| Tier 1-Elite WR1 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | If you think of something let me know | As scary as it is, he still has room to improve in the TD department based on his usage. |
| WR2 | Ja’Marr Chase | Does Joe Burrow start slow or is limited in any way? | Chase won with splash plays in year 1 and scared the daylights out of the league. In year 2 he won with volume, schemed touches, etc. He’s unavoidable. |
| WR3 | Cooper Kupp | Coming off injury and entering his age 30 season. | Look at the weapons around him and the defensive depth chart and tell me what will keep him from getting ALL the targets. Has a goat season on his mantle and was on pace for another last season pre injury. |
| Tier 2-High End WR1 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR4 | Tyreek Hill | The Dolphins post bye offense last year combined with the thought that they’ll run the ball a lot more this year and their defense got a true difference making play caller in Vic Fangio leave me a little concerned. | Tyreek left Patrick Mahomes and set career highs in receptions and yards..a true game changing talent that can take my concerns and make them confetti. |
| WR5 | Stefon Diggs | Inching towards 30 years old now does he start to lose percentage points off his athleticism? | His combination of talent, unwavering opportunity and red zone/green zone usage places him here for me in a really tight group. Just feel like he’s overdue for a big TD season but you can stack these guys however you see fit. |
| WR6 | AJ Brown | In sheer numbers the Eagles defense loss more than they gained but got maybe the best defensive player in the draft in Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith looked like a superhero in preseason. I say all that to say the Eagles may clobber people again this season and make their 4th quarters boring…challenging AJB’s target season. | Speaking of super heroes..If the Eagles tougher schedule pushes them into shootouts and closer games in the 4th quarter, I could see AJB putting up a WR1 overall type of season. |
| WR7 | Davante Adams | The vibes didn’t seem to be vibing for Davante after the Derek Carr release. Color me skeptical that Adams will be able to repeat the chunk downfield plays with Jimmy G at the controls. | If Davante says it doesn’t matter whose throwing him the ball I should probably just believe him. |
| WR8 | CeeDee Lamb | Even if you’re optimistic about the Cowboys not going full on ground and pound I don’t think there is any doubt they’ll play slower. I think his bottom line will inherently get nipped at, just the question is how much? | Lamb’s talent, heavy slot usage and continuity with Dak make him a super strong 2nd round pick but if the pass rate doesn’t really decrease there could be some upside there too. |
| WR9 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Compiling without enough chunk plays or TDs to give us 2nd round upside. Could the Lions complete secondary makeover spell less shootouts? | Shoutout to John Daigle for this great stat…St. Brown was tackled inside the 5 yard line 7 times last season. So not only does he have room to score more TDs, he’s probably got less target competition than last year. |
| Tier 3-Rest of WR1 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR10 | Garrett Wilson | Offensive Coordinator Aaron Rodgers will likely bring in a methodical offense along with a couple of his home boys at receiver that he’s already built a rapport with that could pop up in high leverage situations. Wilson’s adp also isn’t giving us a discount. These aren’t huge deals but we need every factor we can get to ensure upside at this price. | Wilson was so good last season that his splits with Mike White would make you think he was already playing with Aaron Rodgers. Now he gets the real thing. Their growing chemistry was on display during their last preseason game and makes Wilson the next potential superstar WR. |
| WR11 | Jaylen Waddle | See Tyreek Hill’s | The target tree should remain low on branches and Waddle has shown he can win as an underneath compiler or a deep threat. A true game breaking talent with the ability to score from anywhere on the field..don’t let the presence of Tyreek Hill give you pause. |
| WR12 | Devonta Smith | See AJ Brown’s | Devonta is a stud in his own right who went neck and neck with AJB statistically. And for the same reason’s as stated above Devonta could top last years terrific season. |
| Tier 4-High End WR2 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR13 | Calvin Ridley | He’s had a lengthy absence from football and joined a very functional offense with multiple pieces. | Ridley was an alpha in Atlanta and sure as hell still looks like one in preseason. In an offense that was 4th in WR fantasy usage last year per Hayden Winks and may even throw more last year, sign me up to take that…bet (I couldn’t help it). |
| WR14 | DK Metcalf | JSN looks the part as a offensive staple and continues to play well and has consistently had better success rates than DK. It’s fair to question whether he has the target ceiling to payoff where he goes in drafts. | He’ll likely lose a bit of volume but if majority of JSN’s comes from the Seahawks as he’ll be replacing them on the field, it shouldn’t be a big deal. What is a big deal is DK Metcalf’s 40% redzone target share. If he can turn a few more of those into TDs and add a few splash plays we could see a career year from him. |
| WR15 | Chris Olave | It’s a slow offense that didn’t throw much last year and he should face more target competition this year. I can’t knock anyone who has concerns. | I get people’s concerns…I just won’t be partaking in them. Olave was a pretty bulletproof prospect coming in and despite a non threatening offensive environment and QB, he put up a 1,000 yard season. What if he’s just really good, like outlier good? While the 2nd round may be a little too strong for my tastes, I’m taking that shot every time in the 3rd. |
| WR16 | Deebo Samuel | Because the run game and defense is so good and they don’t play fast it’s just tough to imagine Deebo having the target ceiling that some of the other players in this range has. | The good news though is he’s established himself as the #1 target for Brock Purdy while also adding value as a rushing even after the CMC addition. |
| WR17 | Tee Higgins | The gap in opportunity between him and Chase became more pronounced last season and for the catch point maestro he is, Tyler Boyd had more red zone targets and Higgins had a whooping 4 targets inside the 10. I’m honestly tempted to put Higgins lower | The offensive remain one of the premier ones in the league. There’s also optimism that this offensive line takes another step on pass pro which could open up a few more opportunities for chunk plays downfield. |
| Tier 5-Mid to Low End WR2 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR18 | Amari Cooper | Cooper’s adp won’t allow for valley’s in Watson’s play to return true upside. There’s also the defense, now led by Jim Schwartz with upgrades at every level. | The Browns have a desire to play faster, more spread out and pass more. A leap from the bottom 3rd in neutral pass rate and pace will give Cooper one of the best target ceilings in the league as he already had 132 under last seasons conditions. |
| WR19 | Christian Watson | The Packers decide to keep a slow approach sans Arod and focus on running the ball. Love proves to inconsistent to support a fantasy breakout. | I’m happy to be a bit more bullish on Watson then most. The Packers have incentive to cut things loose with Jordan Love and their coaching roots favor high end pace. While the Packers have talented young weapons, none of them figure to stand in the way of a high volume season for Watson and at 6’4” with 4.3 wheels and bit more polish than you think, a break thru year is on the table. |
| WR20 | Mike Williams | The Chargers added a 1st round WR, one that gives them the yac juice that they lack. Could Big Mike get locked into a clear out role running mostly low percentage routes? | Quentin Johnston didn’t seem to take off in preseason and seems likely to open the season in a timeshare with Josh Palmer. There is also talk that Williams will get more slot work, which would be great for his floor and we know what his catch point prowess mixed with Herbert’s arm does for his ceiling. Williams has become one of my favorite picks this year. |
| WR21 | Keenan Allen | Father time…also, if Mike Williams truly does get more slot work, Keenan will be in less advantageous situations during those snaps. A 1st round receiver will also be in the mix. | The OC change won’t effect the speed and pass heaviness we’re used to…in fact they may even be a beat faster. Regardless of the concerns that come with Allen, the volume will be there playing the CeeDee Lamb role in Kellen Moore’s offense..and his yards per route run did tick back up last season. |
| WR22 | DJ Moore | Volume | Moore has the type of game breaking talent and versatility to do more with less. The Bears took a offensive tackle in the top 10 and there is optimism for an improved line and Justin Fields show growth in his efficiency as a passer in the 2nd half of last season. |
| WR23 | Drake London | VOLUME | Similarly to my feelings on Chris Olave, London is a guy I’m going to turn the sliders down a little bit on his concerns because I want to be on the caliber of the player. There’s optimism that the Falcons will throw more with Ridder under center, as Denny Carter has pointed out that will happen inherently with less designed runs and scrambles than under Mariota. |
| WR24 | Diontae Johnson | MATT CANADA…also, is George Pickens ready to assert himself as more than a difficult catch artist? | Maybe I’m being a lil too hard on ole Matt. The Steelers first team offense has looked great in preseason in a small sample. If Diontae Johnson just retains his role in the offense he’ll score more TDs even if he wasn’t trying…but if the offense actually improves as well he could put together a season more in line with 2021. |
| WR25 | Tyler Lockett | Another team with a 1st round WR added to the mix. JSN figures to mostly man the slot but it does seem like there was some cross training going on later in the preseason with him taking some snaps outside. Was that for Lockett to bump inside or for JSN to get some outside snaps in 2 TE sets? Lockett has also reached the dreaded 30 year old threshold as well. | Carroll showed he had a new lease on life last season with this Seahawks pass rate (Brian Schottenheimer somewhere rolling his eyes). That has seemingly carried over to the preseason with the offense playing at a faster pace. Hell, even Carroll is playing faster as evidence by his quarterbacking session in training camp. Lockett is an integral part of a pass offense many sharp people are betting on taking things up another notch. |
| Tier 6-High End WR3 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR26 | Michael Pittman | He has a inexperienced rookie signal caller and the offense just lost their top player, calling into question the efficiency of the offense. | Pittman has been sort of typecast as this curl route artist but he came into the league as a downfield catch point winner who had the ability to win short and intermediate. Anthony Richardson’s arm opens up more ceiling for Pittman and his standing in the offense, especially with the loss of Jonathan Taylor early on, may make his floor stronger than you think. |
| WR27 | Terry McLaurin | Coming into the season with an injury and an ascending Jahan Dotson. The offensive line is also a question mark. | Sam Howell’s mobility and aggressive mentality gives Terry a chance to fully unlock his downfield ability. Injury concerns could slide him into draft day value range. |
| WR28 | Jerry Jeudy | He was not placed on IR but there were whispers that he could miss the first month of the season or more. How long will it take to get him up to speed and how good of an offense is he actually walking back into? | Wildly similar to McLaurin. |
| WR29 | Deandre Hopkins | The offense will revolve around Henry until Henry is no longer a Titan and the offensive line is universally thought to be the worst in football. We’re also talking about a 31 year old receiver. | Target tree should be pretty condensed and Hopkins will be right at the head of it. Still a talented target earner despite the step back athletically…if anybody can craft their way to another fantasy relevant season, it’s Dhop. |
| WR30 | Hollywood Brown | Bad offense, early QB play will be an adventure. | Hollywood earned targets at a crazy rate to start last season with Deandre Hopkins out. With negative game scripts undoubtedly on the way, we could see a repeat. |
| WR31 | Chris Godwin | Questionable QB play, slower pace, I struggle with what to do with these Bucs WRs because they’re so talented but nothing about what’s going on with them give me warm and fuzzy feelings. | Volume should still be there as an underneath target and enough negative game scripts should bare some fruit. |
| WR32 | Mike Evans | See above | A supremely talented and somehow still underrated player..if whoever’s at QB just gives him opportunities downfield I’m not going to bet against him making some plays. |
| Tier 7-Mid to Low End WR3 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR33 | Christian Kirk | Ridley looks poised to take on alpha status in the Jaguars offense. If Kirk is still running behind Zay Jones in the regular season it’s not a huge deal but it probably nips at his target season. | The Jaguars are a super fantasy friendly offense that could continue their upward trending pass rate even higher. |
