fantasy football

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Tommy DeVito at New Orleans DraftKings salary: 5,000

RB: Bijan Robinson at Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,800

RB: Kyren Williams vs. Washington DraftKings salary: 7,500

WR: Mike Evans at Green Bay DraftKings salary: 7,500

WR: Jayden Reed vs. Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 4,900

WR: Deebo Samuel at Arizona DraftKings salary: 7,700

TE: Darren Waller at New Orleans DraftKings salary: 4,400

FLEX: Michael Wilson vs. San Francisco DraftKings salary: 3,300

DST: Jets D/ST at Miami DraftKings salary: 2,500

Reasoning: It’s hard to get really excited about many QB plays on this slate, and the few that you can? so is everybody else. I’ll be rocking with the field on Matthew Stafford and Brock Purdy but you didn’t come here to hear about the same ole guys everybody else is propping up, now did you?

In a week where none of us really want to commit to a 1 pm game, Giants-Saints intrigues me. A dome game where both offenses play at an elevated pace, Tommy DeVito has room to keep his feel good story going. This heavy man Saints defense has given up the 3rd most rushing yards to QBs, no doubt a welcome sight for Brian Daboll. Per Fantasylife.com, the “sneaky” (hehe) athletic DeVito has 18% and 14% of the Giants designed rush attempts over their last 2 games. On the passing side of things, the Saints are down 2 starters in the secondary and have middling at best pressure numbers. At just 5K and a rushing floor in the tuck, i like Devito’s chance of returning real value, with room for more if the environment permits. His stacking partner carries risk as well but the reward outweighs it. His health and playing time are a concerns but if they weren’t he’d be the best TE play on this slate. The last time we saw a full game from Darren Waller it was with Devito in a game where put up a 7-98-1 line on a 30% target share. He also represents a nice pivot on a popular 3,700 Wan’dale Robinson. A player who had a 9% target share in Waller’s last full game.

I like taking care of the onesies positions in a correlated way on the cheap, especially when i don’t feel like I’m full on punting. I’ll play with different run back variations once Chris Olave’s status is clear but for now it’s tough to pinpoint.

With my contrarian primary stack to start, i can afford to move without restrictions with my RB selections. Kyren Williams’ usage makes any non CMC back envious, and like CMC..makes him pretty matchup proof. Bijan Robinson on the other hand has maybe THE running back matchup as nobody has surrendered more TDs to the position…and with 3 carries inside the 5 yard line last week per Hayden Winks, Bijan looks to be in great position to take advantage.

The skinny stack of Mike Evans and Jayden Reed will be popular but for good reason. With Christian Watson doubtful to play (sigh), Reed will have no issue running enough routes to flirt with double digit targets. He also gets a slot matchup versus Tampa Bay that has been lucrative this season. Mike Evans had a quiet week last week because of the bracket coverage he received, making him an auto play for me if people are scared off a bit. The field has gotten a lot better at avoiding those kind of mistakes but he’ll certainly be less popular than he would if he put up 150 yards and 2 TDs. Anytime you can get a player in your lineup with his ceiling at discounted rostership. You take it.

My other skinny stack starts with a coin flip play. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk will factor heavily in what I’m doing this week and i’ll likely have variations of this lineup with both guys but because I don’t have CMC or Purdy in this lineup…Deebo feels like the player that could theoretically take away from CMC on the ground and take away from Purdy in the air with his rushing upside. Michael Wilson is a cheap, correlated run back who put up a 7-76-2 line in the 1st matchup between these 2 teams. The 49ers may be without starting corner Charvarius Ward, a potential added boost in a game that where drop backs will probably trend up for Arizona facing this high powered 49ers offense.

Closing this one out with the Jets defense facing a super banged Dolphins offense. Nearly every starter along their offensive line is either out or has a chance to miss the game while the engine of their offense, Tyreek Hill is a true game time decision. Rookie phenom Devon Achane is also questionable. It’s a no brainer play if those main guys miss but even if they don’t, the Jets have an outstanding pass defense and held Tua Tagovailoa to 243 yards passing, 1 TD and 2 interceptions in their week 12 matchup. They will no doubt carry some popularity at their price but it may be muted a bit if Tyreek and Achane are in. Either way we’ve gotten different enough to afford it with our start.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Lamar Jackson vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 7,700

