| Tier 1 – Elite WR1 | Risk | Reward |
| WR1 | Cooper Kupp | Matt Stafford’s shoulder. TD regression | If Stafford’s shoulder is right you could make an argument for him as the 1.02 overall at minimum. |
| WR2 | Justin Jefferson | The Cooper Kupp “role” is a bit more spread out than we think. Cousins and Thielen buddy buddy ways in the red zone nip at Jefferson’s high end TD ceiling. | Jefferson got one of the best situation makeovers imaginable and he was historically productive for a 1st and 2nd year WR in the previous one. A season for the record books is on the table. |
| WR3 | Ja’marr Chase | You’re paying a different cost now. Last year you were playing with house money. This year you NEED it. Higgins just as involved. | Chase set the league on fire with middling Bengals pass rates. If those numbers take a noticeable jump it could get scary. |
| WR4 | Stefon Diggs | The Bills have the highest projected win total in the AFC. Normally we wouldn’t worry about them taking their foot off the gas but with a new OC we can’t be 100 percent certain. | He’s got one of the most complete profiles in all of fantasy. Checks every box and has positive TD regression otw. |
| Tier 2 – High End WR1 | Risk | Reward |
| WR5 | Davante Adams | His Green Bay volume is impossible to replicate. His green zone competition is also more formidable. | Even if his target outlook isn’t top 2, it’s still probably top 8. He’s on a team that should play much faster and likely to have more shootout potential. |
| WR6 | CeeDee Lamb | Questions on the O-Line cause the Cowboys to adjust their pass rate subtly, Zeke remains the redzone target leader…chipping at Lamb’s high end ceiling. | Leading the NFL in targets is squarely on the table for Lamb. Mixing his level of talent with this opportunity makes him a draft day priority. |
| Tier 3 – Rest of WR1 | Risk | Reward |
| WR7 | Mike Evans | Chris Godwin’s quick recovery cuts into Evans potential for target hog games. | Evans’ TD upside is up there with any WR in football. |
| WR8 | Tyreek Hill | The special off script magic that Hill and Mahomes were able to make can’t be replicated. You’re also going from a top 5 pass rate in KC to a Miami one that if it’s middle of the league it’s considered a win. | Between the draft capital and contract given up I think it’s fair to say that the Dolphins will be pretty motivated to get Tyreek the football. Assuming the route design is Shanahan-esque, Hill should be given space to make plays after the catch. |
| WR9 | Deebo Samuel | Having a new, inexperienced starter at QB could cap the pass rate. Deebo’s ADP is deserving based on how insane he was as a receiver and runner but it doesn’t do enough to account for uncertain and regression. | Deebo is one of those talents that can bend numbers. His ability with the ball in his hands matched with a scheme that gets him in advantageous situations gives him opportunities to do more with less. The QB change while uncertain does offer more upside outside the numbers, down the field and on extended plays. |
| WR10 | Tee Higgins | Much like what Mahomes and Chiefs have faced. Teams may opt to play more cover 2 and invite the Bengals to run the football. Those softer looks could hurt their chunk play potential in the passing game. | As I stated with Chase, if the Bengals mightily improved O-Line talent lead them to raise their pass rate it could get scary. Sporting a nearly identical target share to that of Chase, he may not have the home run speed his counterpart has but he’s supremely talented in his own right and will benefit from the concessions defenses have to make to keep Chase from exploiting them. |
| WR11 | AJ Brown | After a slow start the Eagles morphed into the run heaviest team in the NFL. AJB is no stranger to those scripts and has balled out in spite of them but he’s now in a situation with more target competition than he had with the Titans. You still want to bet on his talent at the end of the day but you’d like a little margin for error. | Josh Norris was the first person I heard theorize this. The Eagles have a decision to make on Jalen Hurts very soon. They were run heavy out of necessity last year but the initial plan was to be a passing team. They could very well come out and stress test Jalen Hurts with goal of making the most informed decision possible at QB for 2023 and beyond. That changes AJB’s outlook significantly. I like investing in the variance. |
