QB: Brock Purdy vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 5,400
RB: Christian McCaffery vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 8,000
RB: Tony Pollard at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 6,100
WR: AJ Brown vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 7,600
WR: Marquez Valdez-Scantling vs. Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 3,800
WR: CeeDee Lamb at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 7,300
TE: Evan Engram at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 4,300
Flex: Brandon Aiyuk vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 5,000
DST: Bengals Def at Buffalo DraftKings salary: 2,400
Reasoning: I wanted to find a game to invest heavily in and it became clearer over time that Dallas-San Francisco was that game. Kyle Shanahan has this offense rolling in a way that outside of a heavy turnover game I find it difficult to find scenario in which they don’t score a good amount and in turn push Dallas into a higher volume of pass attempts, something we’ve wanted to see from Dak all year.
Both QBs project well for me and there are condensed weapons on both sides but Purdy’s price and stacking partners allow me to accomplish a bit more. Going with the QB-RB stack and Aiyuk over Deebo/Kittle I think will set us up to be different and have a combo that acts as double leverage on Debo’s rushing and receiving upside.
CeeDee Lamb is an obvious run back as a locked in, inside/outside threat but I needed another piece. Dalton Schultz is where everyone would go so to pivot I went with Tony Pollard. The matchup is a difficult one but if I’m projecting this offensive environment to be as fruitful as I think it can be I like him as a lower rostered RB2 to pair with the popular CMC. Even versus a stout front 7 i think the ultra efficient Pollard can create a couple big gains, a few catches and get into the end zone. This slate lacks another obvious RB play so why not invest in my primary stack?
Went with AJ Brown as a one off play on a slate where I wanted to invest in WR. Of the Diggs, Chase, AJB category I think he has the highest ceiling outcome considering the matchups.
My 2nd favorite game on the slate is KC/Jax so I like getting in the secondary slate I did. I’d prefer to correlate tight end with my QB/primary stack but it didn’t work out in this case so I went with the player I feel like is probably the best value at the position on this slate in Evan Engram. His price isn’t inflated, he’s super involved, odds favor a negative game script and his slot/underneath usage meshes with where KC gives up production. My run back isn’t for the faint of heart and if I’m keeping it a buck, I ain’t crazy about it either but hey, we can’t feel great about every piece of a successful GPP lineup. MVS’s boundary matchup isn’t good but he should play 60% of snaps, has 100 plus air yards in each of the last 2 games and at a mere 3,800 salary he could get me where I need to go in one play. For those 3 max or just more risk adverse players, Richie James fits into this lineup salary as a replacement and makes sense as a AJ Brown run back.
As the slates have gotten smaller I’ve ventured even further from the popular defenses. I also try to aggressively attack the situations I’m fading. It’s weird to say the Bills are off because they’ve essentially averaged 30 points per game since the middle of November but I don’t feel like this is a team clicking on on cylinders. Their run game isn’t created big plays and outside of Diggs they’ve gotten very uneven performance from their ancillary pieces.
In comes this Bengals unit whose perennially underrated DC Lou Anarumo does a great job mixing pass coverages and pressures. The Bills falling below expectations and turning over the ball a time or 2 would not be a surprise.
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