| Tier 1-Elite TE1 | Risk | Reward |
| TE1 | Travis Kelce | You just never know when father time is going to show up. As pointed out by Hayden Winks, the team seems to be intentionally lightening his load in preseason. Foreshadowing? | The amount of freedom him and Mahomes have is nearly unmatched. So will be the volume. Even sans Tyreek this offense will be among the leagues best. |
| TE2 | Mark Andrews | A healthy Ravens team could have a 100 less pass attempts than last year. That’s something to at least consider at his 2nd to early 3rd round price. | Andrews put up a 64-852-10 line on 41% of the offensive snaps in 2019. High end volume concerns or not, he’s incredible. |
| Tier 2-High End TE1 | Risk | Reward |
| TE3 | Kyle Pitts | QB questions could cloud his high end ceiling. So could usage if the Falcons don’t allow him to be the true mismatch weapon he can be. | Early preseason usage looks promising as it pertains to him running routes from the slot or inline instead of as a traditional WR. The Falcons somehow won 7 games last season with a -146 point differential. This season they have the 7th least favorable SOS adjustment from 2021 to 2022 per Sharp Football. Lots of pass attempts incoming |
| TE4 | Darren Waller | Davante Adams’ presence is an obvious chip at his target projection but if he’s a decisive 3rd in the redzone pecking order that could spell problems for his ceiling. Week 1 availability reportedly in question. | The Raiders have the 3rd toughest schedule per Sharp Football. They’ll also get a pace bump. Two factors that should help balance out the volume loss he’ll see. Waller recently said that there is more definitive role for him in the redzone this year. |
| TE5 | George Kittle | How much trust does Shanahan have in Trey Lance? The highest run rate in the league is one the table and that doesn’t feel good when trying to project work for multiple talented pass catchers. Related: Why did Mo Sanu have one more redzone target than George Kittle *c’mon son* | Bet on talent if you can get him at reduced cost. We know he’s a game wrecker with the ball in his hands but there are too many questions at play here to invest in him aggressively. |
| Tier 3 | Risk | Reward |
| TE6 | Dalton Schultz | It’s all price, I turn into Mr. Krabs when I see where he’s going in drafts. | Schultz’s opportunity to hog targets again is clearly there. Schultz was 3rd amongst all TE’s in catches for 1st downs last season. You wonder what he could have accomplished if Dak wasn’t slowed by a hamstring injury for 2/3’s of the year or if Blake Jarwin wasn’t eating into his snaps early in the year. |
| TE7 | Dallas Goedert | The addition of AJ Brown and the fact that the Eagles were the only team under 500 pass attempts will challenge Goedert’s ability to produce unless more balance is achieved. His adp mixed with an non elite target opportunity is something I will haggle over. | Coincidently some of his biggest games last season came after the Eagles shifted dramatically towards the run. An imposing, athletic presence…Goedert has the talent to do massive damage if the Eagles offense takes the leap many expect. |
| TE8 | TJ Hockenson | It’s a crowded room of weapons and that’s even before they get Jameson Williams into the lineup. Amon Ra St. Brown’s emergence in the same areas of the field that Hockenson frequents doesn’t help his case. Kind of wanna drop him to Tier 4. | Hockenson has had good red zone target shares the last two years and this year the Lions could be good enough to actually make that matter. |
| Tier 4 | Risk | Reward |
| TE9 | Dawson Knox | Gabriel Davis, Isaiah Mckenzie and James Cook are explosive pass game weapons that could see varying degrees of involvement. There’s a chance that Knox’s role doesn’t grow enough to offset the likely TD regression he’ll see. | The TDs will be tough to replicate but the volume can absolutely take a leap with Knox operating closer to the areas of the field that Cole Beasley did…and with his locked in redzone role, 25 more targets in that area left behind by Beasley/Manny, it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility that those double-digit TDs get approached again. |
| TE10 | Zach Ertz | Ertz averaged 4.5 targets per game w/Deandre Hopkins in the lineup. The Cardinals also added talented rookie TE Trey McBride high in the draft. Whether it’s Hopkins return and/or McBride’s development, Ertz could lose steam instead of gain it as the season progresses. | Ertz averaged 9 targets per game w/o Deandre Hopkins in the lineup. That kinda of volume in a good offense is very difficult to come by at the TE position. |
| Tier 5 | Risk | Reward |
| TE11 | David Njoku | A run heavy offense with history of involving multiple TE’s whose missing it’s starting QB for 2/3’s of the season. | A significant financial commitment and questions at WR could solidify Njoku as a priority on this offense. If you’re waiting until the double digit rounds for TE, Njoku is likely the biggest upside swing you can take. |
| TE12 | Cole Kmet | The late round TE darling is now being taken around TE11. Are we getting a little too comfortable? | He could probably play half his snaps blindfolded and score more TDs than he did last year. The Bears want to establish themselves as a good, zone running team but idk if their talent level will consistently allow for it. Negative scripts and volume should be in Kmet’s favor with the blank slate at WR outside of Mooney. |
| TE13 | Albert Okwuegbunam | Multiple TE’s have gotten talked up this offseason for the Broncos. His preseason usage has not be conducive with a player on his way to a breakout season. | Things don’t sound great right now but the upside is still there for athletic 3rd year guy. He’s got the talent, good environment, and red zone opportunity to reach top 12 status. His adp will now likely fall to a range where taking him as a TE2 lottery ticket makes a ton of sense. |