| WR12 | DJ Moore | There are two questions here…is the infrastructure around this offense good enough to push Moore into a true breakout (TDs)? And does the hot seat of Matt Rhule lead him to dramatic, ground and pound mode to try to scrap together as many wins as possible. | His role and talent combo is among the best at the position. You can argue to what extent but it’s pretty clear that the QB position is better. I think his floor is pretty secure but if McAdoo, Baker Mayfield and a healthy CMC brings stability to this offense we can possibly see the ceiling we’ve been waiting for. |
| Tier 4 – High End WR2 | Risk | Reward |
| WR13 | Michael Pittman | His ADP is rising from “a hit would be nice” to “a hit is absolutely necessary” range. | A bankable target share with no significant adds to the pass offense. A QB upgrade and the potential for more passing volume. Many people believe Pittman is on the verge of stardom. |
| WR14 | Terry Mclaurin | Last year’s efficiency woes continue and now he has a 1st round WR and a healthy Curtis Samuel to contend with for targets. | It may not feel like it but he did get a QB upgrade. One that has a live arm and surprising downfield numbers last season. |
| WR15 | Courtland Sutton | Head coach Nathaniel Hackett has overseen some slow offenses in GB. He’s said that they will move at the pace that Russ wants but until we see it it’s an unknown. | Prior to injury Sutton looked on his way to stardom with far less QB talent than what he has in Russell Wilson. The loss of Tim Patrick stabilizes his target share and redzone outlook and his talent downfield and at the catch point will be enhanced by maybe the best deep ball thrower in the NFL. |
| WR16 | Mike Williams | Williams hasn’t been a particularly efficient player over his career, partly because of how he was used in the past but it is something you think about when the price tag raises in drafts. | The Chargers O-Line had a top 5 adjusted sack rate per Sharp Football and added a stud 1st round guard to their mix. Already top 3 in pass rate could we see more deep passing added to the mix? |
| WR17 | Keenan Allen | Drafting him at cost means sacrificing upside. He doesn’t generate big plays. He’s not a catch point dominator. You lose your draft taking him but how do you get ahead? | Even in decline the volume should still be there. If you are a fan of floor and certainty he’s your man. |
| WR18 | Allen Robinson | Volume could be a concern as the most likely scenario is that the offense continues to run through Cooper Kupp and spread around everywhere else. | The Rams redzone passing tendency mixed with Arob’s size and gifts scream double digit TD upside. He goes from being drastically mismanaged to a system that excels at getting receivers free releases and advantageous looks. |
| WR19 | Diontae Johnson | His volume could take a hit in multiple ways. The QB play in training camp has not got glowing reviews. This could lead to a more run centric focus for the Steelers. It’s also impossible not to think his volume won’t take a hit due to late career Ben Roethlisberger being gone. | This is a bet on talent play. Any player that earns targets and separation at the rate Diontae does can produce in different fashions. There will be also be an inherent rise in aDot. Watching Matt Canada’s pre Steelers offense and you see a frenzy of motion and deeper route concepts.#DownfieldDiontae can leverage his separation skills and explosiveness to more chunk gains |
| WR20 | Chris Godwin | Coming off an acl injury there is a chance that he misses games early and also isn’t quite himself when he does return to action. | He’s probably a 2nd round pick if completely healthy and you’re getting him at a multiple round discount. Reports seem to place him ahead of schedule. |
| Tier 5 – Mid to Low End WR2 | Risk | Reward |
| WR21 | Gabriel Davis | He’s not the only player on this offense ascending. Dawson Knox, Isaiah McKenzie and James Cook have interesting potential in this offense. If the Bills are just as committed to developing those players and Knox’s redzone role grows, Davis’ ceiling doesn’t look the same. | The pathway to as many snaps as he can handle is there. Josh Allen is an aggressive a deep ball thrower as there is in the league, matching up with Davis’ strengths. Manny Sanders and Cole Beasley leave 182 targets behind. LOTS to like. |
| WR22 | Brandin Cooks | Even with late season improvements the Texans offense was in the basement. You always want good football players with strong target shares but drafting too many with capped TD upside can limit your teams ceiling. | A 25% percent target share seems like a virtual certainty. Davis Mills is ascending and the O-Line should be improved. Stylistically Cooks has the big play potential to shift the TD expectation math. |
