Month: December 2022

QB: Justin Fields at Detroit DraftKings salary: 7,900

RB: Jamaal Williams vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 5,000

RB: Tyler Allgeier vs. Arizona DraftKings salary: 5,300

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 7,800

WR: Garrett Wilson at Seattle DraftKings salary: 5,500

WR: Equanimeous St. Brown at Detroit DraftKings salary: 3,600

TE: Jelani Woods at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 2,800

FLEX: Saquon Barkley vs. Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 8,000

DST: Chiefs Def vs. Denver DraftKings salary: 3,800

Reasoning: Like Woj trying to leak NBA Draft picks without using the word draft…I’m lasered focused on this Bears-Lions game. Trying to figure out how to play it differently without losing my damn mind proved to be a challenge but here we are. I tried to be super aggressive in my differentiation by playing both Amon Ra and Jamaal Williams together. Many will play ASB and the people that are strange gluttons for punishment will play Jamaal as a contrarian one off but playing both and trying to soak up the Lion share (hehe) of the receiving and rushing production should set us apart. The other piece of this is who to stack Fields with…the obvious answer is Cole Kmet but obvious answers lead to duplication.

Equanimeous St. Brown is a super risky play but there’s a pathway that could make it less so by kick off. ESB practiced in full on coming off a concussion he suffered in week 15. Chase Claypool and Dante Pettis are both questionable to play after practicing on a limited basis on Friday. IF both miss, we’re looking at probably a near every snap workload for St. Brown at a super cheap price point in the best game environment of the slate. IF both play the odds obviously suffer but in week 13 when all 3 played he ran 68% of routes compared to 72% for Claypool and 76% for Pettis. I’m not trying to convince anybody that the play isn’t thin but I’m shooting for fireworks, ESB’s 86 air yards in that week 13 game is the most by a Bears WR since. Let the Hail Mary’s commence!

Decided to go the 3 RB route again with 2 of my favorite plays on the slate. Tyler Allgeier’s role is growing at the perfect time to be a home favorite in a great matchup. The Falcons should have no issue playing keep away on offense versus a David Blough led Cardinals offense. Same could be said for Saquon Barkley facing the Nick Foles led Colts. Barkley should get every carry he can handle and has 18 targets in the last 2 games.

Went to one of my favorite skinny stacks by plugging Jelani Woods in at TE. I know I kind of disparaged Foles not 3 sentences ago but he’s been fond of the TE. That reputation continued last week as Woods had 5 targets and 34% of the Colts air yards. With Kylen Granson out again this week I expect the freakish Woods to at least match his 69% route rate in a much better matchup vs. the Giants (6th most DK points per game).

On defense this week I’m feeling a few pay ups. With the financial freedom here I decided to splurge with the Chiefs. The Broncos have a historically bad scoring offense, just fired their coach and their offensive line has the 2nd worst adjusted sack rate in the NFL per Football Outsiders. With the Kansas City offense likely to force a negative script, the opportunities for sacks and picks should be plentiful.

QB: Joe Burrow at New England DraftKings salary: 7,000

RB: Alvin Kamara at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 6,800

RB: Jamaal Williams at Carolina DraftKings salary: 5,200

WR: Ja’Marr Chase at New England DraftKings salary: 8,300

WR: DK Metcalf at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 7,100

WR: Jakobi Meyers vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 4,800

TE: Mitchell Wilcox at New England DraftKings salary: 2,800

FLEX: DJ Moore vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 5,500

DST: Texans Def at Tennessee DraftKings salary: 2,500

Reasoning: One of the things I do in preparation for a slate is write down a list of players who didn’t meet expectations the week before that I think could fall under the radar for that reason. I just looked back at that list and all 3 players made this lineup *alignment*. Two of them are in my primary stack (Chase and Meyers). Ja’Marr Chase sorta kinda got there with a TD but the explosive plays we’re accustomed to seeing didn’t…it wasn’t for lack of trying though. He had a healthy 13 targets, 4 of which were in the redzone and 113 air yards. The matchup isn’t a great one but it’s also not a worrisome one either and honestly, with the kind of opportunity that Chase has, the way they hunt touches for him combined with his talent,,,you should be aggressively playing him regardless.

