| Tier 1-Elite QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB1 | Jalen Hurts | He gets kidnapped before the season starts. | Tougher schedule leads to more shootouts. Hurts’ talent being pushed behind an elite offensive line and front end weapons spell a historic season. |
| QB2 | Patrick Mahomes | See above. | The Chiefs have the 6th hardest schedule and Chris Jones still hasn’t shown up. Mahomes is frightening enough as is but if he gets pushed in a few more games the results will be gaudy. |
| QB3 | Josh Allen | Between the Bills adding 2 between the tackles bangers in the offseason and their preseason commitment to James Cook…maybe they finally start ease up Josh Allen’s carries. | With Damien Harris banged up, Latavius Murray not really being featured in preseason and James Cook not being a standout goal line runner…there’s a realistic world where Josh Allen remains the goal line back/distributor which would give him as good of odds as any to finish as the QB1. |
| QB4 | Lamar Jackson | The drastic offensive shift still has kinks that need to be worked out, leading to some good but not great early fantasy outputs. Feels pretty certain that their will be noticeably less designed run calls. Rashod Bateman and OBJ injury questions linger. | Lamar has been a terrorizing runner playing in a heavy offense with lots of condensed sets…so imagine the damage he can do in the open field with spread formation essentially being the new base? With by far the best weapons and fastest pace of his career, we could be about to see the self actualized version of Lamar Jackson. And the QB1. |
| Tier 2-High End QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB5 | Justin Fields | The Bears offensive approach pre 2022 bye is their preferred one and with more weapons and a little more OL optimism..they lean back into that and don’t leverage Fields’ legs as much. | Continued focus on using his legs as a threat combined with organic progression as a passer could lead to a 2021 Jalen Hurts type of season with room for more if he takes a substantial leap or the pace improves. |
| QB6 | Joe Burrow | The obvious risk is missing time early but he quietly had 5 rushing TDs last season. One would imagine that even if he’s good to go for week 1, they’ll tread lightly on designed runs and he’ll trad lightly on scrambles. For pocket passers we need truly insane passing numbers to make up for a lack of rushing production. | Their lowest of the low aDot is added by their Offensive Tackle shuffle and even with teams playing shell coverage trying to keep Chase in check they are able find more chunk plays. If QB health holds they will have a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses compared to last year as pointed out by Bill Barnwell. They also lost both starting safeties on defense. Both factors could aid shootout potential. |
| QB7 | Justin Herbert | His low YPA isn’t a Joe Lombardi or a Rashawn Slater issue. Quentin Johnston struggles with consistency and forms a time share with Joshua Palmer, leaving them nearly as juice-less as they were last season. | Herbert has the arm talent to challenge every blade of grass on the field and has long been empowered from a pass rate perspective. Health on offense, Quentin Johnston’s yac juice and the addition of Kellen Moore prove to be the Febreze this offense needed for him to reach back to 2021 success. |
| Tier 3-Potential High End QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB8 | Deshaun Watson | 2022 was more erosion than rust. The significant defensive upgrades of Schwartz (play calling), Dalvin Tomlinson(run defense), Za’Darius Smith (pass rush), Juan Thornhill (backend range) combined with the best pure runner in football causes the team to rethink their evolution ideas when the weather gets cold. | The buzz we’ve heard of faster pace, more spread and more pass attempts comes to fruition. His rushing production stays on par and one of their talented young weapons take a leap. |
| QB9 | Trevor Lawrence | Lawrence’s 5th round ADP doesn’t give us much room for error. Extrapolating his 2022 post bye numbers won’t be enough. We need him to hit another gear to pay off that price tag. | Last season’s post bye aggressiveness bump was just the tip of the iceberg. With Calvin Ridley now on board to challenge vertically in a division littered with secondary questions, Tlaw takes another leap into the 4,500 + yard/30 + passing TD category |
| QB10 | Geno Smith | I’ve operated under the premise that Pete Carroll has been playing coy about the Seahawks personnel and the Seahawks are now a base 3 WR team. There’s still a chance that they aren’t and that chance grows if JSN misses significant time early…putting our ceiling scenarios into question. Especially if the defense, which has upgrades at every layer, improves. | Geno’s advanced accuracy numbers motivate the Seahawks to move even further in a fantasy friendly direction schematically (Pat Thorman has noted faster play in preseason). JSN becomes the beautiful chain moving compliment to their pass catching group and their young and talented OL continues to ascend. A top 6 finish is one the table. |
