, clouding the value proposition. There is also the buzz that Joshua Kelley is running clearly ahead of him right now. While I don’t expect that to hold it does give me pause. | The most talented breather back the Chargers have had in recent seasons. They’ve given less talented players legitimate roles. Even Ekeler doesn’t want a workhorse load. |
| RB52 | Tyrion Davis-Price | It’s Kyle Shanahan so his role could range from healthy inactive to 80% of the RB touches. | The wide range of outcomes is what makes it appealing late. Especially because he’s not getting the same level of buzz he got a few weeks ago. With his running style and pass pro chops I could see him carving out a legit role. |
| Tier 9-RB5 | Risk | Reward |
| RB53 | Eno Benjamin | Early buzz gets undone by preseason or early season struggles. Cards opt for the trustworthy vet in Darrel Williams or look elsewhere. | Early buzz leads to a Chase Edmond like role. |
| RB54 | Raheem Mostert | Mostert plays a pure change of pace role and struggles to find standalone value. | Mostert carves out an every week role and is the primary handcuff to Chase Edmonds OR the less likely but rosier projection…Mike McDaniel pulls his Shanahan-nigins and Mostert supplant Edmonds as the lead guy while Edmonds plays more of his Arizona role. |
| RB55 | Mark Ingram | Alvin Kamara looks unlikely to be suspended this season so that crosses off one selling point for Ingram. The team has flirted with veteran backs in recent weeks, was that to brace for a Kamara suspension or to add another look to the room? | Ingram still has gas in the tank and the team puts him in a role more reminiscent of his 1st tenure in New Orleans. |
| RB56 | Zamir White | Remains too many cooks in the kitchen. | Jumps or at least gets on equal footing as Jacobs as an early down hammer. Improving offense would give him ample GL chances. |
| RB57 | Jerrick McKinnon | ISAIAH PACHECO | The disinterest in a pass catching role for CEH continues and Pacheco isn’t ready on for 3rd down role. |
| RB58 | JD Mckissic | Nyheim Hines saw his targets per game drop from 4.75 to 3.35 going from Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz. | Mckissic falls through the cracks in drafts. He was never going to match his 2020 numbers last year because the playing wouldn’t be there but he was more efficient in 2021 and he does have a secure role. Could have some value if you’re trying to piece together your RB2/depth. |
| RB59 | Rex Burkhead | Texans show at least some level of trust in Pierce on 3rd downs. | Burkhead occupies a 3rd down plus role on a team that figures to trail a lot more than they lead. |
| RB60 | Ronald Jones | A release sounds squarely on the table for RoJo. | A release where he can latch on somewhere like Atlanta or Arizona might be best. There is a scenario, albeit unlikely where hangs around and the team sours on CEH on early downs. Am I just trying to hang on? |
| RB61 | Marlon Mack | The Pierce buzz is legitimate and Rex Burkhead gobbles up the 3rd down work. | Texans don’t hand the keys to Pierce from the outset. Mack shows some post injury juice in a 2 down role. |
| RB62 | Samaje Perine | Chris Evans jumps him for the 3rd down role (please) | Coaches often go trust over talent. Perine stays in the trust tree. |
| RB63 | Jaylen Warren | Anthony Mcfarland jumps him at some point or makes it a committee if Najee misses time. | Looks like he’s jumped Benny Snell for the RB2 role. |
| RB64 | Ameer Abdullah | Drake is out of the picture but other 3rd down options still in house | Keeps hold of the 3rd down role…a spot that has carried annual value in McDaniels’ offenses. |
| RB65 | Zach Moss | This 3 back committee talk is a mirage or it starts off that way and James Cook give the backfield too much juice to split 3 ways. | He’s seemingly worked himself back into the picture. If Moss can get change of pace and goal line role he was initially ticketed for as a rookie he’s got appeal. |
| RB66 | Gus Edwards | The Ravens have been very non committal with his timeline for return. Depending on what the plan is to ramp him back up once he does come off the pup list, you could be clogging up a roster spot for a few weeks or more. | Because he’s on the pup list you should be able to place him on IR. You can draft him very late or pick him up post draft at this point. If he returns to his role of the past at some point this season you’re getting a 9th round value for free. |
| RB67 | Dontrel Hilliard | Not a high volume target role to begin with…Henry siphons off a little. | Primary 3rd down back and Hassan Haskins doesn’t look ready to be an early down contributor yet. |
| RB68 | Chris Evans | Perine remains ole reliable for the coaching staff. | Evans leaps him for a 3rd down role. Gets into that upper handcuff tier. |
| RB69 | Donta Foreman | Clogs roster for only a split role if CMC goes down. | Plays a grinder short yardage role behind CMC and Rhule makes it clear he’s fighting for his head coaching job one carry at a time. |
| RB70 | Ke’Shawn Vaughn | Rachaad White’s pass pro and decision making as a runner takes strides…or they just view him as player too talented in space to shelve. | A favorite dart throw RB of mine. Much more stylistically inclined to fit as a runner behind Fournette. |
| RB71 | Matt Breida | The most talented backup RB they have now but maybe that changes after cut downs. | Carves out a change of pace role and becomes Saquon’s primary handcuff |
| RB72 | Benny Snell | Anthony McFarland, probably the most talented backup on the roster, jumps him in the pecking order | Remains the primary backup/handcuff |
| RB73 | Dernest Johnson | Nothing happens with Hunt and you’re clogging a roster spot. | Hunt is moved and now you have a premier handcuff for free. |
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