Carey’s Fantasy Football Study Hall

Posted on by Michael Crawford

By Carey Stevenson

Just how big a slice of the Bills running back pie will James Cook see when the season starts? When the Bills signed Damien Harris in free agency, my assumption was that he’d lead the backfield in touches, but camp reports have Cook first in line for carries with healthy passing game involvement. I’ve long felt there was a chance that a false equivalence was being made between the modest free agent deal that JD McKissic ultimately walked away from in comparison to the 2nd round investment the Bills made in Cook. Goal line work is probably me putting too much dip on my chip but Devin Singletary’s near 10% target share and 10-ish carries a game feels like a fair ask with room for more on both fronts. We’re not out of the woods yet, but it’s starting look like we can add Cook to a growing list of attractive non dead zone RBs.

Justin Jefferson is the deserving 1.01 and carries little risk but Cooper Kupp is my prediction for who will finish as the WR1. There are obvious injury concerns but his situation sets up for him to have a career high in targets, which is insane considering the current high is 191, but hear me out…Kupp will simultaneously be playing with the least target competition and the least talented defense of his Rams tenure. He was on pace for 185 targets last season while the Rams played at an uncharacteristic chopped and screwed pace (30th in neutral pace). With a healthier offensive line coming into 2023 I’m going to consider that a blip on the radar, setting Kupp up to shred.

For the Best ball and DFS bro’s…I think you’ll be able to get some splash plays from Falcons ancillary pieces this year. As pointed out by Hayden Winks, the Falcons used play action and threw downfield at the highest rate in the NFL last season. They made better in real life than fantasy additions of Mack Hollins and Scott Miller at Wide receiver. Hollins had 1200 air yards for the Raiders last season, while Miller’s 4.4 wheels give me timely shot play vibes. I expect the Falcons to still be very much run centered but between those aforementioned shot plays and games where game script doesn’t allow them to play keep away…we could see some occasional fireworks in the passing game…and an appearance in my DFS “sprinkle me” plays this season.

The Packers offensive approach this season has a wide range of outcomes. Was their slow pace an Aaron Rodgers thing? Does it remain in place to keep the training wheels on Jordan Love? Or does Matt LaFleur go back to his McVay tree roots and speed things up, stress testing Love before they have to make a long term QB decision (See Jalen Hurts/Eagles 2022).

The Packers were 22nd in 3 WR set usage last season per Hayden Winks…Does the addition of Jayden Reed represent a shift in the same way that we anticipate Jaxon Smith Njigba influencing the Seahawks approach? We’ll get the answers soon enough but there’s a chance that the ceilings of Green Bay’s offensive players are a little higher than we expect.

I just can’t get there with Rachaad White. He’s a volume play in a questionable offense with efficiency concerns of his own. Bucs beat writer, Jenna Laine recently wrote that free agent addition, Chase Edmonds is the 3rd down back in Tampa…nipping away at RB targets that won’t be nearly as plentiful sans Tom Brady. There’s also the possibility that they play slower this year as well. I never fade anyone but he’s not someone on my radar at cost.

Not that i’m banging the table for Michael Pittman at his adp, but I do think he’s being unfairly typecast as a curl route artist because his QB was Matt Ryan. Pittman came into the league as a downfield catchpoint winner and benefits just as much as Alec Pierce from the addition of cannon armed rookie QB, Anthony Richardson.

The Cardinals are such a difficult team to peg. I’m in on James Conner as a non dead zone RB target but I have some ceiling questions. We know ultimately volume is king and that’s the appeal here. As Rich Hribar pointed out, Conner was the RB5 from weeks 10-17 last year and only 2 of those came with Kyler Murray in the lineup but we’re treading into different, slow paced and less 4 WR spread waters that I think will be murkier. At the same time, We’re talking about a defense that was 27th in adjusted sack rate last season that has even less bite with the losses of JJ Watt, Zach Allen and Markus Golden. Couple that with a puny 4.5 win total and the negative game scripts and Colt McCoy check downs could ease my worrying.