Month: February 2023

-Albert Okwuegbunam

Albert O was one of the most exciting breakout candidates coming into the 2022 season. That promise never came to fruition as the Broncos had a historically bad scoring offense and he eventually fell out of favor with the coaching staff.

While Greg Dulcich is the incumbent and is probably a more well-rounded player, can we say definitively that he’s a better player?

That’s a question for new head coach, Sean Payton…a coach who has an impressive history of tight-end production. Jimmy Graham is the obvious one, but Jeremy Shockey was on pace for 70 + catches in back-to-back years to start Payton’s New Orleans tenure. Ben Watson caught 74 balls in 2015, and Coby Fleener caught 54 balls that same season and followed up with 50 in 2016. Payton is notorious for taking a healthy amount of shots down the seam to TEs…I would imagine once we get to training camp and he sees a 6’5’’ dude running 4.49 that his reaction could be very similar to Jerry Rosburg’s when he took over as interim coach last season, why isn’t he playing more?

Albert O probably hit waivers in your league when dynasty managers got into roster pinches, and if he didn’t he could probably be had for roster fodder or a late pick. He’s a lottery ticket worth taking because the upside is even higher than it was last year.

-Foster Moreau

Coaches love a TE that can block like Kel loves orange soda, and that’s Moreau’s calling card. The 25-year-old UFA will have no shortage of suitors on the open market. Now it’s very possible that Moreau winds up in a situation like the one he’s played his entire career, a sub-package blocker with more limited pass-catching opportunities but there is a chance he finds a new home with more of a fantasy-friendly role.

While he is a classic Y tight end, Moreau doesn’t lack for athleticism. At the NFL combine he ran a 95th percentile 20-yard shuttle, had a 36 ½ inch vert, and ran a 4.66 forty. His 12 yards per catch average the last 2 seasons lends credence to the idea that he could be a legit producer if given more of a chance to do so.

The Dolphins, Texans, and Titans all come to mind as teams that could use an inline presence and if he’s playing a decisive number of the snaps he could sneak his way into the low-end TE1/TE2 borderline if the TDs break right.

If your dynasty roster is hurting at TE that could be appealing to you. If you’re stacked at the position, he offers you the opportunity to stash him and flip him for a late-round pick or another bench asset if he lands in a good spot in free agency and gets a couple of favorable off-season coach quotes.

-James Mitchell

The in-season trade of TJ Hockenson leaves the Lions with a hole at TE this off-season. One of only 2 holdovers currently on the roster, James Mitchell is an interesting prospect with a lot of natural ability. Because of the torn ACL, he suffered as a senior at Virginia Tech, we weren’t able to get athletic testing numbers during the draft process, but the tape shows an athletic player with some catch-point ability and open-field speed.

After the Hockenson trade, Mitchell’s playing time picked up, nothing substantial but that could have been by design considering the injury. With a healthy offseason to further adjust to NFL life, Mitchell could show himself worthy of a more defined role on offense. An offense in Detroit that we can now consider bankable.

Working against Mitchell is the fact that the Lions have 5 selections in the first 81 picks of this coming draft, a draft that is thought to be one of the most talented TE drafts in recent memory. It’s easy to see a scenario where he’s a relative fantasy afterthought by May, but if the Lions have decided they’d rather save money/draft capital at TE, Mitchell makes for an interesting deep league stash.

One of the major storylines of the 2023 NFL offseason is the QB carousel. Many teams are in various stages of “down badness”, a symptom of desperation that will push decision-makers to try to make a splash at the position at all costs.

There could be as many as 13 teams with new signal callers next season and probably 9 or 10 at minimum. So, let’s look at the supply…Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, and likely Aaron Rodgers (depending on what the darkness tells him) are the notable veterans that will be available. Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson are the projected 1st round rookie signal callers.

That’s 7, and we know that some teams will be hesitant to start rookie QBs so banking on all 4 QB prospects to be week 1 starters probably isn’t the best bet.

So, who’s going to start all these games? Let’s take a look at a few players who could be on your waiver wires or could be had on the cheap that could return some value.

-Gardner Minshew

Minshew has spent the last 2 seasons in Philly as a backup to Jalen Hurts. In 2021 he appeared in 4 games, starting 2, and had a QB rating of 104.8. In 2022 he appeared in 5 games, again starting 2 and with a more open Eagles passing game he managed to produce 7.74 net yards gained per pass attempt…a number that only Tua Tagovailoa eclipsed last season.

There’s also the potential for rushing production. In his longest stretch of games as a starter in 2019, he averaged 24 yards per game in 14 appearances (12 starts). Not gaudy numbers by any stretch but icing we’ll take on a bye week or injury fill-in cake.

