| RB | Risk | Reward | |
| Tier 1-Elite RB1 | |||
| RB1 | Christian McCaffrey | The offense isn’t good enough for him to threaten for double digit TDs. | As pointed out by Adam Levitan, his 5 full game pace from last year was higher than Jonathan Taylor’s. Scared money don’t what? |
| RB2 | Jonathan Taylor | A splash of negative TD regression, and a splash of increased freedom for the passing game makes that 1.01 consensus look a little cloudier | A higher passing rate just turns into more targets for Taylor, which hold greater value than a carry. We’re talking about an outlier talent so if anybody can just rip off a few 80 yard runs to remix the math it’s JT. |
| Tier 2-Near Elite RB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB3 | Dalvin Cook | Pure carries at risk and if Kevin O’Connell brings the Rams 2021 pass rate inside the 10 yard line with him, it obviously hurts scoring chances via the ground. | As pointed out by Rich Hribar…more 11 personnel = lighter boxes. Pace upgrade and more targets also figure to be in store. |
| RB4 | Austin Ekeler | The Chargers have given lesser talents than Isaiah Spiller legitimate roles in the backfield in year’s past. Was Ekeler’s GL role last year out of choice or necessity? | Offense and coaching staff completely intact and added a stud 1st round guard to an already good line. If his role remains the same he has one of the higher ceilings in fantasy. |
| Tier 3-High End RB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB5 | D’andre Swift | Added talent nips at his target share. Jamaal Williams’ presence becomes a little more annoying if so. | Continued good offensive vibes after the play calling change coupled with legitimate talent added to the passing game makes for an offensive environment in which not only does Swift get the desirable usage, he get’s to turn said usage into TDs |
| RB6 | Derrick Henry | Passing game usage reverts back to pre 2021 levels and there are too many weeks where he doesn’t rip off his trademark long runs. | The Titans are intentional about continuing to up his usage in the passing game. His 20 targets in 8 games last year are nothing to throw a party over but considering his career high for a season is 31, it’s something to monitor. He remains a cyborg on the ground. |
| RB7 | Joe Mixon | With an improved O-Line comes a higher pass rate, one that cuts into his green zone opportunities as a runner. Continued insistence of subbing him out on 3rd down cuts further into his work. | The run rate holds or doesn’t decrease drastically. Chase’s gravity get’s the Bengals the Cover 2 treatment, equaling softer run looks. Running behind said O-Line and in this offensive environment again puts double digit TDs on the table. |
| RB8 | Najee Harris | Whoever wins this QB job will have a livelier arm than late career Roethlisberger, likely equaling less opportunity in the passing game. Early buzz on the QB front creates doubt on the promise of the offense as whole. Less targets and a questionable offensive environment give me pause. | One of the rare 3 down workhorses in the league and as we know volume is king. The additions made to jump start their zone run game do just that and Harris finds his additional success in the inverse way compared to 2021. |
| RB9 | Aaron Jones | The Packers shift more to a ground and pound approach sans Davante Adams. AJ Dillon starts to grab a more decisive share of the work on the ground. | The pass game and the red zone offense essentially runs through Jones (We’ve all seen the splits w/o Davante). |
| RB10 | Alvin Kamara | His targets seem destined to take a hit but is it more decisive than we think? While I am lowkey excited about this offense I do have to acknowledge that they were the 19th ranked scoring offense, have at least mild O-Line questions and have a QB coming off a torn acl. | Pete Carmichael leans back into the roots of this Saints offense and the environment fosters more scoring chances. |
| Tier 4-High End RB2 w/RB1 potential | Risk | Reward | |
| RB11 | Leonard Fournette | The team decides to find touches for Rachaad White even if he’s not ready in pass pro or as a decision maker with the ball in his hand. | Fournette keeps a handle on majority of the backfield work, making his TD upside amongst the highest in the league. |
| RB12 | Saquon Barkley | His lateral movement and breakaway speed lose steam. The O-Line adds make the unit better but not truly difference making…putting a cap on scoring chances. | He returns to form physically and his role remains the 3 down variety. The new coaching staff improves the offense and maximizes where he gets his touches. Barkley is truly one of the biggest swings you can take in fantasy this year. |
| RB13 | James Conner | I love Conner this year so I struggle to find a risk other than the big picture one that WR’s are a lot safer historically in the range he’s going in drafts. | Eno Benjamin/Darrel Williams don’t take the full Chase Edmonds role leaving Conner to see even more passing game work and benefit from the gravity of Kyler Murray’s legs. |
| RB14 | Javonte Williams | The Broncos play as slow as the Packers do and Melvin Gordon gets too high a share of the high value touches. | A decisive share of the backfield work would give Javonte (Who I’m sure is somewhere breaking a tackle right now) one of the higher ceilings among backs this year. |
| RB15 | Nick Chubb | Brissett can’t do enough to keep the offense on schedule. Already not utilized in the passing game, Chubb’s upside can ill afford a shaky offensive environment. | Makes some sense as the last of the anchor RB’s if going WR or Kelce in the first. If Stefanski can keep the offense on schedule w/o Watson we know the level of pure runner that Chubb is. |
