Month: November 2023

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Desmond Ridder at Falcons DraftKings salary: 4,800

RB: Isiah Pacheco DraftKings salary: 6,200

RB: Kyren Williams at Arizona DraftKings salary: 6,600

WR: Mike Evans at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 7,400

WR: Drake London vs. New Orleans DraftKings salary: 5,000

WR: Rashid Shaheed at Atlanta DraftKings salary: 4,300

TE: Taysom Hill at Atlanta DraftKings salary: 5,000

FLEX: Michael Pittman vs. Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 6,800

DST: Steelers DST vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 3,700

Reasoning: I felt like i had to go through this slate with gloves because of the amount of games i just didn’t want to touch…many will congregate around Jags/Texans and Bills/Eagles, and rightfully so, but you could get analysis of those games anywhere…You know how i get down though, so ride with me on this scenic route.

Falcons/Saints features a bunch of fantasy relevant plays and interesting opportunities in a dome game where both defenses are in the bottom 10 in sack percentage. Derek Carr doesn’t offer enough upside run this from the Saints side while Desmond Ridder’s price, rushing upside and likely lower rostership make him a very interesting boom/bust play in large field. The Saints are a one of the man heavy defense and have given up the 3rd most rushing yards to QB this year. Ridder averaged 3 designed rush attempts during his last 3 starts per fantasylife.com and has 4 rushing scores on the season. In that same 3 game sample, Drake London had target shares of 25%, 27% and 27% and gets a Marshon Lattimore free matchup. I thought briefly about double stacking but i just wasn’t compelled enough with Kyle Pitts’ opportunity to go away from one of my run backs…

Taysom Hill took a step back last week usage wise but it wasn’t a big one and it probably had more to do with their 24-3 deficit then anything else. While he only had one carry he was still involved in the passing game with 4 targets. With Michael Thomas now on IR i expect Taysom to jump right back into usage that will have analysts propping him back up as a top 8 TE option the rest of the way.

Because we’re pivoting away from Bijan Robinson in this lineup i felt like i needed a bit more of reinforcements on the New Orleans side to pump up Ridder’s amount of drop backs. Rashid Rasheed’s playing time started to trend down in recent weeks but with Michael Thomas leaving the Saints last game due to injury, Shaheed jumped back up to 81% of routes. At price he offers upside in a zone heavy matchup.

The Chiefs have underwhelmed a bit from a point scoring aspect but they are in a nice bounce back spot versus a Raiders defense that will likely be without their one difference maker on that side of the ball in Maxx Crosby. Isiah Pacheco has dominated the RB carries for majority of the season so i love tapping to that on offenses we expect to score but with 3rd down back Jerick McKinnon slated to miss this game, his upside hits a little different. McKinnon essentially plays every long and down and distance snap, so while it would be too much to ask for Pacheco to absorb all of that too…he should absorb some of it, raising his ppr appeal.

Kyren Williams is a bit of a leap of faith but we’re seeing more and more that RBs are walking right back into lead roles after extended absences. The combination of Royce Freeman/Darrell Henderson did nothing to convince the Rams coaching they have the room to wait so even if he doesn’t have the full on bellcow role he had before he went down, I expect him to get plenty of touch opportunities versus a Cardinals defense that gives up the 3rd most DK points per game to RBs.

My first instinct when i paid down at QB was to go all the way up WR. I’ll probably do that in some different variations but for this build i decided to skinny stack my other favorite sleeper game with 2 of the best WR plays on the slate. Evans and Pittman have the matchups, target shares, big play potential and injuries to opposing secondary starters.

On defense the Steelers will probably be 5th or 6th on the totem pole as far as popularity but they are going up against a backup QB who averaged 4.9 yards per attempt in his relief duty last week and will be without Tee Higgins. Seems like a strong pivot to make to me.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Justin Fields at Detroit DraftKings salary: 6,900

RB: Devon Achane vs. Miami DraftKings salary: 6,600

RB: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 7,000

WR: Tank Dell vs. Arizona DraftKings salary: 5,900

WR: DJ Moore at Detroit DraftKings salary: 5,600

WR: George Pickens at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 4,900

TE: Cole Kmet at Detroit DraftKings salary: 4,100

FLEX: Sam LaPorta vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 5,800

DST: Dolphins DST vs. Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 3,200

Reasoning: My exposure to this Bears-Lions game is going to look like that video of the teacher who kept coming to school with different colors of the same shirt. I’ll be playing various 4 and 5 man combinations from but I’m more inclined to do so with Justin Fields at QB. After a slow start for the Bears offense, Fields finished as the QB3 and QB1 respectively in his last 2 full starts before his right thumb injury caused him to miss the last 4 games. Considering the Lions potent offense and the Bears willingness to drop back more in 2023, the attempts should be there for Fields’. His pass attempts in each of his last 2 full starts exceeded any game in 2022. Couple that with the fact that he went over 130 rushing yards in both his starts versus the Lions last year and I’d say his ceiling is as high as nearly anyone’s versus the 21st ranked scoring offense.

