| Tier 1-Elite QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB1 | Jalen Hurts | He gets kidnapped before the season starts. | Tougher schedule leads to more shootouts. Hurts’ talent being pushed behind an elite offensive line and front end weapons spell a historic season. |
| QB2 | Patrick Mahomes | See above. | The Chiefs have the 6th hardest schedule and Chris Jones still hasn’t shown up. Mahomes is frightening enough as is but if he gets pushed in a few more games the results will be gaudy. |
| QB3 | Josh Allen | Between the Bills adding 2 between the tackles bangers in the offseason and their preseason commitment to James Cook…maybe they finally start ease up Josh Allen’s carries. | With Damien Harris banged up, Latavius Murray not really being featured in preseason and James Cook not being a standout goal line runner…there’s a realistic world where Josh Allen remains the goal line back/distributor which would give him as good of odds as any to finish as the QB1. |
| QB4 | Lamar Jackson | The drastic offensive shift still has kinks that need to be worked out, leading to some good but not great early fantasy outputs. Feels pretty certain that their will be noticeably less designed run calls. Rashod Bateman and OBJ injury questions linger. | Lamar has been a terrorizing runner playing in a heavy offense with lots of condensed sets…so imagine the damage he can do in the open field with spread formation essentially being the new base? With by far the best weapons and fastest pace of his career, we could be about to see the self actualized version of Lamar Jackson. And the QB1. |
| Tier 2-High End QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB5 | Justin Fields | The Bears offensive approach pre 2022 bye is their preferred one and with more weapons and a little more OL optimism..they lean back into that and don’t leverage Fields’ legs as much. | Continued focus on using his legs as a threat combined with organic progression as a passer could lead to a 2021 Jalen Hurts type of season with room for more if he takes a substantial leap or the pace improves. |
| QB6 | Joe Burrow | The obvious risk is missing time early but he quietly had 5 rushing TDs last season. One would imagine that even if he’s good to go for week 1, they’ll tread lightly on designed runs and he’ll trad lightly on scrambles. For pocket passers we need truly insane passing numbers to make up for a lack of rushing production. | Their lowest of the low aDot is added by their Offensive Tackle shuffle and even with teams playing shell coverage trying to keep Chase in check they are able find more chunk plays. If QB health holds they will have a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses compared to last year as pointed out by Bill Barnwell. They also lost both starting safeties on defense. Both factors could aid shootout potential. |
| QB7 | Justin Herbert | His low YPA isn’t a Joe Lombardi or a Rashawn Slater issue. Quentin Johnston struggles with consistency and forms a time share with Joshua Palmer, leaving them nearly as juice-less as they were last season. | Herbert has the arm talent to challenge every blade of grass on the field and has long been empowered from a pass rate perspective. Health on offense, Quentin Johnston’s yac juice and the addition of Kellen Moore prove to be the Febreze this offense needed for him to reach back to 2021 success. |
| Tier 3-Potential High End QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB8 | Deshaun Watson | 2022 was more erosion than rust. The significant defensive upgrades of Schwartz (play calling), Dalvin Tomlinson(run defense), Za’Darius Smith (pass rush), Juan Thornhill (backend range) combined with the best pure runner in football causes the team to rethink their evolution ideas when the weather gets cold. | The buzz we’ve heard of faster pace, more spread and more pass attempts comes to fruition. His rushing production stays on par and one of their talented young weapons take a leap. |
| QB9 | Trevor Lawrence | Lawrence’s 5th round ADP doesn’t give us much room for error. Extrapolating his 2022 post bye numbers won’t be enough. We need him to hit another gear to pay off that price tag. | Last season’s post bye aggressiveness bump was just the tip of the iceberg. With Calvin Ridley now on board to challenge vertically in a division littered with secondary questions, Tlaw takes another leap into the 4,500 + yard/30 + passing TD category |
| QB10 | Geno Smith | I’ve operated under the premise that Pete Carroll has been playing coy about the Seahawks personnel and the Seahawks are now a base 3 WR team. There’s still a chance that they aren’t and that chance grows if JSN misses significant time early…putting our ceiling scenarios into question. Especially if the defense, which has upgrades at every layer, improves. | Geno’s advanced accuracy numbers motivate the Seahawks to move even further in a fantasy friendly direction schematically (Pat Thorman has noted faster play in preseason). JSN becomes the beautiful chain moving compliment to their pass catching group and their young and talented OL continues to ascend. A top 6 finish is one the table. |
| QB11 | Anthony Richardson | He’s a very inexperienced player who may very soon be losing his most talented weapon. Richardson is a polarizing player whose on a much shorter list this year of late round QB’s with high end upside, making it possible that you may have to take him a round or 2 earlier depending on how your draft falls. | His talent is immense and he couldn’t have landed in a better spot to showcase. Shane Steichen’s history of leveraging QB’s mobility, coupled with his ability to tailor his passing game to fit where his QB is in his development give me good vibes. They’ve also played a lot faster in preseason than one would expect and have vertical weapons in Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman (YES HIM TOO) that match up with the strength of Richardson’s game. There’s also the chance that Jonathan Taylor’s absence puts more on Richardson’s plate from a rushing and playmaking standpoint. |
| QB12 | Daniel Jones | Maybe we’re putting too much dip on his chip? Daboll is so good that he can utilize his mobility and get him to play mistake free football but Jones himself isn’t talented enough to ascend to a higher tier. Brandon Thorn’s 23rd ranked Oline doesn’t take strides and all but assures it. | Adding Waller along with the certainty that there will be an NFL caliber receivers on the field at all times (albeit…INSERT SLOT WR JOKE), coupled with more experience in the system takes Jones from mistake free runner to legitimate fantasy difference maker. His 3.2% passing TD rate will rise even on accident. |
| Tier 4-Potential QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB13 | Dak Prescott | “I’ve been where Kellen has been: Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up,” “But I want to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense. I don’t desire to be the No. 1 offense in the league.” | As jarring as those comments were…like always, Rich Hribar has been a voice of reason. Mike McCarthy has never been a ground and pound coach and their personnel screams 3 WR spread. While they’ll assuredly play slower and run more, there is still room for Dak to produce within that. |
