By Carey Stevenson
QB: Lamar Jackson vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 7,700
RB: Christian McCaffrey vs. Seattle DraftKings salary: 9,200
RB: Zack Moss at Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 5,900
WR: Davante Adams vs. Minnesota DraftKings salary: 7,500
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 3,800
WR: DJ Moore vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 6,500
TE: Brycen Hopkins at Baltimore DraftKings salary: 2,500
FLEX: Jaxon Smith-Njigba at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 4,100
DST: Broncos DST vs. Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary: 2,800
Reasoning: Sounds like people are gravitating to Brock Purdy & Jake Browning (Not a typo), and if they decide to pay up they are more inclined to do so with Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. Pivoting to a player with arguably a higher ceiling than any of them gives me a cozy contrarian start. While Rams DC Raheem Morris has done a masterful job raising this roster to middle, they aren’t a unit to fear and have one of the lower pressure rates in the league. They’ve also allowed the 5th most rushing attempts and 2nd most rushing attempts to QBs.
OBJ stands out as my favorite value this week. At only 3,800 he has a 40% target per route run rate in back to back games. The team already went out of their way once to get him a TD late in a blowout…i can’t imagine a game versus his former team not eliciting similar motivation. I gave thought to double stacking with inexpensive and probably popular TE Isaiah Likely, but with a strong run game and so many pass catchers involved it felt like a good opportunity to pivot and correlate at the same time. My thinking on how this plays out with Tyler Higbee doubtful is that Hunter Long will be used to block versus these Ravens pressure packages and Davis Allen will continue to see the lion share of work on special teams…leaving Brycen Hopkins to absorb a solid chunk of Tyler Higbee’s routes. At the minimum price I’ll gladly take my 4 catches for 40 yards and go…but more would be nice 🙂
I won’t be riding the Purdy wave this week to the same degree as everybody, maybe not even at all…but i will be getting to San Francisco plenty. There’s no better place to start than the engine of their offense in CMC. He’s matchup proof but the Seahawks giving up the 5th most DK points per game and 5th most RB receptions certainly makes me feel better. Running it back with JSN isn’t reinventing the wheel but Geno Smith’s pregame focus of getting the ball out quicker led to a season high 11 targets for Smith-Njigba. In a game where the 49ers will put up points and sport a fire pass rush since the Chase Young trade, JSN should at least get his compile on.
There is too much good content and information out there now for people to get scared off Zack Moss after last week’s down game. This may sound like hyperbole but his role is the envy of all his peers and the matchup is sweet as the Bengals defense has fallen off the wagon. Even with a price bump, Moss is still probably at least $1,000 too cheap.
Mike Evans and Ja’Marr Chase will draw more interest at this price point but Davante Adams is a pivot to get excited about. The Vikings have a legit good run defense and with their All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson returning, I think they’ll put up points on this Raiders defense. Even with Las Vegas’ run heavy ways since Josh McDaniels got the boot…Adams still has 40 targets in 4 games. We know Brian Flores is dreaming of the blitzes he’s going to dial up against a rookie signal caller and as the good folks over at one week season pointed out, Adams leads the league in target share versus the blitz.
Going right back to attacking the Chargers offense this week. Everyone is always looking for a cheap defense so I’m stunned that more people aren’t on a Broncos defense that has basically tightened up since giving up that 70 piece to the Dolphins while i could find more points in my couch cushions then the Chargers have scored the last 2 weeks. The same issues exist and Josh Palmer won’t be back to give them another competent piece in their receiver corps. It’s a pretty easy play.
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