Month: October 2023

By Carey Stevenson

QB: CJ Stroud at Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,300

RB: Breece Hall at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 5,900

RB: Christian McCaffrey vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 9,200

WR: AJ Brown at Washington DraftKings salary: 8,000

WR: Nico Collins at Carolina DraftKings salary: 5,500

WR: Tank Dell at Carolina DraftKings salary: 4,800

TE: Tommy Tremble vs. Houston DraftKings salary: 2,500

FLEX: Jahan Dotson vs. Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 4,500

DST: Browns DST vs. Seattle DraftKings salary: 3,000

Reasoning: One of the most pleasant surprises of this season has been the offense of the Texans. I was high on Stroud as a player coming in but had questions about his weapons and the offensive approach with a defensive minded head coach at the controls. In just a couple months that outlook has changed drastically due to OC Bobby Slowik taking his star turn and Nico Collins and Tank Dell providing more juice than i could have imagined. The matchup versus a Panthers defense with the 4th fewest QB hits and 3rd most missed tackles isn’t a prohibitive one…especially if stud edge rusher Brian Burns misses this game. Carolina plays zone coverage at one of the very highest rates in the league but haven’t been particular effective at it. Collins and Dell both rank in the top 30 wide receivers in fantasy points per route run against zone per PFF.

The obvious run back here was Adam Thielen but his $6,600 price tag combined with the prospects of using all 3 of my WR slots on one game didn’t sit well with my spirit. I thought about the potential of the Panthers getting more intentional with Jonathan Mingo during the bye at a $3,400 price tag, but again…3 wide receivers from the same game. My hunt for clues on what would change under new OC Thomas Brown led me to the play. In the game before their bye, Tommy Tremble ran just 2 fewer routes than starter Hayden Hurst. A development that has led Hurst to wonder about his standing with the team and sparked trade rumors while Tremble continues to get into the good graces of Brown. Courtesy of Panthers Beat writer Mike Kaye’s notebook article, Brown has talked up Tremble’s growth since he’s been OC, his physicality in the run game and that he can be a mismatch in the passing game. Talked about building up his role. At the flat minimum price versus a zone heavy Texans team that has allowed the 5th most targets to the position this season…I’ll take my chances on a plus athlete seemingly on the verge of a role graduation.

I usually try to wait until later in the week to start building my player pool but AJ Brown was a pretty easy Monday add. He’s still not priced high enough for his role/talent/volume combo and with the Commanders defense very susceptible to chunk plays, AJB is a play you bang the table for. Terry McLaurin run backs will be a wave many will ride so I’m pivoting to Dotson who essentially matched his usage last week. Many had Dotson as a sneaky threat to overtake McLaurin in the pecking order before the season. It hasn’t been a pretty start for Dotson, but it just felt like an easy way to get different in a surprisingly good boundary matchup from a statistical standpoint. Don’t get me wrong, it’s risky, but scared money don’t what?

Speaking of money…I FINALLY have the money to pay up for CMC. I have no further analysis except that he is an inevitable player in fantasy. The TDs soon come.

Speaking of inevitable players…The Seahawks figure to be one of the 3 most popular defenses on the week while a real life action hero will be roaming the opposite sidelines in Myles Garrett. The Browns defense has been tremendous this year and figure to have an advantage in the trenches with the Seahawks still trying to get their offensive line healthy and on track. I love it when i can pivot on defense by just going to the other side of the game.

I would play Breece Hall at this price even if he had zero pass game involvement but lucky for us he ran a season high 60% of the routes on top of his decisive share of the carries. One of the true outlier talents at the position, capable of popping long runs, Breece is the most popular play for good reason.