| QB11 | Anthony Richardson | He’s a very inexperienced player who may very soon be losing his most talented weapon. Richardson is a polarizing player whose on a much shorter list this year of late round QB’s with high end upside, making it possible that you may have to take him a round or 2 earlier depending on how your draft falls. | His talent is immense and he couldn’t have landed in a better spot to showcase. Shane Steichen’s history of leveraging QB’s mobility, coupled with his ability to tailor his passing game to fit where his QB is in his development give me good vibes. They’ve also played a lot faster in preseason than one would expect and have vertical weapons in Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman (YES HIM TOO) that match up with the strength of Richardson’s game. There’s also the chance that Jonathan Taylor’s absence puts more on Richardson’s plate from a rushing and playmaking standpoint. |
| QB12 | Daniel Jones | Maybe we’re putting too much dip on his chip? Daboll is so good that he can utilize his mobility and get him to play mistake free football but Jones himself isn’t talented enough to ascend to a higher tier. Brandon Thorn’s 23rd ranked Oline doesn’t take strides and all but assures it. | Adding Waller along with the certainty that there will be an NFL caliber receivers on the field at all times (albeit…INSERT SLOT WR JOKE), coupled with more experience in the system takes Jones from mistake free runner to legitimate fantasy difference maker. His 3.2% passing TD rate will rise even on accident. |
| Tier 4-Potential QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB13 | Dak Prescott | “I’ve been where Kellen has been: Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up,” “But I want to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense. I don’t desire to be the No. 1 offense in the league.” | As jarring as those comments were…like always, Rich Hribar has been a voice of reason. Mike McCarthy has never been a ground and pound coach and their personnel screams 3 WR spread. While they’ll assuredly play slower and run more, there is still room for Dak to produce within that. |
| QB14 | Kirk Cousins | Last year Cousins had the fire pace, pass rate, flammable defense and the 2nd most red zone pass attempts in the NFL…and still couldn’t get above the QB11. The Vikings also added one of the true needle moving defensive play callers in Brian Flores. I find it nearly impossible that their defense will be as bad as last year and if any of the other above factors shift in the wrong direction we could be looking at a streamer/bye week fill in kind of QB. | Jordan Addison caught 100 balls as a 19 year old, I think it’s fair to call him an upgrade over current stage Adam Thiele. There’s also the potential positive TD regression coming for Justin Jefferson. As much as I love the Flores addition, there are enough talent questions to put a cap on how good they can be. Even if the defense is mediocre (A massive win btw), there is still enough stylistic factors going Cousins way to make him worthy if he gets some TD luck. |
| QB15 | Tua Tagovailoa | His down post bye play has been explained away as just injury related but what if it was more adjustment related? LT already banged up on an OL with questions. Coaching staff has also stated a desire to run the ball more and they’ve had confirmed interest in Dalvin Cook and now Jonathan Taylor. They’ve also added one of the true difference making defensive minds in Vic Fangio. | It does feel a bit funny having a QB with two top 12 WR’s at QB15. Mike McDaniel has proven that he can create space and use play action to create chunk plays (3rd in the NFL in explosive pass plays last season).With the Jets and Pats making various degrees offensive strides, more points should be required to compete. |
| QB16 | Jared Goff | Goff feels a lot like Cousins in the sense that plenty went his way last year and he was good (really good considering where he was drafted) but can he be win you a fantasy championship good? The key difference between the 2 is Cousins’ team has a much higher pass rate. The Lions also completely transformed their secondary and should be a lot more formidable. | Ben Johnson is one of the most talented space creators in football, playing in a dome and was given Jahmyr Gibbs (99th percentile speed) and Sam LaPorta (91st percentile speed) to deploy. While they do have WR questions outside of Amon Ra St. Brown from a volume/target earning perspective, Kalif Raymond and Josh Reynolds are reasonably talented downfield threats. Goff could distribute his way to relevance via chunk plays. |
| QB17 | Aaron Rodgers | The Jets play as slow as Rodgers’ phone service was when the Packers tried calling him in the offseason. The OL concerns linger into the offseason and sway the Jets even further to the run. Their monstrous defense keep them there. | Arod steers an efficient offense and hijack’s the green zone offense i.e. 2020. A Davante Adams-ish season for Garrett Wilson and few timely deep shots to Mecole Hardman could push Rodgers into relevance. |