| WR23 | Jaylen Waddle | A run centric offense proves unable to support two high end WR’s. He’s fine at cost but does he have enough upside to be a true adp beater? New injury concerns have surfaced. | Not being pigeonholed into a low aDot role could spell fireworks here. Much like Tyreek Hill, Waddle has the same offensive benefits and is gifted with outlier speed and explosiveness. |
| WR24 | Jerry Jeudy | Courtland Sutton establishes himself as the clear number one. Jeudy’s disappointing career redzone usage continues and KJ Hamler parlays the Tyler Lockett comps into an established role. | Tim Patrick’s injury likely locks Jeudy into 2 WR sets and unblurs the target picture some. Albert O seemingly not distinguishing himself helps as well. I admittingly wasn’t high on Jeudy coming in but things are looking up for him. |
| WR25 | Rashod Bateman | Overall volume not enough to be true difference maker. | Bateman will have the target share and talent to do damage. If the Ravens O-Line improvements take he’ll be a valuable piece of a top 5 scoring offense. |
| WR26 | Marquise Brown | Could be a tale of 2 seasons for Hollywood. He’s got the chance to start hot while Deandre Hopkins misses the first 6 games but what is his role afterwards? The Cardinals were among the highest in 12 personnel usage teams last season, just added a 2nd round TE, have a talented slot in Rondale Moore and are still very fond of AJ Green on the boundary. A lot of different ways his targets get pecked at. | The Cardinals gave up substantial draft capital to get Brown to Arizona. You would think that would be enough motivation to keep him a priority regardless what’s around him. He’s going to an offense that traditionally throws the ball more and takes shots downfield more often. |
| WR27 | Darnell Mooney | Mooney is in an offense whose ceiling looks significantly capped. | The new coaching staff seems more intentional about leveraging his quickness and explosion. Volume will be there but he’s also built a rapport with Justin Fields, a talented deep ball thrower. A deep shots could brighten his outlook. |
| WR28 | Amon Ra St. Brown | The Lions have put together one of the best young skill groups in the NFL. DJ Chark looked well on his to being an upper echelon WR before injuries hit. Jameson Williams is working back from injury himself but has blinding open field ability. Swift and Hockenson are two of the most talented pass catchers at their positions. Lots of mouths to feed. | His price reflects the concerns around volume fairly well. He’s also seemingly further establishing himself as a core piece of this team and offense. His game syncs up well with Jared Goff and offensive environment as a whole should be better than in 2021. |
| Tier 6 -WR3 | Risk | Reward |
| WR29 | Kadarius Toney | There was this weird time period in the offseason where it looked like Toney could be dealt. All the right things have been said since then but I’d imagine that’s a factor that has kept his adp lower than it should be. | Toney just moves differently then everybody else. He overtook an NFL passing game during his healthy games as a rookie. Now he get’s a massive coaching upgrade where they’ll play faster, throw more often with better design. Why isn’t he going higher by now? |
| WR30 | Michael Thomas | There’s the obvious one, what if he isn’t the same Michael Thomas? Then there’s the fact that this WR group is way more talented than the ones he dominated targets with. Targets he received with a QB way more suited to pepper him. There’s also the Saints top 3 run rate last season. | Lots of buzz that Michael Thomas looks like his old self in Saints camp. There is also optimism that with the add weapons the Saints will go back to their spread you out and throw roots. Even if he isn’t the target hog of old, he starts to look interesting if those 2 things prove true. |
| WR31 | Christian Kirk | The Jags have improved their pass catching corps but still lack a true table setter. Kirk is a good player but proves incapable of being an efficient engine of a pass offense. History of uneven play on the boundary. | Plays an overwhelming majority of his snaps out of the slot in 3 wide sets, making the boundary snaps he receives icing on the cake. He gobbles up volume as well as benefits from designed shots from the aggressive throwing Lawrence. Potential adp beater. |