| QB14 | Kirk Cousins | Last year Cousins had the fire pace, pass rate, flammable defense and the 2nd most red zone pass attempts in the NFL…and still couldn’t get above the QB11. The Vikings also added one of the true needle moving defensive play callers in Brian Flores. I find it nearly impossible that their defense will be as bad as last year and if any of the other above factors shift in the wrong direction we could be looking at a streamer/bye week fill in kind of QB. | Jordan Addison caught 100 balls as a 19 year old, I think it’s fair to call him an upgrade over current stage Adam Thiele. There’s also the potential positive TD regression coming for Justin Jefferson. As much as I love the Flores addition, there are enough talent questions to put a cap on how good they can be. Even if the defense is mediocre (A massive win btw), there is still enough stylistic factors going Cousins way to make him worthy if he gets some TD luck. |
| QB15 | Tua Tagovailoa | His down post bye play has been explained away as just injury related but what if it was more adjustment related? LT already banged up on an OL with questions. Coaching staff has also stated a desire to run the ball more and they’ve had confirmed interest in Dalvin Cook and now Jonathan Taylor. They’ve also added one of the true difference making defensive minds in Vic Fangio. | It does feel a bit funny having a QB with two top 12 WR’s at QB15. Mike McDaniel has proven that he can create space and use play action to create chunk plays (3rd in the NFL in explosive pass plays last season).With the Jets and Pats making various degrees offensive strides, more points should be required to compete. |
| QB16 | Jared Goff | Goff feels a lot like Cousins in the sense that plenty went his way last year and he was good (really good considering where he was drafted) but can he be win you a fantasy championship good? The key difference between the 2 is Cousins’ team has a much higher pass rate. The Lions also completely transformed their secondary and should be a lot more formidable. | Ben Johnson is one of the most talented space creators in football, playing in a dome and was given Jahmyr Gibbs (99th percentile speed) and Sam LaPorta (91st percentile speed) to deploy. While they do have WR questions outside of Amon Ra St. Brown from a volume/target earning perspective, Kalif Raymond and Josh Reynolds are reasonably talented downfield threats. Goff could distribute his way to relevance via chunk plays. |
| QB17 | Aaron Rodgers | The Jets play as slow as Rodgers’ phone service was when the Packers tried calling him in the offseason. The OL concerns linger into the offseason and sway the Jets even further to the run. Their monstrous defense keep them there. | Arod steers an efficient offense and hijack’s the green zone offense i.e. 2020. A Davante Adams-ish season for Garrett Wilson and few timely deep shots to Mecole Hardman could push Rodgers into relevance. |
| Tier 5-Potential High End QB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB18 | Jordan Love | The inexperience of Love and his weapons lead to a methodical approach where they ease him into action and lean on Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon. There’s also the chance that he’s just not consistent enough on a down to down basis to be any more than a bye week fill in. | The wide range of outcomes makes this a situation I want to take a chance on. Considering LaFleur’s background, it’s a very good chance that the slow pace they’ve exhibited was a Aaron Rodgers thing. There’s also a chance that instead of hiding him behind a run game, they opt to stress test him to see what they have before making a long term QB decision. Armed with nice arm talent and good mobility…Love is my favorite rags to riches QB bet. |
| QB19 | Matt Stafford | Last year’s uneven and uncharacteristically conservative play from Stafford was more than a blip. The Oline is healthier but just not good. Stafford also has health concerns of his own. | The Rams have the 12th hardest strength of schedule and probably have the least talented defense of the McVay era. If they get back to playing at the normal super fast pace, Stafford could push for an insane amount of attempts. |
| QB20 | Sam Howell | He and Jordan Love have some alignment, the difference here is Howell’s margin for error is noticeably smaller. With new ownership in place, the whole organization is inherently on the hot seat if his play isn’t up to par they have the steady vet Jacoby Brissett waiting in the bullpen. There is also the worry that the Commanders could lean on the run game, especially with Terry McLaurin banged up early. | Like Love, Howell is a come up candidate. He’s an aggressive player with + mobility. With former Chiefs OC Eric Bienemy at the controls now, a breakout candidate in Jahan Dotson at receiver and talented space players like Curtis Samuel and Antonio Gibson in the fold, there’s lots to like. |
| QB21 | Kenny Pickett | Matt Canada’s stale and lethargic approach is less to do with inexperience or inadequate play at QB and more to do with just his overall steez. Sounds like there could be some rollercoaster action with 1st round tackle Broderick Jones on Brandon Thorn’s 28th ranked line. A line better suited to run the ball. | Pickett has had an extremely impressive preseason. He has the surrounding talent and movement skills to make some noise. If Canada cuts things loose a little more and makes some adjustments (Get George Pickens some higher percentage looks please) there could be something here. Every offense in the division has improved and even if he was blindfolded, Pickett should throw more TD passes this season. |
| QB22 | Russell Wilson | Last season wasn’t an outlier and he’s with a coach who won’t bend his offense to fit the way Russ can best create leaving this offense as a run heavy outfit where Wilson is more so along for the ride or in a worst case is on the bench. | Similar to the Patriots, the Broncos get a big offensive coaching bump. Sean Payton will challenge Russ in a way that Nathaniel Hackett coudn’t and the organization of the offense should be night and day different. They’ve invested in their offensive line and even with the injuries they’ve sustained they’ve still got a fair amount of weapons. |
| Tier 6-Mid to Low End QB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB23 | Brock Purdy | The defense and running game is too good for Purdy to try any other dances outside of a 2 step. Without pace, gaudy passing numbers or rushing production he only gets there with insane efficiency. If the run game steals a few more of those TDs, Purdy becomes just a guy from a fantasy standpoint. | Eyeballing the 49ers schedule and it looks a little tougher than the 11th easiest to me. While I expect this defense to remain very good they do have a new coordinator and have questions at corner and edge rusher. If the sliders get tweaked enough to force a few shootouts, Purdy has the weapons to do some damage. |
