Week 17 DraftKings lineup

Posted on by Michael Crawford

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Matthew Stafford at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 6,600

RB: Devin Singletary at Houston DraftKings salary: 5,600

RB: Kyren Williams at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 8,300

WR: Deandre Hopkins at Houston DraftKings salary: 6,000

WR: Puka Nacua at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 7,900

WR: Darius Slayton vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 3,400

TE: Noah Fant vs. Pittsburgh DraftKings salary: 2,700

FLEX: Chris Olave at Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 6,800

DST: Panthers D/ST at Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 2,700

Reasoning: The offenses to invest most in on this slate are pretty clear…49ers, Eagles and Rams. Of this trio, the group falling most under the radar is the Rams passing game…so here we are. With Demarcus Robinson playing essentially every snap and Tyler Higbee playing just enough to be a contrarian add on, there’s a couple different ways to try to play this to go solely thru Stafford’s arm, but the matchup is so good for Kyren and if anybody is going to have a true ceiling game on this team…Kyren is probably your first guess. His double digit target share in 7 games this season doesn’t rule out him and Stafford hooking up for a score. Puka’s higher aDot and target share versus the blitz gave him the coin flip edge over Cooper Kupp in this lineup but i’ll certainly be running variations of this with Kupp in instead. Darius Slayton is an cost effective runback whose ceiling is raised with vertical pusher, Tyrod Taylor taking over at QB.

I’m still trying to decide how much CJ Stroud i want to play this week but regardless where that lands, one of my favorite skinny stacks will be Devin Singletary or Nico Collins with Deandre Hopkins. Over the last 3 games, Singletary has taken back a decisive share of the RB carries and the offensive environment gets a huge boost with Stroud back under center. The matchup isn’t the road block it used to be as the Titans run defense has got from stout to just middling over the course of the season. Singletary is one of my favorite players on the slate, regardless of position. The last time we saw this Texans defense they were getting rocked by Amari Cooper for 265 yards receiving. Dhop isn’t what he was in Houston but he’s still a catch point maestro whose adept at finding the holes in zone. The hope here is that Stroud’s return creates ample scoring chances and forces Will Levis into “DHop down there somewhere” mode.

Another one of my favs this week is Chris Olave. No matter where he lines up on Sunday he’ll have an advantage but he spends 38% of his snaps in the slot, a spot that has been a cash machine versus this Bucs defense.

Fant as a TE play was one i kinda just stumbled into today during prep. He’s coming off season high’s in route participation the last 2 weeks and while he got blanked on the scoreboard versus a Titans defense that gives up the least amount of targets and DK points to TE’s…he get’s middling TE matchup versus the Steelers that could be softer with Pittsburgh having injuries down the spine of their defense as ILB Elandon Roberts and both safeties, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Trenton Thompson all slated to miss this game. The Steelers rush is still formidable & DK will have to tussle w/standout rookie Joey Porter Jr, factors that could funnel a couple more targets to Fant. This game is probably isn’t going to be all that fantasy friendly but at just $2,700 i could see him turning 5 or 6 targets into a useful score at low rostership.

The Panthers D/ST fell on their face last week but that won’t stop me from going back this week. Their pass defense remains very good but their run defense can’t hold water. It felt like Aaron Jones had 70 yards on the ground before Scott Hanson got comfortable in his chair on redzone. This week they get a backup QB and while Travis Etienne is very dangerous, his offensive line has been a danger to his rushing production. Etienne hasn’t crossed 80 yards rushing since week 5 and only has 2 such games all season. At just $2,700, the Panthers will come in handy with all these good expensive plays.

Week 16 DraftKings lineup

Posted on by Michael Crawford

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Nick Mullens vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 5,300