Hayden Hurst is expected to return and with his absence only being a couple games i’d expect him to be a near full time player. If he’s ruled out you could swap down to Mitchell Wilcox and upgrade elsewhere. Jakobi Meyers PS5 controller might have froze on him at the end of that Patriots/Raiders game last week but if people let that influence them not to play the only reliable piece of this Patriots pass offense at a mere 4800, I want to take advantage of that.

The 3rd member of my redemption list is Alvin Kamara. Now this one has some clear pros and cons. He ran one fewer route than David Johnson last week, the game has a 32 point total, he’s only scored a TD in one game this season, TAYSOM HILL…one the other hand, this Browns run defense is awful, he handled 23 of the 27 RB touches last week and he’s at a really good price point. Kamara is gonna have to do this in a different way than we’re accustomed in all likelihood. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a 5 catch game but I think the 100 yard bonus is squarely in play versus this run defense and conditions (27 mph winds). I expect his rostership to be minuscule compared to last week.

My RB2 play also carries some risk but has some upside. The Panthers want to establish the run and hide their QB on offense and while that would have set them up for success in this matchup earlier in the season, #OurLions have shored their run defense up in dramatic fashion. The Lions have held opponents under 100 yards rushing in 4 of their last 5 games. Setting them up to control this game and thus run the football versus this average at best Panthers run defense. The Lions backfield is messy no doubt but the messiness never really prevents Jamaal Williams from getting double digit carries and most if not all the goal line carries. I doubled down on that by stacking him with the Lions defense, may the sacks and short fields be plentiful. Here’s to multiple pelvic thrusts in the end zone *Cheers*

DK Metcalf is the duh play of the week. No Tyler Lockett in all likelihood will raise his already very strong target share to eilte levels, we expect a negative game script and the Chiefs have given up the most TDs to WRs in the NFL. Isaiah Hodgins projects as one of the better values on the week as a full time boundary player in a beautiful matchup versus this Vikings vulnerable zone defense.

Update: Due to the Hayden Hurts rule I’ve made the following changes to the lineup.

In: Mitchell Wilcox, DJ Moore, Texans Def

Out: Hayden Hurst, Isaiah Hodgins, Lions Def

Wilcox keeps the Bengals double stack in place, he ran 73% of routes last week and should be good for a handful of targets at a near minimum price point. Need one of those targets to land In pay dirt.

Decided to pay down at DST and get aggressive with this non Derrick Henry lineup. The Texans have competed well in back to back weeks versus 2 of the leagues top offenses and the Titans just lost another OL starter and will have inexperienced player caller.

That pay down afforded me the money to go up to DJ Moore. Amon Ra St. Brown/Jamaal Williams – DJ Moore is one of my favorite skinny stacks on the week. I expect the Lions to force the Panthers into more drop backs and the matchup is a good one.

QB: Dak Prescott at Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 6,200

RB: Josh Jacobs vs. New England DraftKings salary: 8,100

RB: Travis Etienne vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 6,000

WR: CeeDee Lamb at Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 7,300

WR: Christian Kirk vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 6,600

WR: Michael Gallup at Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 4,500

TE: Jordan Akins vs. Kansas City DraftKings salary: 2,700

FLEX: Isiah Pacheco at Houston DraftKings salary: 5,900

DST: Falcons Def at New Orleans DraftKings salary: 2,500

Reasoning: I knew very early in the week that Dallas stacks were going to factor heavily in what I was doing. Losing Mike White in that Jets/Lions game only intensified that (I know, I know). Prescott isn’t getting great volume but for an offense as efficient as Dallas’ is, he has to have some gaudy numbers games in him in the right circumstances…well, I think we’ve found those circumstances.

The Jaguars pass defense is among the worst in the league in most metrics, they play at a top 10 neutral pace and have a burgeoning young QB and offense that can push back and keep the Cowboys foot on the pedal. Dalton Schultz is the obvious double stack partner here but he’s going to be popular so I found a way to differentiate with Gallup. What I like about this pivot outside of rostership is for it to hit it likely represents a different offensive route for Dallas – Deep shots and 50/50 balls to Gallup over boring red zone strikes to Schultz give us a better crack at that 300 yard bonus. The double run back gives me more differentiation for good measure. Christian Kirk has a good slot matchup and while Etienne has been quiet in recent weeks his workload as a runner hasn’t. His 24 routes run last week were his highest total since week 5, now he wasn’t targeted last week and I’m not suddenly expecting many here either but the Cowboys strong pass rush could potentially push a few check downs his way.

