| Tier 1-Elite WR1 | Risk | Reward |
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | If you think of something let me know | As scary as it is, he still has room to improve in the TD department based on his usage. |
| WR2 | Ja’Marr Chase | Does Joe Burrow start slow or is limited in any way? | Chase won with splash plays in year 1 and scared the daylights out of the league. In year 2 he won with volume, schemed touches, etc. He’s unavoidable. |
| WR3 | Cooper Kupp | Coming off injury and entering his age 30 season. | Look at the weapons around him and the defensive depth chart and tell me what will keep him from getting ALL the targets. Has a goat season on his mantle and was on pace for another last season pre injury. |
| Tier 2-High End WR1 | Risk | Reward |
| WR4 | Tyreek Hill | The Dolphins post bye offense last year combined with the thought that they’ll run the ball a lot more this year and their defense got a true difference making play caller in Vic Fangio leave me a little concerned. | Tyreek left Patrick Mahomes and set career highs in receptions and yards..a true game changing talent that can take my concerns and make them confetti. |
| WR5 | Stefon Diggs | Inching towards 30 years old now does he start to lose percentage points off his athleticism? | His combination of talent, unwavering opportunity and red zone/green zone usage places him here for me in a really tight group. Just feel like he’s overdue for a big TD season but you can stack these guys however you see fit. |
| WR6 | AJ Brown | In sheer numbers the Eagles defense loss more than they gained but got maybe the best defensive player in the draft in Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith looked like a superhero in preseason. I say all that to say the Eagles may clobber people again this season and make their 4th quarters boring…challenging AJB’s target season. | Speaking of super heroes..If the Eagles tougher schedule pushes them into shootouts and closer games in the 4th quarter, I could see AJB putting up a WR1 overall type of season. |
| WR7 | Davante Adams | The vibes didn’t seem to be vibing for Davante after the Derek Carr release. Color me skeptical that Adams will be able to repeat the chunk downfield plays with Jimmy G at the controls. | If Davante says it doesn’t matter whose throwing him the ball I should probably just believe him. |
| WR8 | CeeDee Lamb | Even if you’re optimistic about the Cowboys not going full on ground and pound I don’t think there is any doubt they’ll play slower. I think his bottom line will inherently get nipped at, just the question is how much? | Lamb’s talent, heavy slot usage and continuity with Dak make him a super strong 2nd round pick but if the pass rate doesn’t really decrease there could be some upside there too. |
| WR9 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Compiling without enough chunk plays or TDs to give us 2nd round upside. Could the Lions complete secondary makeover spell less shootouts? | Shoutout to John Daigle for this great stat…St. Brown was tackled inside the 5 yard line 7 times last season. So not only does he have room to score more TDs, he’s probably got less target competition than last year. |
| Tier 3-Rest of WR1 | Risk | Reward |
| WR10 | Garrett Wilson | Offensive Coordinator Aaron Rodgers will likely bring in a methodical offense along with a couple of his home boys at receiver that he’s already built a rapport with that could pop up in high leverage situations. Wilson’s adp also isn’t giving us a discount. These aren’t huge deals but we need every factor we can get to ensure upside at this price. | Wilson was so good last season that his splits with Mike White would make you think he was already playing with Aaron Rodgers. Now he gets the real thing. Their growing chemistry was on display during their last preseason game and makes Wilson the next potential superstar WR. |
| WR11 | Jaylen Waddle | See Tyreek Hill’s | The target tree should remain low on branches and Waddle has shown he can win as an underneath compiler or a deep threat. A true game breaking talent with the ability to score from anywhere on the field..don’t let the presence of Tyreek Hill give you pause. |
| WR12 | Devonta Smith | See AJ Brown’s | Devonta is a stud in his own right who went neck and neck with AJB statistically. And for the same reason’s as stated above Devonta could top last years terrific season. |
| Tier 4-High End WR2 | Risk | Reward |