| TE14 | Robert Tonyan | Tonyan was just recently cleared to practice so we’re unsure of his early season timeline. One would imagine there will be an early season pitch count. There’s also volume concerns to contend with as a run heavy script makes an overwhelming amount of sense for this team. | He’s athletic, has already gained the trust of Aaron Rodgers and has a double digit TD season under his belt. At his modest cost it makes some sense to take a late flier on him to see how the team ramps up his workload. Pair him with someone whose got a little more earlier season certainty if you’re waiting at TE in drafts. |
| TE15 | Pat Freiermuth | With a good defense, a 1st round RB and additions to their O-Line, it would surprise nobody if the Steelers leaned into a ground and pound approach. George Pickens preseason emergence won’t help matters either from a volume prospective. TDs could be vital. | Steelers will have a more mobile QB this year regardless who they decide to start. Deeper route combo’s as I expect from Canada will also help Freiermuth’s opportunity for bigger players. Whether it’s moving the pocket or extended plays, the Steelers can better leverage the 6’5” former basketballer. |
| TE16 | Tyler Higbee | Higbee is in a group of players at the position that could give you just good enough numbers not to cut but never be a difference maker, | 5 or so targets per in a Sean McVay offense does carry value on some level. If the surroundings of a good offense just make you feel a little more cozy, I can dig it. |
| TE17 | Irv Smith | Early season health is obviously a concern but just how he’ll be utilized is unknown. I’d also expect him to be no higher than 4th on the redzone target pecking order. | For those of us that waited for Gerald Everett to breakout with the Rams we’ve got a new detached TE to root for in this scheme. Irv is a smooth potential mismatch threat who Vikings beat writer Arif Hasan has said the team would like to use him downfield more often. These are the upside shots you should be taking in LRTE builds. |
| TE18 | Hunter Henry | The man reportedly calling the shots for this Patriots pass game had a passing offense for the Giants last season that averaged a league worst 4.8 adjusted yards per pass attempt. Henry’s strong redzone target share could take a hit with Devante Parker likely in a high snap role. | Even with Parker in town, Henry should remain a redzone priority. If we just decide we’re going to give Belichick the benefit for the weirdest offensive experiment I can remember…there some appeal in the variance of the situation. |
| Tier 6 | Risk | Reward |
| TE19 | Mo Alie Cox | Parris Campbell stays healthy and takes on a significant role. The Colts pass rate doesn’t jump enough to support MAC being a true difference maker. | 136 vacated targets, locked in starter, QB upgrade and history of efficiency. MAC is one of my guys this year. |
| TE20 | Mike Gesicki | He takes too much off the table as a blocker and he’s left splitting snaps with Durham Smythe and associates. Cedrick Wilson muddies his slot snaps. | I’ve been off of Gesicki but Ian Hartitz theorized an interesting scenario. If Gesicki is in-line full time, he’ll get more advantageous matchups than he would as a slot. I’m still most likely off him but his athletic profile does at least make it a thought if he’s around late enough. A trade could push him up higher than you might think. |
| TE21 | Austin Hooper | Hooper isn’t gonna give you flash plays. If the Titans play action passing game isn’t humming and Henry isn’t setting him up for end zone targets it could be a snooze fest. | Should eat up a lot of snaps as an inline fit in this Derrick Henry led offense. There is enough opportunity here for Hooper to potential be a TE you can get by with weekly |
| TE22 | Noah Fant | Besides the pass catching talent on paper, nothing else with this pass offense sounds appealing. Fant’s preaseason usage leaves much to be desired. | Fant remains one of the most talented TE’s in the league and whether ole Pete wants to admit it..he’s got some negative game scripts in his immediate future. |
| TE23 | Brevin Jordan | The Texans have long had commitment issues at TE. | It sounds like he’s being given a legit shot to separate himself from the pack. If he does there’s room for a solid target projection here. |
| TE24 | Gerald Everett | A little too much Donald Parham talk for my liking (for Everett sake, I want no Parham smoke) | Still an upper echelon athlete at the position who got 8 million guaranteed from a team that throws at one of the highest rates in the NFL. |
| Tier 7 – Don’t draft but monitor | Risk | Reward |
| TE25 | Jonnu Smith | More of 2021. | The Pats go back to the drawing board with their prized 2021 free agent acquisition. Talent isn’t the issue. |
| TE26 | Hayden Hurst | It’s a bit role that doesn’t even reach Uzomah levels. | Hurst has been sure handed throughout his career and lands in a great offensive environment. |
| TE27 | Taysom Hill | How many routes will he run? If his role is mostly the gadget variety his floor is frightening. | If you’re taking a TE this late your likely settling for a little volume or praying for a TD. Why not do it with a supreme TD stealer. |
| TE28 | Kyle Rudolph | Brate and Otton could make this a platoon where nobody has value. | Redzone potential in a Brady led offense |
| TE29 | Adam Trautman | The WR additions + whatever Taysom is doesn’t leave room for a role of substance. | There was a time not too long ago where the Saints were really excited about him. How bout now? |
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