Month: November 2022

QB: Justin Herbert at Arizona DraftKings salary: 7,000

RB: Jeff Wilson Jr. vs. Houston DraftKings salary: 5,900

RB: D’Onta Foreman vs. Denver DraftKings salary: 5,500

WR: Mike Evans at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 6,700

WR: Keenan Allen at Arizona DraftKings salary: 6,100

WR: Zay Jones vs. Baltimore DraftKings salary: 4,600

TE: Gerald Everett at Arizona DraftKings salary: 4,400

FLEX: James Conner vs. Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary: 6,600

DST: Titans Def vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 3,100

Reasoning: Decided to go with the game with the most potential fireworks as my primary stack and i’ll get different elsewhere. Herbert pushed the ball downfield a bit more last week so I’m hopeful that’s a sign of things to come. Keenan Allen is a great value and stands to see his snaps ramp up going forward. Everett is falling under the radar and correlating my TE with my primary stack brings me a zen feeling. James Conner’s workhorse role going up against a 2 high safety obsessed defense is one of my favorite plays of the week. Regardless of how this game script goes he has a chance to hit.

Going back to my 3 RB ways and Jeff Wilson is an obvious one. At his price he’d be a good play even if Mostert played but with him being doubtful, in a matchup that you couldn’t create a better one in a lab…give me all the Wilson. D’Onta Foreman is my pivot play at the position. On a rainy day at home versus a offensively challenged Broncos team, Foreman could legitimately push for 30 carries. It carries risk because of the low totaled nature of this game and his light pass game involvement but it’s a chance I like taking.

Mike Evans is a guy I like going to when everybody is off because he’s always got multi TD upside. The Browns defense being 26th in EPA per dropback helps as well. Zay Jones was a last man in that projected the best at lower rostership.

On defense I think I’ve found a leverage point. Joe Burrow I think will be decently popular for those that don’t want to pay all the way up at QB. Teams throw a lot on the Titans because of how well they defend the run and without Joe Mixon the Bengals should probably lean more on Burrow’s arm. The matchup looks good for him and he’ll definitely be in lineups for me but looking at the other side of things, the Bengals will be without Ja’marr Chase and Burrow has taken the 3rd most sacks in the NFL. I’ll take my chances on Jeffrey Simmons, Denico Autry and company.

QB: Dak Prescott at Minnesota DraftKings salary: 6,600

RB: Dalvin Cook vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 8,000

RB: Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 6,200

WR: CeeDee Lamb at Minnesota DraftKings salary: 7,500

WR: Devonta Smith at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 6,200

WR: Ben Skowronek at New Orleans DraftKings salary: 3,900

TE: Logan Thomas at Houston DraftKings salary: 2,800

Flex: Dameon Pierce vs. Washington DraftKings salary: 6,500

DST: Steelers Def vs. Cincinnati

Reasoning: *Insert popeyes cook meme* This week is TOUGH. Value is lacking, making game and even skinny stacks take on a Rubik’s cube vibes. Lots of concessions were made and the first one started with my primary stack. I had Dalton Schultz in to double stack Dak. I tried my hardest to tweak this lineup and keep him but at every turn I needed to save salary. The matchup is such a good one for him and Lamb and despite playing so much zone, the Vikings surprisingly have allowed 41 QB rush attempts this season. I’ll just have to hope for a Peyton Hendershot or Jake Ferguson TD *fingers crossed*

If the Vikings want to continue their winning ways they’ll feed Dalvin Cook early and often and keep Micah Parsons grounded as a pass rusher. Cook’s passing game involvement and usage separation from Alexander Mattison over the last couple weeks made me more comfortable paying this hefty price tag.

Went back to RB in the flex in an attempt to get different and was able to parlay that into a skinny stack with Dameon Pierce and Logan Thomas. Pierce has a fairly tough matchup but his usage rivals most anybody in the league. Even if he’s got to grind out 25 tough carries, he’s got the talent to splash on 3 of them, vacuum in a few catches and find the end zone. He’s still too cheap for his role.