| WR13 | Calvin Ridley | He’s had a lengthy absence from football and joined a very functional offense with multiple pieces. | Ridley was an alpha in Atlanta and sure as hell still looks like one in preseason. In an offense that was 4th in WR fantasy usage last year per Hayden Winks and may even throw more last year, sign me up to take that…bet (I couldn’t help it). |
| WR14 | DK Metcalf | JSN looks the part as a offensive staple and continues to play well and has consistently had better success rates than DK. It’s fair to question whether he has the target ceiling to payoff where he goes in drafts. | He’ll likely lose a bit of volume but if majority of JSN’s comes from the Seahawks as he’ll be replacing them on the field, it shouldn’t be a big deal. What is a big deal is DK Metcalf’s 40% redzone target share. If he can turn a few more of those into TDs and add a few splash plays we could see a career year from him. |
| WR15 | Chris Olave | It’s a slow offense that didn’t throw much last year and he should face more target competition this year. I can’t knock anyone who has concerns. | I get people’s concerns…I just won’t be partaking in them. Olave was a pretty bulletproof prospect coming in and despite a non threatening offensive environment and QB, he put up a 1,000 yard season. What if he’s just really good, like outlier good? While the 2nd round may be a little too strong for my tastes, I’m taking that shot every time in the 3rd. |
| WR16 | Deebo Samuel | Because the run game and defense is so good and they don’t play fast it’s just tough to imagine Deebo having the target ceiling that some of the other players in this range has. | The good news though is he’s established himself as the #1 target for Brock Purdy while also adding value as a rushing even after the CMC addition. |
| WR17 | Tee Higgins | The gap in opportunity between him and Chase became more pronounced last season and for the catch point maestro he is, Tyler Boyd had more red zone targets and Higgins had a whooping 4 targets inside the 10. I’m honestly tempted to put Higgins lower | The offensive remain one of the premier ones in the league. There’s also optimism that this offensive line takes another step on pass pro which could open up a few more opportunities for chunk plays downfield. |
| Tier 5-Mid to Low End WR2 | Risk | Reward |
| WR18 | Amari Cooper | Cooper’s adp won’t allow for valley’s in Watson’s play to return true upside. There’s also the defense, now led by Jim Schwartz with upgrades at every level. | The Browns have a desire to play faster, more spread out and pass more. A leap from the bottom 3rd in neutral pass rate and pace will give Cooper one of the best target ceilings in the league as he already had 132 under last seasons conditions. |
| WR19 | Christian Watson | The Packers decide to keep a slow approach sans Arod and focus on running the ball. Love proves to inconsistent to support a fantasy breakout. | I’m happy to be a bit more bullish on Watson then most. The Packers have incentive to cut things loose with Jordan Love and their coaching roots favor high end pace. While the Packers have talented young weapons, none of them figure to stand in the way of a high volume season for Watson and at 6’4” with 4.3 wheels and bit more polish than you think, a break thru year is on the table. |
| WR20 | Mike Williams | The Chargers added a 1st round WR, one that gives them the yac juice that they lack. Could Big Mike get locked into a clear out role running mostly low percentage routes? | Quentin Johnston didn’t seem to take off in preseason and seems likely to open the season in a timeshare with Josh Palmer. There is also talk that Williams will get more slot work, which would be great for his floor and we know what his catch point prowess mixed with Herbert’s arm does for his ceiling. Williams has become one of my favorite picks this year. |
| WR21 | Keenan Allen | Father time…also, if Mike Williams truly does get more slot work, Keenan will be in less advantageous situations during those snaps. A 1st round receiver will also be in the mix. | The OC change won’t effect the speed and pass heaviness we’re used to…in fact they may even be a beat faster. Regardless of the concerns that come with Allen, the volume will be there playing the CeeDee Lamb role in Kellen Moore’s offense..and his yards per route run did tick back up last season. |
| WR22 | DJ Moore | Volume | Moore has the type of game breaking talent and versatility to do more with less. The Bears took a offensive tackle in the top 10 and there is optimism for an improved line and Justin Fields show growth in his efficiency as a passer in the 2nd half of last season. |