| WR32 | JuJu Smith Schuster | Travis Kelce will remain at the top of the pecking order and the team has longer commitments to MVS (technically) and Skyy Moore. Target distribution could end up very flat outside of Kelce. | JJ Zachariason did well to point out the bias at play with Juju. He’s getting a huge QB upgrade, one who challenges every blade of grass on the field every play. While he’s not a standout separator, he shouldn’t be pigeonholed into a low aDot all the time box. Working as a full time starter in camp and preseason. |
| WR33 | DK Metcalf | How much time you got? | Geno Smith wins the job and is a steady enough hand to give DK enough catchable targets per game to allow his immense talent to shine. At a reduced cost of course. |
| WR34 | Tyler Lockett | See DK Metcalf | See DK Metcalf |
| WR35 | Adam Thielen | Targets could flatten out behind Jefferson if this offense is run verbatim like the Rams. Him and Cousins have long had green zone chemistry but if those looks start to get more so designed for Jefferson he may not have the TDs to prop up solid but not great volume. | Onlookers have said that Thielen looks to be in good shape. We haven’t heard a ton about his role but we know inherently he’ll get more free releases and space to work with. Talent has never been an issue so if he’s prioritized in this offense the upside is there. |
| WR36 | Amari Cooper | Officially without his starting QB for 11 games, where’s the upside compared to the WRs that surround him in adp? | He’s going to be an every down WR amongst a depth chart of players still trying to find their footing as pro’s. Target share should be no issue. For those who opt to build RB heavy early he could be a suitable target. |
| Tier 7-WR4 | Risk | Reward |
| WR37 | Elijah Moore | Braxton Berrios currently running as the WR can be a bit worrisome. Elijah Moore will still be on the field obviously but Berrios is a slot only player who put together a few double digit target games. There is a chance this offense is mediocre at best and so we’ll need every bit of volume possible. | Moore has impressed many in training camp and looks to be option 1 in the passing game. Joe Flacco starting early gives me more optimism that the offense will be competent. |
| WR38 | Allen Lazard | Talent is nothing if the opportunity isn’t there but Lazard has been anointed as the head of this Packers passing game by adp and I’m not sure the talent or the situation warrants it. | Aaron Rodgers talking him up has to factor in somewhere here. There is no substantial competition in his way currently. I project a flatter distribution but if Arod trusts the guy who’s to say he won’t jump his competition. |
| WR39 | Devonta Smith | He now has AJ Brown to contend with, If the pass rate doesn’t rise his volume will be a problem. | As I stated with AJB, the Eagles have incentive to see what they have in Hurts as a thrower. That helps everyone in the passing game. |
| WR40 | Deandre Hopkins | Between the suspension and potential games needed to ramp back up, Hopkins could not be startable until halfway through the year. | Throwing Hopkins into the mix could give many fantasy teams a mid season boost. I’m not crazy about it at his current cost but there’s no doubt upside with him. |
| WR41 | Hunter Renfrow | Davante Adams’ presence will take food off of Renfrow’s proverbial plate. His 29% red zone target share most certainly won’t be replicated. | The Raiders will likely play faster and Renfrow will still be plenty involved. McDaniels’ offenses with the Patriots have a history of big production from players of his ilk. |
| WR42 | Brandon Aiyuk | Volume will be the question here…oh, and if Kyle Shanahan decides he doesn’t like him again. | Aiyuk is a great fit for what Trey Lance enhances in this offense outside the numbers and down the field. |
| WR43 | Drake London | There isn’t enough competence at QB. | A player I’ve describe as Vincent Jackson with more wiggle. London has the talent to make an impact tomorrow. He’s drafted in a range where I think more about the upside than the downside. |
| WR44 | Robert Woods | Ryan Tannehil slide in play in play was more about him than the absence of Derrick Henry. Woods game syncs well enough with Tannehil that I think the floor is fine but the ceiling may not be. | Early returns may not be great for Treylon Burks, pushing Woods into a lead role early on. He’s a great fit for this play action passing game. |
