By Carey Stevenson
QB: Jordan Love at Denver DraftKings salary: 5,800
RB: Aaron Jones at Denver DraftKings salary: 6,800
RB: D’Onta Foreman vs. Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 4,800
WR: Amari Cooper at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 6,100
WR: Mike Evans vs. Atlanta DraftKings salary: 7,100
WR: Drake London at Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 5,100
TE: Mark Andrews vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 5,700
FLEX: Christian Watson at Denver DraftKings salary: 5,600
DST: Bears DST vs. Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 2,900
Reasoning: This slate puts me in a bit of a trick bag. I don’t want to pay up at QB and i also don’t feel particularly confident about heavily stacking any of the games featuring non pay up QB’s…that led me to Jordan Love. The Packers have a great matchup, are hella aggressive downfield and have an approach in the red zone that could get us where we need to go as Love ranks 4th in the NFL in red zone pass attempts per game. I have no clue if Love is good or not (he deserves grace but that’s another convo), but he’s very talented and has some appeal as far as his offensive environment and weapons, so I’m leaning in on the boom/bust nature of his play.
Off the strength of his price and our thoughts of the Broncos defense, Love will be semi popular…as will Luke Musgrave, so I didn’t want to go about this in the usual way. That combined with my love for Aaron Jones this week led me to combine the 2 of them with one of my offseason fence swings, Christian Watson. Jones’ limited participation in practice will likely keep his rostership in check, a factor I’m hoping to take advantage of as i will be playing him as he’ll be #freed coming off a multi-week absence. Before his injury, Jones looked like he was poised for a more decisive split of the Packers backfield. His 21% targets per route run make him a cozier fit in Jordan Love stacks than people will think and give us a piece differentiation. Then there’s the matchup versus a Denver defense that has given us hits like Mostert/Achane’s 375 total yard – 5 TD game and Breece Hall’s 194 total yard game. Christian Watson got back to a normal starter’s workload before the bye and his target share and chunk play upside make him the perfect catalyst for a Love blow up game. I don’t feel great about investing in this stack without a run back but I’d feel worse about a 4-40-0 line from one of the non fighting Payton’s.
I love the skinny stack of Drake London and Mike Evans this week. They both have dominate portions of their teams passing games for teams that are dropping back more than we anticipated coming into the season. The Bucs give up the 8th most points per game to WR’s and while the Falcons have been good versus boundary WR’s, I’m willing to bet on Evans’ talent and opportunity combined with the Bucs surprisingly good pass pro versus a subpar Falcons pass rush.
My 2 non correlated mid range plays kinda highlight my lack of confidence in this slate but remain strong options nonetheless. Mark Andrews faces a Lions defense that plays 2 high coverages at one of the highest rates in the league and have allowed the 4th most targets to the position. Amari Cooper gets a Colts matchup we’ve consistently attacked due to their youth and talent level at corner. His target share and downfield opportunity has transcended the Browns QB play.
I close out the lineup with a stack type that I’m a sucker for. I don’t think i was necessarily great about how to use them in the past but with the news of Roschon Johnson missing this week’s game, this D’Onta Foreman/Bears DST stack just made so much sense. The perfect conditions for a great Foreman game is a positive or neutral script where he’s allowed to gain rhythm and grind on a defense for 20+ carries. What better way to ensure that and give the play a lil more umph than playing a contrarian Bears defense? it gives us leverage on those folks playing Josh Jacobs and also…when’s the last time betting against Brian Hoyer steered us wrong?
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