| Tier 5-Potential High End QB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB18 | Jordan Love | The inexperience of Love and his weapons lead to a methodical approach where they ease him into action and lean on Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon. There’s also the chance that he’s just not consistent enough on a down to down basis to be any more than a bye week fill in. | The wide range of outcomes makes this a situation I want to take a chance on. Considering LaFleur’s background, it’s a very good chance that the slow pace they’ve exhibited was a Aaron Rodgers thing. There’s also a chance that instead of hiding him behind a run game, they opt to stress test him to see what they have before making a long term QB decision. Armed with nice arm talent and good mobility…Love is my favorite rags to riches QB bet. |
| QB19 | Matt Stafford | Last year’s uneven and uncharacteristically conservative play from Stafford was more than a blip. The Oline is healthier but just not good. Stafford also has health concerns of his own. | The Rams have the 12th hardest strength of schedule and probably have the least talented defense of the McVay era. If they get back to playing at the normal super fast pace, Stafford could push for an insane amount of attempts. |
| QB20 | Sam Howell | He and Jordan Love have some alignment, the difference here is Howell’s margin for error is noticeably smaller. With new ownership in place, the whole organization is inherently on the hot seat if his play isn’t up to par they have the steady vet Jacoby Brissett waiting in the bullpen. There is also the worry that the Commanders could lean on the run game, especially with Terry McLaurin banged up early. | Like Love, Howell is a come up candidate. He’s an aggressive player with + mobility. With former Chiefs OC Eric Bienemy at the controls now, a breakout candidate in Jahan Dotson at receiver and talented space players like Curtis Samuel and Antonio Gibson in the fold, there’s lots to like. |
| QB21 | Kenny Pickett | Matt Canada’s stale and lethargic approach is less to do with inexperience or inadequate play at QB and more to do with just his overall steez. Sounds like there could be some rollercoaster action with 1st round tackle Broderick Jones on Brandon Thorn’s 28th ranked line. A line better suited to run the ball. | Pickett has had an extremely impressive preseason. He has the surrounding talent and movement skills to make some noise. If Canada cuts things loose a little more and makes some adjustments (Get George Pickens some higher percentage looks please) there could be something here. Every offense in the division has improved and even if he was blindfolded, Pickett should throw more TD passes this season. |
| QB22 | Russell Wilson | Last season wasn’t an outlier and he’s with a coach who won’t bend his offense to fit the way Russ can best create leaving this offense as a run heavy outfit where Wilson is more so along for the ride or in a worst case is on the bench. | Similar to the Patriots, the Broncos get a big offensive coaching bump. Sean Payton will challenge Russ in a way that Nathaniel Hackett coudn’t and the organization of the offense should be night and day different. They’ve invested in their offensive line and even with the injuries they’ve sustained they’ve still got a fair amount of weapons. |
| Tier 6-Mid to Low End QB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB23 | Brock Purdy | The defense and running game is too good for Purdy to try any other dances outside of a 2 step. Without pace, gaudy passing numbers or rushing production he only gets there with insane efficiency. If the run game steals a few more of those TDs, Purdy becomes just a guy from a fantasy standpoint. | Eyeballing the 49ers schedule and it looks a little tougher than the 11th easiest to me. While I expect this defense to remain very good they do have a new coordinator and have questions at corner and edge rusher. If the sliders get tweaked enough to force a few shootouts, Purdy has the weapons to do some damage. |
| QB24 | Kyler Murray | We don’t know if on when he’ll play, which in the short term isn’t a big deal if your league has an IR spot but when he does come back it’s not to a 4 WR spread. This Cardinals offense figures to be more methodical and Kyler’s edge as runner will likely be curved coming off major injury. | Your lotto ticket looks better if his return is late Sept/early Oct. It’s a jackpot situation if he’s his normal elusive self. Regardless of the coaching staff’s intention coming into a game, this team projects to be behind A LOT. Kyler in negative game script, running around like a bad toddler has given us the goods before…this time it would be at a much cheaper cost. |
| QB25 | Derek Carr | Nothing about the Saints offensive approach or Derek Carr’s play last year screams fantasy upside. | He lands in an offense much closer to the one he had his most statically success in with Jon Gruden. In fact, Gruden has been around New Orleans, presumably to help with the install. Despite their approach, this isn’t an offense short on talent. They also have pass rush and speed concerns on defense. A dome deserves shootouts, doesn’t it? |
