Month: January 2023

QB: Patrick Mahomes vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 7,600

RB: Christian McCaffrey at Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 8,000

RB: Jerick McKinnon vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 5,400

WR: Quez Watkins vs. San Francisco DraftKings salary: 3,100

WR: Ja’Marr Chase at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 7,600

WR: Tyler Boyd at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 3,800

TE: Travis Kelce vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 7,800

Flex: Marquez Valdez-Scantling DraftKings salary: 3,600

DST: Eagles Def vs. San Francisco DraftKings salary: 2,800

Reasoning: Full this disclosure here, this started out as a Jalen Hurts lineup. Had it all punched in, I liked it, but a phrase just kept popping up in my mind…

Scared money don’t make none…and while I believe Hurts and Burrow are the guys you should be playing mostly this week I couldn’t in good conscience try to get you to the biggest of bags and not at least try to put together the rare underdog Mahomes lineup.

So what’s the approach? Obviously Travis Kelce is a must play but how else do we get there? Jerick McKinnon is the other kinda obvious stacking partner even though he’s a running back. He had his first zero target game of the season last week, something I highly doubt we see a repeat of. At his price even if it’s just catches and TD potential, I think it’s a strong play.

I’m not done yet though, I need another differentiator but figuring out these Kansas City WR’s is like playing ABACADABA on one of them old scantron tests (yes, I’m old).

It seems like the stance the field will somewhat take is playing Ka’Darius Toney and while he’s at a good price and has insane talent, I think people are playing him more so anticipating a hobbled Mahomes that will be getting the ball out quick. Hobbled Mahomes doesn’t get us to the money. So right off top I’m going to shift by playing MVS for much of the same reasons I played him last week. Routes run and air yards. He only had 33 air yards last week but that was with Mahomes missing time and then coming back hobbled. He had over 100 in each of the 2 games prior to that.

Now let’s not get it twisted, it’s a thin and risky play but it comes with being in the Mahomes business. For him to hit his ceiling we’re gonna see some random TDs, hopefully MVS is on the receiving end of one, preferably from 50+ yards out.

Went with one obvious and one not quite as obvious run back. Ja’Marr Chase is so thoroughly locked into volume on a weekly basis. Even if we are just talking schemed touches and hitches because the defense is terrified of him going over the top…he’s going to find his way to an ideal floor and we know what his ceiling looks like if he gets loose. Tyler Boyd is a great play at his price that I’m surprised isn’t getting more buzz. He’s got a good matchup, will run routes on 80+ percent of passing plays and benefits from the 2 high looks that Chase and Higgins necessitate.

Ended up with a small CMC-Quez stack to round things out on the position player side. There’s nothing i can tel you on CMC you don’t already know. At 8K he feels like an auto play. While Jordan Davis and all the beef that resides on the Philly front line will make things difficult for him we are still talking about an Uber talented runner in a Shanahan run game who also splits out and is targeted like a receiver. Quez Watkins is another dart that carries upside. In the 4 games that Jalen Hurts has thrown over 300 yards this season, Watkins averages 9.9 DraftKings points per game. Because of the stout nature of the 49ers run defense I expect Hurts to throw early and often and Quez’s field stretching profile matches the “weakness” of the San Francisco defense. At 3100 he’s the premier punt on the slate.

On defense I started to go with 49ers. Usually If I’m fading a popular QB like I am with Hurts here, I try to get aggressive in my lineups in telling the story that the player won’t do well. That’s a lot tougher to do on a 2 game slate. I’m already zigging with this Mahomes triple stack, too much Hurts disrespect may be putting too much dip on my chip. The Eagles defense get a rookie QB whose played extremely well but also showed a capped ceiling last week versus a defense not as talented as this one.

QB: Brock Purdy vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 5,400

RB: Christian McCaffery vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 8,000

RB: Tony Pollard at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 6,100

WR: AJ Brown vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 7,600

WR: Marquez Valdez-Scantling vs. Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 3,800

WR: CeeDee Lamb at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 7,300

TE: Evan Engram at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 4,300

Flex: Brandon Aiyuk vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 5,000

DST: Bengals Def at Buffalo DraftKings salary: 2,400

Reasoning: I wanted to find a game to invest heavily in and it became clearer over time that Dallas-San Francisco was that game. Kyle Shanahan has this offense rolling in a way that outside of a heavy turnover game I find it difficult to find scenario in which they don’t score a good amount and in turn push Dallas into a higher volume of pass attempts, something we’ve wanted to see from Dak all year.

Both QBs project well for me and there are condensed weapons on both sides but Purdy’s price and stacking partners allow me to accomplish a bit more. Going with the QB-RB stack and Aiyuk over Deebo/Kittle I think will set us up to be different and have a combo that acts as double leverage on Debo’s rushing and receiving upside.

CeeDee Lamb is an obvious run back as a locked in, inside/outside threat but I needed another piece. Dalton Schultz is where everyone would go so to pivot I went with Tony Pollard. The matchup is a difficult one but if I’m projecting this offensive environment to be as fruitful as I think it can be I like him as a lower rostered RB2 to pair with the popular CMC. Even versus a stout front 7 i think the ultra efficient Pollard can create a couple big gains, a few catches and get into the end zone. This slate lacks another obvious RB play so why not invest in my primary stack?

Went with AJ Brown as a one off play on a slate where I wanted to invest in WR. Of the Diggs, Chase, AJB category I think he has the highest ceiling outcome considering the matchups.

My 2nd favorite game on the slate is KC/Jax so I like getting in the secondary slate I did. I’d prefer to correlate tight end with my QB/primary stack but it didn’t work out in this case so I went with the player I feel like is probably the best value at the position on this slate in Evan Engram. His price isn’t inflated, he’s super involved, odds favor a negative game script and his slot/underneath usage meshes with where KC gives up production. My run back isn’t for the faint of heart and if I’m keeping it a buck, I ain’t crazy about it either but hey, we can’t feel great about every piece of a successful GPP lineup. MVS’s boundary matchup isn’t good but he should play 60% of snaps, has 100 plus air yards in each of the last 2 games and at a mere 3,800 salary he could get me where I need to go in one play. For those 3 max or just more risk adverse players, Richie James fits into this lineup salary as a replacement and makes sense as a AJ Brown run back.

As the slates have gotten smaller I’ve ventured even further from the popular defenses. I also try to aggressively attack the situations I’m fading. It’s weird to say the Bills are off because they’ve essentially averaged 30 points per game since the middle of November but I don’t feel like this is a team clicking on on cylinders. Their run game isn’t created big plays and outside of Diggs they’ve gotten very uneven performance from their ancillary pieces.

In comes this Bengals unit whose perennially underrated DC Lou Anarumo does a great job mixing pass coverages and pressures. The Bills falling below expectations and turning over the ball a time or 2 would not be a surprise.