| WR45 | Chase Claypool | GEORGE PICKENS | Now being cast as a full time slot I’m interested to see what the plan is here. QB questions and Pickens’ emergence could slide Claypool to an attractive adp to play the variance game. |
| WR46 | Russell Gage | Julio Jones’ presence and Chris Godwin’s ahead of schedule health squashes any chances of Gage being a full time 3rd WR. | A potential adp overcorrection makes Gage a decent play. The financial commitment makes it very likely he’s still 3rd on the team in snaps at the position and if the Bucs opt for a pitch count early with Godwin he could carry higher early season appeal, |
| WR47 | Kenny Golladay | Camp buzz hasn’t been great. Golladay has never been a separator but he seems to be having an even harder time now. Is it the hip? Couple that with Daniel Jones’ lack of desire to push the ball downfield and we’ve got legit problems. | Even with the struggles it doesn’t sound like he’s in any danger of being benched (YET). The offensive direction should be light years better than last year and he’s still a talented catch point player. He’s volatile but his ceiling is far above his adp. |
| WR48 | Julio Jones | His role is just to small and specialized to trust playing without an injury ahead of him. | This is Julio Jones we’re talking about. I think he can still run and win at the catch point and he may finally land in a situation were he gets true opportunity in the green zone, A novel concept. Oh and if anybody misses games ahead of him, he’s an every week flex probably. |
| Tier 8 -WR5 | Risk | Reward |
| WR49 | Chris Olave | The pass rate doesn’t rise and he’s closer to a field stretching bit player than he is a useful fantasy asset. | Olave is a talented, versatility WR prospect ready to contribute immediately. His outlook changes pretty substantially if the Saints open up their offense. |
| WR50 | Marquez Valdez Scantling | Never confused for his versatility. The other parts of his game don’t round out and ends up as a clear-out WR only whose spike weeks are impossible to predict. | He’s on a pseudo 3 year deal but the Chiefs did prioritize him. Outside of Kelce there are no no-brainers here. |
| WR51 | Devante Parker | So much offensive uncertainty coupled with a crowded room. It’s tough to have a great deaf of confidence in anybody in this passing game right now. | A talented catch point player. Parker’s skill set does standout from the rest of the room. He’s got as good a chance as anybody to be the #1 guy in NE. |
| WR52 | Jakobi Meyers | The offensive system is changing. The room is more crowded and I don’t nearly enough chatter about him from the people that cover the Patriots. | Tyquan Thornton’s recent injury removes an option in the short term. At his cost there’s rationale to throwing a risk/reward dart. |
| WR53 | George Pickens | He’s locked into the 3 WR sets but what about 2 WR sets? There’s also the QB questions. | Week 2 of the preseason seemed to suggest he’s the #2 WR. With Canada’s history of more multiple TE sets this could be a low key huge development for his target share. His talent is immense. |
| WR54 | Isaiah McKenzie | Jamison Crowder carves out a sub package role. | The Bills seem to be intentionally trying to get more explosive and McKenzie fits that bill. A full time slot role in one of the best offenses in football makes him appealing. |
| WR55 | Rondale Moore | A Charlie Brown aDot and potential for diminishing role once Hopkins returns. | Kingsbury has said he envisions Moore in the Christian Kirk role, which would be outstanding. The question would be if that’s his role even after Hopkins returns and Hollywood stays at the Z..or does Hollywood move inside once Hopkins returns? The ceiling outcome that he’s the full time slot the whole season makes him one of my favorite dart throws. |
| WR56 | Tyler Boyd | Stuck behind the best WR duo in the NFL, Boyd spends 2022 in the backseat again. | A higher pass rate would help. He becomes an every week flex if something happened to Chase or Higgins. |
| WR57 | Jahan Dotson | Wentz is too erratic to support anybody but McLaurin on a weekly basis. | Dotson looks to be locked into a near every down role to start the season. 1st round picks with guaranteed playing time should have more buzz than this, almost regardless the QB situation. |
| WR58 | Nico Collins | If the offense isn’t better and the team isn’t outright hunting targets for him he may end up just being fine for fantasy. | The hype train is picking up steam. His talent is pretty evident and he compliments Cooks’ playing style well. He also doesn’t have much target competition. Wheels up. |