| Tier 5-Mid Tier RB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB16 | Ezekiel Elliott | The O-Line isn’t the slam dunk it used to be. Drafting a back in the “dead zone” that legit could run out of juice is not a comfortable proposition. | Pre-PCL Zeke wasn’t prime Barry Sanders but he did have value. He’ll do the dirty work and get goal line carries and red zone targets. All about how far he slides. |
| RB17 | Travis Etienne | James Robinson proves ready for an early season role and muddies the backfield. Especially if he’s used on 3rd down. | Brian Westbrook usage has been rumored. If so he had 3 seasons where he averaged 7 or more targets per game. Jackpot! |
| RB18 | Cam Akers | McVay bucks his trend under the circumstances and lightens Akers load in an attempt to keep him fresh. Using Darrell Williams as a change of pace and on 3rd down would seem like a natural way to do so. | His talent and surroundings warrant a top 30 pick but the injury questions push him into the “dead zone”. As pointed out by Lawrence Jackson Jr., the Rams under McVay have never seemed motivated to use a committee backfield. |
| RB19 | JK Dobbins | This comes down to unknowns. Will he start the season on a pitch count and if so how long? | If JK’s potential pitch count is short lived and he stands to jump to the front of the pecking order. His adp has already jumped back in a range I’m uncomfortable with but the upside is certainly there. |
| RB20 | Breece Hall | He plays a 2 down ish role on a questionable offense. How valuable is that? | He works into a more decisive share of the 3 down work, the offense makes strides |
| RB21 | David Montgomery | The Bears are on the short list for worst offense in the league. Montgomery likely needs last year’s volume to returning real value. Khalil Herbert has fans. | Montgomery holds off Herbert for workhorse status gets enough catches to combat efficiency and environment concerns. |
| RBB22 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | The Chiefs are testing limits with Isaiah Pacheco right now and Jerrick McKinnon gave them a jolt last year. Ronald Jones looks to be on thin ish ice right now but he was signed liked a priority (for non priority money). This backfield could be messy messy. | Rojo is cut loose, leaving CEH as the lone natural early down back. Pacheco or McKinnon for change of pace/3rd down but not both substantially. He’s at an ADP where if he slides just a smidge more he makes some sense in Hero RB builds. |
| RB23 | Miles Sanders | Well for one thing, Miles Sanders said not to draft him. Secondly, there has been talk of Kenneth Gainwell getting red zone work. Gainwell showed real promise last year when targeted in the pass game. Jordan Howard is also just one phone call away. | Miles Sanders should enter the season as the team’s early down runner and goal line back. Another player who could play half their snaps blindfolded and still score more TDs than he did last year based off opportunity. I like making a talent bet here where Sanders is going. |
| RB24 | Chase Edmonds | Edmonds was a priority for the Dolphins in free agency but they’ve since added to a crowded backfield. There’s a world where Michel cuts into goal line work and Mostert’s tantalizing speed and system familiarity gets him more usage than we’d prefer. | Despite the depth around him, Edmonds seems like the favorite for goal line work and 3rd down work. Those kind of high value touches mixed with the intrigue of what this offense could grow into make him one my favorite euro step “dead zone” targets . |
| RB25 | AJ Dillon | The overall numbers look ok but in 11 of Dillon’s 17 games last season he had 2 or fewer targets. With questions on the O-Line and at WR this offense probably won’t be as good as last year. Leaving the possibility of some empty calorie games if Dillon doesn’t get in the end zone. | Dillon led the team in carries last season and there’s a chance that the gap there is a more decisive one this year. Even with the concerns, an Arod lead offense won’t bottom out offensively, giving Dillon a chance to make hay in the green zone or just rip off long runs against a tired defense in the 4th qtr. if given the runway. |
| Tier 6-Low End RB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB26 | Tony Pollard | His adp is climbing to a point where the ideas we have about his usage as a pure receiver may need to become more of a necessity for him to hit value. | Last year usage holds, Dallas defense takes a step back and none of the ancillary receiving pieces take a leap, leaving Pollard opportunity in the passing game. |
| RB27 | Rhamondre Stevenson | Another potential big time adp climber. The backfield remains to muddied, talk of an expanded role in the passing game doesn’t come to fruition and Damien Harris remains ahead for early down and goal line duties. There’s also this bizarre offensive coaching situation to contend with. | A share of early down and 3rd down work make him appealing. A more decisive portion of either or both make him a priority RB2. |
| RB28 | Rashaad Penny | The team spent a high pick on Ken Walker. Both seemed to be boxed out of 3rd down work. Geno Smith didn’t really target early down RBs in any of his starts and this offense could be really bad. | Ken Walker’s health opens up an early season runway for Penny to dominate carries early. If he picks up where he left off last year he could regulate Walker to a handful of carries per game. If Seattle can find a way to be just good enough to give Penny some scoring chances he could be a quality asset outside of the “dead zone”. |