| QB24 | Kyler Murray | We don’t know if on when he’ll play, which in the short term isn’t a big deal if your league has an IR spot but when he does come back it’s not to a 4 WR spread. This Cardinals offense figures to be more methodical and Kyler’s edge as runner will likely be curved coming off major injury. | Your lotto ticket looks better if his return is late Sept/early Oct. It’s a jackpot situation if he’s his normal elusive self. Regardless of the coaching staff’s intention coming into a game, this team projects to be behind A LOT. Kyler in negative game script, running around like a bad toddler has given us the goods before…this time it would be at a much cheaper cost. |
| QB25 | Derek Carr | Nothing about the Saints offensive approach or Derek Carr’s play last year screams fantasy upside. | He lands in an offense much closer to the one he had his most statically success in with Jon Gruden. In fact, Gruden has been around New Orleans, presumably to help with the install. Despite their approach, this isn’t an offense short on talent. They also have pass rush and speed concerns on defense. A dome deserves shootouts, doesn’t it? |
| QB26 | Ryan Tannehill | We know this will be a slow, Derrick Henry centered offense until he’s no longer a Titan. With that cap placed on his ceiling he can’t afford Treylon Burks early season injury nor a shaky line to live down to preseason expectations. | New OC Tim Kelly has a history of RPO usage and leverage QB mobility and weapon wise you could do much worse that Dhop, Burks and Chig O as your top 3 weapons. If they remain a heavy play-action team (they actually need to ramp it back up), we could see some useful weeks. |
| QB27 | Jimmy Garoppolo | If you’ve reached down this far you’re really scraping the bowl. | He’s got history with McDaniels and while they lack a true lid lifter, the weapons are more than solid, especially if Michael Mayer can push for a decisive share of the TE snaps early on. |
| QB28 | Mac Jones | With Tyquan Thornton struggling in training camp, this looks like a passing game that lacks a fast ball. One that will have to rely on efficiency to get there. Annually one of the very best coached defenses, this year’s roster seems to have more ceiling setting talent..could be a standout unit that leans on the run game to compliment it and just needs the pass offense to caretake. | Their OC doesn’t have a pencil in his ear…that’s as good of a reward as any. To a lesser degree obviously but it’s reminiscent of the Jaguars going from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson. Sheer competence will go a long way. |
| QB29 | Bryce Young | The Panthers slow preseason is a sign of things to come. They have a fair amount of NFL caliber weapons but lack any potential ceiling setters until/if Jonathan Mingo arrives. | Bryce shows he’s the play elevator he seems to be and his improve skills lead to more runs than we’re projecting. |
| QB30 | CJ Stroud | Likely slow, run first O, defensive minded head coach who, shaky at best weaponry…I believe in Stroud as a real life difference maker but none of this screams fantasy upside. | Negative game scripts and rushing production is the likely the only savior here. |
| QB31 | Desmond Ridder | I think Ridder will be given an early opportunity to prove he’s him…but if he’s not this thing could go into a shell quickly. | Ridder’s situation is probably better than a few of the players ahead of him in this tier. Arthur Smith is a talented play action pass game creator and flanked with 3 skill players drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft with upgrades to their complementary players in Mack Hollins, Scott Miller and Jonnu Smith. |
| QB32 | Baker Mayfield | I mean, do I have to say it? | He’s not without weapons and Dave Canales does make for a interesting coordinator hire coming off what he was able to help Geno Smith accomplish last season. |
| QB33 | Josh Dobbs | Besides experience in the offense he’s not set up very well for success | Is his acquisition a sign that Kyler is further away? Making this an extended rehearsal. He does have some mobility. |
| Tier 7-Watchlist | Risk | Reward | |
| QB34 | Clayton Tune | We only see him with a clipboard | Next in line if Dobbs falters, Has some distributor qualities |
| QB35 | Jacoby Brissett | See above. | Howell falters early, the coaching staff feels their seat getting a little hotter and pull the plug. Brissett’s play last year lends some confidence that he could do a competent job. |
| QB36 | Sam Darnold | See above. | Purdy faces tougher defenses and turns into a pumpkin. Say what you will about Shanahan (I certainly have) but his system breeds QB efficiency. |
| QB37 | Kyle Trask | See above. | He’s a Baker meltdown away from playing time with a one of the better WR duos in the NFL. His arm strength could make things interesting, I don’t know if it’ll be good, but it’ll be interesting. |
| QB38 | Jared Stidham | See above. | He signed a deal that was just big enough to get me to raise and eyebrow, after a solid late season showing last year with the Raiders. If Russ is cooked or just can fall in line with Sean Payton’s approach, we could see Stidham get starts with one of the better play callers of this era at the controls. |
| QB39 | Taylor Heinicke | See above. | Ridder will be given every opportunity I’m sure but if he fails to answer the bell… |
| QB40 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | See above. | A standout preseason sealed DTR as the QB2 in Cleveland. Because the money invested it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they go away from Watson, even if his struggles continue…but DTR is one injury away, has wheels and coaching staff alignment. |
| QB41 | Bailey Zappe | Gets a couple practice squad call ups but doesn’t actually make the roster | Rumors that BB doesn’t like Mac Jones comes true. If anybody is willing to pull that trigger it’s him and Zappe is technically still the backup imo. |
Carey’s Fantasy Football Study Hall
By Carey Stevenson
Just how big a slice of the Bills running back pie will James Cook see when the season starts? When the Bills signed Damien Harris in free agency, my assumption was that he’d lead the backfield in touches, but camp reports have Cook first in line for carries with healthy passing game involvement. I’ve long felt there was a chance that a false equivalence was being made between the modest free agent deal that JD McKissic ultimately walked away from in comparison to the 2nd round investment the Bills made in Cook. Goal line work is probably me putting too much dip on my chip but Devin Singletary’s near 10% target share and 10-ish carries a game feels like a fair ask with room for more on both fronts. We’re not out of the woods yet, but it’s starting look like we can add Cook to a growing list of attractive non dead zone RBs.
