Uncategorized

QB: Brock Purdy vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 5,400

RB: Christian McCaffery vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 8,000

RB: Tony Pollard at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 6,100

WR: AJ Brown vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 7,600

WR: Marquez Valdez-Scantling vs. Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 3,800

WR: CeeDee Lamb at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 7,300

TE: Evan Engram at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 4,300

Flex: Brandon Aiyuk vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 5,000

DST: Bengals Def at Buffalo DraftKings salary: 2,400

Reasoning: I wanted to find a game to invest heavily in and it became clearer over time that Dallas-San Francisco was that game. Kyle Shanahan has this offense rolling in a way that outside of a heavy turnover game I find it difficult to find scenario in which they don’t score a good amount and in turn push Dallas into a higher volume of pass attempts, something we’ve wanted to see from Dak all year.

Both QBs project well for me and there are condensed weapons on both sides but Purdy’s price and stacking partners allow me to accomplish a bit more. Going with the QB-RB stack and Aiyuk over Deebo/Kittle I think will set us up to be different and have a combo that acts as double leverage on Debo’s rushing and receiving upside.

CeeDee Lamb is an obvious run back as a locked in, inside/outside threat but I needed another piece. Dalton Schultz is where everyone would go so to pivot I went with Tony Pollard. The matchup is a difficult one but if I’m projecting this offensive environment to be as fruitful as I think it can be I like him as a lower rostered RB2 to pair with the popular CMC. Even versus a stout front 7 i think the ultra efficient Pollard can create a couple big gains, a few catches and get into the end zone. This slate lacks another obvious RB play so why not invest in my primary stack?

Went with AJ Brown as a one off play on a slate where I wanted to invest in WR. Of the Diggs, Chase, AJB category I think he has the highest ceiling outcome considering the matchups.

My 2nd favorite game on the slate is KC/Jax so I like getting in the secondary slate I did. I’d prefer to correlate tight end with my QB/primary stack but it didn’t work out in this case so I went with the player I feel like is probably the best value at the position on this slate in Evan Engram. His price isn’t inflated, he’s super involved, odds favor a negative game script and his slot/underneath usage meshes with where KC gives up production. My run back isn’t for the faint of heart and if I’m keeping it a buck, I ain’t crazy about it either but hey, we can’t feel great about every piece of a successful GPP lineup. MVS’s boundary matchup isn’t good but he should play 60% of snaps, has 100 plus air yards in each of the last 2 games and at a mere 3,800 salary he could get me where I need to go in one play. For those 3 max or just more risk adverse players, Richie James fits into this lineup salary as a replacement and makes sense as a AJ Brown run back.

As the slates have gotten smaller I’ve ventured even further from the popular defenses. I also try to aggressively attack the situations I’m fading. It’s weird to say the Bills are off because they’ve essentially averaged 30 points per game since the middle of November but I don’t feel like this is a team clicking on on cylinders. Their run game isn’t created big plays and outside of Diggs they’ve gotten very uneven performance from their ancillary pieces.

In comes this Bengals unit whose perennially underrated DC Lou Anarumo does a great job mixing pass coverages and pressures. The Bills falling below expectations and turning over the ball a time or 2 would not be a surprise.

QB: Justin Fields at Detroit DraftKings salary: 7,900

RB: Jamaal Williams vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 5,000

RB: Tyler Allgeier vs. Arizona DraftKings salary: 5,300

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 7,800

WR: Garrett Wilson at Seattle DraftKings salary: 5,500

WR: Equanimeous St. Brown at Detroit DraftKings salary: 3,600

TE: Jelani Woods at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 2,800

FLEX: Saquon Barkley vs. Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 8,000

DST: Chiefs Def vs. Denver DraftKings salary: 3,800

Reasoning: Like Woj trying to leak NBA Draft picks without using the word draft…I’m lasered focused on this Bears-Lions game. Trying to figure out how to play it differently without losing my damn mind proved to be a challenge but here we are. I tried to be super aggressive in my differentiation by playing both Amon Ra and Jamaal Williams together. Many will play ASB and the people that are strange gluttons for punishment will play Jamaal as a contrarian one off but playing both and trying to soak up the Lion share (hehe) of the receiving and rushing production should set us apart. The other piece of this is who to stack Fields with…the obvious answer is Cole Kmet but obvious answers lead to duplication.