| RB29 | Damien Harris | He’s a solid yet unspectacular back whose on a deep depth chart where the rest of the group have cost control after this season. There’s also the weird offensive shift that could make his already difficult task of matching last years TDs even harder. | He remains the front end of the committee, the primary goal line back and the Pats figure out enough on offense to stay a respectable offense. With Rhamondre getting the buzz he is, drafting a potentially sliding Harris could return value. |
| RB30 | Dameon Pierce | ADP, ADP, ADP. We’re reaching a point where I wouldn’t be surprised if we start getting blurbs from his pee wee coaches talking him up. He looks to have a significant leg up for early down work but Marlon Mack could have a secondary role. If he does and Pierce is not at least getting a share of the 3rd down work his ceiling may not equal that of the hype. | I think this comes down to Rex Burkhead. He played well when called upon and is a trusted, steady hand. Pierce has shown upside as pass protector and pass catcher too though. A breakout could be incoming. |
| RB31 | Kareem Hunt | 11 games without Watson should equal less scoring chances. The weird “hold in” situation is not something I’m putting much stock in but it’s can’t be completely ignored. | If his normal role stays in tact he’s appealing. If the Browns play in more negative game scripts he’s more appealing. If he gets traded he’s mucho appealing. Sensing a trend here? |
| RB32 | Cordarrelle Patterson | Tyler Allgeier has drawn buzz as a potential lead back in this offense. Late career Matt Ryan may not have been at his MVP level of play but he was still a steady enough hand to keep the offense on respectable ground…the combo of Mariota/Ridder may not. | Drake London was the only substantial add to the Atlanta offense, making it likely they’ll hunt touches for C-Patt again this year…and with the Falcons pretty high up on the “down bad” scale, an ideal amount of those could come via targets. C-Patt is another target that makes the Hero RB strategy so attractive this year. |
| RB33 | Antonio Gibson | What’s the opposite of drum beat? The violin beat continues, he’s already boxed out of the 3rd down role and looks closer to being boxed out of the goal line and short yardage work. A sub package role can’t be ruled out at this point. | Bad blurb after bad blurb could drop Gibson into a worthwhile range. Still a chance Brian Robinson plays a Jaret Patterson plus role and Antonio Gibson talent prevails now that his umm…leg isn’t broken. |
| Tier 7-High End RB3 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB34 | James Cook | Early talk of Zach Moss making this backfield a 3 man group. I’ve long questioned the equivalence being made between what JD McKissic’s role would’ve been and what James Cook’s will be but what if it’s dead on? | A 2nd round RB in the actual NFL draft doesn’t =The modest 3rd down back deal of McKissic and the Bills have more plans for Cook. Even if Zach Moss is involved early I like taking shots on Cook. This team lacked explosion in the run game last year and the minute they get it they may not want to look back. |
| RB35 | James Robinson | The quick return to action begins with an extended pitch count. As we saw with Cam Akers, he may not be the same player early on coming of an Achilles injury. | He’s too good a football player to not play. Much more reliable between the tackles and brings it in pass pro. The avenue to lead the backfield in snaps at some point is there. |
| RB36 | Ken Walker | Early season injury as a rookie + talented runner in front of you = problems | Penny hasn’t been the picture of health and he is only on a 1 year deal. Walker’s injury is likely to cause an early season gap but if he returns early he’s got the talent to close it. Walker’s adp could slide into high end handcuff range, giving him some appeal. |
| Tier 8-Mid to Low End RB3 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB37 | Josh Jacobs | Zamir White early down nibbles turn to full on bites. Too many options as far as 3rd down backs. Antonio Gibson West but worse. | A trade. Unexpected trickle of early down targets. There’s a scenario where they opt not to push Zamir White too early, the offensive environment is better and Jacobs is just fine but it’s difficult to get excited at cost. |
| RB38 | Devin Singletary | James Cook was the obvious one but now it seems as though Zach Moss has gotten an invite to the party. If Moss is grabbing off his plate on early downs and at the goal line and Cook is grabbing off his plate on 3rd down, Singletary is gonna have a lot leaner meal. | Moss disappears from the rotation and Cook is purely a 3rd down compliment. It doesn’t match his late 2021 role but it does have appeal at cost. |
| RB39 | Melvin Gordon | Desire to have Javonte Williams lead this backfield leans him further to high end handcuff then standalone asset. | Something close to last year’s usage rolls over and Javonte does something to lose trust on 3rd down or in the red zone with raised expectations. |
| RB40 | Darrell Henderson | Moving up the premier handcuff ladder, Henderson could end up as a change of pace back only without a regular 3rd down role. A net loss at his rising adp. | McVay breaks character and opts for more of a split considering Akers is still coming off a fairly recent injury. A consistent 3rd down role and a handful of carries a game makes for good value. Any more of a split of early down work starts to ice the cake. |
| RB41 | Nyheim Hines | Pure 3rd down back without a significant added boost of the less mobile Matt Ryan checking down. Still holds value but the upside at cost isn’t great. | I mean, Frank Reich told us to draft him. More check downs and more throws in general would give us what we needed but if he’s legit finding schemed touch opportunities for him we could be looking at a steal. |
