By Carey Stevenson
QB: Geno Smith vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 5,700
RB: Travis Etienne vs. Houston DraftKings salary: 6,900
RB: Tony Pollard at Arizona DraftKings salary: 8,000
WR: Tyreek Hill vs. Denver DraftKings salary: 9,000
WR: Tyler Lockett vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,400
WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba DraftKings salary: 4,300
TE: Dalton Schultz at Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 3,700
FLEX: Jonathan Mingo at Seattle DraftKings salary: 3,400
DST: Commanders DST vs. Buffalo DraftKings salary: 2,400
Reasoning: There are so many appealing QB plays this week that it took me a little longer than it did in Week’s 1 and 2 to land on a primary stack…and while there is some certainly some discomfort with this one, the upside at the price makes it one I’m willing to chance. Geno basically had the same game that Goff did in their duel last week, yet he’s $800 cheaper and offers leverage away from a popular Kenneth Walker. The Panthers defense looks like a difficult matchup and first glance and I have a ton of respect for DC Ejiro Evero but when you dig a little bit deeper there are questions. Carolina has 8 sacks on the season but have middling to bad pressure numbers outside of that. They’ll be without stud corner Jaycee Horn and middle LB Shaq Thompson and haven’t been truly tested by a pass game this season. I went Lockett > Metcalf due to DK’s current injury status and Lockett heightened opportunity versus zone coverage (78% of Panthers Def snaps). According to @fball_insights, 73% of their defensive snaps are spent with one safety high, giving Lockett at chunk plays. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has fallen victim to Pete Carroll’s tight end orgy’s but has still found some production with a strong 21% target per route run rate per fantasy life. As correlation obsessed as i try to be, i must admit…I looked at this Panthers offense and thought about not running it back. Adam Thielen woulda gave us some cheap volume but it felt like getting a small tax credit you’re not supposed to…So i decided to aim higher and go with the only theoretical juice in this Panthers passing game in Jonathan Mingo. Riq Woolen will miss this game, the Seahawks have been getting hammered by boundary WR’s this year and have missed 23 tackles in their first 2 games (3rd most in the NFL). The latter being a welcome sight for the rocked up 6’2” 220 pound Mingo in the open field. The Panthers have missed 25 tackles this season btw so let’s mid off this thing right into a shootout!
My weekly process starts with me going thru every game first and sitting with my thoughts on them over the course of the week. There is just so much research to do, information to absorb and perspectives to gain that I usually don’t start to build my preliminary player pool until Thursday/Friday..then i pare that down to a more definitive group early Sunday morning. When i sat down on Monday morning, Tony Pollard went into my player pool immediately. His profile is that bulletproof.
Speaking of bulletproof profiles, Tyreek Hill will probably see a ton of maybe the best CB in football in Patrick Surtain Jr and none of us care. His outlier talent combined with the way he’s deployed makes it nearly impossible to keep the ball out of his hands. With the Broncos defense giving up the 5th most adjusted net yards per pass attempt and traveling cross country to bake on the visitors side of Hard Rock stadium…should be business as usual for Tyreek.
Another week, another Travis Etienne lineup. He just feels close to a blowup that i fomo. As big home favorite in a good matchup and dominating the carries for the Jags, this week is as good as any for him to cash in. His route run rate came down in week 2 but it was still higher than it was in 14 of the 19 games he played last season and he pulled in all 3 of his targets. Hopefully that’s the low water mark for him but if it isn’t he can still get there. We don’t know who will get the next goal line carry for the Jags but if it’s Etienne, the wheels will be especially up. With Nico Collins and Tank Dell getting well deserved buzz, Dalton Schultz will rank 4th at best from a popularity standpoint but he’s quietly ran 81% of the Texans routes this season (tied for 7th most among TE’s). The targets are shallow ones and he doesn’t offer the athleticism to rip off a huge gain but in a likely negative game script with 2 teams playing fast, I’ll take my chances here in a correlated play that will fall below the radar.
On defense I’m making the bet that Josh Allen just can’t help himself. The Commanders have a monstrous defensive line and play with 2 high safeties at the highest rate in the league. Behind Brandon Thorn’s 21st ranked offensive line, I expect the Commanders to get pressure…i also expect Allen to have lapses in restraint, and hopefully those turn into sacks/picks/fumbles/td’s.
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