Justin Jefferson is the deserving 1.01 and carries little risk but Cooper Kupp is my prediction for who will finish as the WR1. There are obvious injury concerns but his situation sets up for him to have a career high in targets, which is insane considering the current high is 191, but hear me out…Kupp will simultaneously be playing with the least target competition and the least talented defense of his Rams tenure. He was on pace for 185 targets last season while the Rams played at an uncharacteristic chopped and screwed pace (30th in neutral pace). With a healthier offensive line coming into 2023 I’m going to consider that a blip on the radar, setting Kupp up to shred.
For the Best ball and DFS bro’s…I think you’ll be able to get some splash plays from Falcons ancillary pieces this year. As pointed out by Hayden Winks, the Falcons used play action and threw downfield at the highest rate in the NFL last season. They made better in real life than fantasy additions of Mack Hollins and Scott Miller at Wide receiver. Hollins had 1200 air yards for the Raiders last season, while Miller’s 4.4 wheels give me timely shot play vibes. I expect the Falcons to still be very much run centered but between those aforementioned shot plays and games where game script doesn’t allow them to play keep away…we could see some occasional fireworks in the passing game…and an appearance in my DFS “sprinkle me” plays this season.
The Packers offensive approach this season has a wide range of outcomes. Was their slow pace an Aaron Rodgers thing? Does it remain in place to keep the training wheels on Jordan Love? Or does Matt LaFleur go back to his McVay tree roots and speed things up, stress testing Love before they have to make a long term QB decision (See Jalen Hurts/Eagles 2022).
The Packers were 22nd in 3 WR set usage last season per Hayden Winks…Does the addition of Jayden Reed represent a shift in the same way that we anticipate Jaxon Smith Njigba influencing the Seahawks approach? We’ll get the answers soon enough but there’s a chance that the ceilings of Green Bay’s offensive players are a little higher than we expect.
I just can’t get there with Rachaad White. He’s a volume play in a questionable offense with efficiency concerns of his own. Bucs beat writer, Jenna Laine recently wrote that free agent addition, Chase Edmonds is the 3rd down back in Tampa…nipping away at RB targets that won’t be nearly as plentiful sans Tom Brady. There’s also the possibility that they play slower this year as well. I never fade anyone but he’s not someone on my radar at cost.
Not that i’m banging the table for Michael Pittman at his adp, but I do think he’s being unfairly typecast as a curl route artist because his QB was Matt Ryan. Pittman came into the league as a downfield catchpoint winner and benefits just as much as Alec Pierce from the addition of cannon armed rookie QB, Anthony Richardson.
The Cardinals are such a difficult team to peg. I’m in on James Conner as a non dead zone RB target but I have some ceiling questions. We know ultimately volume is king and that’s the appeal here. As Rich Hribar pointed out, Conner was the RB5 from weeks 10-17 last year and only 2 of those came with Kyler Murray in the lineup but we’re treading into different, slow paced and less 4 WR spread waters that I think will be murkier. At the same time, We’re talking about a defense that was 27th in adjusted sack rate last season that has even less bite with the losses of JJ Watt, Zach Allen and Markus Golden. Couple that with a puny 4.5 win total and the negative game scripts and Colt McCoy check downs could ease my worrying.
Ravens 2023 Draft Class – Day 2 & 3 Film Clips
Carey’s 2023 Dynasty Fliers – TE
-Albert Okwuegbunam
Albert O was one of the most exciting breakout candidates coming into the 2022 season. That promise never came to fruition as the Broncos had a historically bad scoring offense and he eventually fell out of favor with the coaching staff.
While Greg Dulcich is the incumbent and is probably a more well-rounded player, can we say definitively that he’s a better player?
That’s a question for new head coach, Sean Payton…a coach who has an impressive history of tight-end production. Jimmy Graham is the obvious one, but Jeremy Shockey was on pace for 70 + catches in back-to-back years to start Payton’s New Orleans tenure. Ben Watson caught 74 balls in 2015, and Coby Fleener caught 54 balls that same season and followed up with 50 in 2016. Payton is notorious for taking a healthy amount of shots down the seam to TEs…I would imagine once we get to training camp and he sees a 6’5’’ dude running 4.49 that his reaction could be very similar to Jerry Rosburg’s when he took over as interim coach last season, why isn’t he playing more?
Albert O probably hit waivers in your league when dynasty managers got into roster pinches, and if he didn’t he could probably be had for roster fodder or a late pick. He’s a lottery ticket worth taking because the upside is even higher than it was last year.