The stacking partners are straight forward but doubling up on them should afford us some uniqueness. DJ Moore was equally on a tear with 5 TDs in the 3 games prior to Fields going down. The volume has somewhat been there since but the air yards and upside haven’t hit the same with Tyson Bagent under center. [Side note…whose idea was it to nickname him T-Bag? I’m sure he didn’t ask for that because what self respecting person would?]. Cole Kmet is one of my favorite players on this slate and for my money is the best TE play. Kmet has had at least 23% of the targets in each of the last 3 games (same in Fields week 4 and 5 starts), has a plus matchup versus these Lions LB’s, will likely play from behind versus a Detroit defense that’s top versus the run. I know his blow up’s seem to come randomly but considering that he had 3 TDs versus this team last year, it may be a little more planned than we thought.

Funny enough, my 2nd favorite TE play is in the same game so in an attempt to diversify my palate I’m going to a 2 TE build with Sam LaPorta. These kind of builds aren’t my usual because i feel like many of the plays are taking upside off the table but for as good as Kmet’s matchup is, LaPorta’s could be better. The Bears are equally as targeted by TE’s with similar production and have even stouter run defense but Chicago plays more zone, specifically more cover 2 with Matt Eberflus’ Colts roots and that’s a hot spot for the in-breaking play action shots that Ben Johnson is known for. With the emergence of Trey McBride and Dalton Schultz at cheaper price points, it feels like LaPorta is going to fall under the radar coming off a pedestrian game with a 4-40-0 line…but that would be a mistake. Closing this game stack out with Jahmyr Gibbs who also finds himself in a good spot. As previously stated, the Bears have a lights out run defense…but the Lions have one of the most effective and versatile run games in the NFL and have shown a commitment to it over time…i expect them to continue to have at least a moderate level of success there. Chicago may be without their prized free agent middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds as well, which would be an added boost. The biggest bump however will come in the passing game as Gibbs seems to now be locked into the pass down role versus a Bears defense that has allowed the 3rd most targets and receptions to RB’s, over 100 more receiving yards to RB’s than any other team and the most receiving TDs to RB’s. Gibbs has at least 16% of the Lions targets in each of the last 4 games and with the space creation skills of Ben Johnson i expect fireworks.

Investing so heavily in Bears-Lions i thought about going away from Texans-Cardinals all together but Tank Dell’s price and opportunity proved too much to turn down. His measurables give you the impression he’d get a much of his work in short areas and schemed touches but they give him legit chances to win downfield, he also has 3 end zone targets in the last 2 games. In a matchup versus a leaky, zone heavy Cardinals team…i’ll be dapping up the field in solidarity and play Dell with everybody else.

I saved my off the board play for my last WR choice in George Pickens. I don’t see a ton of middle ground…this either goes terribly or amazing, but that’s what large field tournaments are about. The Browns play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL and Pickens has a 30% target share versus man coverage. More specifically, the Browns lead the NFL in 1-high coverage and Pickens is 10th in yards per route run versus 1-high per the good folks over at fantasypoints.com. The Browns will also be without their centerfield, FS Juan Thornhill…making multiple of those signature deep boundary shots feel a little more attainable this week.

I was slow to react to Achane-mania before his injury so i won’t make that same mistake in what is a great spot. The Raiders give up the 8th most Draftkings points per game to RB’s and outside of Maxx Crosby are low on front seven difference makers. Traveling cross country to bake on the non shaded visitor sideline at Hard Rock stadium sounds like a recipe for potential disaster…or in our case, a 100 + yard day with multiple TD’s. I didn’t tack on the Dolphins defense from the same mindset that i have with previously but on a slate that doesn’t have many exciting low cost options i feel like they are a good compromise. They are a home favorite facing a late round rookie QB who hasn’t really been pushed since he was inserted as the starter. As sound as Aidan O’Connell has looked as a player I’m willing to bet that he makes a couple mistakes with a larger sample size.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Dak Prescott vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 6,700

RB: Najee Harris vs. Green Bay DraftKings salary: 4,900

RB: Ken Walker vs. Washington DraftKings salary: 6,800

WR: Marquise Brown vs. Atlanta DraftKings salary: 5,200

WR: CeeDee Lamb vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 8,500

WR: Drake London at Arizona DraftKings salary: 5,500

TE: Jake Ferguson vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 4,600

FLEX: Curtis Samuel at Seattle DraftKings salary: 3,900

DST: Steelers DST vs. Green Bay DraftKings salary: 3,800

Reasoning: 2 weeks ago I let noise talk me out of my Dak stack so I’m back for redemption. The Cowboys have season high drop back rates in the last 2 weeks and get a Giants defense giving up the 4th most yards per completion. Prescott’s 17 carries in the last 3 games also serves as a ceiling booster. Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup’s underwhelming involvement has made Dak’s stack partners even more straightforward. The Giants blitz heavy, man heavy defense should make CeeDee Lamb smirk like that Kevin James meme…according to PFF, he ranks 2nd in yards per route run and 4th in fantasy points per route versus man coverage. Jake Ferguson ascension continues as his routes run rate has stabilized to high end levels. If Dak gets there, it’s hard to imagine that Ferguson won’t get his cut of the winnings, considering his enviable red zone/green zone role.