Equanimeous St. Brown is a super risky play but there’s a pathway that could make it less so by kick off. ESB practiced in full on coming off a concussion he suffered in week 15. Chase Claypool and Dante Pettis are both questionable to play after practicing on a limited basis on Friday. IF both miss, we’re looking at probably a near every snap workload for St. Brown at a super cheap price point in the best game environment of the slate. IF both play the odds obviously suffer but in week 13 when all 3 played he ran 68% of routes compared to 72% for Claypool and 76% for Pettis. I’m not trying to convince anybody that the play isn’t thin but I’m shooting for fireworks, ESB’s 86 air yards in that week 13 game is the most by a Bears WR since. Let the Hail Mary’s commence!

Decided to go the 3 RB route again with 2 of my favorite plays on the slate. Tyler Allgeier’s role is growing at the perfect time to be a home favorite in a great matchup. The Falcons should have no issue playing keep away on offense versus a David Blough led Cardinals offense. Same could be said for Saquon Barkley facing the Nick Foles led Colts. Barkley should get every carry he can handle and has 18 targets in the last 2 games.

Went to one of my favorite skinny stacks by plugging Jelani Woods in at TE. I know I kind of disparaged Foles not 3 sentences ago but he’s been fond of the TE. That reputation continued last week as Woods had 5 targets and 34% of the Colts air yards. With Kylen Granson out again this week I expect the freakish Woods to at least match his 69% route rate in a much better matchup vs. the Giants (6th most DK points per game).

On defense this week I’m feeling a few pay ups. With the financial freedom here I decided to splurge with the Chiefs. The Broncos have a historically bad scoring offense, just fired their coach and their offensive line has the 2nd worst adjusted sack rate in the NFL per Football Outsiders. With the Kansas City offense likely to force a negative script, the opportunities for sacks and picks should be plentiful.

QB: Joe Burrow at New England DraftKings salary: 7,000

RB: Alvin Kamara at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 6,800

RB: Jamaal Williams at Carolina DraftKings salary: 5,200

WR: Ja’Marr Chase at New England DraftKings salary: 8,300

WR: DK Metcalf at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 7,100

WR: Jakobi Meyers vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 4,800

TE: Mitchell Wilcox at New England DraftKings salary: 2,800

FLEX: DJ Moore vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 5,500

DST: Texans Def at Tennessee DraftKings salary: 2,500

Reasoning: One of the things I do in preparation for a slate is write down a list of players who didn’t meet expectations the week before that I think could fall under the radar for that reason. I just looked back at that list and all 3 players made this lineup *alignment*. Two of them are in my primary stack (Chase and Meyers). Ja’Marr Chase sorta kinda got there with a TD but the explosive plays we’re accustomed to seeing didn’t…it wasn’t for lack of trying though. He had a healthy 13 targets, 4 of which were in the redzone and 113 air yards. The matchup isn’t a great one but it’s also not a worrisome one either and honestly, with the kind of opportunity that Chase has, the way they hunt touches for him combined with his talent,,,you should be aggressively playing him regardless.

Hayden Hurst is expected to return and with his absence only being a couple games i’d expect him to be a near full time player. If he’s ruled out you could swap down to Mitchell Wilcox and upgrade elsewhere. Jakobi Meyers PS5 controller might have froze on him at the end of that Patriots/Raiders game last week but if people let that influence them not to play the only reliable piece of this Patriots pass offense at a mere 4800, I want to take advantage of that.

