By Carey Stevenson
QB: Anthony Richardson vs. Tennessee DraftKings salary: 7,000
RB: David Montgomery vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,600
RB: Bijan Robinson vs. Houston DraftKings salary: 7,700
WR: Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Tennessee DraftKings salary: 6,400
WR: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 3,500
WR: Garrett Wilson at Denver DraftKings salary: 6,000
TE: Dalton Schultz at Atlanta DraftKings salary: 3,400
FLEX: James Conner vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 5.800
DST: Dolphins DST vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 3,600
Reasoning: After watching Anthony Richardson thru 3 games, it’s clear a true explosion awaits…and that’s saying something considering he had 30 DraftKings points last week. The pace the Colts are playing at combined with the favorable design of stud play caller Shane Steichen’s offense, sets up AR to be empowered as a runner and passer. Michael Pittman continues to be heavily involved with 28% of the Colts targets and gets THE dream matchup versus the pass insistent Titans defense. Running it back with one of my favorite plays this week in Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. With no Treylon Burks last week, Westbrook-Ikhine had a 5-51-1 line on 81% of routes and 23% of the Titans targets. Deandre Hopkins will pique many people’s interest with his DraftKings price dropping to an all time low, but Westbrook-Ikhine has ran more routes than him in each of the last 2 weeks. He acts as nice pivot on Wandale Robinson at his $3,500 salary.
There’s nothing i can say about Bijan Robinson that you haven’t already heard this week. He will be one of the more popular plays this week, regardless of position but i think we’ve found a unique correlation play to combine with him in Dalton Schultz. I know you’re probably confused since Nico Collins, Tank Dell…hell even Robert Woods are literally right here…but hear me out. I know Schultz’s route run rate dropped last week but in a matchup against stud edge duo TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith, and down both their offensive tackles…Schultz understandably spent 21 of his 35 snaps blocking. On his 14 routes run he was targeted on 3 of them (21%) and has an end zone target in each of the last 3 games per Fantasylife.com. The matchup is a good one as the Falcons run 2 high looks at one of the highest rates in the NFL and have allowed the 5th most targets to TE’s this season. The Falcons defensive line ranks just 25th in pass-rush grade per PFF which I think will enable Schultz to get back around that 65-70% of the routes and makes for a nice contrarian play in the jungle that is TE.
This week’s lineup took me a little longer to put together because I normally lean heavily towards WR in the flex builds. I spent a lot of time trying to pivot away from this 3 RB build but at the end i had to stay true to my gut and my prep. David Montgomery gets a Panthers defense giving up the 5th most DraftKings points per game to RBs (4.7 yards per carry) and with Carolina’s offense being as threatening as a Matt Canada game plan, we could see another 30 carry game from Montgomery.
Speaking of non threatening offenses, people are lining up to play Bengals players while James Conner is sitting on the opposite side in a great spot. The Cardinals offense has the 2nd best rush grade on the week via fantasy points data. The Cardinals offense is averaging 2.37 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, behind only the Eagles and Dolphins. The Bengals on the other hand are are giving up 5.1 yards per carry to RBs. I think this game will be far more competitive than people think (Looks like Vegas agrees, line started Bengals 4.5 and has dropped to 3). Offensive Coordinator, Drew Petzing has crafted a strong run game and Josh Dobbs’ mobility gives edge defenders something additional to think about. Look for Conner to get a healthy workload and bring great value at $5,800.
The Jets have started to show some intention with Garrett Wilson’s usage. Per Josh Norris, Wilson had 22 snaps from the slot last week, 8 of them resulted in a target. It’s a refreshing development just a few weeks removed from us saying our goodbyes to our Wilson breakout WR1 campaign. At $6,000, against a burnable Broncos defense and leverage on Breece Hall #freed week…Wilson is set up for a good game.
I try to avoid popular defenses but i feel like the Dolphins DST is a truly great play that I’ve kinda given myself room to play. We’re expecting a likely positive game script for the Dolphins offense and no Andrew Thomas again at LT for the G-Men. The Seahawks defense came into their Monday night game versus the Giants with a disappointment pass rush, ranking 29th in sack rate. They left the game with 11 sacks…drops mic.
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