| WR23 | Drake London | VOLUME | Similarly to my feelings on Chris Olave, London is a guy I’m going to turn the sliders down a little bit on his concerns because I want to be on the caliber of the player. There’s optimism that the Falcons will throw more with Ridder under center, as Denny Carter has pointed out that will happen inherently with less designed runs and scrambles than under Mariota. |
| WR24 | Diontae Johnson | MATT CANADA…also, is George Pickens ready to assert himself as more than a difficult catch artist? | Maybe I’m being a lil too hard on ole Matt. The Steelers first team offense has looked great in preseason in a small sample. If Diontae Johnson just retains his role in the offense he’ll score more TDs even if he wasn’t trying…but if the offense actually improves as well he could put together a season more in line with 2021. |
| WR25 | Tyler Lockett | Another team with a 1st round WR added to the mix. JSN figures to mostly man the slot but it does seem like there was some cross training going on later in the preseason with him taking some snaps outside. Was that for Lockett to bump inside or for JSN to get some outside snaps in 2 TE sets? Lockett has also reached the dreaded 30 year old threshold as well. | Carroll showed he had a new lease on life last season with this Seahawks pass rate (Brian Schottenheimer somewhere rolling his eyes). That has seemingly carried over to the preseason with the offense playing at a faster pace. Hell, even Carroll is playing faster as evidence by his quarterbacking session in training camp. Lockett is an integral part of a pass offense many sharp people are betting on taking things up another notch. |
| Tier 6-High End WR3 | Risk | Reward |
| WR26 | Michael Pittman | He has a inexperienced rookie signal caller and the offense just lost their top player, calling into question the efficiency of the offense. | Pittman has been sort of typecast as this curl route artist but he came into the league as a downfield catch point winner who had the ability to win short and intermediate. Anthony Richardson’s arm opens up more ceiling for Pittman and his standing in the offense, especially with the loss of Jonathan Taylor early on, may make his floor stronger than you think. |
| WR27 | Terry McLaurin | Coming into the season with an injury and an ascending Jahan Dotson. The offensive line is also a question mark. | Sam Howell’s mobility and aggressive mentality gives Terry a chance to fully unlock his downfield ability. Injury concerns could slide him into draft day value range. |
| WR28 | Jerry Jeudy | He was not placed on IR but there were whispers that he could miss the first month of the season or more. How long will it take to get him up to speed and how good of an offense is he actually walking back into? | Wildly similar to McLaurin. |
| WR29 | Deandre Hopkins | The offense will revolve around Henry until Henry is no longer a Titan and the offensive line is universally thought to be the worst in football. We’re also talking about a 31 year old receiver. | Target tree should be pretty condensed and Hopkins will be right at the head of it. Still a talented target earner despite the step back athletically…if anybody can craft their way to another fantasy relevant season, it’s Dhop. |
| WR30 | Hollywood Brown | Bad offense, early QB play will be an adventure. | Hollywood earned targets at a crazy rate to start last season with Deandre Hopkins out. With negative game scripts undoubtedly on the way, we could see a repeat. |
| WR31 | Chris Godwin | Questionable QB play, slower pace, I struggle with what to do with these Bucs WRs because they’re so talented but nothing about what’s going on with them give me warm and fuzzy feelings. | Volume should still be there as an underneath target and enough negative game scripts should bare some fruit. |
| WR32 | Mike Evans | See above | A supremely talented and somehow still underrated player..if whoever’s at QB just gives him opportunities downfield I’m not going to bet against him making some plays. |
| Tier 7-Mid to Low End WR3 | Risk | Reward |
| WR33 | Christian Kirk | Ridley looks poised to take on alpha status in the Jaguars offense. If Kirk is still running behind Zay Jones in the regular season it’s not a huge deal but it probably nips at his target season. | The Jaguars are a super fantasy friendly offense that could continue their upward trending pass rate even higher. |