The 3rd member of my redemption list is Alvin Kamara. Now this one has some clear pros and cons. He ran one fewer route than David Johnson last week, the game has a 32 point total, he’s only scored a TD in one game this season, TAYSOM HILL…one the other hand, this Browns run defense is awful, he handled 23 of the 27 RB touches last week and he’s at a really good price point. Kamara is gonna have to do this in a different way than we’re accustomed in all likelihood. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a 5 catch game but I think the 100 yard bonus is squarely in play versus this run defense and conditions (27 mph winds). I expect his rostership to be minuscule compared to last week.

My RB2 play also carries some risk but has some upside. The Panthers want to establish the run and hide their QB on offense and while that would have set them up for success in this matchup earlier in the season, #OurLions have shored their run defense up in dramatic fashion. The Lions have held opponents under 100 yards rushing in 4 of their last 5 games. Setting them up to control this game and thus run the football versus this average at best Panthers run defense. The Lions backfield is messy no doubt but the messiness never really prevents Jamaal Williams from getting double digit carries and most if not all the goal line carries. I doubled down on that by stacking him with the Lions defense, may the sacks and short fields be plentiful. Here’s to multiple pelvic thrusts in the end zone *Cheers*

DK Metcalf is the duh play of the week. No Tyler Lockett in all likelihood will raise his already very strong target share to eilte levels, we expect a negative game script and the Chiefs have given up the most TDs to WRs in the NFL. Isaiah Hodgins projects as one of the better values on the week as a full time boundary player in a beautiful matchup versus this Vikings vulnerable zone defense.

Update: Due to the Hayden Hurts rule I’ve made the following changes to the lineup.

In: Mitchell Wilcox, DJ Moore, Texans Def

Out: Hayden Hurst, Isaiah Hodgins, Lions Def

Wilcox keeps the Bengals double stack in place, he ran 73% of routes last week and should be good for a handful of targets at a near minimum price point. Need one of those targets to land In pay dirt.

Decided to pay down at DST and get aggressive with this non Derrick Henry lineup. The Texans have competed well in back to back weeks versus 2 of the leagues top offenses and the Titans just lost another OL starter and will have inexperienced player caller.

That pay down afforded me the money to go up to DJ Moore. Amon Ra St. Brown/Jamaal Williams – DJ Moore is one of my favorite skinny stacks on the week. I expect the Lions to force the Panthers into more drop backs and the matchup is a good one.

QB: Dak Prescott at Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 6,200

RB: Josh Jacobs vs. New England DraftKings salary: 8,100

RB: Travis Etienne vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 6,000

WR: CeeDee Lamb at Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 7,300

WR: Christian Kirk vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 6,600

WR: Michael Gallup at Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 4,500

TE: Jordan Akins vs. Kansas City DraftKings salary: 2,700

FLEX: Isiah Pacheco at Houston DraftKings salary: 5,900

DST: Falcons Def at New Orleans DraftKings salary: 2,500

Reasoning: I knew very early in the week that Dallas stacks were going to factor heavily in what I was doing. Losing Mike White in that Jets/Lions game only intensified that (I know, I know). Prescott isn’t getting great volume but for an offense as efficient as Dallas’ is, he has to have some gaudy numbers games in him in the right circumstances…well, I think we’ve found those circumstances.

The Jaguars pass defense is among the worst in the league in most metrics, they play at a top 10 neutral pace and have a burgeoning young QB and offense that can push back and keep the Cowboys foot on the pedal. Dalton Schultz is the obvious double stack partner here but he’s going to be popular so I found a way to differentiate with Gallup. What I like about this pivot outside of rostership is for it to hit it likely represents a different offensive route for Dallas – Deep shots and 50/50 balls to Gallup over boring red zone strikes to Schultz give us a better crack at that 300 yard bonus. The double run back gives me more differentiation for good measure. Christian Kirk has a good slot matchup and while Etienne has been quiet in recent weeks his workload as a runner hasn’t. His 24 routes run last week were his highest total since week 5, now he wasn’t targeted last week and I’m not suddenly expecting many here either but the Cowboys strong pass rush could potentially push a few check downs his way.