-Foster Moreau
Coaches love a TE that can block like Kel loves orange soda, and that’s Moreau’s calling card. The 25-year-old UFA will have no shortage of suitors on the open market. Now it’s very possible that Moreau winds up in a situation like the one he’s played his entire career, a sub-package blocker with more limited pass-catching opportunities but there is a chance he finds a new home with more of a fantasy-friendly role.
While he is a classic Y tight end, Moreau doesn’t lack for athleticism. At the NFL combine he ran a 95th percentile 20-yard shuttle, had a 36 ½ inch vert, and ran a 4.66 forty. His 12 yards per catch average the last 2 seasons lends credence to the idea that he could be a legit producer if given more of a chance to do so.
The Dolphins, Texans, and Titans all come to mind as teams that could use an inline presence and if he’s playing a decisive number of the snaps he could sneak his way into the low-end TE1/TE2 borderline if the TDs break right.
If your dynasty roster is hurting at TE that could be appealing to you. If you’re stacked at the position, he offers you the opportunity to stash him and flip him for a late-round pick or another bench asset if he lands in a good spot in free agency and gets a couple of favorable off-season coach quotes.
-James Mitchell
The in-season trade of TJ Hockenson leaves the Lions with a hole at TE this off-season. One of only 2 holdovers currently on the roster, James Mitchell is an interesting prospect with a lot of natural ability. Because of the torn ACL, he suffered as a senior at Virginia Tech, we weren’t able to get athletic testing numbers during the draft process, but the tape shows an athletic player with some catch-point ability and open-field speed.
After the Hockenson trade, Mitchell’s playing time picked up, nothing substantial but that could have been by design considering the injury. With a healthy offseason to further adjust to NFL life, Mitchell could show himself worthy of a more defined role on offense. An offense in Detroit that we can now consider bankable.
Working against Mitchell is the fact that the Lions have 5 selections in the first 81 picks of this coming draft, a draft that is thought to be one of the most talented TE drafts in recent memory. It’s easy to see a scenario where he’s a relative fantasy afterthought by May, but if the Lions have decided they’d rather save money/draft capital at TE, Mitchell makes for an interesting deep league stash.
Carey’s 2023 Dynasty Fliers – QB
One of the major storylines of the 2023 NFL offseason is the QB carousel. Many teams are in various stages of “down badness”, a symptom of desperation that will push decision-makers to try to make a splash at the position at all costs.
There could be as many as 13 teams with new signal callers next season and probably 9 or 10 at minimum. So, let’s look at the supply…Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, and likely Aaron Rodgers (depending on what the darkness tells him) are the notable veterans that will be available. Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson are the projected 1st round rookie signal callers.
That’s 7, and we know that some teams will be hesitant to start rookie QBs so banking on all 4 QB prospects to be week 1 starters probably isn’t the best bet.
So, who’s going to start all these games? Let’s take a look at a few players who could be on your waiver wires or could be had on the cheap that could return some value.
-Gardner Minshew
Minshew has spent the last 2 seasons in Philly as a backup to Jalen Hurts. In 2021 he appeared in 4 games, starting 2, and had a QB rating of 104.8. In 2022 he appeared in 5 games, again starting 2 and with a more open Eagles passing game he managed to produce 7.74 net yards gained per pass attempt…a number that only Tua Tagovailoa eclipsed last season.
There’s also the potential for rushing production. In his longest stretch of games as a starter in 2019, he averaged 24 yards per game in 14 appearances (12 starts). Not gaudy numbers by any stretch but icing we’ll take on a bye week or injury fill-in cake.
Now don’t get it twisted, I’m not trying to convince you that Minshew is some uber-talented QB being deprived of an opportunity, but he has shown the ability to produce on at least a moderate level when given the opportunity, and opportunity may come knocking this offseason.
What do newly hired head coaches love to do most? If your answer is making fake explosive noises to describe their players, that’s a really good guess, but not quite.
The correct answer is, to hire people they used to work with…and in Minshew’s case, he’s got 2 potential ins with the Cardinals and Colts respectively hiring Eagles coordinators.
Jim Irsay’s loose lips seem to have telegraphed the drafting of a 1st round QB, making Minshew a potential bridge that knows the system…and with the Cardinals, Kyler Murray is slated to miss time at the beginning of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL, giving the Cards a need at the position as well.
Minshew could serve as a depth option for your dynasty roster or potentially fetch you a late-round pick for someone in a tight spot at the position that believes in Minshew-mania.
-Jacoby Brissett
Brissett had 37 starts under his belt coming into this past season but seemed to take a bit of a jump in play in his 11 starts for the Browns. He finished with the highest completion percentage, net yards per attempt, and QB rating of his career.
Now his progression didn’t reach Geno Smith levels, but he was poised, made good decisions, was accurate on the move, and supported a quality fantasy season for receiver Amari Cooper.
Brissett showed he can keep a ship on course and I would imagine he’ll have offers after the top veterans come off the board. He’s got history with Frank Reich from his time in Indy and could serve as a bridge to a young QB in Carolina. The Buccaneers are tight up against the salary cap and could use a cost-effective option in the short term. He also spent his rookie year with Josh McDaniels in New England, and while we expect the Raiders to aim higher…Aaron Rodgers can only Quarterback one team at a time.
Getting 11 starts out of Brissett like last year is probably too ambitious but unless he signs a high-end backup deal in a spot where the starter is locked in, I’d guess he makes some appearances.
-Tyler Huntley
It’s not too often that a pro bowl QB falls this far under the radar but here we are. In all seriousness though, Huntley has shown an ability to keep an offense on schedule. He’s a timing-based, short-area passer with good mobility and 4.56 wheels.
In an offense built around those attributes w/pass catching talent and scheme upgrades over what he had in Baltimore, I could certainly see someone talking themselves into it on a short-term basis.