With my other 2 WR plays I landed on guys I just feel good about after battles to try to find another skinny stack. Devonta Smith gets a good matchup versus the zone heavy Colts *hat tip to John Daigle* and don’t have a 1 for 1 player to absorb Goedert’s volume. Many seem to be gravitating Tyler Higbee as a guy that will absorb Kupp’s volume coming off an 8 target game but his role was declining in recent weeks and the Rams’ offensive line has gone from small fire to inferno, he could be doing a lot more blocking. Skowronek was a full time player last week, ran a route on 80% of snaps and will get more slot snaps than anybody else. The Rams run game has had enough problems on their own but now they get a historically very good Saints run defense. Skowronek should be very busy on sunday, busy enough to pay off that 3,900 price tag.

Statistically the Steelers defense haven’t given us much to write home about since week 1 but many of those games have been without TJ Watt. I’m banking on familiarity, the absence of Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals offensive line as factors that could lead us to a strong performance at a super cheap price point..countering those who look at Joe Burrow as a prime spend down option from the Jalen Hurts/Josh Allen tier.

QB: Justin Fields vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 6,500

RB: Travis Etienne at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 7,100

RB: Dameon Pierce at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 6,300

WR: CeeDee Lamb at Green Bay DraftKings salary: 7,000

WR: Amon Ra St. Brown at Chicago DraftKings salary: 6,900

WR: Chase Claypool vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 4,800

TE: Harrison Bryant at Miami DraftKings salary: 2,700

FLEX: Jeff Wilson vs. Cleveland DraftKings salary: 5,500

DST: Colts Def at Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 2,500

Reasoning: You know how badly I like to at least moderately zig with my primary stack but this is a week where they just seem so pronounced that I’d be doing you all a disservice by trying to force it (I’ll save the Matt Stafford and Kenny Pickett double stacks for my personal time). Playing Justin Fields is the easy part, trying to figure out who to stack him with is not. Because of the draft capital given up and just how motivated the Bears were to get Chase Claypool involved in his first game I opted to roll with him but I couldn’t bring myself to add another Bears pass catcher. Initially I had Cole Kmet and went away from because 1. His 2 TD game could make him semi popular 2. His route run rate (66% percent last week) is fine but I just feel like if I’m going to make a gross play that also isn’t going to be contrarian, than it needs to be closer to 80%. I’ll probably cave and do it by the time Sunday rolls around, but not here. Brock Wright would be another cheap TE option you could run here. Amon Ra St. Brown is an easy bet for volume that rivals any WR that’ll suit up this week, just need the TDs and splash plays to start rolling in.

The secondary stack of Jeff Wilson/Harrison Bryant is a cheaper way to get into one of the other premier games on the slate and leverage popular pieces in it. Wilson carries risk but I’m leaning in on the possibility that his substantial opening game usage is a sign of a more decisive split in the future as opposed to a 50/50 timeshare. Last week he had 4 touches inside the 10 yard line as pointed out by Ben Gretch and ran 43% of the routes. A multiple TD game that side swipes Tua, Tyreek and Waddle is squarely in play. Harrison Bryant routes run numbers weren’t great last week but whether it’s by Tua and the Dolphins passing game (preferably not) or Wilson, he’s going to be pushed to run more and he’s really cheap.

TJ Hernandez inspired me to go RB in the flex a few weeks ago and like all of our attention spans these days I totally forgot it a week later…subconsciously riding my normal approach of WR in the flex over everything. So in an attempt to find ways to get different in a lineup with a popular Justin Fields, I added Travis Etienne and Dameon Pierce to this lineup. Both have been revelations in recent weeks, have put chunk plays on film and are probably a little underpriced considering their roles. They’ll both be popular and will show up together in a lot of lineups, but I doubt they’ll show up with Jeff Wilson, unless of course you’re rocking with ya boy.

There always seems to be a WR that gets kinda lost in the shuffle but when he starts going off on Sunday you think..”Of course, it was all there, why wasn’t I on him?”