Josh McDaniels comments on Josh Jacobs’ this week were as clarifying as you can get. Expect him to play and continue his voluminous ways which I’m leaning into despite the tough-ish matchup. The Patriots have been a shaky offense and could be without their 2 best skill guys in Rhamondre Stevenson and Jakobi Meyers, lessening the already slimmer chances they could truly play keep away on offense.

My secondary stack came together so smoothly. The Chiefs are a big favorite in a beautiful RB matchup versus the Texans. Giving Pacheco double digits carries should likely bare fruit at his price even if he isn’t very involved in the pass game. Plugging in Pacheco gave me the chance to follow my true passion – finding an excuse to play Jordan Akins. He’ll be in a likely negative game script, has been one of the more efficient TE’s when he gets opportunities, racking up strong YAC numbers. With the Texans still missing Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, he should see a boost in opportunity, behind Jerry Rice..I mean Chris Moore, of course.

My DST play follows the same playbook as last week, attacking a division matchup in an attempt to gain leverage. Alvin Kamara looks like a great play this week and I’ll be playing him like everyone else but nobody should be confusing the Saints (21st ranked scoring offense) with some offensive juggernaut that will come in an steamroll the Falcons. When these teams faced off in week 1, Kamara had 46 total yards on 12 touches. Then there’s the New Orleans perennially shut down rush defense being down a tick (10th in EPA per rush, 4.5 yards per carry). Whose to say the Falcons are aren’t able to play keep away with their run heavy approach? A cheap, contrarian defense versus a middling offense…here for it.

QB: Patrick Mahomes at Denver DraftKings salary: 8,000

RB: Dalvin Cook at Detroit DraftKings salary: 7,300

RB: Miles Sanders at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 6,200

WR: Jerry Jeudy vs. Kansas City DraftKings salary: 5,400

WR: DJ Chark vs. Minnesota DraftKings salary: 4,300

WR: Isaiah Hodgins vs. Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 3,500

TE: Travis Kelce at Denver DraftKings salary: 7,600

Flex: Zonovan Knight at Buffalo DraftKings salary: 5,100

DST: Browns Def at Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 2,600

Reasoning: I’ve been trying to double stack the Chiefs all year and my thoughts have ranged from “MVS is running the most routes, eventually he’s going to start getting deep targets” to “Maybe I was too low on Juju to start the year” to “Here comes Skyy!” to “Toney #freed!”. I’ve been down bad enough in this process that I’ve tried to identify who would play the “mecole hardman role” – that schemed touch TD is like trying to find a needle in a haystack amongst this group. This week though, as pointed out by John Daigle…Mahomes is so low rostered that chasing that 2nd piece isn’t as necessary. Anyone who tries to stack this game will likely do so with cheap WRs on both sides and cheap TE cover boy Greg Dulcich, going with just the single stack and running it back with Jeudy probably ensures differentiation. If anybody for Denver is going to give Kansas City enough of a nudge to stay aggressive halfway through the 4th quarter, I’d say it’s Jeudy.

The Vikings/Lions game is the premier one on the slate. Like everyone else I’ll be playing it aggressively. I love that I was able to do so here without the most popular pieces of the game. I’m not completely sold on the Vikings and the Lions have pulled at my heart strings since the summer…with that being said, Dalvin Cook SHOULD be a home favorite RB here. While I understand people’s concerns with his targets lately, he did run his highest percentage of the season last week, and it’s not like his numbers have dropped to rock bottom (9 targets in the last 3 games). He’s dominating RB touches in a great game environment and everybody will play Justin Jefferson and Amon St. Brown over him. An easy way to get different. DJ Chark versus a non confrontational Vikings secondary makes all the sense as a run back.

Went with another under the radar play with risk with the other RB spot. The Eagles passing offense called a BBQ chicken alert last week on the Titans pass defense, opting not to run it at their stout run defense and attack their secondary. This week they face a Giants defense giving up a healthy 5.1 yards per carry. Sanders will need TD(s) to get there but his 5 targets in the last 2 games give me at least a tiny bit more comfort. Isaiah Hodgins has become a near every down player for a Giant offense down on weapons. A negative script seems likely, the Eagles stonewalled the Derrick Henry last week with the return of Jordan Davis and Saquon Barkley could miss this game and funnel a couple more short area targets to Hodgins. He could flirt with 8 to 10 targets at a near minimum salary.