RB: Devon Achane vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 7,100

RB: Chuba Hubbard vs. Green Bay DraftKings salary: 5,700

WR: Jordan Addison vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 6,000

WR: DK Metcalf at Tennessee DraftKings salary: 6,700

WR: Jameson Williams at Minnesota DraftKings salary: 3,700

TE: TJ Hockenson vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 5,800

FLEX: DJ Moore vs. Arizona DraftKings salary: 6,900

DST: Panthers D/ST vs. Green Bay DraftKings salary: 2,400

Reasoning: If you told me before the season that i would be trotting out some of the QB plays that i have in recent weeks I’d tell that i lost my mind, but here we are. Injuries combined with the statistical underachieving of some of the top QBs has opened up more options into the “sure, why not?” territory. Nick Mullens falls squarely into the category and i love his surrounding’s this week. He’s playing for one of the better play callers in the NFL, has a very good group of weapons at his disposal, will be in a game that should be played at an elevated pace and has good odds to be the highest scoring game on the slate. Now because of the reasons i laid out, Mullens figures to be popular so my first risk taking step here is to stack him without Justin Jefferson. Jordan Addison’s big play ceiling combined with the likelihood that Hockenson falls under the radar with Trey McBride and David Njoku’s recent hot streaks gives me comfort that this combo won’t be landed on often. Jameson Williams is coming off a season high 72% of routes per fantasylife.com and makes for an obvious cheap attachment game.

I alluded to it on twitter earlier this week so i had to stay on brand and run my favorite skinny stack of the week here. Chuba Hubbard and Panthers D/ST just makes so much sense and fit so cozy in a lot of builds to save money and get different. The obvious concern here for Chuba is high end ceiling but he’s a price pivot to Ty Chandler, will get volume regardless how the game goes and has a good matchup versus a exploitable Packers run defense. And then we have an underpriced Carolina D/ST led by stud DC Ejiro Evero. Shout out to Jeff Haseley who pointed out that the Panthers have yet to allow a 300 yard passer this season, rank 3rd in total defense and pass defense and have held 8 QB’s below 200 yards passing. Now they have been vulnerable on the ground and we’ll need to reconcile that but an up and down Packers offense going on the road, likely without Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave and possibly without Jayden Reed and AJ Dillion doesn’t sound like one i need to be overly concerned with. Overall the hope is that by sprinkling the Panthers defense on like garnish, we get a few more carries from Chuba as the Panthers offense plays keep away, with one (fingers crossed) or more (hey, it is almost Christmas) of those carries landing in the end zone.

Before i prep for slates i try to compile a list of the highest ceiling plays at each position. After I’ve done my research i go back and try to poke holes in those players cases and see who makes it thru. Devon Achane made it thru and I’m shocked he hasn’t for more people. His opportunity has moved that far off of where it was when he was breaking fantasy pre injury. He still looks just as explosive, the Dolphins run rate has climbed and it’s no reason to think that won’t at least stabilize considering what happened to the Cowboys run defense last week and the presence of their monstrous pass rush. Achane can get it done on the ground or via the quick passing game with the health of the Dolphins offensive line being a concern. As we’ve seen with him, it doesn’t take 20 touches for him to get where he needs to and love landing on such a high ceiling at low rostership.

My first inclination with my last 2 spots was to find another skinny stack but i opted to just go with plays i liked the most. DK Metcalf and DJ Moore landed on that ceiling list with Devon Achane this week. Both have good matchups, target shares and the ability to put up a score that make them essential. While they both will be played i don’t think either reaches problematic levels of rostership.

Week 15 DraftKings lineup

Posted on by Michael Crawford

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Tommy DeVito at New Orleans DraftKings salary: 5,000

RB: Bijan Robinson at Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,800

RB: Kyren Williams vs. Washington DraftKings salary: 7,500

WR: Mike Evans at Green Bay DraftKings salary: 7,500

WR: Jayden Reed vs. Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 4,900

WR: Deebo Samuel at Arizona DraftKings salary: 7,700

TE: Darren Waller at New Orleans DraftKings salary: 4,400

FLEX: Michael Wilson vs. San Francisco DraftKings salary: 3,300

DST: Jets D/ST at Miami DraftKings salary: 2,500

Reasoning: It’s hard to get really excited about many QB plays on this slate, and the few that you can? so is everybody else. I’ll be rocking with the field on Matthew Stafford and Brock Purdy but you didn’t come here to hear about the same ole guys everybody else is propping up, now did you?