Josh McDaniels comments on Josh Jacobs’ this week were as clarifying as you can get. Expect him to play and continue his voluminous ways which I’m leaning into despite the tough-ish matchup. The Patriots have been a shaky offense and could be without their 2 best skill guys in Rhamondre Stevenson and Jakobi Meyers, lessening the already slimmer chances they could truly play keep away on offense.

My secondary stack came together so smoothly. The Chiefs are a big favorite in a beautiful RB matchup versus the Texans. Giving Pacheco double digits carries should likely bare fruit at his price even if he isn’t very involved in the pass game. Plugging in Pacheco gave me the chance to follow my true passion – finding an excuse to play Jordan Akins. He’ll be in a likely negative game script, has been one of the more efficient TE’s when he gets opportunities, racking up strong YAC numbers. With the Texans still missing Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, he should see a boost in opportunity, behind Jerry Rice..I mean Chris Moore, of course.

My DST play follows the same playbook as last week, attacking a division matchup in an attempt to gain leverage. Alvin Kamara looks like a great play this week and I’ll be playing him like everyone else but nobody should be confusing the Saints (21st ranked scoring offense) with some offensive juggernaut that will come in an steamroll the Falcons. When these teams faced off in week 1, Kamara had 46 total yards on 12 touches. Then there’s the New Orleans perennially shut down rush defense being down a tick (10th in EPA per rush, 4.5 yards per carry). Whose to say the Falcons are aren’t able to play keep away with their run heavy approach? A cheap, contrarian defense versus a middling offense…here for it.

QB: Patrick Mahomes at Denver DraftKings salary: 8,000

RB: Dalvin Cook at Detroit DraftKings salary: 7,300

RB: Miles Sanders at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 6,200

WR: Jerry Jeudy vs. Kansas City DraftKings salary: 5,400

WR: DJ Chark vs. Minnesota DraftKings salary: 4,300

WR: Isaiah Hodgins vs. Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 3,500

TE: Travis Kelce at Denver DraftKings salary: 7,600

Flex: Zonovan Knight at Buffalo DraftKings salary: 5,100

DST: Browns Def at Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 2,600

Reasoning: I’ve been trying to double stack the Chiefs all year and my thoughts have ranged from “MVS is running the most routes, eventually he’s going to start getting deep targets” to “Maybe I was too low on Juju to start the year” to “Here comes Skyy!” to “Toney #freed!”. I’ve been down bad enough in this process that I’ve tried to identify who would play the “mecole hardman role” – that schemed touch TD is like trying to find a needle in a haystack amongst this group. This week though, as pointed out by John Daigle…Mahomes is so low rostered that chasing that 2nd piece isn’t as necessary. Anyone who tries to stack this game will likely do so with cheap WRs on both sides and cheap TE cover boy Greg Dulcich, going with just the single stack and running it back with Jeudy probably ensures differentiation. If anybody for Denver is going to give Kansas City enough of a nudge to stay aggressive halfway through the 4th quarter, I’d say it’s Jeudy.

The Vikings/Lions game is the premier one on the slate. Like everyone else I’ll be playing it aggressively. I love that I was able to do so here without the most popular pieces of the game. I’m not completely sold on the Vikings and the Lions have pulled at my heart strings since the summer…with that being said, Dalvin Cook SHOULD be a home favorite RB here. While I understand people’s concerns with his targets lately, he did run his highest percentage of the season last week, and it’s not like his numbers have dropped to rock bottom (9 targets in the last 3 games). He’s dominating RB touches in a great game environment and everybody will play Justin Jefferson and Amon St. Brown over him. An easy way to get different. DJ Chark versus a non confrontational Vikings secondary makes all the sense as a run back.

