By Carey Stevenson
QB: Russell Wilson at Chicago DraftKings salary: 5,800
RB: Zach Moss vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 6,000
RB: Tony Pollard vs. New England DraftKings salary: 7,800
WR: Marvin Mims Jr. at Chicago DraftKings salary: 3,900
WR: Puka Nacua at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 6,700
WR: Courtland Sutton at Chicago DraftKings salary: 5,300
TE: Dallas Goedert vs. Washington DraftKings salary: 4,400
FLEX: Ja’Marr Chase at Tennessee DraftKings salary: 7,800
DST: Raiders DST at Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary: 2,300
Reasoning: Those who have followed my lineups over the years know i like to get outside the box, so it pains me to have so many players that have gotten hyped up this week in the lineup…but I’ve gotta be true to what my prep is telling me. So as i transition into the primary stack, Russ has been getting buzz this week but there are a couple factors here that could still give us differentiation. No matter how many boxes it checks thru the week, how many people just can’t bring themselves to click Russ on Sunday? also, the people that are brave enough to do so, will they double stack him? Courtland Sutton has assumed the #1 receiver role in Denver and is top 5 in redzone targets thru the 1st 3 games. Marvin Mims is a stay ready so you don’t have to get ready play…his role will inevitably grow and I’m choosing to get out ahead of it in a beautiful matchup. Majority of his snaps should end up against Tyrique Stevenson, who per PFF has allowed 1.85 yards per coverage snap and has a 4.9% explosive pass plays allowed rate.
I also like that this play is a pivot on a pretty popular Javonte Williams. I thought briefly about running it back with DJ Moore and too a much lesser extent, Cole Kmet to get the TE correlation i covet…but it just felt too much like i was making a substandard play.
The combined volume of the Puka Nacua/Zach Moss skinny stack make it an easy click. On one end you have Moss getting prime Eddie George usage and the other Puka has a whopping 34% target share this season. With 2 teams that trend towards the top of the league in plays run, this game could bare plenty of fruit from a fantasy prospective.
For my money, Tony Pollard should be the highest rostered RB on this slate but he won’t be because the splash plays and TDs haven’t been there the last 2 weeks. The Patriots run defense looks like an avoid on paper but when you dig deeper i see a different story. In week 1 they got the Eagles, who leaned heavily on Kenneth Gainwell, the more effective D’Andre Swift only had one carry in that game. In week 2, Raheem Mostert got them for 121 rushing yards and 2 TDs. In week 3 they shut down the Jets team led by Zach Wilson that had just lost their LT. The Pats defense is still very formidable and the Cowboys have OL injury concerns of their own but Pollard has a dream role in a very good offensive infrastructure. At $7,800 he’s at least a smidge too cheap.
Speaking of the paper telling a different story. Dallas Goedert is one of my very favorite players on this slate for that reason. The Commanders look tough on paper because they’ve faced teams that don’t throw to the TE but they play the most 2 high in the league and Zach Ertz had 10 targets on them in week 1. Goedert is running routes at a near elite clip and is coming off back to back 7 target games. Like Woj tweet, i’m usually “laser focused” on correlation at TE but the position being so damn shaky I’m leaning more on play the best plays, especially with Goedert’s salary not being prohibitive.
Ja’Marr Chase has a great matchup going up against the run defiant Titans. Thru schemed touches and enhanced slot usage, Chase will get his volume regardless…but in a game where the drop backs should be even more plentiful than normal and a matchup that’s been among the very best for WRs for 3 seasons and running, Chase is a priority play.
I’m not gonna hold you, 97% of this Raiders DST play is just about me running out of money. Defense is so random though so maybe we get lucky in a division game were the Chargers are missing two of their best players in Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams. Unlike the Vikings last week, the Raiders will play man coverage at one of the higher rates in the league and we could see them use more resources to slow Keenan Allen down. Seeing the Chargers come out flat in a winnable game feels like a coin flip at worst.
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