| WR34 | Brandon Aiyuk | Their defense doesn’t drop off much and we know the run game won’t. | At this point I’ve turned into a bit of a 49ers defense hater…I just want to see what a few shootouts would look like for them. Aiyuk as the established #2 would give us legit blow up games with his deep threat and yac prowess. |
| WR35 | Brandin Cooks | Slow pace and more runs spells bad news for non CeeDee Lamb receivers. | Entering year 9 and Cooks can still run by people. If the only negative is a slow pace it’s plenty of room for Cooks to beat his adp. |
| WR36 | George Pickens | He continues to be typecast by his coordinator and limited to low percentage downfield looks. | His preseason TD on a in breaking route was music to everyone’s ears. If Canada is making this more of a priority, the ceiling for Pickens put him on the shortlist of receivers towards the middle rounds of drafts that can change the trajectory of teams. |
| WR37 | Treylon Burks | The volume won’t be plentiful to began with and Hopkins will take a pretty big slice off the top. | Burks’ progression as a player was pretty impressive. He showed some real alpha traits and I don’t think he’ll just fall into the shadows behind Dhop as a 2. I think he’ll be a true 1B, maybe even a 1A who can win downfield and on schemed touches. He’s another young WR bet i want to make. |
| WR38 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | How long does the wrist injury limit him if at all? Are the multi TE sets still a thing. | JSN is a ready made player who compliments this group perfectly and offers the offense just what they needed as a chain mover. One of the young receivers in this year’s fantasy landscape that if you project some ambition with you can be handsomely rewarded. |
| WR39 | Jordan Addison | He will walk into Adam Thielen’s massive playing time role at some point…the longer it takes for him to do it the less value he brings to fantasy benches. | Thielen ran the 3rd most routes among all WRs last year. Addison’s every week opportunity running opposite of all world receiver Justin Jefferson is as good as we could have asked for. |
| WR40 | Jahan Dotson | McLaurin looks like himself early and with Brandon Thorn’s 31st ranked OL, Howell doesn’t have much time to scan the field for secondary options. | I’ve been hearing some Dotson overtakes McLaurin takes lately and I don’t think it’s farfetched..and that’s not a shot at Terry, that’s a big up to Dotson’s talent. |
| WR41 | Gabriel Davis | Not a true target earning talent..he floats in and out of relevance depending on how many deep targets he gets on that particular week. If they are truly serious about upping James Cook’s passing game involvement and Kincaid is given the opportunity to put his stamp on the offense, Davis could become more of a bit player. | He’s going in a range in drafts that makes the potential pay off worth it. He’s still in one of the best offenses in the NFL and the one major addition to the passing game in Dalton Kincaid doesn’t figure to be a every down player to start the year. |
| WR42 | Rashod Bateman | Injury and target competition. | It’s been a little bit but Lamar Jackson making it a point to call Bateman the Ravens WR1 still sticks out to me. While he’s in a suddenly talented group, OBJ could have his snaps monitored and Zay Flowers could lose snaps in 2 WR sets. I do feel this could end up being a closer to even split between the 3 but i think Bateman has the most playing time upside of the group so i wanted to represent that in the ranks. |
| Tier 8-WR4 | Risk | Reward |
| WR43 | Michael Thomas | Injury is the obvious one but what type of player is he at this point? I don’t want to pay for what he was. | If he’s still a target commanding presence he’s a bargain where he’s going. |
| WR44 | Courtland Sutton | Denver is a boring run first offense that we don’t want pieces of. | He’s gone from potential trade candidate to week 1 priority. Said to look healthier this offseason, talent has never been the issue. If Sean Payton can bring some order and organization to this offense, Sutton offers value where he goes. |
| WR45 | Zay Flowers | How much does he play early in 2 WR sets? With so many threats now can he carve out a big enough share to be trusted weekly? | Size and experience work against him but literally every time we’ve seen him this offseason he’s been giving DB’s fits. His teammates and media members continue to rave about him as well. Maybe we all should just ride the wave? |