BONUS: The initial lineup i landed on felt to touty for my liking so i had to make a couple tweaks but it came together really smooth and will be one I’m playing so i thought I’d share. Swap out Jahan Dotson and Browns DST for Josh Downs and Falcons DST.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Jordan Love at Denver DraftKings salary: 5,800

RB: Aaron Jones at Denver DraftKings salary: 6,800

RB: D’Onta Foreman vs. Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 4,800

WR: Amari Cooper at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 6,100

WR: Mike Evans vs. Atlanta DraftKings salary: 7,100

WR: Drake London at Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 5,100

TE: Mark Andrews vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 5,700

FLEX: Christian Watson at Denver DraftKings salary: 5,600

DST: Bears DST vs. Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 2,900

Reasoning: This slate puts me in a bit of a trick bag. I don’t want to pay up at QB and i also don’t feel particularly confident about heavily stacking any of the games featuring non pay up QB’s…that led me to Jordan Love. The Packers have a great matchup, are hella aggressive downfield and have an approach in the red zone that could get us where we need to go as Love ranks 4th in the NFL in red zone pass attempts per game. I have no clue if Love is good or not (he deserves grace but that’s another convo), but he’s very talented and has some appeal as far as his offensive environment and weapons, so I’m leaning in on the boom/bust nature of his play.

Off the strength of his price and our thoughts of the Broncos defense, Love will be semi popular…as will Luke Musgrave, so I didn’t want to go about this in the usual way. That combined with my love for Aaron Jones this week led me to combine the 2 of them with one of my offseason fence swings, Christian Watson. Jones’ limited participation in practice will likely keep his rostership in check, a factor I’m hoping to take advantage of as i will be playing him as he’ll be #freed coming off a multi-week absence. Before his injury, Jones looked like he was poised for a more decisive split of the Packers backfield. His 21% targets per route run make him a cozier fit in Jordan Love stacks than people will think and give us a piece differentiation. Then there’s the matchup versus a Denver defense that has given us hits like Mostert/Achane’s 375 total yard – 5 TD game and Breece Hall’s 194 total yard game. Christian Watson got back to a normal starter’s workload before the bye and his target share and chunk play upside make him the perfect catalyst for a Love blow up game. I don’t feel great about investing in this stack without a run back but I’d feel worse about a 4-40-0 line from one of the non fighting Payton’s.

I love the skinny stack of Drake London and Mike Evans this week. They both have dominate portions of their teams passing games for teams that are dropping back more than we anticipated coming into the season. The Bucs give up the 8th most points per game to WR’s and while the Falcons have been good versus boundary WR’s, I’m willing to bet on Evans’ talent and opportunity combined with the Bucs surprisingly good pass pro versus a subpar Falcons pass rush.

My 2 non correlated mid range plays kinda highlight my lack of confidence in this slate but remain strong options nonetheless. Mark Andrews faces a Lions defense that plays 2 high coverages at one of the highest rates in the league and have allowed the 4th most targets to the position. Amari Cooper gets a Colts matchup we’ve consistently attacked due to their youth and talent level at corner. His target share and downfield opportunity has transcended the Browns QB play.

I close out the lineup with a stack type that I’m a sucker for. I don’t think i was necessarily great about how to use them in the past but with the news of Roschon Johnson missing this week’s game, this D’Onta Foreman/Bears DST stack just made so much sense. The perfect conditions for a great Foreman game is a positive or neutral script where he’s allowed to gain rhythm and grind on a defense for 20+ carries. What better way to ensure that and give the play a lil more umph than playing a contrarian Bears defense? it gives us leverage on those folks playing Josh Jacobs and also…when’s the last time betting against Brian Hoyer steered us wrong?

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Brock Purdy at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 5,600

RB: Chuba Hubbard at Miami DraftKings salary: 4,300

RB: Raheem Mostert vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,400

WR: Brandon Aiyuk at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 6,200

WR: Kendrick Bourne at Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 4,200

WR: Jaylen Waddle vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 7,600

TE: George Kittle at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 5,000

FLEX: Josh Jacobs vs. New England DraftKings salary: 7,000

DST: Falcons DST vs. Washington DraftKings salary: 3,600

Reasoning: The 49ers hung 42 points on one of the most respected defenses in the league last week and this week all we’re doing is haggling about CMC’s price and treating the members of San Francisco’s passing game like Sean Payton treats Marvin Mims Jr. I get it, the Browns defense is legit and look super daunting on paper. In August i talked about how they were one of the only teams that made significant upgrades to every layer of their defense, including play caller. The biggest of those may be along their interior defensive line where the additions of Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris have taken them from the basement last year to maybe the best run defense in the NFL this year. Those guys are legit forces and make that aspect of their defense feel like the most sticky for me (obviously outside of that super hero that wears #95).