Zonovan Knight has taken full advantage of his recent opportunity. He gives the Jets a hammer element in the run game that meshes well with their defense and isn’t a zero in the pass game by any means. I kinda hope Michael Carter plays, suppressing the rostership of Knight. There’s a chance the Jets believe Knight is their guy.

I’m not gonna try to hustle you at DST, this is a punt play to save salary. When you roster Mahomes and Kelce you gotta hit the clearance rack somewhere. Low key though, this play has a couple paths. After last week’s big win in KC, if there were a let down spot this would be it. A division opponent, one that has beat them the last 4 meetings. The Bengals offensive line has given up the 7th most sacks on the season and if the game goes the shootout route that could be helpful.

QB: Trevor Lawrence at Detroit DraftKings salary: 5,900

RB: Aaron Jones at Chicago DraftKings salary: 6,900

RB: Jamaal Williams vs. Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 6,000

WR: Amon Ra St. Brown vs. Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 7,100

WR: Christian Kirk at Detroit DraftKings salary: 6,300

WR: Garrett Wilson at Minnesota DraftKings salary: 5,300

TE: Evan Engram at Detroit DraftKings salary: 3,000

Flex: DK Metcalf at Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 6,700

DST: Dolphins Def at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 2,500

Reasoning: This Lions-Jaguars game could resemble a competitive ping pong game with tons of scoring back and forth. It’s one I wanted to invest in but the relative popularity of Trevor Lawrence gave me some pause. Ultimately I felt like I could be aggressive and unique enough to make it work but going with the double run back and going with Kirk and Engram over last week’s lineup hit Zay Jones. Especially considering Kirk’s slot matchup. You don’t have to threaten me with a good time correlating my TE for 3K. The Lions giving up the 4th most DK points per game to TE’s is icing on the cake. Amon Ra St. Brown will be popular and for good reason…his volume is rivaled by very few and the matchup is a good one as the Jaguars defense has steadily regressed and have given up the 3rd most TDs to the WR position. Jamaal Williams continues to get the most rushing volume in this Lions offense, an offense that has been cash in red zone (3rd in the NFL). Fingers crossed for Williams’ 6th multiple TD game.

I tried to get a secondary stack into this lineup but every one I landed on made me feel like I was sacrificing too much. Maybe it’s the matchy matchy tendencies of my generation but it feels like too many colors in my outfit…however, looking at some of the adidas pants, nike shoe looking winning gpp lineups over this season, I might as well get a lil colorful myself.

Aaron Jones remains the clear lead RB and had a season high in routes run last week. The matchup versus what’s left of the Bears defense is a beautiful one.

Garrett Wilson will be popular but I think my lineup is different enough to withstand it. He’s one of the rare players in a league full of great athletes that just seems to be moving at a different speed than the corners tasked with defending him. With competency at QB and a decisive share of targets, i’ll continue to play him while his price point doesn’t accurately represent his profile.

DK Metcalf is flying under the radar this week and I love his opportunity. The Rams middling pass rush will be without their main cog as Aaron Donald is set to miss the game. Geno Smith has been money in clean pockets (77.8% completion rate per player profiler) and versus zone, which the Rams play at one of the highest rates in the league. Metcalf has one of the higher ceilings at the position this week.

On defense this week I’m opting to play the shoot out angle. The Dolphins will likely be without both their OT’s and they defend the run much better than they defend the pass but sport a more than respectable pass rush. With the amount of drop backs in this game trending towards the over, I’m gonna see if I can steal a sack fumble or pick 6 from Jimmy G at a cheap price and lower rostership.