| WR34 | Brandon Aiyuk | Their defense doesn’t drop off much and we know the run game won’t. | At this point I’ve turned into a bit of a 49ers defense hater…I just want to see what a few shootouts would look like for them. Aiyuk as the established #2 would give us legit blow up games with his deep threat and yac prowess. |
| WR35 | Brandin Cooks | Slow pace and more runs spells bad news for non CeeDee Lamb receivers. | Entering year 9 and Cooks can still run by people. If the only negative is a slow pace it’s plenty of room for Cooks to beat his adp. |
| WR36 | George Pickens | He continues to be typecast by his coordinator and limited to low percentage downfield looks. | His preseason TD on a in breaking route was music to everyone’s ears. If Canada is making this more of a priority, the ceiling for Pickens put him on the shortlist of receivers towards the middle rounds of drafts that can change the trajectory of teams. |
| WR37 | Treylon Burks | The volume won’t be plentiful to began with and Hopkins will take a pretty big slice off the top. | Burks’ progression as a player was pretty impressive. He showed some real alpha traits and I don’t think he’ll just fall into the shadows behind Dhop as a 2. I think he’ll be a true 1B, maybe even a 1A who can win downfield and on schemed touches. He’s another young WR bet i want to make. |
| WR38 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | How long does the wrist injury limit him if at all? Are the multi TE sets still a thing. | JSN is a ready made player who compliments this group perfectly and offers the offense just what they needed as a chain mover. One of the young receivers in this year’s fantasy landscape that if you project some ambition with you can be handsomely rewarded. |
| WR39 | Jordan Addison | He will walk into Adam Thielen’s massive playing time role at some point…the longer it takes for him to do it the less value he brings to fantasy benches. | Thielen ran the 3rd most routes among all WRs last year. Addison’s every week opportunity running opposite of all world receiver Justin Jefferson is as good as we could have asked for. |
| WR40 | Jahan Dotson | McLaurin looks like himself early and with Brandon Thorn’s 31st ranked OL, Howell doesn’t have much time to scan the field for secondary options. | I’ve been hearing some Dotson overtakes McLaurin takes lately and I don’t think it’s farfetched..and that’s not a shot at Terry, that’s a big up to Dotson’s talent. |
| WR41 | Gabriel Davis | Not a true target earning talent..he floats in and out of relevance depending on how many deep targets he gets on that particular week. If they are truly serious about upping James Cook’s passing game involvement and Kincaid is given the opportunity to put his stamp on the offense, Davis could become more of a bit player. | He’s going in a range in drafts that makes the potential pay off worth it. He’s still in one of the best offenses in the NFL and the one major addition to the passing game in Dalton Kincaid doesn’t figure to be a every down player to start the year. |
| WR42 | Rashod Bateman | Injury and target competition. | It’s been a little bit but Lamar Jackson making it a point to call Bateman the Ravens WR1 still sticks out to me. While he’s in a suddenly talented group, OBJ could have his snaps monitored and Zay Flowers could lose snaps in 2 WR sets. I do feel this could end up being a closer to even split between the 3 but i think Bateman has the most playing time upside of the group so i wanted to represent that in the ranks. |
| Tier 8-WR4 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR43 | Michael Thomas | Injury is the obvious one but what type of player is he at this point? I don’t want to pay for what he was. | If he’s still a target commanding presence he’s a bargain where he’s going. |
| WR44 | Courtland Sutton | Denver is a boring run first offense that we don’t want pieces of. | He’s gone from potential trade candidate to week 1 priority. Said to look healthier this offseason, talent has never been the issue. If Sean Payton can bring some order and organization to this offense, Sutton offers value where he goes. |
| WR45 | Zay Flowers | How much does he play early in 2 WR sets? With so many threats now can he carve out a big enough share to be trusted weekly? | Size and experience work against him but literally every time we’ve seen him this offseason he’s been giving DB’s fits. His teammates and media members continue to rave about him as well. Maybe we all should just ride the wave? |
| WR46 | Juju Smith-Schuster | The offense will without question take a leap but is it to a point where it matters for fantasy? | It’s not fun but it’s potentially effective. Juju should be a priority underneath target for a team that has a history of churning out slot production. |
| WR47 | Jakobi Meyers | He’s the solidified #2 but it’s not like last year’s group left behind red zone roles of significance. Adams should continue to dominate there. | The volume should be there as the #2 pass game weapon. Much like the player replacing him in New England, it’s not sexy but points are points. |
| WR48 | Odell Beckham Jr. | There are plenty of mouths to feed and I highly doubt he plays heavy snaps early…or maybe at all? | Even if he’s 70-80% of what he was at his athletic peak…a player with his level of savvy and ball skills I’ll continue to bet on. I also wouldn’t rule him turning back the clock a few times this year. |
| WR49 | Elijah Moore | The Browns pass more but not quite enough to support ceiling outcomes for a 3rd weapon behind Cooper and Njoku. | The primary slot in a spread offense with schemed touch opportunities to boot. I can get with that. |
| WR50 | Kadarius Toney | Injury and potential playing time limitations. | Lost in peoples criticisms of Toney’s iffy snap counts last year is the fact that he was still learning a new offense. He may very well have his snaps managed again this year for injury reasons but there is always the chance that the talk after the trade of his ability to be standout player for them was legitimate and they give him every chance to do just that. The adp makes it easier to take that lottery ticket. |
| WR52 | Quentin Johnston | The likely early season platoon between him and Josh Palmer lingers later into the season. | Johnston gives this team a much needed yac threat and they make it point to get him touches in space as well as downfield. The sooner he can become the primary WR3 the sooner the ceiling of their offense changes. |
| WR53 | Marvin Mims | Jeudy returns and looks like himself, Sutton has a resurgence and Mims becomes more of a clear out guy, dependent on big plays | Mims’ game fits Russell Wilson’s game the best of their top 3 receivers. An explosive threat who the Broncos traded up for has the runway now to play heavy snaps from the outset of the season. Another young WR to bet on the upside of. |
| Tier 9-WR5 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR54 | Skyy Moore | The Chiefs GM has already said Rashee Rice and Justyn Ross will mix in. Would anybody else be surprised if Justin Watson or Richie James does too? My approach to this Chiefs WR group is to only bet on the potentially outlier talents of Toney or Ross. | Moore is the odds on favorite to be 2nd in snaps for a Mahomes led team. That’s always a favorable place to be. |
| WR55 | Nico Collins | Run first, slowish offense with a legit standout defensive play caller at the controls | The clear WR1 in Houston, Collins has seemed to build an early chemistry with Stroud. |
| WR56 | Zay Jones | He gets pushed to far down the target pecking order to bring upside. | His standing over Christian Kirk in 2 WR sets is not just a preseason deal and his red zone target share hovers around last seasons 23% mark. |
| WR57 | Alec Pierce | If you’re concerned with Richardson supporting Pittman you damn sure should be concerned with him Pierce. | 6’3” with 4.4 wheels with a QB that could throw it to Kentucky. |
| WR58 | Jonathan Mingo | He’s not involved enough early on to justify a roster spot and you have to cut him. | They recognize their lack difference makers early on and lean on Mingo early. My Dynasty teams would be incredibly pleased. |
| WR59 | Van Jefferson | Kupp and Higbee dominate targets and the offense just isn’t good enough to support a 3rd. | If their pace trends back in the fast direction and the shootouts flow like I expect, Van could be the cheapest source of targets out there. |
| WR60 | Adam Thielen | The decline becomes even more pronounced. | Seems to be gaining some sleep buzz late as a volume based play. |
| WR61 | Allen Lazard | When signed the major selling point I kept hearing first is the Jets love his blocking. Not what we want to her in fantasy. | Lazard should have all the playing time he can handle and has an obvious rapport and the support of OC Aaron Rodgers. |
| WR62 | Darnell Mooney | VOLUME | Mooney is a talent player in an offense that will try to take another step in the passing game. DJ Moore should occupy the other teams top corner and the defenses attention. |
| WR63 | Rondale Moore | Chance he’s views as a slot only player in what could be the worst offense in the league. | Should be lots of negative game scripts and check down opportunities. |
| WR64 | Isaiah Hodgins | Lots of options at the position, a couple that they are more financially invested in. | The lone size in the WR room, Hodgins figures to take the lion share of the snaps at the X. If Daniel Jones takes another step, Hodgins could return value on the cheap. |
| WR65 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | With Elijah Moore on board along with his theoretical 2024 replacement in Cedric Tillman…the Browns suddenly have options. | Last year’s semi breakout was just a sign of things to come. In an offense motivated to throw more and play faster, DPJ pushes over 1,000 yards in a contract year. |
| WR66 | Romeo Doubs | The variance of what this Packers offense could be falls more to the run heavy side. Jayden Reed cuts into 2 WR set work. | Variance flips the other way and Doubs is a heavy snap player in a target open offense. |
| WR67 | Tyler Boyd | Just not enough volume or big play ability to offer upside. | An injury to Chase or Higgins would put him in near flex territory weekly. |
| Tier 10-WR6 | Risk | Reward | |
| WR68 | DeVante Parker | Potentially a short to intermediate passing game focus which could leave Parker on the outside looking in | Parker can still win at the catch point and doesn’t have an alpha threat to contend with. |
| WR69 | DJ Chark | If the slow pace and pass protection concerns of the preseason extend into the regular season you have to dock any downfield weapon. | Missing a true target hog…Chark has a legit opportunity in a downfield role. |
| WR70 | Michael Gallup | Last year is his new norm. | A year further removed from injury, he returns to his downfield, catch point winning ways. |
| WR71 | Jayden Reed | Currently the 3rd WR in Green Bay, how much 11 personnel will we see? They were 22nd in 3 WR usage last season per Hayden Winks. | Liberated from Aaron Rodgers, LaFleur goes back to his fast paced, base 3 WR routes and Reed is a high snap player. He could easily push for the 2nd most targets in the offense. |
| WR72 | Darius Slayton | He had a bounce back 2nd half of last season and resigned but he’s fallen out of favor before. | There is room for targets outside of Darren Waller. The current starter at the Z, he’s never lacked for talent. |
| WR73 | Rashid Shaheed | With Michael Thomas back and Juwan Johnson a low key breakout candidate..how much will be left? | An efficient and explosive deep threat. Could the Saints ramp up their attack with Derek Carr in the fold? |
| WR74 | Robert Woods | How much does he have left? Will this offense be good enough to even be worth it? | He signed a contract that should make him a priority. He’s been productive in this scheme before. |
| WR75 | Parris Campbell | 1 of 1,000 slot options. | The current starter in the slot is also getting backfield reps. 4 years late but we may finally get that Parris Campbell breakout. |
| WR76 | Curtis Samuel | With McLaurin and an ascending Dotson, is their room for Samuel barring an injury? | Bienemy values him in the screen/scheme touch game and they throw a bit more than we expect. |
| WR77 | Jalin Hyatt | He starts the year as a subpackage player and ends it that way. | In a group that lacks an alpha he eventually overtakes Slayton or [insert slot receiver here]. There’s plenty of room for targets to be earned here behind Darren Waller. |
| WR78 | Marquez Valdez-Scantling | Plays a clear out where he continues to get all the snaps but you have no clue when you can play him. | In year 2 with Mahomes they get in sync with the deep ball. |
| WR79 | Tank Dell | ||
| WR80 | Hunter Renfrow | Josh McDaniels still doesn’t know he plays for the Raiders. | He gets traded to a WR needy team. |
| WR81 | Michael Wilson | Bad QB play, poor offense, and absolute ceiling scenario probably is 3rd on the target pecking order. | The Cardinals made it a point to get Wilson plenty of playing time early in the preseason, presumably with an eye towards the starting X WR role for a team starved for size. It could be tough sledding for the team as a whole but Wilson is talent to monitor. |
| WR82 | Jameson Williams | Roster clog that lost too much important developmental time to be counted on for much of the fantasy season. | His speed and opportunity is still so tantalizing. |
Carey’s 2023 Fantasy RB Tiers
