By Carey Stevenson
QB: Justin Fields at Detroit DraftKings salary: 6,900
RB: Devon Achane vs. Miami DraftKings salary: 6,600
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 7,000
WR: Tank Dell vs. Arizona DraftKings salary: 5,900
WR: DJ Moore at Detroit DraftKings salary: 5,600
WR: George Pickens at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 4,900
TE: Cole Kmet at Detroit DraftKings salary: 4,100
FLEX: Sam LaPorta vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 5,800
DST: Dolphins DST vs. Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 3,200
Reasoning: My exposure to this Bears-Lions game is going to look like that video of the teacher who kept coming to school with different colors of the same shirt. I’ll be playing various 4 and 5 man combinations from but I’m more inclined to do so with Justin Fields at QB. After a slow start for the Bears offense, Fields finished as the QB3 and QB1 respectively in his last 2 full starts before his right thumb injury caused him to miss the last 4 games. Considering the Lions potent offense and the Bears willingness to drop back more in 2023, the attempts should be there for Fields’. His pass attempts in each of his last 2 full starts exceeded any game in 2022. Couple that with the fact that he went over 130 rushing yards in both his starts versus the Lions last year and I’d say his ceiling is as high as nearly anyone’s versus the 21st ranked scoring offense.
The stacking partners are straight forward but doubling up on them should afford us some uniqueness. DJ Moore was equally on a tear with 5 TDs in the 3 games prior to Fields going down. The volume has somewhat been there since but the air yards and upside haven’t hit the same with Tyson Bagent under center. [Side note…whose idea was it to nickname him T-Bag? I’m sure he didn’t ask for that because what self respecting person would?]. Cole Kmet is one of my favorite players on this slate and for my money is the best TE play. Kmet has had at least 23% of the targets in each of the last 3 games (same in Fields week 4 and 5 starts), has a plus matchup versus these Lions LB’s, will likely play from behind versus a Detroit defense that’s top versus the run. I know his blow up’s seem to come randomly but considering that he had 3 TDs versus this team last year, it may be a little more planned than we thought.
Funny enough, my 2nd favorite TE play is in the same game so in an attempt to diversify my palate I’m going to a 2 TE build with Sam LaPorta. These kind of builds aren’t my usual because i feel like many of the plays are taking upside off the table but for as good as Kmet’s matchup is, LaPorta’s could be better. The Bears are equally as targeted by TE’s with similar production and have even stouter run defense but Chicago plays more zone, specifically more cover 2 with Matt Eberflus’ Colts roots and that’s a hot spot for the in-breaking play action shots that Ben Johnson is known for. With the emergence of Trey McBride and Dalton Schultz at cheaper price points, it feels like LaPorta is going to fall under the radar coming off a pedestrian game with a 4-40-0 line…but that would be a mistake. Closing this game stack out with Jahmyr Gibbs who also finds himself in a good spot. As previously stated, the Bears have a lights out run defense…but the Lions have one of the most effective and versatile run games in the NFL and have shown a commitment to it over time…i expect them to continue to have at least a moderate level of success there. Chicago may be without their prized free agent middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds as well, which would be an added boost. The biggest bump however will come in the passing game as Gibbs seems to now be locked into the pass down role versus a Bears defense that has allowed the 3rd most targets and receptions to RB’s, over 100 more receiving yards to RB’s than any other team and the most receiving TDs to RB’s. Gibbs has at least 16% of the Lions targets in each of the last 4 games and with the space creation skills of Ben Johnson i expect fireworks.
Investing so heavily in Bears-Lions i thought about going away from Texans-Cardinals all together but Tank Dell’s price and opportunity proved too much to turn down. His measurables give you the impression he’d get a much of his work in short areas and schemed touches but they give him legit chances to win downfield, he also has 3 end zone targets in the last 2 games. In a matchup versus a leaky, zone heavy Cardinals team…i’ll be dapping up the field in solidarity and play Dell with everybody else.
I saved my off the board play for my last WR choice in George Pickens. I don’t see a ton of middle ground…this either goes terribly or amazing, but that’s what large field tournaments are about. The Browns play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL and Pickens has a 30% target share versus man coverage. More specifically, the Browns lead the NFL in 1-high coverage and Pickens is 10th in yards per route run versus 1-high per the good folks over at fantasypoints.com. The Browns will also be without their centerfield, FS Juan Thornhill…making multiple of those signature deep boundary shots feel a little more attainable this week.
I was slow to react to Achane-mania before his injury so i won’t make that same mistake in what is a great spot. The Raiders give up the 8th most Draftkings points per game to RB’s and outside of Maxx Crosby are low on front seven difference makers. Traveling cross country to bake on the non shaded visitor sideline at Hard Rock stadium sounds like a recipe for potential disaster…or in our case, a 100 + yard day with multiple TD’s. I didn’t tack on the Dolphins defense from the same mindset that i have with previously but on a slate that doesn’t have many exciting low cost options i feel like they are a good compromise. They are a home favorite facing a late round rookie QB who hasn’t really been pushed since he was inserted as the starter. As sound as Aidan O’Connell has looked as a player I’m willing to bet that he makes a couple mistakes with a larger sample size.
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