QB: Justin Herbert at Arizona DraftKings salary: 7,000

RB: Jeff Wilson Jr. vs. Houston DraftKings salary: 5,900

RB: D’Onta Foreman vs. Denver DraftKings salary: 5,500

WR: Mike Evans at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 6,700

WR: Keenan Allen at Arizona DraftKings salary: 6,100

WR: Zay Jones vs. Baltimore DraftKings salary: 4,600

TE: Gerald Everett at Arizona DraftKings salary: 4,400

FLEX: James Conner vs. Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary: 6,600

DST: Titans Def vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 3,100

Reasoning: Decided to go with the game with the most potential fireworks as my primary stack and i’ll get different elsewhere. Herbert pushed the ball downfield a bit more last week so I’m hopeful that’s a sign of things to come. Keenan Allen is a great value and stands to see his snaps ramp up going forward. Everett is falling under the radar and correlating my TE with my primary stack brings me a zen feeling. James Conner’s workhorse role going up against a 2 high safety obsessed defense is one of my favorite plays of the week. Regardless of how this game script goes he has a chance to hit.

Going back to my 3 RB ways and Jeff Wilson is an obvious one. At his price he’d be a good play even if Mostert played but with him being doubtful, in a matchup that you couldn’t create a better one in a lab…give me all the Wilson. D’Onta Foreman is my pivot play at the position. On a rainy day at home versus a offensively challenged Broncos team, Foreman could legitimately push for 30 carries. It carries risk because of the low totaled nature of this game and his light pass game involvement but it’s a chance I like taking.

Mike Evans is a guy I like going to when everybody is off because he’s always got multi TD upside. The Browns defense being 26th in EPA per dropback helps as well. Zay Jones was a last man in that projected the best at lower rostership.

On defense I think I’ve found a leverage point. Joe Burrow I think will be decently popular for those that don’t want to pay all the way up at QB. Teams throw a lot on the Titans because of how well they defend the run and without Joe Mixon the Bengals should probably lean more on Burrow’s arm. The matchup looks good for him and he’ll definitely be in lineups for me but looking at the other side of things, the Bengals will be without Ja’marr Chase and Burrow has taken the 3rd most sacks in the NFL. I’ll take my chances on Jeffrey Simmons, Denico Autry and company.

QB: Dak Prescott at Minnesota DraftKings salary: 6,600

RB: Dalvin Cook vs. Dallas DraftKings salary: 8,000

RB: Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 6,200

WR: CeeDee Lamb at Minnesota DraftKings salary: 7,500

WR: Devonta Smith at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 6,200

WR: Ben Skowronek at New Orleans DraftKings salary: 3,900

TE: Logan Thomas at Houston DraftKings salary: 2,800

Flex: Dameon Pierce vs. Washington DraftKings salary: 6,500

DST: Steelers Def vs. Cincinnati

Reasoning: *Insert popeyes cook meme* This week is TOUGH. Value is lacking, making game and even skinny stacks take on a Rubik’s cube vibes. Lots of concessions were made and the first one started with my primary stack. I had Dalton Schultz in to double stack Dak. I tried my hardest to tweak this lineup and keep him but at every turn I needed to save salary. The matchup is such a good one for him and Lamb and despite playing so much zone, the Vikings surprisingly have allowed 41 QB rush attempts this season. I’ll just have to hope for a Peyton Hendershot or Jake Ferguson TD *fingers crossed*

If the Vikings want to continue their winning ways they’ll feed Dalvin Cook early and often and keep Micah Parsons grounded as a pass rusher. Cook’s passing game involvement and usage separation from Alexander Mattison over the last couple weeks made me more comfortable paying this hefty price tag.

Went back to RB in the flex in an attempt to get different and was able to parlay that into a skinny stack with Dameon Pierce and Logan Thomas. Pierce has a fairly tough matchup but his usage rivals most anybody in the league. Even if he’s got to grind out 25 tough carries, he’s got the talent to splash on 3 of them, vacuum in a few catches and find the end zone. He’s still too cheap for his role.