| Tier 1-Elite RB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB1 | Christian McCaffrey | While still at the top of his position, we are talking about peak CMC. Entering his age 27 season isn’t a doomsday scenario but father time is a sneaky as he is ruthless. | If his post trade usage was a tad more voluminous we’d maybe be talking about him as the consensus 1.01 but his usage was still very good. Is there a chance it increases in more competitive games or will they remain mindful of his workload? There’s a sneaky bit of upside in that question but even if we don’t get the boost there he’s in an offense beautifully suited to his all purpose talent. |
| RB2 | Austin Ekeler | See above…but there’s also the thought that his passing game volume takes a hit if the offense becomes more vertically focused. | Despite having a new coordinator the pace figures to remain fast and while there should be fewer checkdowns, the environment should be even better and the only significant add doesn’t figure to be a target hog or even a full time player to start off (Quentin Johnston). There also doesn’t seem to be a backup RB distinguishing themselves enough to get any more than breather duties. |
| RB3 | Saquon Barkley | Harder schedule and likely less pass game volume. | While he figures to have less targets it’s not like they’ve added multiple target hogs. For what he’s loses in pass game volume he could make back some in a stronger offensive environment with multiple lid lifters to lighten his load in the box. The also didn’t add a player truly worthy of meaningful 2023 touches behind him. |
| RB4 | Nick Chubb | ADP has risen from priority 2nd round pick to backend of the 1st round…thinning out our margin for error. He’s always an incredibly efficient runner but now that passing game usage needs to go from a SHOULD be better to NEEDS to be better in order for him to give you upside. | Bludgeon teams from 11 personnel last year and sounds like he’s going to get a lot more opportunities to do that this year. Many have conservatively projected him for 30 catches this season but with a faster, more spread offense and no Kareem Hunt..what if that number is more like 50? |
| RB5 | Tony Pollard | Pollard is making a similar creep up in adp. We’ve dodged a significant secondary add to this backfield but it’s yet to be seen if the Cowboys will give him true feature back usage. He’ll be productive regardless, he’s just that good but again, it’s an opportunity cost thing. | Pollard is on the shortlist for highest ceilings in fantasy. Zeke was 13th among RB’s in red zone touches last season. At this point is it fair to assume that Pollard scoops up 40 to 50% of that? We could be looking at a truly historic fantasy season. |
| Tier 2-High End RB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB6 | Bijan Robinson | This weapon talk turns into run of the mill pass game usage. Allegier gets more than + breather back status and CPatt mixes in as well. All fine developments if he were going at the 2/3 turn. | In Arthur Smith run scheme behind one of the best Olines in the NFL, Bijan’s floor is incredibly sturdy. Now if his touch share is decisive and some of the split out action we’ve seen in training camp comes to fruition we’re talking top 3 upside. |
| RB7 | Josh Jacobs | The step from Carr to Jimmy G proves to be steep. Steep enough to shift their EPA into the direction of a subpar TD season for Jacobs. | Now that Jacobs is under the contract the reward will lessen. Maybe the fact that we won’t see him on the field before the season kind of splits the difference from an adp standpoint. Even with a late boost he’ll probably still go close to a round lower than he should in a game where we want to beat adp as many times as possible. |
| RB8 | Derrick Henry | Offensive line concerns are always something I’ve glossed over before with Henry. If they run outside zone 25 times and 22 of those attempts net 1 to 3 yards each..as long as the other 2 are signature Henry long TDs we’re gucci. That becomes a tougher proposition at age 29. He needs to a little more help from his front and the whole fantasy community is side eyeing this group currently. There’s also future hall of famer Tyjae Spears in the fold as a player too talented not to find a role for. | Henry continues to defy logic and makes father time wait another year. The addition of Dhop and year 2 leaps from Burks and Chig lead to a better offensive environment than last season and the moderate passing game he finally got last season holds. |
| Tier 3-Rest of the RB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB9 | Joe Mixon | Is a suspension 100% off the table? There’s also concerns about his efficiency as a runner as that continues to dip. | Mixon had a career high in targets last year WITHOUT playing on 3rd downs. Perine is gone and whether it’s Trayveon Williams, Chris Evans or a combo of both..i don’t expect them completely absorb what Perine leaves behind. With this offense environment and positive regression due, Mixon is walking into double digit TDs. |
| RB10 | Rhamondre Stevenson | We can argue to what the degree but we can’t argue that Zeke’s addition won’t chip away at Rhamondre’s goal line and 3rd down bottom line. | The reward case is a simple one, he’s too good to put back in the bottle now. Especially of a team that’s not brusting at the seams with offensive difference makers. The offense is being led by a competent play caller for a change and per Pat Thorman they’ve played faster and implemented some no huddle this preseason. So with positive regression coming along with the potential play volume bump, I’m net letting the Zeke signing block my blessings. |
| Tier 4-High End RB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB11 | Kenneth Walker | The Seahawks aren’t breaking up with Walker by any means but it sure does seem like they went and got a side chick that does the things that he doesn’t. Zach Charbonnet is assignment sound runner with comfort as a pass catcher and pass protector. He also showed well in short yardage in college. If things devolve to Walker getting mostly relegated to mostly between the 20’s work…his ceiling looks noticeably different. | While back to back 2nd round investments at RB is significant from a draft capital standpoint, it only puts them at 30th in spending at the position. Is it possible that the Charbonnet pick had far more to do with ensuring quality RB play then find someone to full on take Walker of the field in these situations? Betting on that gives you a chance at a player whose talent and ceiling would place him 2 rounds higher than where he’s going currently. |
| RB12 | Travis Etienne | The Jaguars are showing the same signs of infidelity as the Seahawks. Rookie Tank Bigsby brings that short yardage hammer and Jamychal Hasty to a lesser extent on 3rd down. Bigsby has turned a strong training camp into buzz that his role will grow. | Etienne was efficient in his touches and has the burst to cheat the math. Granted this was before Bigsbymania, but Doug Pederson did throw out 1600-1700 yards as a goal for Etienne. |
| RB13 | Aaron Jones | Aaron Jones had a career high in receptions last year but how much of that carries over with Aaron Rodgers out and a more threatening runner in Jordan Love in? There’s also the unknown of the offense as a whole. I’ve probably been more optimistic than most on this Packers and even i have to admit that just penciling them in to repeat as the 11th best EPA per play offense is probably bad process. Then as a runner him and AJ Dillion probably just split carries down the middle. | While assuming the Packers offense will operate as efficiently sans a hall of fame QB isn’t good process, I do think betting on the variance of the situation is. If the Packers play at the speed that Lafleur played at with the Rams and more aggressive as a passing offense than many are projecting, we could see Aaron Jones reach near those receiving numbers. |
| RB14 | Jahmyr Gibbs | David Montgomery figures to be the primary goal line back but unlike with Jamaal Williams, beat writers expect Montgomery to be plenty involved as receiver as well. | The template to fantasy friendly usage is already established with the teams deployment of D’andre Swift. Swift had 70 targets last year despite uneven playing time week to week and at times the use of a 3rd back. Negative factors I don’t expect Gibbs to have to deal with. Any goal line work he gets is icing on a delicious looking pass game cake. There’s also talk of him and Montgomery being on the field together. |
| Tier 5-Mid to Low End RB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB15 | Dameon Pierce | Devin Singletary didn’t do a ton with his pass catching opportunities last season but he graded well as a pass protector last season and has a reputation of it going back to college. A trait that I’m sure was on the minds of the Texans brass when they made him a priority signing early in free agency. A trait that isn’t the strong suit of Pierce’s game. There’s also the question of just how will the offense be considering the lack of upper echelon weapons being led by a rookie QB. | The preseason passing down usage was more than just evaluation. With a talented Oline and bankable run scheme, he should see less stuffed runs this season (9th most last yr)..allowing his upper echelon tackle breaking to shine through. A darkhorse candidate to lead the league in rushing. |
| RB16 | Najee Harris | Since his rookie season, the allure of Harris has been the potential of workhorse volume. Jaylen Warren’s emergence has put a damper on that and if their red zone TD rate doesn’t climb (23rd last yr) it’ll be tough to see a meaningful ceiling here. | The Steelers 1st team offense has had a strong preseason which carries over into the regular season and makes this environment more fantasy friendly than currently projected, raising his TD ceiling. |
| RB17 | Breece Hall | The eventual later season shift to feature back status never comes to fruition. Cook becomes the preferred green zone, leaving Breece in desperate need of a bankable pass catching role to approach value. There’s also that pesky ACL thing. | The assumption is that Dalvin Cook will carry the load early on while Breece eases into action but Breece has actually made it back to the field before Cook. What if Breece just skips the 1B ramp up and goes straight to 1A? What if Rodgers, playing behind an OL with questions, gives Breece a healthy amount of targets i.e. Aaron Jones? We saw last year the type of outlier talent Hall has, with a no question better offensive environment he could beat his adp even with very involved Cook. |
| RB18 | Alexander Mattison | The Vikings were 26th in RB fantasy usage last year per Hayden Winks. They were also 2nd in the NFL in redzone pass rate. With a current 5th round adp I don’t think there is a noticeable difference between him and some of the guys going in the 7th. In fact, a few of them have more upside. | The Vikings haven’t added a RB of consequence and while Ty Chandler has impressed in preseason I don’t if it was to the level of carving out a significant role. While I expect Minnesota to be pretty pass heavy regardless, there’s a world where Brian Flores makes this defense formidable enough to get Mattison more clock killing opportunities. |
| RB19 | JK Dobbins | We know he’s the lead back but the extent of that role is a complete unknown at this point. Does Justice Hill’s preseason usage foreshadow a small role alongside JK and Gus? | I like to be aggressive where people are scared and move with caution where people are too confident. This is a prime example of a situation that could bare fruit at his adp. Dobbins is one of the better pure runners in the NFL, will inherently have the most pass game involvement of his career and is in a good offensive environment. Sounds like an adp beater to me. |
| RB20 | Cam Akers | Raheem Morris is hella underrated but he’s going to have to do some heavy lifting with this Rams defense. If the Rams devolve into a shootout team, that could spell mean more looks for Kyren Williams. | Akers should have free reign of the early down work after a strong close to last season. A run that happened while their Oline was in shambles. Nobody will confuse this year’s group with the great wall but it should certainly be better and healthier than last year. |
| RB21 | James Cook | With 2 between the tackle hammers added in free agency, Goal line work may be too much to ask for but what happens if he loses some redzone work as well? The Bills tendency not to throw to their running back proves to be a habit they have trouble kicking, leaving Cook challenged for upside. | Cook’s preseason usage sure looks a lot stronger than the “JD McKissic what could been” role. He looks poised to not only handle a large share of the RB carries but there also seems to be a focus on getting him the ball as a receiver. If you thought outside the box early on in best ball you’re about to get rewarded handsomely. |
| RB22 | Miles Sanders | He’s currently nursing an injury so we aren’t when he’ll suit up and how long it takes for him to get his full workload. There’s also the offensive environment downgrade which may be a little bit sharper than we expect considering the August that Carolina has had. | The 50 catch talk comes to fruition. In a winnable division, if they can sort out their more than reasonably talented Oline and their strong offensive coaching staff can churn out more efficiency than their weapons represent…Sanders could be a strong RB2. |