| WR46 | Juju Smith-Schuster | The offense will without question take a leap but is it to a point where it matters for fantasy? | It’s not fun but it’s potentially effective. Juju should be a priority underneath target for a team that has a history of churning out slot production. |
| WR47 | Jakobi Meyers | He’s the solidified #2 but it’s not like last year’s group left behind red zone roles of significance. Adams should continue to dominate there. | The volume should be there as the #2 pass game weapon. Much like the player replacing him in New England, it’s not sexy but points are points. |
| WR48 | Odell Beckham Jr. | There are plenty of mouths to feed and I highly doubt he plays heavy snaps early…or maybe at all? | Even if he’s 70-80% of what he was at his athletic peak…a player with his level of savvy and ball skills I’ll continue to bet on. I also wouldn’t rule him turning back the clock a few times this year. |
| WR49 | Elijah Moore | The Browns pass more but not quite enough to support ceiling outcomes for a 3rd weapon behind Cooper and Njoku. | The primary slot in a spread offense with schemed touch opportunities to boot. I can get with that. |
| WR50 | Kadarius Toney | Injury and potential playing time limitations. | Lost in peoples criticisms of Toney’s iffy snap counts last year is the fact that he was still learning a new offense. He may very well have his snaps managed again this year for injury reasons but there is always the chance that the talk after the trade of his ability to be standout player for them was legitimate and they give him every chance to do just that. The adp makes it easier to take that lottery ticket. |
| WR52 | Quentin Johnston | The likely early season platoon between him and Josh Palmer lingers later into the season. | Johnston gives this team a much needed yac threat and they make it point to get him touches in space as well as downfield. The sooner he can become the primary WR3 the sooner the ceiling of their offense changes. |
| WR53 | Marvin Mims | Jeudy returns and looks like himself, Sutton has a resurgence and Mims becomes more of a clear out guy, dependent on big plays | Mims’ game fits Russell Wilson’s game the best of their top 3 receivers. An explosive threat who the Broncos traded up for has the runway now to play heavy snaps from the outset of the season. Another young WR to bet on the upside of. |
| Tier 9-WR5 | Risk | Reward |
| WR54 | Skyy Moore | The Chiefs GM has already said Rashee Rice and Justyn Ross will mix in. Would anybody else be surprised if Justin Watson or Richie James does too? My approach to this Chiefs WR group is to only bet on the potentially outlier talents of Toney or Ross. | Moore is the odds on favorite to be 2nd in snaps for a Mahomes led team. That’s always a favorable place to be. |
| WR55 | Nico Collins | Run first, slowish offense with a legit standout defensive play caller at the controls | The clear WR1 in Houston, Collins has seemed to build an early chemistry with Stroud. |
| WR56 | Zay Jones | He gets pushed to far down the target pecking order to bring upside. | His standing over Christian Kirk in 2 WR sets is not just a preseason deal and his red zone target share hovers around last seasons 23% mark. |
| WR57 | Alec Pierce | If you’re concerned with Richardson supporting Pittman you damn sure should be concerned with him Pierce. | 6’3” with 4.4 wheels with a QB that could throw it to Kentucky. |
| WR58 | Jonathan Mingo | He’s not involved enough early on to justify a roster spot and you have to cut him. | They recognize their lack difference makers early on and lean on Mingo early. My Dynasty teams would be incredibly pleased. |
| WR59 | Van Jefferson | Kupp and Higbee dominate targets and the offense just isn’t good enough to support a 3rd. | If their pace trends back in the fast direction and the shootouts flow like I expect, Van could be the cheapest source of targets out there. |
| WR60 | Adam Thielen | The decline becomes even more pronounced. | Seems to be gaining some sleep buzz late as a volume based play. |
| WR61 | Allen Lazard | When signed the major selling point I kept hearing first is the Jets love his blocking. Not what we want to her in fantasy. | Lazard should have all the playing time he can handle and has an obvious rapport and the support of OC Aaron Rodgers. |
| WR62 | Darnell Mooney | VOLUME | Mooney is a talent player in an offense that will try to take another step in the passing game. DJ Moore should occupy the other teams top corner and the defenses attention. |