Our potential out is in the passing game though, specifically in the red zone. While the Browns defensive metrics reads like a greatest hits list, they rank 25th in opponent red zone scoring percentage (TD only), all of which have come thru the air. Enter Brock Purdy who has the 8th most pass attempts and 5th most TD passes in the red zone. Now i know, super duper small sample, but that’s all we have to go off right now. What if when truly tested, this is a pass funnel defense? One that is about to face one of the best play designers of the last decade.

The fantasy industry has figured out that you favor Brandon Aiyuk versus man heavy defenses and Deebo Samuel versus zone heavy defenses, so with the Browns playing man at the 2nd highest rate in the league, i won’t make things harder than they need to be. My subtle shift in approach at TE has been to mix in a little less correlation and just play the best talent at a non punt but non splurge price. That’ll land me on a lot of Kittle this week which gives me the best of both worlds here. 2 of those Browns red zone TD’s came at the hands of TE Mark Andrews.

With PJ Walker slated to start at QB for the Browns i opted against a Cleveland run back. I actually think he’ll play reasonably but it’s tough to pinpoint a play to have a great deal of confidence in…especially with the Browns having the lowest implied team total of the week.

Everyone loves an underdog but I’ll gladly ride the wave and pick on one this week. The Dolphins #1 DVOA rush offense faces the #32 DVOA rush defense in the Panthers. With Jeff Wilson not slated to play, Raheem Mostert should return to his pre Devon Achane explosion usage…meaning short yardage work and a healthy amount of routes run in maybe the best offensive environment in the NFL. In an attempt to differentiate from the field I’m bringing Jaylen Waddle along for the ride. His green zone opportunity and usage in the screen game last week show an intentional effort to get him more involved, something that should at least stabilize with the subtraction of Achane. The unique Mostert/Waddle combo makes it easier to run it back with a popular Chuba Hubbard but he also fits the build well. I know playing 2 RB’s in the same game feels cringy, but Miles Sanders leaves behind a 14% target share in weeks 1-4 per fantasy life and Chuba has played the most long down and distance snaps in the Panthers backfield in all but one game. I’m expecting a big volume game from Hubbard.

My little Raiders/Patriots mini stack is a straight forward one. Even if the Patriots do somewhat right the ship on offense it’s difficult for me to see a scenario where Josh Jacobs doesn’t have 20 carries and if the Raiders do somehow end up in a negative game script, Jacobs has a receiver-ish 19% target share on the season. I’m pairing him with one of my favorite plays on this slate in Kendrick Bourne. A consistently impactful player when given the opportunity, he’ll have no choice but to receive it this week. The Patriots will be without Juju Smith Schuster and Demario Douglas and are starving for playmaking on offense. Bourne ran 91% percent of routes last week and even with his yo-yo’d playing time this season had his 3rd 20 plus % target share game. For context, every other Patriots skill player has combined for 1 such game. In an offense where Rhamondre Stevenson’s pass game role has noticeably declined and Hunter Henry’s earlier season “magic” has wore off, Bourne has a huge opportunity coming in non frightening matchup versus this Raiders defense.

Paying up for the Falcons defense on in face sounds like a really bad idea historically but if they were a few hundred cheaper i think you can make the argument that they’d be one of the 3 to 5 most popular defenses on this slate. Atlanta is a home favorite with a strong enough run defense to make the Commanders one dimensional. They’re getting good boundary corner play and while they only have 5 sacks on the season, their hurry numbers per drop back and pressure numbers are in the top 10 in the league. With the duo of McLaurin and Dotson underwhelming and having their routes run pinched into and Sam Howell on pace to take 10,217 sacks…I like my chances of getting a season high sack output from the Falcons, with some turnover goodies to go with it.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Anthony Richardson vs. Tennessee DraftKings salary: 7,000

