| Tier 1-Elite TE1 | Risk | Reward |
| TE1 | Travis Kelce | Father time doesn’t win but he starts to let us know he’s around. We need greatness considering the guys we’d bypass to take Kelce. | He’s Kelce and his QB is Mahomes. Sometimes it’s just that simple. His yard per route run is still quite good. |
| Tier 2-High End TE1 | Risk | Reward |
| TE2 | Mark Andrews | A great stat courtesy of Jordan Vanek..28% of Andrews targets came with 1 WR on the field. Todd Monken led offenses have never thrown out of 1 WR sets more than 5% of the teams total pass attempts. There’s also the sneaky concern that the route freedom he had under Greg Roman won’t exist in with Monken, How much production did that freestyling create? Target competition at a all time high. | With a higher pace, more space and more presumably scoring opportunities do the positives outweigh the negatives. Even if the volume takes a hit could he just set a career high in TDs and make it a moot point? |
| TE3 | TJ Hockenson | New adp new expectations | At absolute worse he’s 3rd on the pecking order for targets in a high volume passing offense but he’s highly likely to be the #2 guy. The addition of blocking TE Josh Oliver could sneakily mean a few more routes run, routes that will come detached from the line of scrimmage. Opportunity like this is just too good to come by. |
| Tier 3-Potential High End TE1 | Risk | Reward |
| TE4 | Darren Waller | Age and Injury | The term league winner gets thrown around a ton and many times it just isn’t correct or requires and injury. When you factor in where he goes in drafts and his opportunity as the head of the Giants passing game..Waller clearly fits the bill. |
| TE5 | George Kittle | Kittle had an 11% percent target share in the games that Purdy started with everyone healthy and as pointed out by many analysts, those chunk play TDs from last season will be nearly impossible to replicate. | Kittle ceiling games just hit different. I’m typically not one to beg but I’ve done so a lot in these tiers, give us some negative game scripts please. |
| TE6 | Kyle Pitts | We’ve seen them all and I’d rather not relive them. | If Arthur Smith can find a way to use him even 80% optimally as is pertains to where he’s deployed and the amount of snaps he gets he can beat his price tag. |
| Tier 4-Low End TE1 | Risk | Reward |
| TE7 | Dallas Goedert | The Eagles continue to clobber people and Goedert has 5 to 6 targets a game to try to get where you need him to. | New defensive coordinator, questions at LB, a tougher schedule…please let these weapons formed against them prosper enough to see some shootouts and 8+ target games for Goedert. |
| TE8 | Evan Engram | Calvin Ridley looks poised to take a big chunk of the Jags pass offense. Ted Nguyen made a great observation on twitter showing how the speed out route could be a staple for Ridley and Lawrence…how does that effect Engram and his 6 yard aDot? | The offensive environment is still a good one and if they throw a bit more maybe he can parlay some TD luck into another strong year. |
| TE9 | Pat Freirmuth | Lost some snaps with the 1st team in preseason. There’s also a chance we get a more well rounded route tree for George Pickens that turns him into more of a target earner. | Freirmuth has been very productive in his young career and the whole offense is due for some better TD luck. If they really are going to play faster and look anything like they have in preseason, we have rethink the ceiling of all these Steelers offensive players. |
| TE10 | David Njoku | Watson not returning to form or cold feet about their pass rate could take the air out of the Njoku break out balloon. | Everything is aligning for Njoku to have a career season. More spread, faster pace figure to be new positives combined with a great red zone stabilizing would allow Njoku to challenge for a top 6 finish. |
| TE11 | Tyler Higbee | The Oline is healthier but doesn’t rebound. Relegating Higbee to more blocking duties. | Their fast pace returns and the defense can’t hold water…turning SoFi stadium into shootout central. Higbee’s volume will be good in comparison to his draft standing almost regardless of how things go but under the scenario I laid out it could be massive. |
| Tier 5-Potential TE1 | Risk | Reward |
| TE12 | Juwan Johnson | More target competition, touch threats than last year. Why have Jimmy Graham around if not to use in the red zone? | On my list of fantasy break outs this season. Johnson is a talented separator who plays a healthy amount of slot snaps and led the Saints in red zone targets last year. Carr will raise the property value of this offense, if that raises in a real way, Johnson could push to be as high as the TE8. |
| TE13 | Dalton Schultz | Preseason usage has left a lot to be desired. If he’s not getting volume what’s the point? | The pecking order is wide open for the taking. |
| TE14 | Dalton Kincaid | Their 11.5 personnel is used enough to meet the routes run numbers we prefer. | Already the 2nd best target earning player on this offense imo. We love the 1st round WRs in this class and he’s basically one of them but he’s arguably in the best offense of them all. If he becomes a regular he’s a top of Tier 4 TE at minimum. |
| TE15 | Sam LaPorta | Lacks ideal size for an inline role. When things get real does that become an issue? | A talented player with 91st percentile speed and a knack for breaking tackles in space. He now gets an OC who specializes in creating that space and he’ll play his home games in a dome. Finishing 3rd on the team in targets feels like a safer bet by the day. |
