By Carey Stevenson
QB: Brock Purdy at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 5,600
RB: Chuba Hubbard at Miami DraftKings salary: 4,300
RB: Raheem Mostert vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,400
WR: Brandon Aiyuk at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 6,200
WR: Kendrick Bourne at Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 4,200
WR: Jaylen Waddle vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 7,600
TE: George Kittle at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 5,000
FLEX: Josh Jacobs vs. New England DraftKings salary: 7,000
DST: Falcons DST vs. Washington DraftKings salary: 3,600
Reasoning: The 49ers hung 42 points on one of the most respected defenses in the league last week and this week all we’re doing is haggling about CMC’s price and treating the members of San Francisco’s passing game like Sean Payton treats Marvin Mims Jr. I get it, the Browns defense is legit and look super daunting on paper. In August i talked about how they were one of the only teams that made significant upgrades to every layer of their defense, including play caller. The biggest of those may be along their interior defensive line where the additions of Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris have taken them from the basement last year to maybe the best run defense in the NFL this year. Those guys are legit forces and make that aspect of their defense feel like the most sticky for me (obviously outside of that super hero that wears #95).
Our potential out is in the passing game though, specifically in the red zone. While the Browns defensive metrics reads like a greatest hits list, they rank 25th in opponent red zone scoring percentage (TD only), all of which have come thru the air. Enter Brock Purdy who has the 8th most pass attempts and 5th most TD passes in the red zone. Now i know, super duper small sample, but that’s all we have to go off right now. What if when truly tested, this is a pass funnel defense? One that is about to face one of the best play designers of the last decade.
The fantasy industry has figured out that you favor Brandon Aiyuk versus man heavy defenses and Deebo Samuel versus zone heavy defenses, so with the Browns playing man at the 2nd highest rate in the league, i won’t make things harder than they need to be. My subtle shift in approach at TE has been to mix in a little less correlation and just play the best talent at a non punt but non splurge price. That’ll land me on a lot of Kittle this week which gives me the best of both worlds here. 2 of those Browns red zone TD’s came at the hands of TE Mark Andrews.
With PJ Walker slated to start at QB for the Browns i opted against a Cleveland run back. I actually think he’ll play reasonably but it’s tough to pinpoint a play to have a great deal of confidence in…especially with the Browns having the lowest implied team total of the week.
Everyone loves an underdog but I’ll gladly ride the wave and pick on one this week. The Dolphins #1 DVOA rush offense faces the #32 DVOA rush defense in the Panthers. With Jeff Wilson not slated to play, Raheem Mostert should return to his pre Devon Achane explosion usage…meaning short yardage work and a healthy amount of routes run in maybe the best offensive environment in the NFL. In an attempt to differentiate from the field I’m bringing Jaylen Waddle along for the ride. His green zone opportunity and usage in the screen game last week show an intentional effort to get him more involved, something that should at least stabilize with the subtraction of Achane. The unique Mostert/Waddle combo makes it easier to run it back with a popular Chuba Hubbard but he also fits the build well. I know playing 2 RB’s in the same game feels cringy, but Miles Sanders leaves behind a 14% target share in weeks 1-4 per fantasy life and Chuba has played the most long down and distance snaps in the Panthers backfield in all but one game. I’m expecting a big volume game from Hubbard.
My little Raiders/Patriots mini stack is a straight forward one. Even if the Patriots do somewhat right the ship on offense it’s difficult for me to see a scenario where Josh Jacobs doesn’t have 20 carries and if the Raiders do somehow end up in a negative game script, Jacobs has a receiver-ish 19% target share on the season. I’m pairing him with one of my favorite plays on this slate in Kendrick Bourne. A consistently impactful player when given the opportunity, he’ll have no choice but to receive it this week. The Patriots will be without Juju Smith Schuster and Demario Douglas and are starving for playmaking on offense. Bourne ran 91% percent of routes last week and even with his yo-yo’d playing time this season had his 3rd 20 plus % target share game. For context, every other Patriots skill player has combined for 1 such game. In an offense where Rhamondre Stevenson’s pass game role has noticeably declined and Hunter Henry’s earlier season “magic” has wore off, Bourne has a huge opportunity coming in non frightening matchup versus this Raiders defense.
Paying up for the Falcons defense on in face sounds like a really bad idea historically but if they were a few hundred cheaper i think you can make the argument that they’d be one of the 3 to 5 most popular defenses on this slate. Atlanta is a home favorite with a strong enough run defense to make the Commanders one dimensional. They’re getting good boundary corner play and while they only have 5 sacks on the season, their hurry numbers per drop back and pressure numbers are in the top 10 in the league. With the duo of McLaurin and Dotson underwhelming and having their routes run pinched into and Sam Howell on pace to take 10,217 sacks…I like my chances of getting a season high sack output from the Falcons, with some turnover goodies to go with it.
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