QB: Aaron Rodgers @Minnesota
I am not very high on Aaron Rodgers this year, as evidence by his QB15 standing on my tier rankings…rankings you can find on this blog as well (shameless plug). The Packers situation screams slow, run heavy offense from every angle but if there were any week for that to change it’s this week.
Last year Rodgers had a season high 45 pass attempts in his week 12 matchup versus the Rams. Sean McVay disciple Kevin O’Connell will bring over his fast-paced approach to the Vikings and has plenty of skill position talent to force the Packers out of their shell.
Two of his three 300 yard passing games came against the Rams in that week 12 game and against this Vikings defense in week 11.
Talent and efficiency have never been an issue for A-Rod. Davante Adams being gone certainly hurts but if placed in a game script to cut loose, I like taking a shot at lower rostership.
DraftKings salary: 7,000
RB: Joe Mixon vs. Pittsburgh
Armed with an improved O-Line and weapons to keep boxes light, Mixon finds himself in a plus week 1 spot. Only the Texans gave up more rushing yards than the Steelers last year. Pittsburgh allowed a healthy 4.7 yards per carry to RBs.
With QB and OL questions to answer, this game could get away from Pittsburgh quick…and set Mixon up for over 100 yards and a multi TD game. Milestones he hit the last time these 2 teams faced off
DraftKings salary: 7,100
RB: Chase Edmonds vs. New England
This play is about not being overtaken by the fear of the unknown. Everything on paper seems to be setting up for Edmonds to get a majority of the high value touches. He fits the scheme, he’s comfortable in the passing game, and he doesn’t have a bruising goal line back on the depth chart as an obvious goal line vulture.
As a home favorite versus an offense in identity crisis mode, 20 + touches are on the table. Just gotta be willing to take the risk.
DraftKings salary: 5,200
WR: AJ Brown @Detroit
Brown is a player I’ve advised people to take a stand on. The Eagles look destined for at the very least a balanced offensive approach with the chance that they are just flat out pass heavy. We’ve seen AJB destroy defenses on those run heavy Titans teams so flirting with double digit targets versus a Lions defense that gave up the 9th most yards to the position last season sounds like a party to me.
DraftKings salary: 6,400
WR: Randall Cobb @Minnesota
We get our first stacking partner for Rodgers here. It’s uncertain how things will shake out on the outside at WR for Green Bay. Sammy Watkins, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson could form a bit of a committee but Randall Cobb should be a full-time player in the slot. With presumed #1 WR Allen Lazard out, I like Cobb’s chances at of leading the Packers in targets this week. He was also 2nd on the team in red zone targets last season.
DraftKings salary: 3,400
WR: Diontae Johnson @Cincinnati
In correlation with our Mixon play I’m going to a player who probably won’t be rostered much but carries upside at his price. In their last meeting, in which Mixon went over 100 yards and scored 2 TDs, Diontae had a 9 for 95 line on 14 targets. Now I know with Ben Roethlisberger gone, those gaudy target games won’t be as frequent but I’m projecting a negative script with a talented target earner whose downfield opportunities will inherently increase. #DownfieldDiontae
DraftKings salary: 6,000
TE: Robert Tonyan @Minnesota
Closing out my Packers double stack with another player with potential TD equity. Tonyan missed half of last season with a torn ACL but in 2020 he scored 11 TDs, 7 of them coming in the red zone.
I won’t lie, this play scares me…it’s his first game since the ACL injury and while he carries no injury designation coming in I’m sure there will be some sort of pitch count here.
At the end of the day I expect the production to get spread out on in the Green Bay passing game so I’m chasing the TDs.
DraftKings salary: 3,900
Flex: Justin Jefferson vs. Green Bay
I gotta give my Packers stack a push and what better way to do so? Jefferson has gotten so much buzz this offseason as he’s ticketed to play the “Cooper Kupp” role in this Vikings offense but as soon as week 1 hits it’s crickets on the DFS front?
With the field seemingly less likely to pay up at WR I like the opportunity this game stack afforded us to get different. Kills two contrarian birds with one stone.
DraftKings salary: 7,800
DST: Dolphins Def vs. New England
The Patriots reportedly took the bizarre offensive coaching approach they did to simplify things. A few months later and they seem as confused as everyone else. Are they now going back to their original scheme? Idk
The Dolphins changed head coaches but kept a lot of their defensive staff intact. They created pressure at one of the higher rates in the league last year, have ascending young players and added vets Melvin Ingram and Trey Flowers to the mix. They’ve also beaten the Patriots 3 out of the last 4.
With Chase Edmonds already in the lineup we put another stacking cherry on top to close it out.
DraftKings salary: 2,600
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