| TE16 | Luke Musgrave | The Packers have a slow, run first offense and one of the young receivers assert themselves behind Christian Watson. | One of the jewels of this talented 2023 TE draft class, Musgrave has gotten rave reviews and has ran with the starters from the beginning of camp. The team has also been motivated to get him looks in the preseason. He’s a TE flier you can take with a great deal of optimism. |
| TE17 | Gerald Everett | A murderer’s row of veteran target competition and a 1st round rookie WR. | Kellen Moore’s offense has pushed less talented TE’s to real production. |
| TE18 | Chigoziem Okonkwo | Still not playing in heavier personnel and behind an alpha and a potential alpha on the target tree. | Chig is an explosive athlete who can make things after the catch. The appeal of him in a play action/rpo driven offense is evident. Even if he’s 3rd in line for targets, if the targets are as concentrated as they should be, he can still make some noise. |
| Tier 6-High End TE2 | Risk | Reward |
| TE19 | Jake Ferguson | Brandin Cooks and a healthy Michael Gallup cap Ferguson’s target ceiling. | His preseason usage has been excellent and Dak seems motivated to target him. The situation is good enough to see him push into the low end TE1 range, |
| TE20 | Taysom Hill | The Saints added to RB’s and a endzone fade artist. | Taysom remains inevitable and he keeps his all purpose role. You never know when it’s going to hit but when it does…it really does. |
| TE21 | Trey McBride | Ertz isn’t ready to relinquish duties | The 1st TE selected in the 2022 draft, McBride is talented and had a strong profile coming in. If Ertz is moved or just takes a back seat, McBride could break out in a wide open target tree outside of Hollywood. |
| TE22 | Hayden Hurst | An offense that showed some concerns in preseason. If they are slow and not efficient how excited can we be? | Hurst got 13 million guaranteed, the Panthers have an ambigious-ish WR group and probably lack a primary redzone threat. Sneaky sneaky. |
| TE23 | Hunter Henry | Blah production on a better but still not good offense. | Should be a primary underneath and seam weapon in an offense with more direction. Green zone work should filter his way as he already has a rapport with Mac Jones. Another sneaky candidate to be playable at TE. |
| Tier 7-Mid to Low End TE2 | Risk | Reward |
| TE24 | Cole Kmet | The volume just isn’t there and the TDs don’t fall his way. Robert Tonyan coming in to run routes as a detached TE while Kmet blocks is no bueno. A player I’m probably lower on than consensus. | Kmet got paid, has the size and capitalized off the gravity of Fields and the run game to the tune of 7 TDs last season. Could he repeat that feat? |
| TE25 | Greg Dulcich | He’s a part time slot option in s shaky run first option. | These early injuries at least give him a pathway. Could he work himself into more than half the slot work early on and make a case to stay on the field when Jeudy returns? |
| TE26 | Tyler Conklin | A methodical more run centered offense where he shares 3rd banana duties with Randall Cobb/Mecole Hardman. | Cobb’s usage early will be something to monitor but Conklin is a super interesting early watch candidate after the surprising retirement of Corey Davis. I could see Conklin separating himself as detached TE with real talent that could have a steady weekly role w/TD upside. |
| TE27 | Logan Thomas | Has been banged up much of the past couple seasons. Cole Turner had a good preseason. | There was early training camp talk of a stronger role for the TE’s. Is Cole Turner’s preseason production just a glimpse of what Thomas will get with the 1st team? |
| TE28 | Cade Otton | Run first offense and even though the Bucs aren’t projected to be very good they still have a good defensive mind at HC and enough talent on that side to fight. | Otton is far and away the TE1 in this offense. It won’t be sexy but he can compile his way to relevance. |
| TE29 | Irv Smith | There’s not a ton of targets left over for him and he’s not big enough to be an every down inline presence. | He’s got legitimate talent. It’s not hefty amount but Hayden Hurst was able to pull in a respectable 70 targets last season. If Irv can repeat that, be efficient and turn in 6 TDs, he’s in the mix. |
| TE30 | Dawson Knox | The playing time will still be there but the opportunities will certainly take a hit. The red zone role isn’t enough to offset what he loses if/when Kincaid and Cook assume their roles in the pass offense. | Still seems likely to out snap Kincaid in one of the best offenses in the NFL. |
| TE31 | Michael Mayer | Timeshare with Austin Hooper. | The 2nd TE off the board in the most talented TE class I can remember seeing yet he’s getting the least buzz. There’s plenty of room for him to get to 3rd on the pecking order in LV. |
| TE32 | Isaiah Likely | He’s involved but not enough to justify stashing him once injuries and bye weeks start to hit. | TE handcuffs aren’t normally a thing but Likely’s talent is immense. He’d vault into top 8 status if Andrews ever went down and maybe even higher. |
| TE33 | Noah Fant | The Seahawks early that JSN is him, leaving Fant around to pick up the scraps. | He’s facing some strong target competition but he is in an offense we expect to be very good. Can he get in the endzone 6 to 8 times and make himself viable? |
| TE34 | Jelani Woods | Currently on IR. His potentially break out season may never get off the ground. | A physical specimen in an offense that doesn’t have a ton of standout talent. Worth monitoring. |
| TE35 | Zach Ertz | He’s brought along slowly and never reaches higher than part time status. McBride breaks out. | When it was announced that he would avoid IR it was worded as he’d be ready to “start week 1”. I may be looking too deep but maybe they aren’t ready to completely hand the keys to McBride? |
DeepCoverPod Blog 