| RB23 | David Montgomery | As pointed out by John Daigle, some of Jamaal Williams TD good fortune came down to Amon Ra St. Brown’s awful TD fortune. Penciling him in for the same opportunity is probably a bad idea and as much as him dominating early down work makes sense, the Lions did just take a RB in the 1st round. | Even if his goal line opportunity isn’t a carbon copy of Jamaal Williams, it’s still of the double digit TD variety. Beat writers also believe he’ll be involved in the passing game. Montgomery is one of my favorite value picks regardless of position. |
| RB24 | James Conner | The good news is the Cardinals seemed to be committed to Caleb Williams. The bad news he plays for USC this year. Conner’s environment could be truly dreadful and unlike last year he likely wont have the benefit of as many spread formations. A meaningful ceiling could be really hard to come by. | As rough as it looks, Conner has been battle tested. His strong run threw the 2nd half last year came mostly without Kyler and on a struggling offense. If his targets hold (12th among RB’s last season) and the offense isn’t quite in the basement maybe he can help a stacked roster as a RB2 that puts up enough boring points to keep everything on schedule. |
| RB25 | Dalvin Cook | Coming off shoulder shoulder, Cook has yet to practice with the Jets. Signed to take the early season load off Breece Hall, what if ends up being the other way around? While Breece is coming off injury himself, his talent is immense…would anybody be surprised if he plays so well that he boxes Cook out of a meaningful enough role to make a difference in fantasy? | Things go as planned early and Cook shoulders the load early. With the amount of guaranteed money on his deal it would not be a surprise if it extended further into the year than assumed…and by the time his 1A role flips to a 1B role he’s helped you solidify a playoff berth. |
| RB26 | Alvin Kamara | Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller get a 3 game audition to earn touches when Kamara returns. He’s also got red zone competition coming at him left and right with Jamaal Williams and Taysom Hill around the goal line, Juwan Johnson led the team in red zone targets last season and they curiously spinned the block with end zone fade connoisseur, Jimmy Graham. | Kamara looked explosive in the preseason with strong usage. If the Saints opt to use 2023 as a growth season for Kendre Miller, Kamara should have no issue beating his 6th round adp. |
| RB27 | Javonte Williams | With Javonte coming off major injury, the Broncos made Samaje Perine a priority signing in free agency. It seems pretty obvious that Williams will have his workload managed but he also stands to lose a lot of passing game work to Perine, whose also a trusted short yardage back. There’s also the question of just how good this Russell Wilson led offense will be. | If anybody can steer this offense back to relevance, Sean Payton would be on the shortlist of current day options. Even if Javonte were in a early down early role it wouldn’t prohibit him from racking up a 40 ish catch season in Payton’s system. I’m expecting a run first outfit and if the Oline they threw plenty of cash at gels, Williams has upside above where he’s going. |
| RB28 | Isiah Pacheco | He remains boxed out of pass game work by Mckinnon and a healthy CEH starts to chip at some of his early down/short yardage work. | He’s pretty solid value where he’s going in drafts right now but if gains any pass game work and/or refines his running from a technical standpoint he could flourish in this rosy environment. |
| Tier 6-High End RB3 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB29 | Rachaad White | A volume play in a questionable offense with efficiency concerns of his own. Chase Edmonds is the 3rd down back to start the season. Desire to get him more touches in space goes for not with a slower pace and less plays. | The Bucs didn’t make any significant adds to their backfield, making way for White to get his shot at feature back usage. His ability as a pass catcher is leveraged and his patience and precision as a runner grows…giving him a shot to move toward the top of tier 5. |
| RB30 | D’Andre Swift | Roles materialize and he’s unable to carve out one to himself. With Penny being a talented between the tackles runner and more suited for goal line work and Kenneth Gainwell already trusted on 3rd down and in the red zone..there’s a world where Swift is there to pick up the scraps. There’s also the fact that RB targets weren’t very plentiful in Philly last year. | There’s also a world where he’s first in line for touches. In fact it seems like the more likely scenario at this point. Even without a voluminous pass catching role this offense will breed production and TD upside. |
| RB31 | Jonathan Taylor | Whew this is messy…we got the doomsday scenario with JT not being traded and being placed on short term IR. Had he been traded to say the Dolphins, i would have vaulted him up to RB9 but now he tumbles. If he returns and plays for the Colts there are concerns about just how good the offense will be and if they’ll throw to the RB (Eagles were 31st in RB targets last season under Steichen per Hayden Winks). | All isn’t lost here. Out of the 11 other people in your leagues you’re probably looking at 8 or 9 of them being incredibly risk adverse..making JT a potentially interesting lottery ticket if he falls far enough. Now if he remains in Indy you need some things to break right but we are talking a super talented back with the gravity of Anthony Richardson holding edge defenders. If anybody can just rip off a bunch of long runs to bend the math, it’s Taylor..and if he does get traded to a better situation he could give your RB2 spot a league winning boost. |
| RB32 | Brian Robinson | By the end of last year BRob operated as the clear lead back but that lead was much less pronounced in the preseason. While the Commanders offense should be improved I don’t know if it can support 2 backs with ceiling. | The split is a bit more definitive than it was in the preseason with Robinson leading the way on early downs but with more targets than last year due to change in offense. |
| RB33 | Khalil Herbert | Another potential thruple | Herbert is running as the lead back coming into the season and while the catches may not plentiful he does benefit from the gravity of Justin Fields as a runner. Herbert has flashed strong talent and efficiency early in his career. If he can squeeze either Donta Foreman into a pure backup he becomes a really interesting RB2 option. |
| RB34 | Raheem Mostert | The team drafted a young carbon copy of him in Devon Achane. Does his role inevitably shrink as the season progresses? | I felt like Wilson wasn’t so much ahead of Mostert as a player that it wasn’t a world where he could run ahead of him. Now he doesn’t have to worry about him at all in the first 4 games, a stretch where the young Achane may not see a ton of looks either based off of his preseason usage. |
| RB35 | Rashaad Penny | There are enough options on the roster that they don’t need Penny. We’ve heard him as potential cut candidate enough to believe there could be at least a little smoke there. | Miles Sanders parlayed this early down role into 1,200 yards and 11 TDs. He had a healthy 49 red zone touches, ranking 4th among all RBs. Penny certainly has the talent to push for that role. |
| Tier 7-Mid to Low End RB3 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB36 | Samaje Perine | He’s boxed out of ever having a feature role and Javonte Williams roles grows as the season progresses. | Sean Payton prioritized bringing him and keeps him very involved on 3rd downs and in the screen game. Becoming his confidant on short down and distance and around the goal line could give him every week viability even with a healthy Javonte. |
| RB37 | AJ Dillon | The assumed lean on the run game never materialized and Jordan Love is less inclined to check down, making Dillon a boring source of 10 or so touches a game. | The Packers either make it a point from the outset to be more run first. Dillon command over the goal line work continues, and armed with a few more carries he sets up anchor RB teams up quiet nicely as a cheap mid to low end RB2. |
| RB38 | Zach Charbonnet | The Seahawks opt to mix in DeeJay Dallas on pass downs and Kenneth Walker shows short yardage growth. Leaving Charbonnet involved but unpredictable. | The Seahawks lean on the aspects of his game that differ from Walker right away. Making him the back on 3rd down and in the green zone. Couple that with a couple series of his own each game and we’re working with something…and if his efficiency stands out compare to Walker maybe he carves out more. |
| RB39 | Devon Achane | How long will it take to get a role and is said role fantasy relevant? | I like swing for the fence picks in the back half of drafts and Achane is that. He has 4.3 wheels in a 1 cut system he was handpicked by his head coach to play in. There also seems to be a desire to get him touches in the passing game. |
| RB40 | Jamaal Williams | Today’s offense is not yesterday’s offense. I would not expect anywhere near the goal line opportunities he got last year. Especially with Taysom Thee Vulture lurking. He’ll also have to contend with talented rook Kendre Miller and Alvin Kamara after the first 3 games. Williams’ contract locks him onto the team for at least 2 years but his touches are certainly at risk. | For people that draft lean at RB or have early injury concerns, Williams is your guy. With Kamara suspended the first 3 games, Williams is the odds on favorite to lead the team in touches, goal line carries and 3rd down work. |
| RB41 | Antonio Gibson | We know what kind of open field talent Gibson is but it doesn’t matter if the coaches don’t prioritize it. A handful of targets and carries a game won’t get us what we need. | His preseason usage was favorable. With new OC Eric Bienemy on board, Gibson should get opportunities to make plays in the screen game and in space. A McKinnon role with more carries please. |
| RB42 | Kenneth Gainwell | The 3rd most talented back on the Eagles roster could always end up 3rd in the pecking order. If he plays close to the role he did last year he’s being drafted a few rounds too optimistically. | 3rd most talented is not an indictment of Gainwell as it is a credit to Swift and Penny..and the T word that most important here that we know Gainwell has is trust from the coaching staff. With buzz from camp that he’ll lead this backfield in opportunity, getting 3rd downs and good chunk of red zone work seems to be a good bet. If he can parlay that into a share of the goal line work he can definitely outkick his adp. |
| RB43 | Jerick Mckinnon | TD’s should certainly regress and there were too many games for my liking that his touches were minimal. | With training camp darling Deneric Prince not making the 53 man roster, the Chiefs will run back the same RB group, giving McKinnon the pathway to reprise his 3rd down role. You can grab him in the 14th or 15 round and profit. |
| Tier 8-RB4 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB44 | Tyler Allgeier | Last year’s Falcons RB2 role hits different this year when there’s a top 10 pick at RB1. | He gets enough work to be a bye week fill in type with elite handcuff status in one of the leagues best run offenses. |
| RB45 | Jaylen Warren | Work remains mostly of the 3rd down variety and it’s just not enough to give you upside barring an injury. | His effectiveness helps him eat into some of the non 3rd down work. |
| RB46 | Elijah Mitchell | San Fran defense takes a small step back with their questions at edge and corner and new coordinator, causing there to be less clock killing opportunities…where he got plenty of his work. | The Niners become even more mindful of CMC’s workload, pushing Mitchell towards a consistent double digit touch role. His ceiling case parallels with Allgeier and makes the two of them prime targets for me in the double digit rounds. |
| RB47 | Ezekiel Elliott | I think many are assuming he plugs right into a Damien Harris like role but how long will it take him to get up to speed and be effective? | The Patriots are clearly trying to be mindful of Rhamondre’s workload. Because of his pass pro acumen and sound between the tackles running…I think he’ll soon gain fans among the coaching staff and we know how far that goes when it comes to touch distribution. |
| RB48 | Tank Bigsby | The buzz doesn’t match the actual role and the Jaguars keep pushing that pass rate up. | Bigsby hijacks the short yardage and goal line work in an ascending offense. |
| RB49 | Jerome Ford | Does his recent, semi lengthy absence give the Browns pause about his weekly role? | The Browns have shown a good deal of confidence in Ford throughout the process, only adding Pierre Strong super late, a player I’m not sure is viewed as anything more than depth/return option. Maybe Ford doesn’t absorb the Kareem Hunt completely but it could be more than we assume. |
| RB50 | Gus Edwards | How much of a running team is this still? Was Justice Hill’s preseason involvement a sign of things to come? | Ravens backs have long benefited from the gravity of Lamar Jackson in the run game but in this new offense they’ll be able to benefit from lighter boxes. An insanely efficient runner, the Gus Bus could run over a few more Kia’s trying to matchup with the Ravens 11 personnel. |
| Tier 9-RB5 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB51 | Tyjae Spears | None | That he’s the greatest runner to have ever lived. |
| RB52 | D’onta Foreman | Foreman has fell behind Khalil Herbert and with Roschon Johnson being a better pass game compliment, we could see Foreman phased out as early as week 1. | Foreman has made the most of his opportunities the last 2 seasons and was signed pretty early in the offseason. If he can fight to keep this a 3 man committee early on maybe his play can do the talking. |