| RB42 | Tyler Allgeier | A 5th round rookie with unspectacular measurables who despite buzz has locked into the role people are projecting. Final cut downs could bring a short term upgrade. | He hasn’t jumped to the top of the depth chart yet but outside of C-Patt he’s not dealing with significant competition from a talent prospective. Provided they don’t add anyone he could easily find himself in the role Mike Davis played last year. |
| RB43 | Brian Robinson | Not to say any of what’s transpired with Antonio Gibson is “noise” but there is still a scenario where he’s the clear leader on early downs. | Becomes the primary short yardage early down and short yardage back on a more decisive level. |
| Tier 8-RB4 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB44 | Michael Carter | Breece Hall’s presence obviously blocks his early down potential but if he also cuts into his 3rd down this begins look more like we’re venturing into pure handcuff territory. | As pointed out by the great Matt Waldman, Carter’s skill set as a pass protector and pass catcher is superior to Hall at this stage. With Joe Flacco slated to start the season that probably takes on added importance. Recent talking of him leading the backfield. |
| RB45 | Jamaal Williams | Lots of empty calorie box scores as he doesn’t get a ton of the high value touches and he doesn’t break off long runs. | He goes very late in drafts and his weekly involvement gives you a floor. One of the better handcuffs you could ask for without the price markup. |
| RB46 | Alexander Mattison | The new coaching staff doesn’t view him as the no brainer 3 down handcuff that Zimmer did. | New staff, same role. |
| RB47 | Khalil Herbert | The buzz doesn’t lead to a role valuable enough to match up. | The team becomes less invested in impending free agent David Montgomery. Fit for zone running game the team is said to want to implement. Potentially valuable double digit round pick. |
| RB48 | Rachaad White | Pass pro and patience doesn’t improve and he winds up as a game day inactive or sparingly used backup. | He does carry solid draft capital and the team is aware of his flaws coming in. They may view him as too talented to keep off the field and find a way to get him touches in space. |
| RB49 | Kenneth Gainwell | With the way the Eagles have operated the last couple years we can never rule out a 4th back being added to this group. Also, a run heavy approach wouldn’t be great for Gainwell’s outlook either as his appeal as a pass catcher would take a hit. | The Eagles are a more balanced team leading to some pass catching opportunities for Gainwell. There is talk he’ll be used more in the redzone as well which would obviously be huge. |
| RB50 | Isaiah Pacheco | RoJo and Mckinnon both stick around. Sounds like he’ll have some level of role for sure but one of them being out would make me feel a little more secure. | Becomes the number 2 back and plays some on 3rd down. Could have fireworks with the creativity of Reid and Bienemy. |
| RB51 | Isaiah Spiller | ADP is reflecting the appeal of Spiller, clouding the value proposition. There is also the buzz that Joshua Kelley is running clearly ahead of him right now. While I don’t expect that to hold it does give me pause. | The most talented breather back the Chargers have had in recent seasons. They’ve given less talented players legitimate roles. Even Ekeler doesn’t want a workhorse load. |
| RB52 | Tyrion Davis-Price | It’s Kyle Shanahan so his role could range from healthy inactive to 80% of the RB touches. | The wide range of outcomes is what makes it appealing late. Especially because he’s not getting the same level of buzz he got a few weeks ago. With his running style and pass pro chops I could see him carving out a legit role. |
| Tier 9-RB5 | Risk | Reward | |
| RB53 | Eno Benjamin | Early buzz gets undone by preseason or early season struggles. Cards opt for the trustworthy vet in Darrel Williams or look elsewhere. | Early buzz leads to a Chase Edmond like role. |
| RB54 | Raheem Mostert | Mostert plays a pure change of pace role and struggles to find standalone value. | Mostert carves out an every week role and is the primary handcuff to Chase Edmonds OR the less likely but rosier projection…Mike McDaniel pulls his Shanahan-nigins and Mostert supplant Edmonds as the lead guy while Edmonds plays more of his Arizona role. |
| RB55 | Mark Ingram | Alvin Kamara looks unlikely to be suspended this season so that crosses off one selling point for Ingram. The team has flirted with veteran backs in recent weeks, was that to brace for a Kamara suspension or to add another look to the room? | Ingram still has gas in the tank and the team puts him in a role more reminiscent of his 1st tenure in New Orleans. |
| RB56 | Zamir White | Remains too many cooks in the kitchen. | Jumps or at least gets on equal footing as Jacobs as an early down hammer. Improving offense would give him ample GL chances. |
| RB57 | Jerrick McKinnon | ISAIAH PACHECO | The disinterest in a pass catching role for CEH continues and Pacheco isn’t ready on for 3rd down role. |
| RB58 | JD Mckissic | Nyheim Hines saw his targets per game drop from 4.75 to 3.35 going from Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz. | Mckissic falls through the cracks in drafts. He was never going to match his 2020 numbers last year because the playing wouldn’t be there but he was more efficient in 2021 and he does have a secure role. Could have some value if you’re trying to piece together your RB2/depth. |
| RB59 | Rex Burkhead | Texans show at least some level of trust in Pierce on 3rd downs. | Burkhead occupies a 3rd down plus role on a team that figures to trail a lot more than they lead. |