| WR63 | Rondale Moore | Chance he’s views as a slot only player in what could be the worst offense in the league. | Should be lots of negative game scripts and check down opportunities. |
| WR64 | Isaiah Hodgins | Lots of options at the position, a couple that they are more financially invested in. | The lone size in the WR room, Hodgins figures to take the lion share of the snaps at the X. If Daniel Jones takes another step, Hodgins could return value on the cheap. |
| WR65 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | With Elijah Moore on board along with his theoretical 2024 replacement in Cedric Tillman…the Browns suddenly have options. | Last year’s semi breakout was just a sign of things to come. In an offense motivated to throw more and play faster, DPJ pushes over 1,000 yards in a contract year. |
| WR66 | Romeo Doubs | The variance of what this Packers offense could be falls more to the run heavy side. Jayden Reed cuts into 2 WR set work. | Variance flips the other way and Doubs is a heavy snap player in a target open offense. |
| WR67 | Tyler Boyd | Just not enough volume or big play ability to offer upside. | An injury to Chase or Higgins would put him in near flex territory weekly. |
| Tier 10-WR6 | Risk | Reward |
| WR68 | DeVante Parker | Potentially a short to intermediate passing game focus which could leave Parker on the outside looking in | Parker can still win at the catch point and doesn’t have an alpha threat to contend with. |
| WR69 | DJ Chark | If the slow pace and pass protection concerns of the preseason extend into the regular season you have to dock any downfield weapon. | Missing a true target hog…Chark has a legit opportunity in a downfield role. |
| WR70 | Michael Gallup | Last year is his new norm. | A year further removed from injury, he returns to his downfield, catch point winning ways. |
| WR71 | Jayden Reed | Currently the 3rd WR in Green Bay, how much 11 personnel will we see? They were 22nd in 3 WR usage last season per Hayden Winks. | Liberated from Aaron Rodgers, LaFleur goes back to his fast paced, base 3 WR routes and Reed is a high snap player. He could easily push for the 2nd most targets in the offense. |
| WR72 | Darius Slayton | He had a bounce back 2nd half of last season and resigned but he’s fallen out of favor before. | There is room for targets outside of Darren Waller. The current starter at the Z, he’s never lacked for talent. |
| WR73 | Rashid Shaheed | With Michael Thomas back and Juwan Johnson a low key breakout candidate..how much will be left? | An efficient and explosive deep threat. Could the Saints ramp up their attack with Derek Carr in the fold? |
| WR74 | Robert Woods | How much does he have left? Will this offense be good enough to even be worth it? | He signed a contract that should make him a priority. He’s been productive in this scheme before. |
| WR75 | Parris Campbell | 1 of 1,000 slot options. | The current starter in the slot is also getting backfield reps. 4 years late but we may finally get that Parris Campbell breakout. |
| WR76 | Curtis Samuel | With McLaurin and an ascending Dotson, is their room for Samuel barring an injury? | Bienemy values him in the screen/scheme touch game and they throw a bit more than we expect. |
| WR77 | Jalin Hyatt | He starts the year as a subpackage player and ends it that way. | In a group that lacks an alpha he eventually overtakes Slayton or [insert slot receiver here]. There’s plenty of room for targets to be earned here behind Darren Waller. |
| WR78 | Marquez Valdez-Scantling | Plays a clear out where he continues to get all the snaps but you have no clue when you can play him. | In year 2 with Mahomes they get in sync with the deep ball. |
| WR79 | Tank Dell | | |
| WR80 | Hunter Renfrow | Josh McDaniels still doesn’t know he plays for the Raiders. | He gets traded to a WR needy team. |
| WR81 | Michael Wilson | Bad QB play, poor offense, and absolute ceiling scenario probably is 3rd on the target pecking order. | The Cardinals made it a point to get Wilson plenty of playing time early in the preseason, presumably with an eye towards the starting X WR role for a team starved for size. It could be tough sledding for the team as a whole but Wilson is talent to monitor. |
| WR82 | Jameson Williams | Roster clog that lost too much important developmental time to be counted on for much of the fantasy season. | His speed and opportunity is still so tantalizing. |
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