If things go sideways in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson it could be there. I don’t anticipate this being the case but if Lamar is tagged and opts not to report early on, Huntley could be in line to start games early on. The Texans figure to draft a QB with their 1st pick but may want to bring in someone with experience early on who can execute over the middle of the field and limit mistakes ala Brock Purdy.
Huntley struggled a bit last season compared to the season prior, but I believe that was at least partly injury related. If someone dropped him after the season ended I think he’s worth a stash while we wait to see how the QB landscape shakes out.
Carey’s 2023 Dynasty Fliers – RB
-Kevin Harris
Pierre Strong gets the buzz of this Patriots backup RB group. He was drafted higher, ran a 4.37 40 at the combine, and was rumored to be thought of as a long-term James White replacement…but Now Stevenson ended up healthy enough to take the lion’s share of the work but the intention in that move stands.
A question for this team going forward will be whether the pure “James White role” is still a thing and how much of it has Rhamondre Stevenson already absorbed.
A role we should probably be more concerned with is the Damien Harris role. If he leaves in free agency, Kevin Harris is a far better fit as a between-the-tackle replacement. He’s a 221-pound, compact back with good vision, runs with power and finishes runs. He ran 4.56 at his pro day which isn’t blazing but it’s adequate, I think his play speed is maybe a tick faster. He can have a role of substance in 2023 and he’s probably free or near free right now.
-Jerome Ford
With Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson both slated to hit unrestricted free agency, Ford is the only other back besides Nick Chubb currently on the roster. Ford is a well-rounded RB back who runs with a bit more power than his leaner frame may suggest. The former Alabama transfer is also more than comfortable catching the football and a very willing pass protector, traits that will aid him in his quest for Kareem Hunt’s role in 2023.
The Browns will certainly add competition but Ford is said to have impressed in camp. With Nick Chubb exceeding 70% of snaps in a game just twice in the last 3 seasons, the path for playing time on some level is there.
-Eno Benjamin
Benjamin was a late-round pick in 2020 who despite his talent, struggled to get on the field until last year. He finally carved out a role with determined running and pass game comfort, averaging 5.1 yards per touch thru the 1st half of the season before his surprising release from the Arizona Cardinals.
He apparently had issues with his role when starter James Conner returned and that led to the Cardinals letting him go. He spent just 2 games as a member of the Texans before they decided to do the same and eventually closed out the year with the Saints.
Much like the case with Jerome Ford, Eno finds himself as the lone backup currently on the roster but his upside case is a bit more appealing with a potential suspension looming for Alvin Kamara.
Now considering Kamara’s potential legal troubles and rising cap number, I fully expect the Saints to draft an RB at some point but Benjamin certainly has an opportunity to carve out a role.
-Trey Sermon/Kennedy Brooks
With Miles Sanders and Boston Scott hitting free agency and a Jalen Hurts extension looming the Eagles could look at the RB position as a place to save money. Sermon is more physically imposing while Brooks is more detail driven but both are inexpensive fits to their inside zone running game.
For an analytic-driven like the Eagles, I think a pay-as-you-go approach at RB is more likely than a long-term extension for Miles Sanders. With Kenneth Gainwell entrenched on 3rd down, I would not be surprised to see one of these guys earn a secondary early down role.
Bonus tip:
The value of your late-round picks will get a bump this year. As opposed to last year, this RB draft class is deep and talented. There are also a few very large RB cap numbers that could lead to some changing of the guard in a few spots which give you some lottery ticket potential. I think you’ll be able to turn those later 2nd and 3rd round picks into worthwhile RB fliers so hold your picks and try to acquire more if you have the roster space.
Super Bowl DraftKings lineup
Captain: Dallas Goedert DraftKings salary: 9,600
Flex: Eagles D/ST DraftKings salary: 3,600
Flex: Kenneth Gainwell DraftKings salary: 5,000
Flex: Jalen Hurts DraftKings salary: 11,200
Flex: Travis Kelce DraftKings salary: 10,600
Flex: Miles Sanders DraftKings salary: 7,800
Reasoning: I see why people gravitate to 4-2 or 3-3 builds in showdown, it just feels a lot more comfortable. Honestly it also feels like I can paint the picture of what I’m trying to accomplish with my lineup a little clearer as well but clear and comfortable doesn’t get us to the top of leaderboards.
Dallas Goedert at captain is the first step at differentiating here. With the Chiefs overwhelming likely to push this Eagles offense into more drop backs then their last 2 opponents, I like Goedert’s chances of an 8 or so target game with a couple of those coming in the red zone. The matchup is a good one as this KC defense has allowed the 5th most TD receptions to TE’s. Their young combo of inside linebackers are high on thump and pursuit but have issues in coverage. With the Eagles offensive weapons giving you so much to account for, I think Goedert winds up being the necessary concession attention wise for the Chiefs defense.
With Goedert in the captain the obvious follow up is playing Jalen Hurts at flex. You could make the argument for contrarian sake to go Mahomes instead but with Hurts’ rushing upside and chances at a ceiling game with more resistance from the opposing offense…I think he’s the best play on the slate, regardless of price.
Stacking Eagles can be tricky because of how condensed the production is in non blowout games. I’m essentially treating Gainwell like a receiver at his mid tier price, hoping to get a handful of catches on 3rd down and maybe he can turn one of his say, 7-8 touches into a TD.
Miles Sanders has been a popular sneaky play this week amongst the fantasy community and it’s easy to see why. Each of the last 2 games have set up well for him in the 1st half, only for him not to be needed in the 2nd half. The gravity of Hurts legs combined with the lid lifting of AJ Brown and Devonta Smith as well as the likelihood that KC doesn’t crowd the box due to these factors, and Sanders is set up for rushing success once again.