| RB60 | Ronald Jones | A release sounds squarely on the table for RoJo. | A release where he can latch on somewhere like Atlanta or Arizona might be best. There is a scenario, albeit unlikely where hangs around and the team sours on CEH on early downs. Am I just trying to hang on? |
| RB61 | Marlon Mack | The Pierce buzz is legitimate and Rex Burkhead gobbles up the 3rd down work. | Texans don’t hand the keys to Pierce from the outset. Mack shows some post injury juice in a 2 down role. |
| RB62 | Samaje Perine | Chris Evans jumps him for the 3rd down role (please) | Coaches often go trust over talent. Perine stays in the trust tree. |
| RB63 | Jaylen Warren | Anthony Mcfarland jumps him at some point or makes it a committee if Najee misses time. | Looks like he’s jumped Benny Snell for the RB2 role. |
| RB64 | Ameer Abdullah | Drake is out of the picture but other 3rd down options still in house | Keeps hold of the 3rd down role…a spot that has carried annual value in McDaniels’ offenses. |
| RB65 | Zach Moss | This 3 back committee talk is a mirage or it starts off that way and James Cook give the backfield too much juice to split 3 ways. | He’s seemingly worked himself back into the picture. If Moss can get change of pace and goal line role he was initially ticketed for as a rookie he’s got appeal. |
| RB66 | Gus Edwards | The Ravens have been very non committal with his timeline for return. Depending on what the plan is to ramp him back up once he does come off the pup list, you could be clogging up a roster spot for a few weeks or more. | Because he’s on the pup list you should be able to place him on IR. You can draft him very late or pick him up post draft at this point. If he returns to his role of the past at some point this season you’re getting a 9th round value for free. |
| RB67 | Dontrel Hilliard | Not a high volume target role to begin with…Henry siphons off a little. | Primary 3rd down back and Hassan Haskins doesn’t look ready to be an early down contributor yet. |
| RB68 | Chris Evans | Perine remains ole reliable for the coaching staff. | Evans leaps him for a 3rd down role. Gets into that upper handcuff tier. |
| RB69 | Donta Foreman | Clogs roster for only a split role if CMC goes down. | Plays a grinder short yardage role behind CMC and Rhule makes it clear he’s fighting for his head coaching job one carry at a time. |
| RB70 | Ke’Shawn Vaughn | Rachaad White’s pass pro and decision making as a runner takes strides…or they just view him as player too talented in space to shelve. | A favorite dart throw RB of mine. Much more stylistically inclined to fit as a runner behind Fournette. |
| RB71 | Matt Breida | The most talented backup RB they have now but maybe that changes after cut downs. | Carves out a change of pace role and becomes Saquon’s primary handcuff |
| RB72 | Benny Snell | Anthony McFarland, probably the most talented backup on the roster, jumps him in the pecking order | Remains the primary backup/handcuff |
| RB73 | Dernest Johnson | Nothing happens with Hunt and you’re clogging a roster spot. | Hunt is moved and now you have a premier handcuff for free. |
Carey’s 2022 Fantasy QB Tiers
| Tier 1-Elite QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB1 | Josh Allen | New OC opts to run the football a little more. The Bills did add a 2nd round RB, signed a blocking TE and have the highest projected win total in the AFC. | Pass rate holds and added juice (Cook, Gabe D and McKenzie in expanded roles) leads to more big plays. |
| QB2 | Lamar Jackson | OL adds don’t stabilize the unit. WR2 becomes worrisome. | Clean pocket + game breaking ability = QB1 Overall potential |
| QB3 | Kyler Murray | Pass offense continues to show limitations. Dhop to miss first 6 games. | Downfield connection w/Hollywood re-establishes. Rondale Moore role grows. Another player with QB1 overall upside. |
| QB4 | Patrick Mahomes | Predominant 2 high safety looks continue and the Chiefs get intentional about a move towards a smidge more balance. | Improved offenses within the division matched with a Chiefs defense that should take a step back could make the shoot outs flow |
| QB5 | Justin Herbert | Significant defensive upgrades coupled with the best breather back they’ve had in recent years in Spiller could mean they take their foot off the gas more often. | Top 5 OL in adjusted sack rate added a 1st round Guard. Hopefully influences already attractive pass rate to include more deep shots. |
| Tier 2-High End QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB6 | Jalen Hurts | His ability to win from the pocket doesn’t progress and he’s not buoyed by rushing TDs. Rushing will make him viable regardless but with higher ADP comes higher expectations. | 2021’s original plan of running their offense through Hurts comes to fruition…this time more efficiently with AJ Brown in the fold and behind a standout O-Line |
| QB7 | Tom Brady | Father time takes his biggest swing and finally connects. | Stocked with weapons galore, Brady keeps full autonomy of the offenses direction…P.S. He will |
| QB8 | Russell Wilson | The Broncos play slow and his already declining rushing production goes from a brisk walk to a crawl. | Operation #LetRussCook becomes more than just a tag line |
| QB9 | Trey Lance | He’s erratic as a passer and the 49ers move towards a run rate that would cap his ceiling unless he’s especially efficient in the redzone or gets a large share of big plays. | He has enough freedom within the offense to maximize his arm talent and off script upside. Closest thing we have to a LRQB with league winning upside. |
| Tier 3-Potential High End QB1 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB10 | Joe Burrow | ADP jump from last year makes it harder for him to return value. No guarantee that pass rate jumps. Tough fantasy playoff schedule and little rushing upside as pointed out by Rich Hribar. | O-Line reinforcements lead Zac Taylor to raise the Bengals middling pass rate numbers. Burrow could put up silly numbers if they just totally cut him loose. |