| RB53 | Ty Chandler | Pure handcuff status that never come to fruition. | This preseason play earns him a weekly role. |
| RB54 | Damien Harris | Latavius Murray takes on that RB2 role or he wins out but it’s so small that he’s not useful if he’s not scoring TDs. | When he signed I felt he was the odds on favorite to lead the team in carries. Even with James Cook’s preseason emergence maybe he’s not too far off from that as the bigger more physical presence. |
| RB55 | Devin Singletary | The more real this Dameon Pierce pass game role is, the worse it is for Singletary. Could be totally dependent on injury. | Singletary’s pass pro keeps him involved on 3rd down and he gets a little change of pace work. |
| RB56 | Kyren Williams | Mixes in on 3rd downs but doesn’t take it on completely. | The Rams motivation to involve him last year was for a more defined role than just your average long down and distance work. |
| RB57 | Kendre Miller | With Kamara and Jamaal Williams locked in contractually for 2 seasons, they carry the load in 2023. | Kendre does so much with his 3 game audition that they can’t put that lightning back in the bottle. |
| RB58 | Rico Dowdle | He loses out to Malik Davis for RB2 duties or said duties don’t look anything like the Pollard-Zeke split. | He has a fan in Mike McCarthy…is he enough of a fan to get a nice sized portion of the Zeke role? |
| RB59 | Roschon Johnson | Foreman remains involved and 3rd down role doesn’t materialize until it’s too late and you have to cut him. | He starts off the season as not only the 3rd down back but the change of pace option as well. |
| RB60 | Clyde Edwards Helaire | His full demotion last season was more than just the ankle injury. | CEH isn’t as explosive as Pacheco or McKinnon but can operate in either role. Neither player is so talented that you couldn’t see a scenario where he eats into eithers work. |
| RB61 | Chuba Hubbard | The mixed signals about Miles Sanders workhorse szn lean in the direction of yes. | Until we see Sanders actually take the field, Hubbard is the presumed starter. |
| Tier 10-RB6 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB62 | Kareem Hunt | He’s waiting out an injury that never comes. | Probably walks directly into a weekly role of some sort and you’ll get it essentially for free. |
| RB63 | Leonard Fournette | See above. | See above. |
| RB64 | Jeff Wilson | Does he play this year? | The Dolphins have voiced a desire to run the ball more. I don’t know much of that they can do early on now but if the Dolphins stand pat at RB thru his absence, he could come back to a useful role. |
| RB65 | Deon Jackson | Pseudo opportunity when in all actuality he sees a 4 game stretch of committee work in a questionable offense with a vulture at QB. | He separates some from the committee early and JT is eventually traded. |
| RB66 | Evan Hull | See above | Same as above although I feel like Hull has true + pass catching traits. |
| RB67 | Cordarelle Patterson | Kick returns and a handful of touches a week not enough to support anything. | One would expect him to get a couple carries again but if he can carve out a legitimate receiver role, even with just a few targets a game he could be interesting. |
| RB68 | Salvon Ahmed | At risk to Achane come up or a vet like Fournette or Hunt? | Dolphins stay content with what they have and Ahmed is the #2 behind a non workhorse #1. |
| RB69 | Zamir White | The Raiders rides Jacobs again. | He begins to mix in a bit in year 2. |
| RB70 | Trayveon Williams | Chris Evans wins the RB2 job. | Trayveon is the more well rounded back imo. Could see him getting a little more work than Evans if he won the role. |
| RB71 | Matt Breida | Backup to a 3 down workhorse doesn’t leave much upside. | Saquon injury wouldn’t mean a 3 down role I don’t think but could bring enough touches to help in a pinch. |
| RB72 | Latavius Murray | He’s an uninvolved depth piece. | He leap frogs Damien Harris for the big back role. |
| RB73 | Josh Kelley | Could this be a Fournette or Hunt spot? | Kelley operates as the primary backup |
| RB74 | Chris Evans | Unless he’s completely absorbing the complete Perine role, how valuable is he? Color me skeptical. | Sounds like he’s ahead for the 3rd down RB role. Us dynasty players have been teased by potential Chris Evans arrivals before so he’ll likely be free as people will think this is another false alarm. |
| RB75 | Keontay Ingram | Roster clogger whose handful of touches don’t matter. | Conner injury would give us cheapest avenue to touches we could ask for. |
| RB76 | Deuce Vaughn | If everyone is healthy his ceiling is probably a handful of touches a week and he’s not likely to get goal line work even with an injury. | Vaughn starts the season with scarce touches/returns to explosive plays that make it too difficult for them to put him back on the bench. |
| RB77 | Chase Edmond | 3rd down role isn’t enough in a bad offense. | He is a year removed from someone paying him to be a feature back. If he can parlay his 3rd down role into some change of pace work as well we may be working with something. |
| RB78 | Ke’shawn Vaughn | Backup on early downs that doesn’t get a big enough slice of the pie to be worth rostering without an injury. | Vaughn plays a more assignment sound brand of football and starts to eat into Rachaad White’s early down work. |
| RB79 | Jordan Mason | An injury happens in front of him and Kyle Shanahan calls up Alfred Morris | Touches in this run game are as bankable as they come. Eli Mitchell got plenty of clock killing work as the RB2 in San Fran last year. |
| RB80 | Ronald Jones | Dowdle remains the RB2 after RoJo’s suspension | RoJo steps in as the RB2 after his suspension and scoops up some goal line work. |
| RB81 | Myles Gaskin | Depth only piece in Minnesota. | Outside chance to push for the RB2 role. |
| RB82 | Sean Tucker | Roster clog | Parlays training camp 1st team reps into a early season role. From a pure runner perspective…there are much tougher rooms to takeover for early down work. |
| RB83 | CJ Spiller | It continues not to go well. | While Kelley has been better it’s not like he’s set the world on fire the last year or so. |
Carey’s 2023 Fantasy QB Tiers
| Tier 1-Elite QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB1 | Jalen Hurts | He gets kidnapped before the season starts. | Tougher schedule leads to more shootouts. Hurts’ talent being pushed behind an elite offensive line and front end weapons spell a historic season. |
| QB2 | Patrick Mahomes | See above. | The Chiefs have the 6th hardest schedule and Chris Jones still hasn’t shown up. Mahomes is frightening enough as is but if he gets pushed in a few more games the results will be gaudy. |
| QB3 | Josh Allen | Between the Bills adding 2 between the tackles bangers in the offseason and their preseason commitment to James Cook…maybe they finally start ease up Josh Allen’s carries. | With Damien Harris banged up, Latavius Murray not really being featured in preseason and James Cook not being a standout goal line runner…there’s a realistic world where Josh Allen remains the goal line back/distributor which would give him as good of odds as any to finish as the QB1. |
| QB4 | Lamar Jackson | The drastic offensive shift still has kinks that need to be worked out, leading to some good but not great early fantasy outputs. Feels pretty certain that their will be noticeably less designed run calls. Rashod Bateman and OBJ injury questions linger. | Lamar has been a terrorizing runner playing in a heavy offense with lots of condensed sets…so imagine the damage he can do in the open field with spread formation essentially being the new base? With by far the best weapons and fastest pace of his career, we could be about to see the self actualized version of Lamar Jackson. And the QB1. |
| Tier 2-High End QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB5 | Justin Fields | The Bears offensive approach pre 2022 bye is their preferred one and with more weapons and a little more OL optimism..they lean back into that and don’t leverage Fields’ legs as much. | Continued focus on using his legs as a threat combined with organic progression as a passer could lead to a 2021 Jalen Hurts type of season with room for more if he takes a substantial leap or the pace improves. |
| QB6 | Joe Burrow | The obvious risk is missing time early but he quietly had 5 rushing TDs last season. One would imagine that even if he’s good to go for week 1, they’ll tread lightly on designed runs and he’ll trad lightly on scrambles. For pocket passers we need truly insane passing numbers to make up for a lack of rushing production. | Their lowest of the low aDot is added by their Offensive Tackle shuffle and even with teams playing shell coverage trying to keep Chase in check they are able find more chunk plays. If QB health holds they will have a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses compared to last year as pointed out by Bill Barnwell. They also lost both starting safeties on defense. Both factors could aid shootout potential. |
| QB7 | Justin Herbert | His low YPA isn’t a Joe Lombardi or a Rashawn Slater issue. Quentin Johnston struggles with consistency and forms a time share with Joshua Palmer, leaving them nearly as juice-less as they were last season. | Herbert has the arm talent to challenge every blade of grass on the field and has long been empowered from a pass rate perspective. Health on offense, Quentin Johnston’s yac juice and the addition of Kellen Moore prove to be the Febreze this offense needed for him to reach back to 2021 success. |
| Tier 3-Potential High End QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB8 | Deshaun Watson | 2022 was more erosion than rust. The significant defensive upgrades of Schwartz (play calling), Dalvin Tomlinson(run defense), Za’Darius Smith (pass rush), Juan Thornhill (backend range) combined with the best pure runner in football causes the team to rethink their evolution ideas when the weather gets cold. | The buzz we’ve heard of faster pace, more spread and more pass attempts comes to fruition. His rushing production stays on par and one of their talented young weapons take a leap. |
| QB9 | Trevor Lawrence | Lawrence’s 5th round ADP doesn’t give us much room for error. Extrapolating his 2022 post bye numbers won’t be enough. We need him to hit another gear to pay off that price tag. | Last season’s post bye aggressiveness bump was just the tip of the iceberg. With Calvin Ridley now on board to challenge vertically in a division littered with secondary questions, Tlaw takes another leap into the 4,500 + yard/30 + passing TD category |
| QB10 | Geno Smith | I’ve operated under the premise that Pete Carroll has been playing coy about the Seahawks personnel and the Seahawks are now a base 3 WR team. There’s still a chance that they aren’t and that chance grows if JSN misses significant time early…putting our ceiling scenarios into question. Especially if the defense, which has upgrades at every layer, improves. | Geno’s advanced accuracy numbers motivate the Seahawks to move even further in a fantasy friendly direction schematically (Pat Thorman has noted faster play in preseason). JSN becomes the beautiful chain moving compliment to their pass catching group and their young and talented OL continues to ascend. A top 6 finish is one the table. |
| QB11 | Anthony Richardson | He’s a very inexperienced player who may very soon be losing his most talented weapon. Richardson is a polarizing player whose on a much shorter list this year of late round QB’s with high end upside, making it possible that you may have to take him a round or 2 earlier depending on how your draft falls. | His talent is immense and he couldn’t have landed in a better spot to showcase. Shane Steichen’s history of leveraging QB’s mobility, coupled with his ability to tailor his passing game to fit where his QB is in his development give me good vibes. They’ve also played a lot faster in preseason than one would expect and have vertical weapons in Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman (YES HIM TOO) that match up with the strength of Richardson’s game. There’s also the chance that Jonathan Taylor’s absence puts more on Richardson’s plate from a rushing and playmaking standpoint. |
| QB12 | Daniel Jones | Maybe we’re putting too much dip on his chip? Daboll is so good that he can utilize his mobility and get him to play mistake free football but Jones himself isn’t talented enough to ascend to a higher tier. Brandon Thorn’s 23rd ranked Oline doesn’t take strides and all but assures it. | Adding Waller along with the certainty that there will be an NFL caliber receivers on the field at all times (albeit…INSERT SLOT WR JOKE), coupled with more experience in the system takes Jones from mistake free runner to legitimate fantasy difference maker. His 3.2% passing TD rate will rise even on accident. |
| Tier 4-Potential QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB13 | Dak Prescott | “I’ve been where Kellen has been: Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up,” “But I want to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense. I don’t desire to be the No. 1 offense in the league.” | As jarring as those comments were…like always, Rich Hribar has been a voice of reason. Mike McCarthy has never been a ground and pound coach and their personnel screams 3 WR spread. While they’ll assuredly play slower and run more, there is still room for Dak to produce within that. |