In a week where none of us really want to commit to a 1 pm game, Giants-Saints intrigues me. A dome game where both offenses play at an elevated pace, Tommy DeVito has room to keep his feel good story going. This heavy man Saints defense has given up the 3rd most rushing yards to QBs, no doubt a welcome sight for Brian Daboll. Per Fantasylife.com, the “sneaky” (hehe) athletic DeVito has 18% and 14% of the Giants designed rush attempts over their last 2 games. On the passing side of things, the Saints are down 2 starters in the secondary and have middling at best pressure numbers. At just 5K and a rushing floor in the tuck, i like Devito’s chance of returning real value, with room for more if the environment permits. His stacking partner carries risk as well but the reward outweighs it. His health and playing time are a concerns but if they weren’t he’d be the best TE play on this slate. The last time we saw a full game from Darren Waller it was with Devito in a game where put up a 7-98-1 line on a 30% target share. He also represents a nice pivot on a popular 3,700 Wan’dale Robinson. A player who had a 9% target share in Waller’s last full game.

I like taking care of the onesies positions in a correlated way on the cheap, especially when i don’t feel like I’m full on punting. I’ll play with different run back variations once Chris Olave’s status is clear but for now it’s tough to pinpoint.

With my contrarian primary stack to start, i can afford to move without restrictions with my RB selections. Kyren Williams’ usage makes any non CMC back envious, and like CMC..makes him pretty matchup proof. Bijan Robinson on the other hand has maybe THE running back matchup as nobody has surrendered more TDs to the position…and with 3 carries inside the 5 yard line last week per Hayden Winks, Bijan looks to be in great position to take advantage.

The skinny stack of Mike Evans and Jayden Reed will be popular but for good reason. With Christian Watson doubtful to play (sigh), Reed will have no issue running enough routes to flirt with double digit targets. He also gets a slot matchup versus Tampa Bay that has been lucrative this season. Mike Evans had a quiet week last week because of the bracket coverage he received, making him an auto play for me if people are scared off a bit. The field has gotten a lot better at avoiding those kind of mistakes but he’ll certainly be less popular than he would if he put up 150 yards and 2 TDs. Anytime you can get a player in your lineup with his ceiling at discounted rostership. You take it.

My other skinny stack starts with a coin flip play. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk will factor heavily in what I’m doing this week and i’ll likely have variations of this lineup with both guys but because I don’t have CMC or Purdy in this lineup…Deebo feels like the player that could theoretically take away from CMC on the ground and take away from Purdy in the air with his rushing upside. Michael Wilson is a cheap, correlated run back who put up a 7-76-2 line in the 1st matchup between these 2 teams. The 49ers may be without starting corner Charvarius Ward, a potential added boost in a game that where drop backs will probably trend up for Arizona facing this high powered 49ers offense.

Closing this one out with the Jets defense facing a super banged Dolphins offense. Nearly every starter along their offensive line is either out or has a chance to miss the game while the engine of their offense, Tyreek Hill is a true game time decision. Rookie phenom Devon Achane is also questionable. It’s a no brainer play if those main guys miss but even if they don’t, the Jets have an outstanding pass defense and held Tua Tagovailoa to 243 yards passing, 1 TD and 2 interceptions in their week 12 matchup. They will no doubt carry some popularity at their price but it may be muted a bit if Tyreek and Achane are in. Either way we’ve gotten different enough to afford it with our start.

Prospect Watch (2024 OT Preview)

Posted on by chrisaguilera1

Offensive Tackle Outlook For 2024 Ravens

As I write this section of the offensive tackle position, I have tears running down my face (not really but I am sad) because of the reality we as Raven fans have to face about Ronnie Stanley. Unfortunately for Ronnie & the Ravens, it looks as if all of the injuries have caught up with our boy. Athletically, Ronnie still moves pretty well but his ability to anchor has severely been compromised & we see him get bulled back into the pocket more than he ever has. Major props to Ronnie for battling back from a catastrophic injury where moronic fans (maybe even a certain head coach) questioned his toughness or desire to play. This season he’s played through an injury that’s clearly hampering his ability to perform. As valiant of an effort Ronnie has been giving over the last few seasons, it’s becoming clearer and clearer the Ravens need to start planning for life after Ronnie. Looking at the cap implications with Ronnie & how difficult it would be to throw a late 1st round rookie LT into the starting line up if they do draft one, are major factors when thinking about moving on from him. Right now I believe it’s a better bet that he’ll stick around on the roster & the Ravens try to replicate a Tyron Smith/Tyler Smith like scenario the Cowboys have. For those who don’t know, the Cowboys were in a similar situation the Ravens are currently in where their top tier often injured OT, couldn’t be relied on to stay healthy. The Cowboys drafted Tyler Smith to be their insurance at LT if Tyron got hurt again but if Tyron stayed healthy, Tyler would be their LG. It’s been best case scenario for them as they now have one of the top left side of the offensive line in the NFL. This would obviously be the dream scenario for the Ravens.