| QB11 | Dak Prescott | The rushing attempts don’t return, Gallup’s return is drawn out and an O-Line suddenly with questions doesn’t have enough answers. | Hamstring issues are behind him and the promise of more rush attempts comes to fruition. CeeDee Lamb jumps into superstardom, Jalen Tolbert proves snap worthy |
| QB12 | Matt Stafford | A lot of the same concerns as Burrow…and, well..the elbow. Do they subtlety take pass attempts off his plate throughout the year? | Pass rate in the redzone holds, overall pass rate raises as they contend with the NFL’s 2nd hardest schedule per Sharp Football. |
| Tier 4-Potential QB1’s | Risk | Reward | |
| QB13 | Derek Carr | Brandon Thorn’s 27th ranked O-Line doesn’t allow for consistent intermediate and deep passing success. Necessitating a more quick hitting, conservative script w/more runs. | Josh McDaniels brings back the league leading pace from his days with Tom Brady. Davante Adams improves their redzone efficiency. Combining that with the strength of the division and the pass attempts should be plentiful. |
| QB14 | Kirk Cousins | As efficient as he was last year he still “only” got to QB11 in ppg…which is fine but if you’re trying to win your league we need more. More plays/volume will be a must. | Transitioning from the fun opposed Mike Zimmer. Cousins has one of the better cast of skill players in the league and should see increased pace. Breaking into the 3rd tier is not out of the question. |
| QB15 | Aaron Rodgers | No Adams, O-Line questions, an already slow paced team and an emerging defense sound like the ingredients to run the ball soup. | If anybody can efficiently throw for 40 TDs despite all this it’s Arod. |
| Tier 5-Priority LRQB | Risk | Reward | |
| QB16 | Justin Fields | Talks of a run first approach coupled with a questionable O-Line and set of weapons lead to an environment too negative to bare fruit. | His legs, big arm and hopefully a more QB friendly script make the offense effective enough for him to tap into his promise as the highest upside double digit round QB. |
| QB17 | Trevor Lawrence | While the team made clear improvements to their pass catchers, they didn’t add anything close to a blue chipper. Hard to see them not improving but there’s a chance the numbers are closer to pedestrian than breakout. | A once in a decade QB prospect looks like it with competent coaching. |
| Tier 6-High to Mid QB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB18 | Daniel Jones | It wasn’t the lack of stability around him, it was him. He doesn’t get through the year as starter. | The massive coaching upgrade does the trick. He has the weapons, an improved O-Line, rushing potential and optimal offensive approach to score fantasy points. |
| QB19 | Tua Tagovailoa | The limitations of the pass offense last year are more on Tua than the past coaching…leading to less and less balance. | Mcdaniel brings the design, Tyreek and company bring the yac magic. The pocket poise he flashed at Alabama allows for a smoother transition than many expect. |
| QB20 | Jared Goff | Never known as an elevator of talent, doesn’t add rushing production. Good TD to Int ratio in the red zone but less than half the attempts Tom Brady had in that part of the field last year. | A healthy skill group with explosive new additions give him a chance to be the distributor he was for the Rams. Pass rate at least holds and he gains a little red zone freedom. |
| QB21 | Mac Jones | Even though BB locked up McVay’s offense in the Super Bowl he couldn’t piece together enough of his rehires to run it effectively for his own team. The Shanahan’s out of 2nd cousins? | Still void of true table setters on offense but they have made upgrades. Reportedly the Pats hope for an easier to digest offense, hopefully it’s one that flows more through Jones. The pathway to surprise is there. |
| QB22 | Jameis Winston | Pass rates resemble last year. Michael Thomas doesn’t resemble his pre injury self. | Talk of a more spread, aggressive passing offense comes through. Jameis with deep passing freedom has always equaled an intriguing ceiling. |
| QB23 | Carson Wentz | Bad Carson makes him barely bye week worthy | A good group of skill players and a more than solid coordinator tap into good Carson. He still has some mobility and downfield throwing ability. Factors that could unearth fantasy production, |
| Tier 7-Low End QB2 | Risk | Reward | |
| QB24 | Ryan Tannehill | Worst weapons of his Titans tenure accelerate his decline. The gravity of Malik Willis’ athleticism starts to look appealing. | Tannehil has a 104.7 career passer rating with Derrick Henry. The pure stats won’t be gaudy but if Henry stays healthy he could return solid QB value. |
| QB25 | Davis Mills | Dameon Pierce hot guy summer extends it’s way to the fall…allows the Texans to hang in a few more games and they don’t have to push the envelope in the passing game as much. Mills in turn gives you the floor performances you’d rather just stream for. | The NFL’s 5th hardest schedule per Sharp Football and a roster that still needs some talent infusions to truly compete could lead to a healthy amount of pass attempts. |
| QB26 | Matt Ryan | There are some Philip Rivers 2020 caretaker vibes here. The preseason talk of balance becomes just that and we get efficient but pedestrian fantasy performances. | Nyheim Hines is actually a thing. So is Mo Alie-Cox (You heard it here first). It’s still Jonathan Taylor’s offense but maybe pass attempts inside the 20 raise with a steadier hand at QB. Upside still probably tops out as a QB2. |