| QB14 | Kirk Cousins | Last year Cousins had the fire pace, pass rate, flammable defense and the 2nd most red zone pass attempts in the NFL…and still couldn’t get above the QB11. The Vikings also added one of the true needle moving defensive play callers in Brian Flores. I find it nearly impossible that their defense will be as bad as last year and if any of the other above factors shift in the wrong direction we could be looking at a streamer/bye week fill in kind of QB. | Jordan Addison caught 100 balls as a 19 year old, I think it’s fair to call him an upgrade over current stage Adam Thiele. There’s also the potential positive TD regression coming for Justin Jefferson. As much as I love the Flores addition, there are enough talent questions to put a cap on how good they can be. Even if the defense is mediocre (A massive win btw), there is still enough stylistic factors going Cousins way to make him worthy if he gets some TD luck. |
| QB15 | Tua Tagovailoa | His down post bye play has been explained away as just injury related but what if it was more adjustment related? LT already banged up on an OL with questions. Coaching staff has also stated a desire to run the ball more and they’ve had confirmed interest in Dalvin Cook and now Jonathan Taylor. They’ve also added one of the true difference making defensive minds in Vic Fangio. | It does feel a bit funny having a QB with two top 12 WR’s at QB15. Mike McDaniel has proven that he can create space and use play action to create chunk plays (3rd in the NFL in explosive pass plays last season).With the Jets and Pats making various degrees offensive strides, more points should be required to compete. |
| QB16 | Jared Goff | Goff feels a lot like Cousins in the sense that plenty went his way last year and he was good (really good considering where he was drafted) but can he be win you a fantasy championship good? The key difference between the 2 is Cousins’ team has a much higher pass rate. The Lions also completely transformed their secondary and should be a lot more formidable. | Ben Johnson is one of the most talented space creators in football, playing in a dome and was given Jahmyr Gibbs (99th percentile speed) and Sam LaPorta (91st percentile speed) to deploy. While they do have WR questions outside of Amon Ra St. Brown from a volume/target earning perspective, Kalif Raymond and Josh Reynolds are reasonably talented downfield threats. Goff could distribute his way to relevance via chunk plays. |
| QB17 | Aaron Rodgers | The Jets play as slow as Rodgers’ phone service was when the Packers tried calling him in the offseason. The OL concerns linger into the offseason and sway the Jets even further to the run. Their monstrous defense keep them there. | Arod steers an efficient offense and hijack’s the green zone offense i.e. 2020. A Davante Adams-ish season for Garrett Wilson and few timely deep shots to Mecole Hardman could push Rodgers into relevance. |
| Tier 5-Potential High End QB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB18 | Jordan Love | The inexperience of Love and his weapons lead to a methodical approach where they ease him into action and lean on Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon. There’s also the chance that he’s just not consistent enough on a down to down basis to be any more than a bye week fill in. | The wide range of outcomes makes this a situation I want to take a chance on. Considering LaFleur’s background, it’s a very good chance that the slow pace they’ve exhibited was a Aaron Rodgers thing. There’s also a chance that instead of hiding him behind a run game, they opt to stress test him to see what they have before making a long term QB decision. Armed with nice arm talent and good mobility…Love is my favorite rags to riches QB bet. |
| QB19 | Matt Stafford | Last year’s uneven and uncharacteristically conservative play from Stafford was more than a blip. The Oline is healthier but just not good. Stafford also has health concerns of his own. | The Rams have the 12th hardest strength of schedule and probably have the least talented defense of the McVay era. If they get back to playing at the normal super fast pace, Stafford could push for an insane amount of attempts. |
| QB20 | Sam Howell | He and Jordan Love have some alignment, the difference here is Howell’s margin for error is noticeably smaller. With new ownership in place, the whole organization is inherently on the hot seat if his play isn’t up to par they have the steady vet Jacoby Brissett waiting in the bullpen. There is also the worry that the Commanders could lean on the run game, especially with Terry McLaurin banged up early. | Like Love, Howell is a come up candidate. He’s an aggressive player with + mobility. With former Chiefs OC Eric Bienemy at the controls now, a breakout candidate in Jahan Dotson at receiver and talented space players like Curtis Samuel and Antonio Gibson in the fold, there’s lots to like. |
| QB21 | Kenny Pickett | Matt Canada’s stale and lethargic approach is less to do with inexperience or inadequate play at QB and more to do with just his overall steez. Sounds like there could be some rollercoaster action with 1st round tackle Broderick Jones on Brandon Thorn’s 28th ranked line. A line better suited to run the ball. | Pickett has had an extremely impressive preseason. He has the surrounding talent and movement skills to make some noise. If Canada cuts things loose a little more and makes some adjustments (Get George Pickens some higher percentage looks please) there could be something here. Every offense in the division has improved and even if he was blindfolded, Pickett should throw more TD passes this season. |
| QB22 | Russell Wilson | Last season wasn’t an outlier and he’s with a coach who won’t bend his offense to fit the way Russ can best create leaving this offense as a run heavy outfit where Wilson is more so along for the ride or in a worst case is on the bench. | Similar to the Patriots, the Broncos get a big offensive coaching bump. Sean Payton will challenge Russ in a way that Nathaniel Hackett coudn’t and the organization of the offense should be night and day different. They’ve invested in their offensive line and even with the injuries they’ve sustained they’ve still got a fair amount of weapons. |
| Tier 6-Mid to Low End QB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB23 | Brock Purdy | The defense and running game is too good for Purdy to try any other dances outside of a 2 step. Without pace, gaudy passing numbers or rushing production he only gets there with insane efficiency. If the run game steals a few more of those TDs, Purdy becomes just a guy from a fantasy standpoint. | Eyeballing the 49ers schedule and it looks a little tougher than the 11th easiest to me. While I expect this defense to remain very good they do have a new coordinator and have questions at corner and edge rusher. If the sliders get tweaked enough to force a few shootouts, Purdy has the weapons to do some damage. |
| QB24 | Kyler Murray | We don’t know if on when he’ll play, which in the short term isn’t a big deal if your league has an IR spot but when he does come back it’s not to a 4 WR spread. This Cardinals offense figures to be more methodical and Kyler’s edge as runner will likely be curved coming off major injury. | Your lotto ticket looks better if his return is late Sept/early Oct. It’s a jackpot situation if he’s his normal elusive self. Regardless of the coaching staff’s intention coming into a game, this team projects to be behind A LOT. Kyler in negative game script, running around like a bad toddler has given us the goods before…this time it would be at a much cheaper cost. |
| QB25 | Derek Carr | Nothing about the Saints offensive approach or Derek Carr’s play last year screams fantasy upside. | He lands in an offense much closer to the one he had his most statically success in with Jon Gruden. In fact, Gruden has been around New Orleans, presumably to help with the install. Despite their approach, this isn’t an offense short on talent. They also have pass rush and speed concerns on defense. A dome deserves shootouts, doesn’t it? |
| QB26 | Ryan Tannehill | We know this will be a slow, Derrick Henry centered offense until he’s no longer a Titan. With that cap placed on his ceiling he can’t afford Treylon Burks early season injury nor a shaky line to live down to preseason expectations. | New OC Tim Kelly has a history of RPO usage and leverage QB mobility and weapon wise you could do much worse that Dhop, Burks and Chig O as your top 3 weapons. If they remain a heavy play-action team (they actually need to ramp it back up), we could see some useful weeks. |
| QB27 | Jimmy Garoppolo | If you’ve reached down this far you’re really scraping the bowl. | He’s got history with McDaniels and while they lack a true lid lifter, the weapons are more than solid, especially if Michael Mayer can push for a decisive share of the TE snaps early on. |
| QB28 | Mac Jones | With Tyquan Thornton struggling in training camp, this looks like a passing game that lacks a fast ball. One that will have to rely on efficiency to get there. Annually one of the very best coached defenses, this year’s roster seems to have more ceiling setting talent..could be a standout unit that leans on the run game to compliment it and just needs the pass offense to caretake. | Their OC doesn’t have a pencil in his ear…that’s as good of a reward as any. To a lesser degree obviously but it’s reminiscent of the Jaguars going from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson. Sheer competence will go a long way. |
| QB29 | Bryce Young | The Panthers slow preseason is a sign of things to come. They have a fair amount of NFL caliber weapons but lack any potential ceiling setters until/if Jonathan Mingo arrives. | Bryce shows he’s the play elevator he seems to be and his improve skills lead to more runs than we’re projecting. |
| QB30 | CJ Stroud | Likely slow, run first O, defensive minded head coach who, shaky at best weaponry…I believe in Stroud as a real life difference maker but none of this screams fantasy upside. | Negative game scripts and rushing production is the likely the only savior here. |
| QB31 | Desmond Ridder | I think Ridder will be given an early opportunity to prove he’s him…but if he’s not this thing could go into a shell quickly. | Ridder’s situation is probably better than a few of the players ahead of him in this tier. Arthur Smith is a talented play action pass game creator and flanked with 3 skill players drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft with upgrades to their complementary players in Mack Hollins, Scott Miller and Jonnu Smith. |
| QB32 | Baker Mayfield | I mean, do I have to say it? | He’s not without weapons and Dave Canales does make for a interesting coordinator hire coming off what he was able to help Geno Smith accomplish last season. |
| QB33 | Josh Dobbs | Besides experience in the offense he’s not set up very well for success | Is his acquisition a sign that Kyler is further away? Making this an extended rehearsal. He does have some mobility. |
| Tier 7-Watchlist | Risk | Reward | |
| QB34 | Clayton Tune | We only see him with a clipboard | Next in line if Dobbs falters, Has some distributor qualities |
| QB35 | Jacoby Brissett | See above. | Howell falters early, the coaching staff feels their seat getting a little hotter and pull the plug. Brissett’s play last year lends some confidence that he could do a competent job. |
| QB36 | Sam Darnold | See above. | Purdy faces tougher defenses and turns into a pumpkin. Say what you will about Shanahan (I certainly have) but his system breeds QB efficiency. |
| QB37 | Kyle Trask | See above. | He’s a Baker meltdown away from playing time with a one of the better WR duos in the NFL. His arm strength could make things interesting, I don’t know if it’ll be good, but it’ll be interesting. |
| QB38 | Jared Stidham | See above. | He signed a deal that was just big enough to get me to raise and eyebrow, after a solid late season showing last year with the Raiders. If Russ is cooked or just can fall in line with Sean Payton’s approach, we could see Stidham get starts with one of the better play callers of this era at the controls. |
| QB39 | Taylor Heinicke | See above. | Ridder will be given every opportunity I’m sure but if he fails to answer the bell… |
| QB40 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | See above. | A standout preseason sealed DTR as the QB2 in Cleveland. Because the money invested it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they go away from Watson, even if his struggles continue…but DTR is one injury away, has wheels and coaching staff alignment. |
| QB41 | Bailey Zappe | Gets a couple practice squad call ups but doesn’t actually make the roster | Rumors that BB doesn’t like Mac Jones comes true. If anybody is willing to pull that trigger it’s him and Zappe is technically still the backup imo. |
Carey’s Fantasy Football Study Hall
By Carey Stevenson
Just how big a slice of the Bills running back pie will James Cook see when the season starts? When the Bills signed Damien Harris in free agency, my assumption was that he’d lead the backfield in touches, but camp reports have Cook first in line for carries with healthy passing game involvement. I’ve long felt there was a chance that a false equivalence was being made between the modest free agent deal that JD McKissic ultimately walked away from in comparison to the 2nd round investment the Bills made in Cook. Goal line work is probably me putting too much dip on my chip but Devin Singletary’s near 10% target share and 10-ish carries a game feels like a fair ask with room for more on both fronts. We’re not out of the woods yet, but it’s starting look like we can add Cook to a growing list of attractive non dead zone RBs.
