By Carey Stevenson
QB: CJ Stroud at Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,300
RB: Breece Hall at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 5,900
RB: Christian McCaffrey vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 9,200
WR: AJ Brown at Washington DraftKings salary: 8,000
WR: Nico Collins at Carolina DraftKings salary: 5,500
WR: Tank Dell at Carolina DraftKings salary: 4,800
TE: Tommy Tremble vs. Houston DraftKings salary: 2,500
FLEX: Jahan Dotson vs. Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 4,500
DST: Browns DST vs. Seattle DraftKings salary: 3,000
Reasoning: One of the most pleasant surprises of this season has been the offense of the Texans. I was high on Stroud as a player coming in but had questions about his weapons and the offensive approach with a defensive minded head coach at the controls. In just a couple months that outlook has changed drastically due to OC Bobby Slowik taking his star turn and Nico Collins and Tank Dell providing more juice than i could have imagined. The matchup versus a Panthers defense with the 4th fewest QB hits and 3rd most missed tackles isn’t a prohibitive one…especially if stud edge rusher Brian Burns misses this game. Carolina plays zone coverage at one of the very highest rates in the league but haven’t been particular effective at it. Collins and Dell both rank in the top 30 wide receivers in fantasy points per route run against zone per PFF.
The obvious run back here was Adam Thielen but his $6,600 price tag combined with the prospects of using all 3 of my WR slots on one game didn’t sit well with my spirit. I thought about the potential of the Panthers getting more intentional with Jonathan Mingo during the bye at a $3,400 price tag, but again…3 wide receivers from the same game. My hunt for clues on what would change under new OC Thomas Brown led me to the play. In the game before their bye, Tommy Tremble ran just 2 fewer routes than starter Hayden Hurst. A development that has led Hurst to wonder about his standing with the team and sparked trade rumors while Tremble continues to get into the good graces of Brown. Courtesy of Panthers Beat writer Mike Kaye’s notebook article, Brown has talked up Tremble’s growth since he’s been OC, his physicality in the run game and that he can be a mismatch in the passing game. Talked about building up his role. At the flat minimum price versus a zone heavy Texans team that has allowed the 5th most targets to the position this season…I’ll take my chances on a plus athlete seemingly on the verge of a role graduation.
I usually try to wait until later in the week to start building my player pool but AJ Brown was a pretty easy Monday add. He’s still not priced high enough for his role/talent/volume combo and with the Commanders defense very susceptible to chunk plays, AJB is a play you bang the table for. Terry McLaurin run backs will be a wave many will ride so I’m pivoting to Dotson who essentially matched his usage last week. Many had Dotson as a sneaky threat to overtake McLaurin in the pecking order before the season. It hasn’t been a pretty start for Dotson, but it just felt like an easy way to get different in a surprisingly good boundary matchup from a statistical standpoint. Don’t get me wrong, it’s risky, but scared money don’t what?
Speaking of money…I FINALLY have the money to pay up for CMC. I have no further analysis except that he is an inevitable player in fantasy. The TDs soon come.
Speaking of inevitable players…The Seahawks figure to be one of the 3 most popular defenses on the week while a real life action hero will be roaming the opposite sidelines in Myles Garrett. The Browns defense has been tremendous this year and figure to have an advantage in the trenches with the Seahawks still trying to get their offensive line healthy and on track. I love it when i can pivot on defense by just going to the other side of the game.
I would play Breece Hall at this price even if he had zero pass game involvement but lucky for us he ran a season high 60% of the routes on top of his decisive share of the carries. One of the true outlier talents at the position, capable of popping long runs, Breece is the most popular play for good reason.
BONUS: The initial lineup i landed on felt to touty for my liking so i had to make a couple tweaks but it came together really smooth and will be one I’m playing so i thought I’d share. Swap out Jahan Dotson and Browns DST for Josh Downs and Falcons DST.
DeepCoverPod Blog 