| Tier 8-Watchlist | Risk | Reward | |
| QB27 | Marcus Mariota | The season gets away from the Falcons and his play is strong to not get a look at Desmond Ridder before they have to make a 2023 QB decision. | Mobility, play action, a couple high end young pass catchers and negative game script lead to some useful box score games. Kinda wanna slide him into tier 7. |
| QB28 | Baker Mayfield | Last year’s struggles were more about his flaws than his shoulder. With Rhule on the hotseat the patience isn’t there and he’s pulled in season. | He brings stability to a position, the O-Line additions prove to be legit and Ben McAdoo is able to implement the tempo he utilized in previous spots. If the team isn’t looking to be completely run obsessed sans Joe Brady, Baker could put together some QB2 appeal. |
| QB29 | Kenny Pickett | He’s not named the opening game starter and Trubisky plays well enough up until their bye to hold him off. | Pickett seems to be gaining steam late in the process. He’s got plenty of skill position weapons and a scheme conducive with creating free releases and allowing a QB to distribute. |
| QB30 | Zach Wilson | Continued uneven play. Considering the investment I don’t think he’d lose his job but we can’t say it with 100% certainty. | The Jets should have the best O-Line they’ve had in a while. You can say the same thing for their skill group as well. Wilson has rushing upside and was an aggressive thrower in college. |
| QB31 | Mitchell Trubisky | 1st rounder Kenny Pickett progresses and takes over the job in season | Armed with a very good cast of skill players, Trubisky efficiently distributes the ball to his playmakers and adds 30 ish rushing yards per game. |
| QB32 | Deshaun Watson | 11 games is a long time to hold anybody, even if they are a difference maker. | You have a bench deep enough to stash him. Not recommended for standard 15-16 man rosters. |
| QB33 | Geno Smith | The Seahawks opt to crawl even deeper into the cave, pass attempts are few and far between. | The plan to establish it at all costs are nixed because the team isn’t good enough to play ball control. Geno get’s his shot at a few QB2 performances in come from behind mode. |
| QB34 | Jacoby Brissett | He’s tasked with being a caretaker in a run centric offense and he doesn’t have enough green zone equity to challenge for QB2 status. | The team keeps their plan of a more spread/balance approach despite the Watson suspension. He gets a chance at a couple QB2 ish performances in. |
| QB34 | Joe Flacco | He clogs up an early season roster spot with non useable performances. | Zach Wilson’s recovery goes a little longer than expected and Flacco plays too well to send back to the bench. Even if Joe balls out this is unlikely due to the draft capital invested but it’s a non zero chance. |
| QB35 | Jimmy Garoppolo | Nobody feels comfortable enough with his health and the 49ers don’t release him. | A QB goes down elsewhere and spurs a trade to better spot than we currently anticipate or he’s granted his release outright and lands in Seattle. |
| QB36 | Malik Willis | Roster clog | Titans start slow and look for a jolt of athleticism. Deep stash in 2 QB/superflex. |
Ravens 2016 Draft Class: CB Tavon Young
I’ve heard a lot of chatter about this year’s draft class from local Baltimore sports media since the draft concluded. Most of it has been negative.
Some have said the Ravens drafted scared, some said Ozzie lost his nerve and others said they didn’t select playmakers.
I couldn’t disagree more! I really like this class and want to do a few post highlighting just how good this class has the potential to be.
Let’s start with CB Tavon Young. People will question his size and durability, but I see a fast, physical, smart corner who could see a lot of snaps this year.
Most project Young as a slot corner. I think he’ll excel in the slot because of his change of direction (COD) skills. This play versus Will Fuller is a good example.
This is a double move and Young initially starts to drive towards the out cut by Fuller. But once Young recognizes the double move, he is able to flip his hips outside in essentially one step. He then sprints back, gets his eyes on Fuller, then tracks the ball and high points it for the pass break up (PBU).
Young displays several skills on this play that NFL corners must have. He’s beat initially but has the COD and speed to recover. He stays PATIENT and works to get back in position to make a play on the ball.
Time will tell how good Young will be but I caution anyone who pre-judges him based on his size alone.
2016 Draft Prospects – Noah Spence 5 of 5
This is the last post in my draft preview of edge rusher prospect Noah Spence. I wanted to show you a couple of clips of issues in Spence’s game that are concerning to me.
My first issue is with his functional strength or what I like to call play strength. There were a couple of plays against the run where Spence was driven back by tight ends.
This play is from a 2013 game versus Wisconsin. Spence was a freshman in this game so I took that into account.
Spence initially gets his hands inside of the TE’s hands but on contact the TE stands him up, drives Spence back and ultimately into the ground. Again, he was a freshman in this game and has most likely gotten stronger since then.
These next 2 plays show the issue that concerns me the most about Spence. He shows a tendency to jog behind plays.
The first play is from the 2015 game versus N.C. State, but if you watch Spence’s games on DraftBreakdown you can see him jogging behind plays somewhat regularly.
After the QB scrambles to his right, the other EKU defenders slowed him down enough for Spence to make a play from behind but he’s jogging behind the play.