Flipping over to the right side & theres less of a concern for the Right Tackle position going into 2024 as I see Morgan Moses being the starter. Beyond the 2024 season is where things get murky for RT & even the valuable swing tackle spot as Morgan Moses & Patrick Mekari are entering the last year of their deals. Daniel Faalele could still be in the cards as the future RT but the limited playing time he’s gotten this season has been less than encouraging. It would be quick to write him off completely as we’ve seen players develop in years 3 or 4 ie. Ben Powers, Pat Mekari, Matt Skura (before the injury).

Offensive tackles under contract for 2024

Ronnie Stanley

Morgan Moses

Patrick Mekari

Daniel Faalele

The Prospects

The 2024 OT class is shaping up to be one of the deepest ones we’ve ever seen. The most offensive linemen taken in the first 2 rounds of a draft happened in 1963 & 1966 where 12 were drafted. I believe this class could get to that number or pretty damn close. It felt nasty having to rank these players because they’re all so talented. You’ll see names at the bottom of this list who would typically be ranked somewhere between 4 & 6 in a normal OT class but this year is so rich with talent, you can legitimately see teams draft OT 10 & have a starter on their hands. Without further ado, here’s the preliminary look at the very exciting OT class.

1. Joe Alt, Notre Dame 6’7ft 322lbs (Junior)

  • Son of former Chiefs offensive lineman & 1st round pick John Alt
  • Team Captain and has over 30 games started dating back to his true freshman season
  • Great size & build with more to add to his frame
  • Very polished for a player who is still only 20 years old (Turns 21 in February)
  • Plays with a sturdy base & anchors well against bigger defenders
  • Uses his length well to lock out defenders or make run the full arc
  • Is a bulldozer in the run game
  • Looks like a stiff when he’s in his stance with his ass tooted up so high but he has surprisingly good athleticism

2. Olu Fashanu, Penn st 6’6ft 317lbs (RSJunior)

  • Has 21 starts at LT under his belt before he turned 21 (12/9) & was a team captain
  • Really great athletic build with more to add onto an already solid frame
  • Lightning quick hands when having to reset them
  • Uses his length & timing really well & not letting defenders get comfortable with the timing of his punch
  • Smooth footwork with not only his pass sets but gets to his marks in the run game easily & efficiently
  • Shows the ability to recover well when beat on a defender’s initial move
  • Does struggle against power at times & setting his anchor down against stronger pass rushers

3. JC Latham, Alabama 6’6ft 360lbs (Junior)

  • Former 5 star recruit who saw action from his true freshman season & secured the starting RT spot in his sophomore year, finishing his career with 25 starts at 20 years old.
  • Massive & powerful player. Went to work on his body in the off season & added 26lbs of muscle while reducing his body fat.
  • Isn’t your ordinary big powerful blocker. Also flashes impressive movements skills to pair with his freakish power 
  • Looks to have the ability to move over to the left side which is where he played at IMG Academy. The reason he didn’t this season according to Nick Saban was to keep offensive line continuity
  • Has one of the strongest punches who’ll see from an offensive lineman
  • Plays very balanced in his pass sets & gets out of his stance quickly, displaying the footwork of someone who’s 315lbs rather than 360lbs

4. Talise Fuaga, Jr, Oregon st, 6’6ft 334lbs (RSsenior)

  • 25 Starts at RT over the last 2 seasons & was named team captain in 2023
  • Massive powerful tackle who has a bear like punch
  • More nimble than you would expect for someone so big. Mostly played OG in HS & only RT in college but could have some physical tools to be a swing tackle
  • Had the knack for elevating his game when it was crunch time to close games out late in the 4th quarter
  • If you watch his HS tape he was the type of player who only relied on being big but the progression he’s made at Oregon St, you see a player who had improved tremendously with a better understanding of leverage & angles to pair with his incredible power
  • Has to do a better job of staying patient & trusting his length instead of lunging at pass rushers