Justin Jefferson is the deserving 1.01 and carries little risk but Cooper Kupp is my prediction for who will finish as the WR1. There are obvious injury concerns but his situation sets up for him to have a career high in targets, which is insane considering the current high is 191, but hear me out…Kupp will simultaneously be playing with the least target competition and the least talented defense of his Rams tenure. He was on pace for 185 targets last season while the Rams played at an uncharacteristic chopped and screwed pace (30th in neutral pace). With a healthier offensive line coming into 2023 I’m going to consider that a blip on the radar, setting Kupp up to shred.
For the Best ball and DFS bro’s…I think you’ll be able to get some splash plays from Falcons ancillary pieces this year. As pointed out by Hayden Winks, the Falcons used play action and threw downfield at the highest rate in the NFL last season. They made better in real life than fantasy additions of Mack Hollins and Scott Miller at Wide receiver. Hollins had 1200 air yards for the Raiders last season, while Miller’s 4.4 wheels give me timely shot play vibes. I expect the Falcons to still be very much run centered but between those aforementioned shot plays and games where game script doesn’t allow them to play keep away…we could see some occasional fireworks in the passing game…and an appearance in my DFS “sprinkle me” plays this season.
The Packers offensive approach this season has a wide range of outcomes. Was their slow pace an Aaron Rodgers thing? Does it remain in place to keep the training wheels on Jordan Love? Or does Matt LaFleur go back to his McVay tree roots and speed things up, stress testing Love before they have to make a long term QB decision (See Jalen Hurts/Eagles 2022).
The Packers were 22nd in 3 WR set usage last season per Hayden Winks…Does the addition of Jayden Reed represent a shift in the same way that we anticipate Jaxon Smith Njigba influencing the Seahawks approach? We’ll get the answers soon enough but there’s a chance that the ceilings of Green Bay’s offensive players are a little higher than we expect.
I just can’t get there with Rachaad White. He’s a volume play in a questionable offense with efficiency concerns of his own. Bucs beat writer, Jenna Laine recently wrote that free agent addition, Chase Edmonds is the 3rd down back in Tampa…nipping away at RB targets that won’t be nearly as plentiful sans Tom Brady. There’s also the possibility that they play slower this year as well. I never fade anyone but he’s not someone on my radar at cost.
Not that i’m banging the table for Michael Pittman at his adp, but I do think he’s being unfairly typecast as a curl route artist because his QB was Matt Ryan. Pittman came into the league as a downfield catchpoint winner and benefits just as much as Alec Pierce from the addition of cannon armed rookie QB, Anthony Richardson.
The Cardinals are such a difficult team to peg. I’m in on James Conner as a non dead zone RB target but I have some ceiling questions. We know ultimately volume is king and that’s the appeal here. As Rich Hribar pointed out, Conner was the RB5 from weeks 10-17 last year and only 2 of those came with Kyler Murray in the lineup but we’re treading into different, slow paced and less 4 WR spread waters that I think will be murkier. At the same time, We’re talking about a defense that was 27th in adjusted sack rate last season that has even less bite with the losses of JJ Watt, Zach Allen and Markus Golden. Couple that with a puny 4.5 win total and the negative game scripts and Colt McCoy check downs could ease my worrying.
Ravens 2023 Draft Class – Day 2 & 3 Film Clips
Carey’s 2023 Dynasty Fliers – TE
-Albert Okwuegbunam
Albert O was one of the most exciting breakout candidates coming into the 2022 season. That promise never came to fruition as the Broncos had a historically bad scoring offense and he eventually fell out of favor with the coaching staff.
While Greg Dulcich is the incumbent and is probably a more well-rounded player, can we say definitively that he’s a better player?
That’s a question for new head coach, Sean Payton…a coach who has an impressive history of tight-end production. Jimmy Graham is the obvious one, but Jeremy Shockey was on pace for 70 + catches in back-to-back years to start Payton’s New Orleans tenure. Ben Watson caught 74 balls in 2015, and Coby Fleener caught 54 balls that same season and followed up with 50 in 2016. Payton is notorious for taking a healthy amount of shots down the seam to TEs…I would imagine once we get to training camp and he sees a 6’5’’ dude running 4.49 that his reaction could be very similar to Jerry Rosburg’s when he took over as interim coach last season, why isn’t he playing more?
Albert O probably hit waivers in your league when dynasty managers got into roster pinches, and if he didn’t he could probably be had for roster fodder or a late pick. He’s a lottery ticket worth taking because the upside is even higher than it was last year.
-Foster Moreau
Coaches love a TE that can block like Kel loves orange soda, and that’s Moreau’s calling card. The 25-year-old UFA will have no shortage of suitors on the open market. Now it’s very possible that Moreau winds up in a situation like the one he’s played his entire career, a sub-package blocker with more limited pass-catching opportunities but there is a chance he finds a new home with more of a fantasy-friendly role.
While he is a classic Y tight end, Moreau doesn’t lack for athleticism. At the NFL combine he ran a 95th percentile 20-yard shuttle, had a 36 ½ inch vert, and ran a 4.66 forty. His 12 yards per catch average the last 2 seasons lends credence to the idea that he could be a legit producer if given more of a chance to do so.
The Dolphins, Texans, and Titans all come to mind as teams that could use an inline presence and if he’s playing a decisive number of the snaps he could sneak his way into the low-end TE1/TE2 borderline if the TDs break right.
If your dynasty roster is hurting at TE that could be appealing to you. If you’re stacked at the position, he offers you the opportunity to stash him and flip him for a late-round pick or another bench asset if he lands in a good spot in free agency and gets a couple of favorable off-season coach quotes.
-James Mitchell
The in-season trade of TJ Hockenson leaves the Lions with a hole at TE this off-season. One of only 2 holdovers currently on the roster, James Mitchell is an interesting prospect with a lot of natural ability. Because of the torn ACL, he suffered as a senior at Virginia Tech, we weren’t able to get athletic testing numbers during the draft process, but the tape shows an athletic player with some catch-point ability and open-field speed.
After the Hockenson trade, Mitchell’s playing time picked up, nothing substantial but that could have been by design considering the injury. With a healthy offseason to further adjust to NFL life, Mitchell could show himself worthy of a more defined role on offense. An offense in Detroit that we can now consider bankable.
Working against Mitchell is the fact that the Lions have 5 selections in the first 81 picks of this coming draft, a draft that is thought to be one of the most talented TE drafts in recent memory. It’s easy to see a scenario where he’s a relative fantasy afterthought by May, but if the Lions have decided they’d rather save money/draft capital at TE, Mitchell makes for an interesting deep league stash.
Carey’s 2023 Dynasty Fliers – QB
One of the major storylines of the 2023 NFL offseason is the QB carousel. Many teams are in various stages of “down badness”, a symptom of desperation that will push decision-makers to try to make a splash at the position at all costs.
There could be as many as 13 teams with new signal callers next season and probably 9 or 10 at minimum. So, let’s look at the supply…Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, and likely Aaron Rodgers (depending on what the darkness tells him) are the notable veterans that will be available. Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson are the projected 1st round rookie signal callers.
That’s 7, and we know that some teams will be hesitant to start rookie QBs so banking on all 4 QB prospects to be week 1 starters probably isn’t the best bet.
So, who’s going to start all these games? Let’s take a look at a few players who could be on your waiver wires or could be had on the cheap that could return some value.
-Gardner Minshew
Minshew has spent the last 2 seasons in Philly as a backup to Jalen Hurts. In 2021 he appeared in 4 games, starting 2, and had a QB rating of 104.8. In 2022 he appeared in 5 games, again starting 2 and with a more open Eagles passing game he managed to produce 7.74 net yards gained per pass attempt…a number that only Tua Tagovailoa eclipsed last season.
There’s also the potential for rushing production. In his longest stretch of games as a starter in 2019, he averaged 24 yards per game in 14 appearances (12 starts). Not gaudy numbers by any stretch but icing we’ll take on a bye week or injury fill-in cake.
Now don’t get it twisted, I’m not trying to convince you that Minshew is some uber-talented QB being deprived of an opportunity, but he has shown the ability to produce on at least a moderate level when given the opportunity, and opportunity may come knocking this offseason.
What do newly hired head coaches love to do most? If your answer is making fake explosive noises to describe their players, that’s a really good guess, but not quite.
The correct answer is, to hire people they used to work with…and in Minshew’s case, he’s got 2 potential ins with the Cardinals and Colts respectively hiring Eagles coordinators.
Jim Irsay’s loose lips seem to have telegraphed the drafting of a 1st round QB, making Minshew a potential bridge that knows the system…and with the Cardinals, Kyler Murray is slated to miss time at the beginning of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL, giving the Cards a need at the position as well.
Minshew could serve as a depth option for your dynasty roster or potentially fetch you a late-round pick for someone in a tight spot at the position that believes in Minshew-mania.
-Jacoby Brissett
Brissett had 37 starts under his belt coming into this past season but seemed to take a bit of a jump in play in his 11 starts for the Browns. He finished with the highest completion percentage, net yards per attempt, and QB rating of his career.
Now his progression didn’t reach Geno Smith levels, but he was poised, made good decisions, was accurate on the move, and supported a quality fantasy season for receiver Amari Cooper.