With my other 2 WR plays I landed on guys I just feel good about after battles to try to find another skinny stack. Devonta Smith gets a good matchup versus the zone heavy Colts *hat tip to John Daigle* and don’t have a 1 for 1 player to absorb Goedert’s volume. Many seem to be gravitating Tyler Higbee as a guy that will absorb Kupp’s volume coming off an 8 target game but his role was declining in recent weeks and the Rams’ offensive line has gone from small fire to inferno, he could be doing a lot more blocking. Skowronek was a full time player last week, ran a route on 80% of snaps and will get more slot snaps than anybody else. The Rams run game has had enough problems on their own but now they get a historically very good Saints run defense. Skowronek should be very busy on sunday, busy enough to pay off that 3,900 price tag.

Statistically the Steelers defense haven’t given us much to write home about since week 1 but many of those games have been without TJ Watt. I’m banking on familiarity, the absence of Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals offensive line as factors that could lead us to a strong performance at a super cheap price point..countering those who look at Joe Burrow as a prime spend down option from the Jalen Hurts/Josh Allen tier.

QB: Justin Fields vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 6,500

RB: Travis Etienne at Kansas City DraftKings salary: 7,100

RB: Dameon Pierce at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 6,300

WR: CeeDee Lamb at Green Bay DraftKings salary: 7,000

WR: Amon Ra St. Brown at Chicago DraftKings salary: 6,900

WR: Chase Claypool vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 4,800

TE: Harrison Bryant at Miami DraftKings salary: 2,700

FLEX: Jeff Wilson vs. Cleveland DraftKings salary: 5,500

DST: Colts Def at Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 2,500

Reasoning: You know how badly I like to at least moderately zig with my primary stack but this is a week where they just seem so pronounced that I’d be doing you all a disservice by trying to force it (I’ll save the Matt Stafford and Kenny Pickett double stacks for my personal time). Playing Justin Fields is the easy part, trying to figure out who to stack him with is not. Because of the draft capital given up and just how motivated the Bears were to get Chase Claypool involved in his first game I opted to roll with him but I couldn’t bring myself to add another Bears pass catcher. Initially I had Cole Kmet and went away from because 1. His 2 TD game could make him semi popular 2. His route run rate (66% percent last week) is fine but I just feel like if I’m going to make a gross play that also isn’t going to be contrarian, than it needs to be closer to 80%. I’ll probably cave and do it by the time Sunday rolls around, but not here. Brock Wright would be another cheap TE option you could run here. Amon Ra St. Brown is an easy bet for volume that rivals any WR that’ll suit up this week, just need the TDs and splash plays to start rolling in.

The secondary stack of Jeff Wilson/Harrison Bryant is a cheaper way to get into one of the other premier games on the slate and leverage popular pieces in it. Wilson carries risk but I’m leaning in on the possibility that his substantial opening game usage is a sign of a more decisive split in the future as opposed to a 50/50 timeshare. Last week he had 4 touches inside the 10 yard line as pointed out by Ben Gretch and ran 43% of the routes. A multiple TD game that side swipes Tua, Tyreek and Waddle is squarely in play. Harrison Bryant routes run numbers weren’t great last week but whether it’s by Tua and the Dolphins passing game (preferably not) or Wilson, he’s going to be pushed to run more and he’s really cheap.

TJ Hernandez inspired me to go RB in the flex a few weeks ago and like all of our attention spans these days I totally forgot it a week later…subconsciously riding my normal approach of WR in the flex over everything. So in an attempt to find ways to get different in a lineup with a popular Justin Fields, I added Travis Etienne and Dameon Pierce to this lineup. Both have been revelations in recent weeks, have put chunk plays on film and are probably a little underpriced considering their roles. They’ll both be popular and will show up together in a lot of lineups, but I doubt they’ll show up with Jeff Wilson, unless of course you’re rocking with ya boy.

There always seems to be a WR that gets kinda lost in the shuffle but when he starts going off on Sunday you think..”Of course, it was all there, why wasn’t I on him?”