The lack of Eagles value plays led me to their D/ST. Mahomes gets rid of the ball and avoids sacks with the best of them but we are still talking about a player dealing with a high ankle sprain, a team whose tackles have had pass protection issues at times with their tackles and a defense who had a whopping 70 sacks this season. It’s fair to expect they get home a couple times, fingers crossed for a sack fumble.
I know I’m going Eagles onslaught but I do see this as a competitive game. My hope is that with the Eagles strong outside corner play and pass rush that there isn’t time enough for big plays down the field and things get funneled inside the numbers to Kelce and Juju. Going away from Mahomes obviously means I need his TD passes to go to Kelce and probably not exceed 2, but if I can accomplish and Smith-Schuster can stay in his 5-50 and no TD wheelhouse I think we’ll be in good shape.
Ultimately this lineup has a contrarian captain, leaves 2,200 in salary, plays 2 Eagles RBs, doesn’t feature Mahomes nor either standpoint Eagles WR. I’d say the duplication should be minimal but features enough upside to do some damage. If you’d like to get a little less risky,…you could swap in Harrison Butker for the Eagles D/ST.
With the season coming to a close I’d like to send a special thanks to everyone that has continued to support my fantasy content over the years. I can’t tell you how much it means as I continue this journey to make my way in this industry. Be on the look out for off-season content coming real soon. The grind don’t stop.
Conference Championship DraftKings lineup
QB: Patrick Mahomes vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 7,600
RB: Christian McCaffrey at Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 8,000
RB: Jerick McKinnon vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 5,400
WR: Quez Watkins vs. San Francisco DraftKings salary: 3,100
WR: Ja’Marr Chase at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 7,600
WR: Tyler Boyd at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 3,800
TE: Travis Kelce vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 7,800
Flex: Marquez Valdez-Scantling DraftKings salary: 3,600
DST: Eagles Def vs. San Francisco DraftKings salary: 2,800
Reasoning: Full this disclosure here, this started out as a Jalen Hurts lineup. Had it all punched in, I liked it, but a phrase just kept popping up in my mind…
Scared money don’t make none…and while I believe Hurts and Burrow are the guys you should be playing mostly this week I couldn’t in good conscience try to get you to the biggest of bags and not at least try to put together the rare underdog Mahomes lineup.
So what’s the approach? Obviously Travis Kelce is a must play but how else do we get there? Jerick McKinnon is the other kinda obvious stacking partner even though he’s a running back. He had his first zero target game of the season last week, something I highly doubt we see a repeat of. At his price even if it’s just catches and TD potential, I think it’s a strong play.
I’m not done yet though, I need another differentiator but figuring out these Kansas City WR’s is like playing ABACADABA on one of them old scantron tests (yes, I’m old).
It seems like the stance the field will somewhat take is playing Ka’Darius Toney and while he’s at a good price and has insane talent, I think people are playing him more so anticipating a hobbled Mahomes that will be getting the ball out quick. Hobbled Mahomes doesn’t get us to the money. So right off top I’m going to shift by playing MVS for much of the same reasons I played him last week. Routes run and air yards. He only had 33 air yards last week but that was with Mahomes missing time and then coming back hobbled. He had over 100 in each of the 2 games prior to that.
Now let’s not get it twisted, it’s a thin and risky play but it comes with being in the Mahomes business. For him to hit his ceiling we’re gonna see some random TDs, hopefully MVS is on the receiving end of one, preferably from 50+ yards out.
Went with one obvious and one not quite as obvious run back. Ja’Marr Chase is so thoroughly locked into volume on a weekly basis. Even if we are just talking schemed touches and hitches because the defense is terrified of him going over the top…he’s going to find his way to an ideal floor and we know what his ceiling looks like if he gets loose. Tyler Boyd is a great play at his price that I’m surprised isn’t getting more buzz. He’s got a good matchup, will run routes on 80+ percent of passing plays and benefits from the 2 high looks that Chase and Higgins necessitate.
Ended up with a small CMC-Quez stack to round things out on the position player side. There’s nothing i can tel you on CMC you don’t already know. At 8K he feels like an auto play. While Jordan Davis and all the beef that resides on the Philly front line will make things difficult for him we are still talking about an Uber talented runner in a Shanahan run game who also splits out and is targeted like a receiver. Quez Watkins is another dart that carries upside. In the 4 games that Jalen Hurts has thrown over 300 yards this season, Watkins averages 9.9 DraftKings points per game. Because of the stout nature of the 49ers run defense I expect Hurts to throw early and often and Quez’s field stretching profile matches the “weakness” of the San Francisco defense. At 3100 he’s the premier punt on the slate.
On defense I started to go with 49ers. Usually If I’m fading a popular QB like I am with Hurts here, I try to get aggressive in my lineups in telling the story that the player won’t do well. That’s a lot tougher to do on a 2 game slate. I’m already zigging with this Mahomes triple stack, too much Hurts disrespect may be putting too much dip on my chip. The Eagles defense get a rookie QB whose played extremely well but also showed a capped ceiling last week versus a defense not as talented as this one.
Divisional Round DraftKings lineup
QB: Brock Purdy vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 5,400
RB: Christian McCaffery vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 8,000
RB: Tony Pollard at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 6,100
WR: AJ Brown vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 7,600
WR: Marquez Valdez-Scantling vs. Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 3,800
WR: CeeDee Lamb at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 7,300
TE: Evan Engram at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 4,300
Flex: Brandon Aiyuk vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 5,000
DST: Bengals Def at Buffalo DraftKings salary: 2,400
Reasoning: I wanted to find a game to invest heavily in and it became clearer over time that Dallas-San Francisco was that game. Kyle Shanahan has this offense rolling in a way that outside of a heavy turnover game I find it difficult to find scenario in which they don’t score a good amount and in turn push Dallas into a higher volume of pass attempts, something we’ve wanted to see from Dak all year.