Went with another under the radar play with risk with the other RB spot. The Eagles passing offense called a BBQ chicken alert last week on the Titans pass defense, opting not to run it at their stout run defense and attack their secondary. This week they face a Giants defense giving up a healthy 5.1 yards per carry. Sanders will need TD(s) to get there but his 5 targets in the last 2 games give me at least a tiny bit more comfort. Isaiah Hodgins has become a near every down player for a Giant offense down on weapons. A negative script seems likely, the Eagles stonewalled the Derrick Henry last week with the return of Jordan Davis and Saquon Barkley could miss this game and funnel a couple more short area targets to Hodgins. He could flirt with 8 to 10 targets at a near minimum salary.

Zonovan Knight has taken full advantage of his recent opportunity. He gives the Jets a hammer element in the run game that meshes well with their defense and isn’t a zero in the pass game by any means. I kinda hope Michael Carter plays, suppressing the rostership of Knight. There’s a chance the Jets believe Knight is their guy.

I’m not gonna try to hustle you at DST, this is a punt play to save salary. When you roster Mahomes and Kelce you gotta hit the clearance rack somewhere. Low key though, this play has a couple paths. After last week’s big win in KC, if there were a let down spot this would be it. A division opponent, one that has beat them the last 4 meetings. The Bengals offensive line has given up the 7th most sacks on the season and if the game goes the shootout route that could be helpful.

QB: Trevor Lawrence at Detroit DraftKings salary: 5,900

RB: Aaron Jones at Chicago DraftKings salary: 6,900

RB: Jamaal Williams vs. Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 6,000

WR: Amon Ra St. Brown vs. Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 7,100

WR: Christian Kirk at Detroit DraftKings salary: 6,300

WR: Garrett Wilson at Minnesota DraftKings salary: 5,300

TE: Evan Engram at Detroit DraftKings salary: 3,000

Flex: DK Metcalf at Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 6,700

DST: Dolphins Def at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 2,500

Reasoning: This Lions-Jaguars game could resemble a competitive ping pong game with tons of scoring back and forth. It’s one I wanted to invest in but the relative popularity of Trevor Lawrence gave me some pause. Ultimately I felt like I could be aggressive and unique enough to make it work but going with the double run back and going with Kirk and Engram over last week’s lineup hit Zay Jones. Especially considering Kirk’s slot matchup. You don’t have to threaten me with a good time correlating my TE for 3K. The Lions giving up the 4th most DK points per game to TE’s is icing on the cake. Amon Ra St. Brown will be popular and for good reason…his volume is rivaled by very few and the matchup is a good one as the Jaguars defense has steadily regressed and have given up the 3rd most TDs to the WR position. Jamaal Williams continues to get the most rushing volume in this Lions offense, an offense that has been cash in red zone (3rd in the NFL). Fingers crossed for Williams’ 6th multiple TD game.

I tried to get a secondary stack into this lineup but every one I landed on made me feel like I was sacrificing too much. Maybe it’s the matchy matchy tendencies of my generation but it feels like too many colors in my outfit…however, looking at some of the adidas pants, nike shoe looking winning gpp lineups over this season, I might as well get a lil colorful myself.

Aaron Jones remains the clear lead RB and had a season high in routes run last week. The matchup versus what’s left of the Bears defense is a beautiful one.

Garrett Wilson will be popular but I think my lineup is different enough to withstand it. He’s one of the rare players in a league full of great athletes that just seems to be moving at a different speed than the corners tasked with defending him. With competency at QB and a decisive share of targets, i’ll continue to play him while his price point doesn’t accurately represent his profile.

DK Metcalf is flying under the radar this week and I love his opportunity. The Rams middling pass rush will be without their main cog as Aaron Donald is set to miss the game. Geno Smith has been money in clean pockets (77.8% completion rate per player profiler) and versus zone, which the Rams play at one of the highest rates in the league. Metcalf has one of the higher ceilings at the position this week.

On defense this week I’m opting to play the shoot out angle. The Dolphins will likely be without both their OT’s and they defend the run much better than they defend the pass but sport a more than respectable pass rush. With the amount of drop backs in this game trending towards the over, I’m gonna see if I can steal a sack fumble or pick 6 from Jimmy G at a cheap price and lower rostership.