5. Troy Fautanu, Washington 6’3ft 319lbs (RSsenior)

  • Has 28 starts at LT but has a handful of LG starts under his belt in both the 2021 & 2022 seasons
  • Has the body type better suited to play guard & his skill set will most likely translate best at LG when projecting to the pros but has legit arm length with 34 3/4 arms according to The Athletic’s Dane Brugler
  • Made a considerable jump with his LT play from 2022 to 2023 & although he could be a better LG, I do believe he can play LT in a pinch with the way he’s performed in throughout the 2023 season
  • Very active & abrupt hands. Prefers to strike 1st & strike often when hand fighting with defenders
  • Good athleticism & footwork when having to pull 
  • His pass sets aren’t always pretty but they get the job done in a blue collar scrapping tooth & nail
  • At times can dip his head when he’s engaged with a defender & causing him to lose his balance
  • Can have frantic feet sometimes. Would love to see him be more patient with his feet
  • Worry about his ability to anchor against bigger pass rushers

6. Amarius Mims, Georgia 6’7ft 340lbs (Junior)

  • 5 star recruit who has 8 starts over his career & earned a solid amount of reps as a reserve platooning the RT position for Georgia. Has only played RT in college but did earn a start at LT in 2021 during the Georgia spring game after being the number 3 ranked LT in country
  • Limited playing experience. Was a part time player in 2022 then suffered a lower leg injury early in 2023 before ultimately getting hurt again against Alabama.
  • Has all of the physical tools in the world. Great size, length & athleticism but the missing reps has limited the amount of growth we’ve been able to see from him. At only 21 he’s still just scratching the surface of what he could be
  • Has the frame and natural power taylor made for what today’s OT is supposed to look like
  • Moves well and has good feet for someone his size. Has the physical tools to possibly be an LT option
  • Feet can sometimes get stuck in the mud when has to redirect while dealing with a secondary pass rush move

7. Graham Barton, Duke 6’5ft 315lbs (Senior)

  • Barton has 34 starts at LT & 5 at C throughout his career Duke. Missed 4 games this season and battled through a lower leg injury through the middle of the season before coming back & finishing the last two games of season
  • Very technically sound player who plays with patience
  • Understands leverage & angles in order to help him execute his blocks
  • Plays with very good balance 
  • Can get his hands outside of the defenders pads & grabbing cloth a bit too much
  • Has some experience playing Center early in his career before moving to LT full time
  • Doesn’t look like a LT or have the physical traits that pop off of the screen but is a technically sound player who will fight to the bone trying to win every rep

8. Jordan Morgan, Arizona 6’5ft 325lbs (RSsenior)

  • Morgan has 37 starts at LT during his time at Arizona & has been a two time team captain for the squad
  • Would’ve most likely already been in the NFL if he didn’t tear his ACL in November of 2022
  • Great build on a solid frame with length 
  • Has the quickness and footwork to get out of his stance quickly to protect against speed rushes
  • When he stays square, he does a good job setting his butt down & anchoring
  • Shows nice strength & leg drive in the run game. Has some mauler in him when getting dirty 
  • Has a tendency of playing upright which can sometimes get him in trouble when stronger rushers shift his weight with rips & pulls 
  • Looks like a better linear athlete than one who can redirect quickly

9. Patrick Paul, Houston 6’7ft 315lbs

  • Two time team captain with a ton of experience. Has 44 starts over his career
  • The younger brother of Commanders OG Chris Paul
  • Massive size and length with the ability to use it well, forcing defenders to run the arc
  • His punch and hand placement can be all over the place. Sometimes getting well outside the defenders pads, leading to him getting very grabby
  • Very powerful run blocking. He doesn’t just rely on his size but he will drive defenders well out of their gaps
  • Plays with good flexibility, looseness & movement for someone his size  

10. Kingsley Suamataia, BYU 6’6ft 325lbs (RSsophomore)

  • Former 5 star recruit & Oregon Duck before transferring to BYU in 2022 where he became a team captain in 2023
  • He’s the cousin of Penei and Noah Sewell & High school teammate of Puka Nacua
  • Played right tackle exculsivley in 2022 before moving over to Left tackle for the 2023 season
  • Plays with a mean streak and to the echo of the whistle
  • More of a tackle who depends on strength and likes to impose his will
  • Moves well and has nimble feet for a player his size
  • Just scratching the surface of what he can be. Thought he could’ve been a candidate to go back to school to improve his stock and get some more seasoning but which ever team selects him could be getting a massive value for where he’s taken

11. Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma 6’6ft 327lbs (RSjunior)

  • Former TCU left tackle & H-Back before transferring to Oklahoma in 2022. In 2022 Guyton had 1 start at LT & 4 at RT. In 2023 he locked down the RT spot, starting 9 games.
  • Freakish build & athletic ability. You quickly see the natural agility & movement skills he has
  • Packs power with his punch & uses his length very well
  • Still a bit raw with his pass pro technique, mainly sustaining blocks & keeping his hands inside but you can see a clear jump from his 2022 tape to his 2023 tape
  • Can clear things out in a hurry in the run game
  • Has the physical tools to be possibly flip to the left side

12. Kiran Amegadjie, Yale 6’5ft 326lbs (Junior)

  • Has been a starter throughout his collegiate career with 10 starts at RG in 2021 and 14 starts at LT in 2022 & 2023
  • Very physical player in the run game
  • Heavy & violent hands to jolt defenders with his 36 3/4 arms
  • Wasn’t facing the hardest level of competition while at Yale but the tools are there to mold into a very solid player
  • Has good athleticism & power to possibly make a nice transition inside to OG
  • Footwork was a bit all over the place coming out of his stance
  • Can be a bit grabby, getting his hands on the outside of a defenders shoulder pads
  • Suffered a season ending quad injury in the forth game of the season & won’t be able to participate in the Senior Bowl

Week 14 DraftKings Lineup

Posted on by Michael Crawford

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Lamar Jackson vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 7,700

RB: Christian McCaffrey vs. Seattle DraftKings salary: 9,200

RB: Zack Moss at Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 5,900

WR: Davante Adams vs. Minnesota DraftKings salary: 7,500

WR: Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 3,800

WR: DJ Moore vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 6,500

TE: Brycen Hopkins at Baltimore DraftKings salary: 2,500

FLEX: Jaxon Smith-Njigba at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 4,100

DST: Broncos DST vs. Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary: 2,800

Reasoning: Sounds like people are gravitating to Brock Purdy & Jake Browning (Not a typo), and if they decide to pay up they are more inclined to do so with Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. Pivoting to a player with arguably a higher ceiling than any of them gives me a cozy contrarian start. While Rams DC Raheem Morris has done a masterful job raising this roster to middle, they aren’t a unit to fear and have one of the lower pressure rates in the league. They’ve also allowed the 5th most rushing attempts and 2nd most rushing attempts to QBs.

OBJ stands out as my favorite value this week. At only 3,800 he has a 40% target per route run rate in back to back games. The team already went out of their way once to get him a TD late in a blowout…i can’t imagine a game versus his former team not eliciting similar motivation. I gave thought to double stacking with inexpensive and probably popular TE Isaiah Likely, but with a strong run game and so many pass catchers involved it felt like a good opportunity to pivot and correlate at the same time. My thinking on how this plays out with Tyler Higbee doubtful is that Hunter Long will be used to block versus these Ravens pressure packages and Davis Allen will continue to see the lion share of work on special teams…leaving Brycen Hopkins to absorb a solid chunk of Tyler Higbee’s routes. At the minimum price I’ll gladly take my 4 catches for 40 yards and go…but more would be nice 🙂

I won’t be riding the Purdy wave this week to the same degree as everybody, maybe not even at all…but i will be getting to San Francisco plenty. There’s no better place to start than the engine of their offense in CMC. He’s matchup proof but the Seahawks giving up the 5th most DK points per game and 5th most RB receptions certainly makes me feel better. Running it back with JSN isn’t reinventing the wheel but Geno Smith’s pregame focus of getting the ball out quicker led to a season high 11 targets for Smith-Njigba. In a game where the 49ers will put up points and sport a fire pass rush since the Chase Young trade, JSN should at least get his compile on.

There is too much good content and information out there now for people to get scared off Zack Moss after last week’s down game. This may sound like hyperbole but his role is the envy of all his peers and the matchup is sweet as the Bengals defense has fallen off the wagon. Even with a price bump, Moss is still probably at least $1,000 too cheap.