Both QBs project well for me and there are condensed weapons on both sides but Purdy’s price and stacking partners allow me to accomplish a bit more. Going with the QB-RB stack and Aiyuk over Deebo/Kittle I think will set us up to be different and have a combo that acts as double leverage on Debo’s rushing and receiving upside.
CeeDee Lamb is an obvious run back as a locked in, inside/outside threat but I needed another piece. Dalton Schultz is where everyone would go so to pivot I went with Tony Pollard. The matchup is a difficult one but if I’m projecting this offensive environment to be as fruitful as I think it can be I like him as a lower rostered RB2 to pair with the popular CMC. Even versus a stout front 7 i think the ultra efficient Pollard can create a couple big gains, a few catches and get into the end zone. This slate lacks another obvious RB play so why not invest in my primary stack?
Went with AJ Brown as a one off play on a slate where I wanted to invest in WR. Of the Diggs, Chase, AJB category I think he has the highest ceiling outcome considering the matchups.
My 2nd favorite game on the slate is KC/Jax so I like getting in the secondary slate I did. I’d prefer to correlate tight end with my QB/primary stack but it didn’t work out in this case so I went with the player I feel like is probably the best value at the position on this slate in Evan Engram. His price isn’t inflated, he’s super involved, odds favor a negative game script and his slot/underneath usage meshes with where KC gives up production. My run back isn’t for the faint of heart and if I’m keeping it a buck, I ain’t crazy about it either but hey, we can’t feel great about every piece of a successful GPP lineup. MVS’s boundary matchup isn’t good but he should play 60% of snaps, has 100 plus air yards in each of the last 2 games and at a mere 3,800 salary he could get me where I need to go in one play. For those 3 max or just more risk adverse players, Richie James fits into this lineup salary as a replacement and makes sense as a AJ Brown run back.
As the slates have gotten smaller I’ve ventured even further from the popular defenses. I also try to aggressively attack the situations I’m fading. It’s weird to say the Bills are off because they’ve essentially averaged 30 points per game since the middle of November but I don’t feel like this is a team clicking on on cylinders. Their run game isn’t created big plays and outside of Diggs they’ve gotten very uneven performance from their ancillary pieces.
In comes this Bengals unit whose perennially underrated DC Lou Anarumo does a great job mixing pass coverages and pressures. The Bills falling below expectations and turning over the ball a time or 2 would not be a surprise.
Week 17 DraftKings lineup
QB: Justin Fields at Detroit DraftKings salary: 7,900
RB: Jamaal Williams vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 5,000
RB: Tyler Allgeier vs. Arizona DraftKings salary: 5,300
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 7,800
WR: Garrett Wilson at Seattle DraftKings salary: 5,500
WR: Equanimeous St. Brown at Detroit DraftKings salary: 3,600
TE: Jelani Woods at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 2,800
FLEX: Saquon Barkley vs. Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 8,000
DST: Chiefs Def vs. Denver DraftKings salary: 3,800
Reasoning: Like Woj trying to leak NBA Draft picks without using the word draft…I’m lasered focused on this Bears-Lions game. Trying to figure out how to play it differently without losing my damn mind proved to be a challenge but here we are. I tried to be super aggressive in my differentiation by playing both Amon Ra and Jamaal Williams together. Many will play ASB and the people that are strange gluttons for punishment will play Jamaal as a contrarian one off but playing both and trying to soak up the Lion share (hehe) of the receiving and rushing production should set us apart. The other piece of this is who to stack Fields with…the obvious answer is Cole Kmet but obvious answers lead to duplication.
Equanimeous St. Brown is a super risky play but there’s a pathway that could make it less so by kick off. ESB practiced in full on coming off a concussion he suffered in week 15. Chase Claypool and Dante Pettis are both questionable to play after practicing on a limited basis on Friday. IF both miss, we’re looking at probably a near every snap workload for St. Brown at a super cheap price point in the best game environment of the slate. IF both play the odds obviously suffer but in week 13 when all 3 played he ran 68% of routes compared to 72% for Claypool and 76% for Pettis. I’m not trying to convince anybody that the play isn’t thin but I’m shooting for fireworks, ESB’s 86 air yards in that week 13 game is the most by a Bears WR since. Let the Hail Mary’s commence!
Decided to go the 3 RB route again with 2 of my favorite plays on the slate. Tyler Allgeier’s role is growing at the perfect time to be a home favorite in a great matchup. The Falcons should have no issue playing keep away on offense versus a David Blough led Cardinals offense. Same could be said for Saquon Barkley facing the Nick Foles led Colts. Barkley should get every carry he can handle and has 18 targets in the last 2 games.
Went to one of my favorite skinny stacks by plugging Jelani Woods in at TE. I know I kind of disparaged Foles not 3 sentences ago but he’s been fond of the TE. That reputation continued last week as Woods had 5 targets and 34% of the Colts air yards. With Kylen Granson out again this week I expect the freakish Woods to at least match his 69% route rate in a much better matchup vs. the Giants (6th most DK points per game).
On defense this week I’m feeling a few pay ups. With the financial freedom here I decided to splurge with the Chiefs. The Broncos have a historically bad scoring offense, just fired their coach and their offensive line has the 2nd worst adjusted sack rate in the NFL per Football Outsiders. With the Kansas City offense likely to force a negative script, the opportunities for sacks and picks should be plentiful.
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