Now don’t get it twisted, I’m not trying to convince you that Minshew is some uber-talented QB being deprived of an opportunity, but he has shown the ability to produce on at least a moderate level when given the opportunity, and opportunity may come knocking this offseason.

What do newly hired head coaches love to do most? If your answer is making fake explosive noises to describe their players, that’s a really good guess, but not quite.

The correct answer is, to hire people they used to work with…and in Minshew’s case, he’s got 2 potential ins with the Cardinals and Colts respectively hiring Eagles coordinators.

Jim Irsay’s loose lips seem to have telegraphed the drafting of a 1st round QB, making Minshew a potential bridge that knows the system…and with the Cardinals, Kyler Murray is slated to miss time at the beginning of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL, giving the Cards a need at the position as well.

Minshew could serve as a depth option for your dynasty roster or potentially fetch you a late-round pick for someone in a tight spot at the position that believes in Minshew-mania.

-Jacoby Brissett

Brissett had 37 starts under his belt coming into this past season but seemed to take a bit of a jump in play in his 11 starts for the Browns. He finished with the highest completion percentage, net yards per attempt, and QB rating of his career.

Now his progression didn’t reach Geno Smith levels, but he was poised, made good decisions, was accurate on the move, and supported a quality fantasy season for receiver Amari Cooper.

Brissett showed he can keep a ship on course and I would imagine he’ll have offers after the top veterans come off the board. He’s got history with Frank Reich from his time in Indy and could serve as a bridge to a young QB in Carolina. The Buccaneers are tight up against the salary cap and could use a cost-effective option in the short term. He also spent his rookie year with Josh McDaniels in New England, and while we expect the Raiders to aim higher…Aaron Rodgers can only Quarterback one team at a time.

Getting 11 starts out of Brissett like last year is probably too ambitious but unless he signs a high-end backup deal in a spot where the starter is locked in, I’d guess he makes some appearances.

-Tyler Huntley

It’s not too often that a pro bowl QB falls this far under the radar but here we are. In all seriousness though, Huntley has shown an ability to keep an offense on schedule. He’s a timing-based, short-area passer with good mobility and 4.56 wheels.

In an offense built around those attributes w/pass catching talent and scheme upgrades over what he had in Baltimore, I could certainly see someone talking themselves into it on a short-term basis.

If things go sideways in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson it could be there. I don’t anticipate this being the case but if Lamar is tagged and opts not to report early on, Huntley could be in line to start games early on. The Texans figure to draft a QB with their 1st pick but may want to bring in someone with experience early on who can execute over the middle of the field and limit mistakes ala Brock Purdy.

Huntley struggled a bit last season compared to the season prior, but I believe that was at least partly injury related. If someone dropped him after the season ended I think he’s worth a stash while we wait to see how the QB landscape shakes out.

-Kevin Harris

Pierre Strong gets the buzz of this Patriots backup RB group. He was drafted higher, ran a 4.37 40 at the combine, and was rumored to be thought of as a long-term James White replacement…but Now Stevenson ended up healthy enough to take the lion’s share of the work but the intention in that move stands.

A question for this team going forward will be whether the pure “James White role” is still a thing and how much of it has Rhamondre Stevenson already absorbed.

A role we should probably be more concerned with is the Damien Harris role. If he leaves in free agency, Kevin Harris is a far better fit as a between-the-tackle replacement. He’s a 221-pound, compact back with good vision, runs with power and finishes runs. He ran 4.56 at his pro day which isn’t blazing but it’s adequate, I think his play speed is maybe a tick faster. He can have a role of substance in 2023 and he’s probably free or near free right now.

-Jerome Ford

With Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson both slated to hit unrestricted free agency, Ford is the only other back besides Nick Chubb currently on the roster. Ford is a well-rounded RB back who runs with a bit more power than his leaner frame may suggest. The former Alabama transfer is also more than comfortable catching the football and a very willing pass protector, traits that will aid him in his quest for Kareem Hunt’s role in 2023.

The Browns will certainly add competition but Ford is said to have impressed in camp. With Nick Chubb exceeding 70% of snaps in a game just twice in the last 3 seasons, the path for playing time on some level is there.

-Eno Benjamin

Benjamin was a late-round pick in 2020 who despite his talent, struggled to get on the field until last year. He finally carved out a role with determined running and pass game comfort, averaging 5.1 yards per touch thru the 1st half of the season before his surprising release from the Arizona Cardinals.

He apparently had issues with his role when starter James Conner returned and that led to the Cardinals letting him go. He spent just 2 games as a member of the Texans before they decided to do the same and eventually closed out the year with the Saints.