| WR59 | Wan’dale Robinson | Toney continues his star turn and Golladay figures it out, pushing Wan’dale down the pecking order. Sterling Shepard just cleared. | Seems to have the starting slot role sewed up. A 100 target rookie campaign is possible. |
| WR60 | Michael Gallup | There’s always the risk that he’s brought along slowly. On the field he’s played a lot as a field stretching boundary guy with lower percentage looks. The loss of Tyron Smith could lower them even more. | Avoiding the PUP list was a welcome sight. Means he should return sometime before the first 4 weeks. The trade of Amari Cooper and Gallup’s 5 year extension should lead to an expanded role. |
| WR61 | Parris Campbell | Alec Pierce starts to make a move in 2 WR sets and the talk of more balance was just talk. | It’s clear this regime loves Parris Campbell. He’s been working as a starter in 2 WR sets and with the possibility of more balance I love taking Campbell late to see if the shift really happens. |
| WR62 | Romeo Doubs | You pay break out prices for the Packers 4th WR. | Doubs has been a training camp and preseason darling. Would anybody be shocked if parlays it into a regular role in 3 WR sets sometime soon? |
| WR63 | Jarvis Landry | The offense isn’t good enough nor balanced enough to for him to be more than a 4 catch 40 yard type guy weekly. | A flashback to the old Saints approach could make Landry a useful late round WR. |
| Tier 9 -WR6 | Risk | Reward |
| WR64 | Treylon Burks | He’s a sub package player while trying to fine tune his game, making him a roster clog. | The news continues to be negative on him and eventually could drop his adp to a range where he’s worth the gamble. If he’s not a full time player you can’t cut bait without guilt. |
| WR65 | KJ Osborn | Irv Smith is made a priority, making Osborn a better in real football guy. | The “Cooper Kupp role” is a bit more spread out than it’s being made out to be. Even if it’s not, Osborn is now a full time starter who has shown flashes. |
| WR66 | Josh Palmer | Continues to be a role player without enough substance to his role to roster. | More deep throws and less multi TE sets. Recent buzz that he’ll be more involved. |
| WR67 | Skyy Moore | He seems to be the WR4 in KC at the moment. I expect him to get snaps weekly but for every week that he doesn’t eat into someone’s snaps is a week you’re in a holding pattern with him? | At some point this season he could ascend to full time duty in this offense. A Patrick Mahomes offense. Need I say more? |
| WR68 | KJ Hamler | The Broncos have talk up multiple TE’s this offseason. More 12 personnel spells bad news. | Tim Patrick’s injury opens up a real opportunity for him in 3 WR sets. His speed with Russ’ deep ball excellence could bare fruit. |
| WR69 | Sammy Watkins | Doubs ascension continues and Arod confidants Lazard and Cobb round out the trio. | Provided he’s damn near free I have no issue drafting Watkins and waiting to see how Week 1 pans out. |
| WR70 | Mecole Hardman | If Skyy Moore is gonna to leap someone, Hardman is probably the easiest target. | He’s never lived up to people’s lofty sleeper expectations and he’s limited as a player but he has made big plays. There’s value in that on some level. |
| WR71 | Garrett Wilson | Looks as though he’s the WR4 for the Jets right now. I expect that to change at some point but when? | If you have the room, taking a talented 1st round WR to wait and see what happens isn’t the worst strategy. |
| WR72 | Will Fuller | We’re both watching games this year. | He lands in Dallas or Green Bay, or someone else after an injury. |
| WR73 | Odell Beckham Jr | May have a long wait on your hands. | I think he’ll be super selective. I like his chances of ending up in a good environment with a good QB. |
| WR74 | Curtis Samuel | He’s behind McLaurin and a 1st round WR. Upside could be hard to come by. | They paid him handsomely and still seem to be invested in him. He’s such a threat with the ball in his hands and this coaching staff has a history of creativity with him going back to Carolina. |
| WR75 | Jamison Crowder | McKenzie doesn’t relinquish his grip of the slot role. | Mckenzie’s usage to this point had more to do with Crowder’s health and he operates at least in a split. |
| WR76 | Kendrick Bourne | Even without Tyquan Thornton we get more of a committee. | Pats beat writer Tom Curran opined about a potential Deebo Samuel-ish role with the team given his experience in the Shanahan/McVay system. |
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