Brissett showed he can keep a ship on course and I would imagine he’ll have offers after the top veterans come off the board. He’s got history with Frank Reich from his time in Indy and could serve as a bridge to a young QB in Carolina. The Buccaneers are tight up against the salary cap and could use a cost-effective option in the short term. He also spent his rookie year with Josh McDaniels in New England, and while we expect the Raiders to aim higher…Aaron Rodgers can only Quarterback one team at a time.
Getting 11 starts out of Brissett like last year is probably too ambitious but unless he signs a high-end backup deal in a spot where the starter is locked in, I’d guess he makes some appearances.
-Tyler Huntley
It’s not too often that a pro bowl QB falls this far under the radar but here we are. In all seriousness though, Huntley has shown an ability to keep an offense on schedule. He’s a timing-based, short-area passer with good mobility and 4.56 wheels.
In an offense built around those attributes w/pass catching talent and scheme upgrades over what he had in Baltimore, I could certainly see someone talking themselves into it on a short-term basis.
If things go sideways in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson it could be there. I don’t anticipate this being the case but if Lamar is tagged and opts not to report early on, Huntley could be in line to start games early on. The Texans figure to draft a QB with their 1st pick but may want to bring in someone with experience early on who can execute over the middle of the field and limit mistakes ala Brock Purdy.
Huntley struggled a bit last season compared to the season prior, but I believe that was at least partly injury related. If someone dropped him after the season ended I think he’s worth a stash while we wait to see how the QB landscape shakes out.
Carey’s 2023 Dynasty Fliers – RB
-Kevin Harris
Pierre Strong gets the buzz of this Patriots backup RB group. He was drafted higher, ran a 4.37 40 at the combine, and was rumored to be thought of as a long-term James White replacement…but Now Stevenson ended up healthy enough to take the lion’s share of the work but the intention in that move stands.
A question for this team going forward will be whether the pure “James White role” is still a thing and how much of it has Rhamondre Stevenson already absorbed.
A role we should probably be more concerned with is the Damien Harris role. If he leaves in free agency, Kevin Harris is a far better fit as a between-the-tackle replacement. He’s a 221-pound, compact back with good vision, runs with power and finishes runs. He ran 4.56 at his pro day which isn’t blazing but it’s adequate, I think his play speed is maybe a tick faster. He can have a role of substance in 2023 and he’s probably free or near free right now.
-Jerome Ford
With Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson both slated to hit unrestricted free agency, Ford is the only other back besides Nick Chubb currently on the roster. Ford is a well-rounded RB back who runs with a bit more power than his leaner frame may suggest. The former Alabama transfer is also more than comfortable catching the football and a very willing pass protector, traits that will aid him in his quest for Kareem Hunt’s role in 2023.
The Browns will certainly add competition but Ford is said to have impressed in camp. With Nick Chubb exceeding 70% of snaps in a game just twice in the last 3 seasons, the path for playing time on some level is there.
-Eno Benjamin
Benjamin was a late-round pick in 2020 who despite his talent, struggled to get on the field until last year. He finally carved out a role with determined running and pass game comfort, averaging 5.1 yards per touch thru the 1st half of the season before his surprising release from the Arizona Cardinals.
He apparently had issues with his role when starter James Conner returned and that led to the Cardinals letting him go. He spent just 2 games as a member of the Texans before they decided to do the same and eventually closed out the year with the Saints.
Much like the case with Jerome Ford, Eno finds himself as the lone backup currently on the roster but his upside case is a bit more appealing with a potential suspension looming for Alvin Kamara.
Now considering Kamara’s potential legal troubles and rising cap number, I fully expect the Saints to draft an RB at some point but Benjamin certainly has an opportunity to carve out a role.
-Trey Sermon/Kennedy Brooks
With Miles Sanders and Boston Scott hitting free agency and a Jalen Hurts extension looming the Eagles could look at the RB position as a place to save money. Sermon is more physically imposing while Brooks is more detail driven but both are inexpensive fits to their inside zone running game.
For an analytic-driven like the Eagles, I think a pay-as-you-go approach at RB is more likely than a long-term extension for Miles Sanders. With Kenneth Gainwell entrenched on 3rd down, I would not be surprised to see one of these guys earn a secondary early down role.
Bonus tip:
The value of your late-round picks will get a bump this year. As opposed to last year, this RB draft class is deep and talented. There are also a few very large RB cap numbers that could lead to some changing of the guard in a few spots which give you some lottery ticket potential. I think you’ll be able to turn those later 2nd and 3rd round picks into worthwhile RB fliers so hold your picks and try to acquire more if you have the roster space.
Super Bowl DraftKings lineup
Captain: Dallas Goedert DraftKings salary: 9,600
Flex: Eagles D/ST DraftKings salary: 3,600
Flex: Kenneth Gainwell DraftKings salary: 5,000
Flex: Jalen Hurts DraftKings salary: 11,200
Flex: Travis Kelce DraftKings salary: 10,600
Flex: Miles Sanders DraftKings salary: 7,800
Reasoning: I see why people gravitate to 4-2 or 3-3 builds in showdown, it just feels a lot more comfortable. Honestly it also feels like I can paint the picture of what I’m trying to accomplish with my lineup a little clearer as well but clear and comfortable doesn’t get us to the top of leaderboards.
Dallas Goedert at captain is the first step at differentiating here. With the Chiefs overwhelming likely to push this Eagles offense into more drop backs then their last 2 opponents, I like Goedert’s chances of an 8 or so target game with a couple of those coming in the red zone. The matchup is a good one as this KC defense has allowed the 5th most TD receptions to TE’s. Their young combo of inside linebackers are high on thump and pursuit but have issues in coverage. With the Eagles offensive weapons giving you so much to account for, I think Goedert winds up being the necessary concession attention wise for the Chiefs defense.
With Goedert in the captain the obvious follow up is playing Jalen Hurts at flex. You could make the argument for contrarian sake to go Mahomes instead but with Hurts’ rushing upside and chances at a ceiling game with more resistance from the opposing offense…I think he’s the best play on the slate, regardless of price.
Stacking Eagles can be tricky because of how condensed the production is in non blowout games. I’m essentially treating Gainwell like a receiver at his mid tier price, hoping to get a handful of catches on 3rd down and maybe he can turn one of his say, 7-8 touches into a TD.
Miles Sanders has been a popular sneaky play this week amongst the fantasy community and it’s easy to see why. Each of the last 2 games have set up well for him in the 1st half, only for him not to be needed in the 2nd half. The gravity of Hurts legs combined with the lid lifting of AJ Brown and Devonta Smith as well as the likelihood that KC doesn’t crowd the box due to these factors, and Sanders is set up for rushing success once again.
The lack of Eagles value plays led me to their D/ST. Mahomes gets rid of the ball and avoids sacks with the best of them but we are still talking about a player dealing with a high ankle sprain, a team whose tackles have had pass protection issues at times with their tackles and a defense who had a whopping 70 sacks this season. It’s fair to expect they get home a couple times, fingers crossed for a sack fumble.
I know I’m going Eagles onslaught but I do see this as a competitive game. My hope is that with the Eagles strong outside corner play and pass rush that there isn’t time enough for big plays down the field and things get funneled inside the numbers to Kelce and Juju. Going away from Mahomes obviously means I need his TD passes to go to Kelce and probably not exceed 2, but if I can accomplish and Smith-Schuster can stay in his 5-50 and no TD wheelhouse I think we’ll be in good shape.
Ultimately this lineup has a contrarian captain, leaves 2,200 in salary, plays 2 Eagles RBs, doesn’t feature Mahomes nor either standpoint Eagles WR. I’d say the duplication should be minimal but features enough upside to do some damage. If you’d like to get a little less risky,…you could swap in Harrison Butker for the Eagles D/ST.
With the season coming to a close I’d like to send a special thanks to everyone that has continued to support my fantasy content over the years. I can’t tell you how much it means as I continue this journey to make my way in this industry. Be on the look out for off-season content coming real soon. The grind don’t stop.
Conference Championship DraftKings lineup
QB: Patrick Mahomes vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 7,600
RB: Christian McCaffrey at Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 8,000
RB: Jerick McKinnon vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 5,400
WR: Quez Watkins vs. San Francisco DraftKings salary: 3,100
WR: Ja’Marr Chase at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 7,600
WR: Tyler Boyd at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 3,800
TE: Travis Kelce vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 7,800
Flex: Marquez Valdez-Scantling DraftKings salary: 3,600
DST: Eagles Def vs. San Francisco DraftKings salary: 2,800
Reasoning: Full this disclosure here, this started out as a Jalen Hurts lineup. Had it all punched in, I liked it, but a phrase just kept popping up in my mind…
Scared money don’t make none…and while I believe Hurts and Burrow are the guys you should be playing mostly this week I couldn’t in good conscience try to get you to the biggest of bags and not at least try to put together the rare underdog Mahomes lineup.
So what’s the approach? Obviously Travis Kelce is a must play but how else do we get there? Jerick McKinnon is the other kinda obvious stacking partner even though he’s a running back. He had his first zero target game of the season last week, something I highly doubt we see a repeat of. At his price even if it’s just catches and TD potential, I think it’s a strong play.
I’m not done yet though, I need another differentiator but figuring out these Kansas City WR’s is like playing ABACADABA on one of them old scantron tests (yes, I’m old).
It seems like the stance the field will somewhat take is playing Ka’Darius Toney and while he’s at a good price and has insane talent, I think people are playing him more so anticipating a hobbled Mahomes that will be getting the ball out quick. Hobbled Mahomes doesn’t get us to the money. So right off top I’m going to shift by playing MVS for much of the same reasons I played him last week. Routes run and air yards. He only had 33 air yards last week but that was with Mahomes missing time and then coming back hobbled. He had over 100 in each of the 2 games prior to that.
Now let’s not get it twisted, it’s a thin and risky play but it comes with being in the Mahomes business. For him to hit his ceiling we’re gonna see some random TDs, hopefully MVS is on the receiving end of one, preferably from 50+ yards out.
Went with one obvious and one not quite as obvious run back. Ja’Marr Chase is so thoroughly locked into volume on a weekly basis. Even if we are just talking schemed touches and hitches because the defense is terrified of him going over the top…he’s going to find his way to an ideal floor and we know what his ceiling looks like if he gets loose. Tyler Boyd is a great play at his price that I’m surprised isn’t getting more buzz. He’s got a good matchup, will run routes on 80+ percent of passing plays and benefits from the 2 high looks that Chase and Higgins necessitate.
Ended up with a small CMC-Quez stack to round things out on the position player side. There’s nothing i can tel you on CMC you don’t already know. At 8K he feels like an auto play. While Jordan Davis and all the beef that resides on the Philly front line will make things difficult for him we are still talking about an Uber talented runner in a Shanahan run game who also splits out and is targeted like a receiver. Quez Watkins is another dart that carries upside. In the 4 games that Jalen Hurts has thrown over 300 yards this season, Watkins averages 9.9 DraftKings points per game. Because of the stout nature of the 49ers run defense I expect Hurts to throw early and often and Quez’s field stretching profile matches the “weakness” of the San Francisco defense. At 3100 he’s the premier punt on the slate.
On defense I started to go with 49ers. Usually If I’m fading a popular QB like I am with Hurts here, I try to get aggressive in my lineups in telling the story that the player won’t do well. That’s a lot tougher to do on a 2 game slate. I’m already zigging with this Mahomes triple stack, too much Hurts disrespect may be putting too much dip on my chip. The Eagles defense get a rookie QB whose played extremely well but also showed a capped ceiling last week versus a defense not as talented as this one.
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