Much like the case with Jerome Ford, Eno finds himself as the lone backup currently on the roster but his upside case is a bit more appealing with a potential suspension looming for Alvin Kamara.

Now considering Kamara’s potential legal troubles and rising cap number, I fully expect the Saints to draft an RB at some point but Benjamin certainly has an opportunity to carve out a role. 

-Trey Sermon/Kennedy Brooks

With Miles Sanders and Boston Scott hitting free agency and a Jalen Hurts extension looming the Eagles could look at the RB position as a place to save money. Sermon is more physically imposing while Brooks is more detail driven but both are inexpensive fits to their inside zone running game.

For an analytic-driven like the Eagles, I think a pay-as-you-go approach at RB is more likely than a long-term extension for Miles Sanders. With Kenneth Gainwell entrenched on 3rd down, I would not be surprised to see one of these guys earn a secondary early down role.

Bonus tip:

The value of your late-round picks will get a bump this year. As opposed to last year, this RB draft class is deep and talented. There are also a few very large RB cap numbers that could lead to some changing of the guard in a few spots which give you some lottery ticket potential. I think you’ll be able to turn those later 2nd and 3rd round picks into worthwhile RB fliers so hold your picks and try to acquire more if you have the roster space.

Captain: Dallas Goedert DraftKings salary: 9,600

Flex: Eagles D/ST DraftKings salary: 3,600

Flex: Kenneth Gainwell DraftKings salary: 5,000

Flex: Jalen Hurts DraftKings salary: 11,200

Flex: Travis Kelce DraftKings salary: 10,600

Flex: Miles Sanders DraftKings salary: 7,800

Reasoning: I see why people gravitate to 4-2 or 3-3 builds in showdown, it just feels a lot more comfortable. Honestly it also feels like I can paint the picture of what I’m trying to accomplish with my lineup a little clearer as well but clear and comfortable doesn’t get us to the top of leaderboards.

Dallas Goedert at captain is the first step at differentiating here. With the Chiefs overwhelming likely to push this Eagles offense into more drop backs then their last 2 opponents, I like Goedert’s chances of an 8 or so target game with a couple of those coming in the red zone. The matchup is a good one as this KC defense has allowed the 5th most TD receptions to TE’s. Their young combo of inside linebackers are high on thump and pursuit but have issues in coverage. With the Eagles offensive weapons giving you so much to account for, I think Goedert winds up being the necessary concession attention wise for the Chiefs defense.

With Goedert in the captain the obvious follow up is playing Jalen Hurts at flex. You could make the argument for contrarian sake to go Mahomes instead but with Hurts’ rushing upside and chances at a ceiling game with more resistance from the opposing offense…I think he’s the best play on the slate, regardless of price.

Stacking Eagles can be tricky because of how condensed the production is in non blowout games. I’m essentially treating Gainwell like a receiver at his mid tier price, hoping to get a handful of catches on 3rd down and maybe he can turn one of his say, 7-8 touches into a TD.

Miles Sanders has been a popular sneaky play this week amongst the fantasy community and it’s easy to see why. Each of the last 2 games have set up well for him in the 1st half, only for him not to be needed in the 2nd half. The gravity of Hurts legs combined with the lid lifting of AJ Brown and Devonta Smith as well as the likelihood that KC doesn’t crowd the box due to these factors, and Sanders is set up for rushing success once again.

The lack of Eagles value plays led me to their D/ST. Mahomes gets rid of the ball and avoids sacks with the best of them but we are still talking about a player dealing with a high ankle sprain, a team whose tackles have had pass protection issues at times with their tackles and a defense who had a whopping 70 sacks this season. It’s fair to expect they get home a couple times, fingers crossed for a sack fumble.

I know I’m going Eagles onslaught but I do see this as a competitive game. My hope is that with the Eagles strong outside corner play and pass rush that there isn’t time enough for big plays down the field and things get funneled inside the numbers to Kelce and Juju. Going away from Mahomes obviously means I need his TD passes to go to Kelce and probably not exceed 2, but if I can accomplish and Smith-Schuster can stay in his 5-50 and no TD wheelhouse I think we’ll be in good shape.

Ultimately this lineup has a contrarian captain, leaves 2,200 in salary, plays 2 Eagles RBs, doesn’t feature Mahomes nor either standpoint Eagles WR. I’d say the duplication should be minimal but features enough upside to do some damage. If you’d like to get a little less risky,…you could swap in Harrison Butker for the Eagles D/ST.

With the season coming to a close I’d like to send a special thanks to everyone that has continued to support my fantasy content over the years. I can’t tell you how much it means as I continue this journey to make my way in this industry. Be on the look out for off-season content coming real soon. The grind don’t stop.