This next play is from a 2015 game versus Kentucky.
If you have any doubt about Spence’s (#9 rushing against LT # 74) lack of hustle on this play, watch the EKU defender who blitzes up the middle, falls down, gets back up and sprints to get back in the play.
Overall, I like Spence as a prospect. I think he displays the traits you want to see in an edge rusher. He has a good first step, is flexible enough to bend the edge, uses his hands pretty well and has an inside counter move.
I think he has a few technique issues that are correctable but I am concerned about his propensity not to hustle behind plays.
2016 Draft Prospects – Noah Spence 4 of 5
Where I’d like to see More
There are a few skills that I didn’t see Spence display consistently including: using his hands to disengage from blockers, transferring speed to power and keeping his pad level low.
Here are some examples where he did display these skills:
Once an NFL position coach is able to work with Spence on a daily basis I believe he’ll be able to develop these skills further and learn to use them more consistently.
Areas of Concern
In my next post, I’ll share some plays that show areas where I think Spence will need to improve. The games I watched raised some concerns including:
- Spence’s play strength
- His ability to diagnosis plays quickly
- A tendency to raise his pad level on contact, and
- A propensity to jog behind plays that go away from him.2016
2016 Draft Prospect – Noah Spence 3 of 5
Spence shows the ability to be a good run defender.
The following plays are examples of how he uses his quickness to beat blocks and plays with correct leverage:
In the next post, I’ll take about some areas of concern that I have about Spence’s game.
2016 Draft Prospects – Noah Spence 2 of 5
In the first post I shared some plays that show how explosive Spence is rushing off the edge.
Spence also uses a nice inside counter move to compliment his outside speed rush.
I would like to see Spence use his inside counter more because when he did use it, it was really effective. He threatens tackles outside with his speed rush so much that they tend to overset him and that leaves them vulnerable to a quick inside move.
In the next post, we’ll look at Spence as a run defender.
2016 Draft Prospects – Noah Spence 1 of 5
This is the first in what I’m hoping will be a series of posts on players I like in the upcoming draft. I’m not going to get into what round these players should be drafted in. I’m more interested in analyzing their skills and traits to see how they project to the NFL and more specifically the Baltimore Ravens.
To put it mildly, this has been a down year for the Ravens. They’ve been hit hard by injuries and have generally not played well. The Ravens are not in playoff contention and Coach Harbaugh has recently talked about the last three games of this season being the “jumping off” point for the 2016 season.
As we look towards the 2016 draft, the Ravens have a ton of needs. You can make a case for several position groups including: wide receiver, defensive back, and offensive line. But in my opinion, upgrading the pass rush should be the top off season priority.
One of the most intriguing pass rushers in this years draft is Noah Spence of Eastern Kentucky University (EKU). Spence was recently named an FCS All-America after a tremendous season in which he registered 22.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, and 63 tackles (31 solo). You can read more about his All-America selection and other season stats here: http://www.wkyt.com/sports/headlines/Noah-Spence-picks-up–362959131.html
Spence began his college football career at Ohio State but transferred to Eastern Kentucky after his sophomore season. If you haven’t read about his off-field issues, they’ve been well documented. This FoxSports.com report is a very revealing look into Spence’s off-field struggles: http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/ohio-state-buckeyes-noah-spence-dl-eastern-kentucky-colonels-ecstasy-addiction-comeback-102015
I can’t speak to his character, but I do believe in second chances. What I can speak to is his play on the field, so let’s dive into it. Thanks to the amazing work of the team at draftbreakdown.com, I was able to watch 7 of Spence’s games (4 from 2013 while he was at OSU and 3 from this year’s EKU team).
Where Spence wins
Spence (# 9 for EKU and # 8 for OSU) shows the ability to explode off the edge.
Nice dip-n-rip move
Good low pad level
Shows speed & power
Here’s a still shot that shows just how low Spence can get when bending the corner around an offensive tackle.
Notice how he’s almost on one knee and his shoulders are square to the QB? When Spence gets in this position, theres nothing the tackle can do.
In the next post, I’ll look at the insider counter move Spence uses as a compliment to his outside speed rush.
Lockett’s 1st TD
I know I haven’t written a post in a long time but what can I say, life stuff. Anyway, I want to try and get back in the groove, so let’s go.
I’m confused to what kind of coverage the Ravens are playing on Lockett’s first quarter 8 yard TD catch.
Lewis and Webb are the safeties and make it look like a 2 deep concept. Wright and Arrington are in the slot aligned over Baldwin and Lockett.
Wright passess Baldwin’s crossing route off to Webb, then I get confused. After passing Baldwin off, Wright drops in between Lewis and Webb. Is he playing some sort of zone robber concept? Arrington makes contact with Lockett initially, but then let’s him go when Lockett runs a crossing route behind the route Baldwin ran.
Arrington collides with Lewis, Lockett gets behind Wright and Webb is covering Baldwin. This leaves Lockett all alone in the end zone for an easy TD.
Can anyone out there help me understand what’s going on here?
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The 49ers offense is powerfully simple
Link to my latest film breakdown leading up to the Ravens vs. 49ers game on Sunday:
http://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/2015/10/16/9554237/the-49ers-offense-is-powerfully-simple
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