RB: David Montgomery vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,600

RB: Bijan Robinson vs. Houston DraftKings salary: 7,700

WR: Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Tennessee DraftKings salary: 6,400

WR: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 3,500

WR: Garrett Wilson at Denver DraftKings salary: 6,000

TE: Dalton Schultz at Atlanta DraftKings salary: 3,400

FLEX: James Conner vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 5.800

DST: Dolphins DST vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 3,600

Reasoning: After watching Anthony Richardson thru 3 games, it’s clear a true explosion awaits…and that’s saying something considering he had 30 DraftKings points last week. The pace the Colts are playing at combined with the favorable design of stud play caller Shane Steichen’s offense, sets up AR to be empowered as a runner and passer. Michael Pittman continues to be heavily involved with 28% of the Colts targets and gets THE dream matchup versus the pass insistent Titans defense. Running it back with one of my favorite plays this week in Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. With no Treylon Burks last week, Westbrook-Ikhine had a 5-51-1 line on 81% of routes and 23% of the Titans targets. Deandre Hopkins will pique many people’s interest with his DraftKings price dropping to an all time low, but Westbrook-Ikhine has ran more routes than him in each of the last 2 weeks. He acts as nice pivot on Wandale Robinson at his $3,500 salary.

There’s nothing i can say about Bijan Robinson that you haven’t already heard this week. He will be one of the more popular plays this week, regardless of position but i think we’ve found a unique correlation play to combine with him in Dalton Schultz. I know you’re probably confused since Nico Collins, Tank Dell…hell even Robert Woods are literally right here…but hear me out. I know Schultz’s route run rate dropped last week but in a matchup against stud edge duo TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith, and down both their offensive tackles…Schultz understandably spent 21 of his 35 snaps blocking. On his 14 routes run he was targeted on 3 of them (21%) and has an end zone target in each of the last 3 games per Fantasylife.com. The matchup is a good one as the Falcons run 2 high looks at one of the highest rates in the NFL and have allowed the 5th most targets to TE’s this season. The Falcons defensive line ranks just 25th in pass-rush grade per PFF which I think will enable Schultz to get back around that 65-70% of the routes and makes for a nice contrarian play in the jungle that is TE.

This week’s lineup took me a little longer to put together because I normally lean heavily towards WR in the flex builds. I spent a lot of time trying to pivot away from this 3 RB build but at the end i had to stay true to my gut and my prep. David Montgomery gets a Panthers defense giving up the 5th most DraftKings points per game to RBs (4.7 yards per carry) and with Carolina’s offense being as threatening as a Matt Canada game plan, we could see another 30 carry game from Montgomery.

Speaking of non threatening offenses, people are lining up to play Bengals players while James Conner is sitting on the opposite side in a great spot. The Cardinals offense has the 2nd best rush grade on the week via fantasy points data. The Cardinals offense is averaging 2.37 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, behind only the Eagles and Dolphins. The Bengals on the other hand are are giving up 5.1 yards per carry to RBs. I think this game will be far more competitive than people think (Looks like Vegas agrees, line started Bengals 4.5 and has dropped to 3). Offensive Coordinator, Drew Petzing has crafted a strong run game and Josh Dobbs’ mobility gives edge defenders something additional to think about. Look for Conner to get a healthy workload and bring great value at $5,800.

The Jets have started to show some intention with Garrett Wilson’s usage. Per Josh Norris, Wilson had 22 snaps from the slot last week, 8 of them resulted in a target. It’s a refreshing development just a few weeks removed from us saying our goodbyes to our Wilson breakout WR1 campaign. At $6,000, against a burnable Broncos defense and leverage on Breece Hall #freed week…Wilson is set up for a good game.

I try to avoid popular defenses but i feel like the Dolphins DST is a truly great play that I’ve kinda given myself room to play. We’re expecting a likely positive game script for the Dolphins offense and no Andrew Thomas again at LT for the G-Men. The Seahawks defense came into their Monday night game versus the Giants with a disappointment pass rush, ranking 29th in sack rate. They left the game with 11 sacks…drops mic.