| QB26 | Ryan Tannehill | We know this will be a slow, Derrick Henry centered offense until he’s no longer a Titan. With that cap placed on his ceiling he can’t afford Treylon Burks early season injury nor a shaky line to live down to preseason expectations. | New OC Tim Kelly has a history of RPO usage and leverage QB mobility and weapon wise you could do much worse that Dhop, Burks and Chig O as your top 3 weapons. If they remain a heavy play-action team (they actually need to ramp it back up), we could see some useful weeks. |
| QB27 | Jimmy Garoppolo | If you’ve reached down this far you’re really scraping the bowl. | He’s got history with McDaniels and while they lack a true lid lifter, the weapons are more than solid, especially if Michael Mayer can push for a decisive share of the TE snaps early on. |
| QB28 | Mac Jones | With Tyquan Thornton struggling in training camp, this looks like a passing game that lacks a fast ball. One that will have to rely on efficiency to get there. Annually one of the very best coached defenses, this year’s roster seems to have more ceiling setting talent..could be a standout unit that leans on the run game to compliment it and just needs the pass offense to caretake. | Their OC doesn’t have a pencil in his ear…that’s as good of a reward as any. To a lesser degree obviously but it’s reminiscent of the Jaguars going from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson. Sheer competence will go a long way. |
| QB29 | Bryce Young | The Panthers slow preseason is a sign of things to come. They have a fair amount of NFL caliber weapons but lack any potential ceiling setters until/if Jonathan Mingo arrives. | Bryce shows he’s the play elevator he seems to be and his improve skills lead to more runs than we’re projecting. |
| QB30 | CJ Stroud | Likely slow, run first O, defensive minded head coach who, shaky at best weaponry…I believe in Stroud as a real life difference maker but none of this screams fantasy upside. | Negative game scripts and rushing production is the likely the only savior here. |
| QB31 | Desmond Ridder | I think Ridder will be given an early opportunity to prove he’s him…but if he’s not this thing could go into a shell quickly. | Ridder’s situation is probably better than a few of the players ahead of him in this tier. Arthur Smith is a talented play action pass game creator and flanked with 3 skill players drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft with upgrades to their complementary players in Mack Hollins, Scott Miller and Jonnu Smith. |
| QB32 | Baker Mayfield | I mean, do I have to say it? | He’s not without weapons and Dave Canales does make for a interesting coordinator hire coming off what he was able to help Geno Smith accomplish last season. |
| QB33 | Josh Dobbs | Besides experience in the offense he’s not set up very well for success | Is his acquisition a sign that Kyler is further away? Making this an extended rehearsal. He does have some mobility. |
| Tier 7-Watchlist | Risk | Reward | |
| QB34 | Clayton Tune | We only see him with a clipboard | Next in line if Dobbs falters, Has some distributor qualities |
| QB35 | Jacoby Brissett | See above. | Howell falters early, the coaching staff feels their seat getting a little hotter and pull the plug. Brissett’s play last year lends some confidence that he could do a competent job. |
| QB36 | Sam Darnold | See above. | Purdy faces tougher defenses and turns into a pumpkin. Say what you will about Shanahan (I certainly have) but his system breeds QB efficiency. |
| QB37 | Kyle Trask | See above. | He’s a Baker meltdown away from playing time with a one of the better WR duos in the NFL. His arm strength could make things interesting, I don’t know if it’ll be good, but it’ll be interesting. |
| QB38 | Jared Stidham | See above. | He signed a deal that was just big enough to get me to raise and eyebrow, after a solid late season showing last year with the Raiders. If Russ is cooked or just can fall in line with Sean Payton’s approach, we could see Stidham get starts with one of the better play callers of this era at the controls. |
| QB39 | Taylor Heinicke | See above. | Ridder will be given every opportunity I’m sure but if he fails to answer the bell… |
| QB40 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | See above. | A standout preseason sealed DTR as the QB2 in Cleveland. Because the money invested it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they go away from Watson, even if his struggles continue…but DTR is one injury away, has wheels and coaching staff alignment. |
| QB41 | Bailey Zappe | Gets a couple practice squad call ups but doesn’t actually make the roster | Rumors that BB doesn’t like Mac Jones comes true. If anybody is willing to pull that trigger it’s him and Zappe is technically still the backup imo. |
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