The obvious fear here is the Giants offense can’t push back and the Cowboys show restraint as the game nears a close. I feel like I’m playing with fire a bit without a Giants run back but even with a squint and some PPR trickery it’s tough. Believe me a tried…*whispers* The Cowboys give up the 8th most yards per completion and play 1 high coverage at the 2nd highest rate in the league. Jalin Hyatt stealing a long TD is non zero proposition, I just couldn’t bring myself to hit save for you all. I may try it myself in one large field gpp.

I can’t believe I’m playing Najee Harris but on one of the least inspiring RB slates that i can remember he’s one of the few RB’s i see a definitive path for value. The Packers give up the 8th most DraftKings points per game to RBs and travel to Pittsburgh with one the league most punchless offenses. The Steelers won’t be confused with the greatest show on turf but a 20 touch expectation with goal line work in a good matchup feels like good process to me…and in true commitment to the brand, I sprinkled the Steelers defense on like parsley to make it hit a lil more.

Another week, another single stack with Drake London. His price just never matches his ceiling and his floor has been stronger than people believe. This week I’m pairing him with Marquise Brown, a player whose volume has been strong all season but now gets the boost of improved QB play. This Falcons-Cardinals game is giving me sneaky shootout vibes, i just haven’t quite figured out if/how i want to approach it yet.

If I’m not riding the wave with the popular QB(s) play of the week, best believe I’m going to try my best to hate on him with a play…Ken Walker is that vehicle this week. Geno Smith has a great price and set up this week, I’ll be playing him this week in DFS and I’ve held of on cutting him in redraft for this matchup specifically…but he’s not the only benefit of the environment. A couple pass plays stop short of the goal line, a few more carries to salt away the game…even with Charbonnet’s increased involvement, Walker could still push for 20 carries, and with his propensity to break off long runs, he could put together the type of game you need. I found another under the radar attachment to this game to pair with him in Curtis Samuel. The Seahawks zone heavy defense is most vulnerable in the middle of the field which is where Samuel frequents out of the slot. The Commanders have begun to spread the ball around in the passing game but since week 4, the primary slot receiver has had a target per route run rate of at least 20% in every game…something that has low key come in handy as Washington’s pass rate over expectation continues to climb. Samuel is always a threat for schemed touches in the run game as well. Now he is questionable to play this week with a toe injury, if he doesn’t play you can swap to Jamison Crowder at 3,400 and spend up somewhere else in the lineup.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Aidan O’Connell vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 4,500

RB: Saquon Barkley at Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 7,900

RB: Jonathan Taylor at Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,400

WR: Davante Adams vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 8,100

WR: Nico Collins vs. Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 5,800

WR: Mike Evans at Houston DraftKings salary: 7,300

TE: Michael Mayer vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 2,800

FLEX: Jake Ferguson at Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 4,000

DST: Colts DST at Carolina DraftKings salary: 3,100

Reasoning: It was looking bleak but man, you never know where your blessings are coming from…shout out to Mark Davis for giving Josh McDaniels his walking papers, and in turn giving me someone to play this week. O’Connell was a pleasant surprise in preseason, flashing downfield zip and the ability to throw with timing and anticipation. The matchup is a pseudo tough one facing off against a Wink Martindale defense heavy on blitzes but light on results (27th in sack rate). The first pairing is simple as Davante Adams will most certainly let everyone in the building know what the new order should be. With volume being his only issue, Adams ranks on the short list of very best plays on a slate lacking great ones. Completing the stack with the ascending Mayer who ran a season high 79% of the routes last week and checks price and correlation boxes.

Running it back with Saquon was the natural progression but considering the standing of this slate he would have been a guy i landed on anyway. He’s not someone I’d normally be going out of my way to play but the workload is thicc and while I’m certain that Antonio Pierce will lead the Raiders to play inspired football, unless he can get in there and play middle linebacker…the matchup is a strong one.

The combo of Mike Evans & Nico Collins is my favorite skinny stack of the week. Both have good matchups with size advantages, have made splash plays downfield but win in short areas more than you’d think and have steady and healthy target shares.

Jonathan Taylor played a season 61% of the snaps last week and popped one of his trademark long runs. In a winnable game and a big time OL vs. DL advantage…I can see the Colts really leaning on the Panthers with the run game and forcing the Panthers to lean on a passing game they are still working out the kinks of…making the Colts DST a great pairing, adding a lil razzle dazzle to our JT play.

I normally steer clear of TE in the flex but weird weeks require you to get a lil messy. The lack of cheap WRs i feel great about led me to sneak in the backdoor on the best game of the slate. Ferguson is top 5 in red zone and green zone targets on the season…an opportunity that matches up well with the Eagles vulnerability at TE (2nd most TDs allowed). With a more decisive share of the routes over the last 2 weeks (84% and 85%) finally secured, Ferguson will be a staple of my pool this week.