Mike Evans and Ja’Marr Chase will draw more interest at this price point but Davante Adams is a pivot to get excited about. The Vikings have a legit good run defense and with their All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson returning, I think they’ll put up points on this Raiders defense. Even with Las Vegas’ run heavy ways since Josh McDaniels got the boot…Adams still has 40 targets in 4 games. We know Brian Flores is dreaming of the blitzes he’s going to dial up against a rookie signal caller and as the good folks over at one week season pointed out, Adams leads the league in target share versus the blitz.

Going right back to attacking the Chargers offense this week. Everyone is always looking for a cheap defense so I’m stunned that more people aren’t on a Broncos defense that has basically tightened up since giving up that 70 piece to the Dolphins while i could find more points in my couch cushions then the Chargers have scored the last 2 weeks. The same issues exist and Josh Palmer won’t be back to give them another competent piece in their receiver corps. It’s a pretty easy play.

Week 13 DraftKings lineup

Posted on by Michael Crawford

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Bryce Young at Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 4,900

RB: David Montgomery at New Orleans DraftKings salary: 6,500

RB: Zack Moss at Titans DraftKings salary: 4,600

WR: Tyreek Hill at Washington DraftKings salary: 9,600

WR: Adam Thielen at Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 6,600

WR: Deebo Samuel at Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 6,200

TE: Stephen Sullivan at Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 2,500

FLEX: Rachaad White vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,800

DST: Patriots DST vs. Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary: 2,400

Reasoning: Looking at my QB play you may be thinking the long season is starting to get to me, and you’re partially right but on a slate where the pay up’s aren’t slam dunks and some of the good plays have ceiling questions…i like the idea of experimenting with the variance of this situation. With Frank Reich gone and the combination of Thomas Brown and Jim Caldwell leading the way, i think we see modern finishes and a stabilization of this offense. It’s no guarantee but it’s certainly possible we see a lot more motion, a higher pass rate matching the weakness of the opponent, a boost in pace and more rubs to get Jonathan Mingo yards after the catch opportunities. They land in a great matchup versus a banged up Bucs pass defense giving up the 8th most yards per completion. Adam Thielen is the obvious 1st stacking partner is a tremendous slot matchup and his price has dropped to a that doesn’t make you full wince. With injuries to Hayden Hurst and Tommy Tremble both likely to miss this game, Stephen Sullivan should run at least 60+% of the routes against a Tampa Bay team that has allowed the 3rd most targets to the position and will be without inside linebacker Lavonte David.

I thought briefly about running it back with Mike Evans and Rachaad White but i look at the 37 game total again and thought better of it. Rachaad won out based upon the beautiful matchup on the ground.

The Zack Moss play doesn’t require much elaboration…I’ll be playing a couple non Moss lineups just to have that potential field edge at my disposal but he’s such a great play that i won’t be getting too cute.

Montgomery fills my priority for Lions exposure…they are tied for the highest team total on the slate and all their pieces are falling under the radar this week. With a negative script to the degree it was for them on Thanksgiving unlikely, Montgomery is set up for a shot at 20 carries and multiple goal line opportunities.

Another pretty self explanatory play, Tyreek Hill is on a scorching pace and gets a Commanders defense that just fired their DC. While the Dolphins as a whole haven’t lived up to the greatest show on surf standard they started the season off with…Tyreek is too good and utilized to ideally to see him fail in this spot.

Deebo is an interesting entrance point to this Eagles-49ers NFC supremacy game. Yes he fits in stacks with the likely popular Brock Purdy, he can act as leverage on Purdy and CMC because of his involvement in the run game and with both teams having strong offenses and strong traditional run defenses, his passing game volume could peak a bit as well. In a perfect world he gobbles up 8 to 10 targets and punches in a couple red zone rushing scores.

It’s slim pickings on cheap defenses this week but i like betting on the Chargers traveling across country to put Brandon Staley out of his misery. This offense was in desperate need of juice coming into the season and with a banged up skill group, including Keenan Allen…it’s somehow gotten worse. Austin Ekeler looks a step slower and Quentin Johnston just isn’t ready to impact NFL games. This game feels destined to be played in the teens.