This week I think that guy is CeeDee Lamb. The Packers exploitable run defense is concerning but CeeDee Lamb’s usage is top tier. There’s also the chance that we get a more limited Zeke or no Zeke at all as he’s currently a game time decision. Funneling a couple more targets to a talented and efficient player at lower rostership sounds like a good time to me.

At defense I’m rolling with the fighting Irsay’s. If you didn’t peep that Jeff Saturday introductory presser, do yourself a favor and YouTube it asap. Back to the play though…Like every other DFS player, I’m always looking for an angle to play a cheap defense. Many will roll with the Vikings at 2,200 if Josh Allen is out but I like the Colts here. Their offense is no question broken but nobody will confuse the Raiders offense with one that has it all together either…and they just placed Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow on IR. Maybe Jeff Saturday gives this team a 1 week boost of adrenaline, their more than respectable run D keeps Josh Jacobs in check and Davante Adams only goes 25-50% nuclear. I think that’s a reasonable ask.

QB: Tom Brady vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings Salary: 6,000

RB: Travis Etienne vs. Las Vegas DraftKings Salary: 6,300

RB: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Indianapolis DraftKings Salary: 6,200

WR: Justin Jefferson at Washington DraftKings Salary: 8,600

WR: Terry McLaurin vs. Minnesota DraftKings Salary: 5,900

WR: Chris Godwin vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings Salary: 6,200

TE: Cade Otton vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings Salary: 3,100

FLEX: Allen Robinson at Tampa Bay DraftKings Salary: 5,000

DST: Seahawks Def at Arizona DraftKings Salary: 2,500

Reasoning: Don’t be alarmed looking at my primary stack, I’m sane and aware that it isn’t 2021 anymore. It hasn’t looked great for the Bucs recently but I think there are some elements at play here that could turn back the clock a bit. The Rams play predominately zone defense, have a great run D and a pass rush that has went from absolutely monstrous to above average. Despite injuries across the OL, the Bucs offensive line has a top 3 adjusted sack rate…now I know that has to be taken with at least a small grain of salt because we know TB12 ain’t here for getting hit, when things get thick that ball is coming out…but it’s still impressive on some level. If Brady isn’t getting moved off his spot a ton and he knows where the soft spots on the opposing are, I think you can still bet on him despite the struggles. I feel good about his odds at hitting the 300 yard bonus, can the TDs return?

I went with Godwin over Evans due to price and zone defense versus man defense splits and with Cameron Brate ruled out, Cade Otton gets another week as a full time player. He ran a healthy 34 routes last week and drew 3 red zone targets. The Allen Robinson run back doesn’t give me warm and fuzzy feelings but he has at least been functional the last 2 weeks. I like that even with Van Jefferson back he ran 80% of the routes last week and he has 2 red zone targets in each of the last 2. The Rams play at a sluggish pace but the Bucs speedy neutral pace should pull a few more plays out of them. There is also the chance that Cooper Kupp doesn’t play his normal compliment of snaps while dealing with an ankle injury.

The Justin Jefferson-Terry McLaurin skinny stack will be a one of my go to’s this week. Jefferson’s matchup is as good as you could ask for. McLaurin’s volume continues to grow to a level more appropriate to his talent level. Hopefully the former can push the latter even further.

The contrarian nature of my primary stack affords me the opportunity to ride the wave at RB and I’m doing so with young backs who have 3 down profiles at great prices. The Colts have a great run defense but seem to be imploding on offense. I like the Patriots chances of controlling this game, giving Stevenson chances to grind out the tough yards and be that goal line hammer. Travis Etienne is becoming the centerpiece of the Jags offense and his matchup versus Raiders is about as good as you could ask for.

As a fantasy manager of multiple Kyler Murray teams I hope he balls out this week but the I’ve been a bit surprised with how many times I’ve heard his name mentioned as a great play this week…and that’s not to say he isn’t – I’ll be running some Kyler stacks this week too but it’s also not lost on me that Kliff Kingsbury is his coach. Between that, the improvements the Seahawks have made on defense and the tendency that these divisional matchups have to underdeliver, I’ll take my chances at this cheap a price point.