This week I think that guy is CeeDee Lamb. The Packers exploitable run defense is concerning but CeeDee Lamb’s usage is top tier. There’s also the chance that we get a more limited Zeke or no Zeke at all as he’s currently a game time decision. Funneling a couple more targets to a talented and efficient player at lower rostership sounds like a good time to me.

At defense I’m rolling with the fighting Irsay’s. If you didn’t peep that Jeff Saturday introductory presser, do yourself a favor and YouTube it asap. Back to the play though…Like every other DFS player, I’m always looking for an angle to play a cheap defense. Many will roll with the Vikings at 2,200 if Josh Allen is out but I like the Colts here. Their offense is no question broken but nobody will confuse the Raiders offense with one that has it all together either…and they just placed Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow on IR. Maybe Jeff Saturday gives this team a 1 week boost of adrenaline, their more than respectable run D keeps Josh Jacobs in check and Davante Adams only goes 25-50% nuclear. I think that’s a reasonable ask.

QB: Tom Brady vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings Salary: 6,000

RB: Travis Etienne vs. Las Vegas DraftKings Salary: 6,300

RB: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Indianapolis DraftKings Salary: 6,200

WR: Justin Jefferson at Washington DraftKings Salary: 8,600

WR: Terry McLaurin vs. Minnesota DraftKings Salary: 5,900

WR: Chris Godwin vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings Salary: 6,200

TE: Cade Otton vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings Salary: 3,100

FLEX: Allen Robinson at Tampa Bay DraftKings Salary: 5,000

DST: Seahawks Def at Arizona DraftKings Salary: 2,500

Reasoning: Don’t be alarmed looking at my primary stack, I’m sane and aware that it isn’t 2021 anymore. It hasn’t looked great for the Bucs recently but I think there are some elements at play here that could turn back the clock a bit. The Rams play predominately zone defense, have a great run D and a pass rush that has went from absolutely monstrous to above average. Despite injuries across the OL, the Bucs offensive line has a top 3 adjusted sack rate…now I know that has to be taken with at least a small grain of salt because we know TB12 ain’t here for getting hit, when things get thick that ball is coming out…but it’s still impressive on some level. If Brady isn’t getting moved off his spot a ton and he knows where the soft spots on the opposing are, I think you can still bet on him despite the struggles. I feel good about his odds at hitting the 300 yard bonus, can the TDs return?

I went with Godwin over Evans due to price and zone defense versus man defense splits and with Cameron Brate ruled out, Cade Otton gets another week as a full time player. He ran a healthy 34 routes last week and drew 3 red zone targets. The Allen Robinson run back doesn’t give me warm and fuzzy feelings but he has at least been functional the last 2 weeks. I like that even with Van Jefferson back he ran 80% of the routes last week and he has 2 red zone targets in each of the last 2. The Rams play at a sluggish pace but the Bucs speedy neutral pace should pull a few more plays out of them. There is also the chance that Cooper Kupp doesn’t play his normal compliment of snaps while dealing with an ankle injury.

The Justin Jefferson-Terry McLaurin skinny stack will be a one of my go to’s this week. Jefferson’s matchup is as good as you could ask for. McLaurin’s volume continues to grow to a level more appropriate to his talent level. Hopefully the former can push the latter even further.

The contrarian nature of my primary stack affords me the opportunity to ride the wave at RB and I’m doing so with young backs who have 3 down profiles at great prices. The Colts have a great run defense but seem to be imploding on offense. I like the Patriots chances of controlling this game, giving Stevenson chances to grind out the tough yards and be that goal line hammer. Travis Etienne is becoming the centerpiece of the Jags offense and his matchup versus Raiders is about as good as you could ask for.

As a fantasy manager of multiple Kyler Murray teams I hope he balls out this week but the I’ve been a bit surprised with how many times I’ve heard his name mentioned as a great play this week…and that’s not to say he isn’t – I’ll be running some Kyler stacks this week too but it’s also not lost on me that Kliff Kingsbury is his coach. Between that, the improvements the Seahawks have made on defense and the tendency that these divisional matchups have to underdeliver, I’ll take my chances at this cheap a price point.