RB: Christian McCaffrey vs. Seattle DraftKings salary: 9,200

RB: Zack Moss at Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 5,900

WR: Davante Adams vs. Minnesota DraftKings salary: 7,500

WR: Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 3,800

WR: DJ Moore vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 6,500

TE: Brycen Hopkins at Baltimore DraftKings salary: 2,500

FLEX: Jaxon Smith-Njigba at San Francisco DraftKings salary: 4,100

DST: Broncos DST vs. Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary: 2,800

Reasoning: Sounds like people are gravitating to Brock Purdy & Jake Browning (Not a typo), and if they decide to pay up they are more inclined to do so with Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. Pivoting to a player with arguably a higher ceiling than any of them gives me a cozy contrarian start. While Rams DC Raheem Morris has done a masterful job raising this roster to middle, they aren’t a unit to fear and have one of the lower pressure rates in the league. They’ve also allowed the 5th most rushing attempts and 2nd most rushing attempts to QBs.

OBJ stands out as my favorite value this week. At only 3,800 he has a 40% target per route run rate in back to back games. The team already went out of their way once to get him a TD late in a blowout…i can’t imagine a game versus his former team not eliciting similar motivation. I gave thought to double stacking with inexpensive and probably popular TE Isaiah Likely, but with a strong run game and so many pass catchers involved it felt like a good opportunity to pivot and correlate at the same time. My thinking on how this plays out with Tyler Higbee doubtful is that Hunter Long will be used to block versus these Ravens pressure packages and Davis Allen will continue to see the lion share of work on special teams…leaving Brycen Hopkins to absorb a solid chunk of Tyler Higbee’s routes. At the minimum price I’ll gladly take my 4 catches for 40 yards and go…but more would be nice 🙂

I won’t be riding the Purdy wave this week to the same degree as everybody, maybe not even at all…but i will be getting to San Francisco plenty. There’s no better place to start than the engine of their offense in CMC. He’s matchup proof but the Seahawks giving up the 5th most DK points per game and 5th most RB receptions certainly makes me feel better. Running it back with JSN isn’t reinventing the wheel but Geno Smith’s pregame focus of getting the ball out quicker led to a season high 11 targets for Smith-Njigba. In a game where the 49ers will put up points and sport a fire pass rush since the Chase Young trade, JSN should at least get his compile on.

There is too much good content and information out there now for people to get scared off Zack Moss after last week’s down game. This may sound like hyperbole but his role is the envy of all his peers and the matchup is sweet as the Bengals defense has fallen off the wagon. Even with a price bump, Moss is still probably at least $1,000 too cheap.

Mike Evans and Ja’Marr Chase will draw more interest at this price point but Davante Adams is a pivot to get excited about. The Vikings have a legit good run defense and with their All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson returning, I think they’ll put up points on this Raiders defense. Even with Las Vegas’ run heavy ways since Josh McDaniels got the boot…Adams still has 40 targets in 4 games. We know Brian Flores is dreaming of the blitzes he’s going to dial up against a rookie signal caller and as the good folks over at one week season pointed out, Adams leads the league in target share versus the blitz.

Going right back to attacking the Chargers offense this week. Everyone is always looking for a cheap defense so I’m stunned that more people aren’t on a Broncos defense that has basically tightened up since giving up that 70 piece to the Dolphins while i could find more points in my couch cushions then the Chargers have scored the last 2 weeks. The same issues exist and Josh Palmer won’t be back to give them another competent piece in their receiver corps. It’s a pretty easy play.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Bryce Young at Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 4,900

RB: David Montgomery at New Orleans DraftKings salary: 6,500

RB: Zack Moss at Titans DraftKings salary: 4,600

WR: Tyreek Hill at Washington DraftKings salary: 9,600

WR: Adam Thielen at Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 6,600

WR: Deebo Samuel at Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 6,200

TE: Stephen Sullivan at Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 2,500

FLEX: Rachaad White vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,800

DST: Patriots DST vs. Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary: 2,400

Reasoning: Looking at my QB play you may be thinking the long season is starting to get to me, and you’re partially right but on a slate where the pay up’s aren’t slam dunks and some of the good plays have ceiling questions…i like the idea of experimenting with the variance of this situation. With Frank Reich gone and the combination of Thomas Brown and Jim Caldwell leading the way, i think we see modern finishes and a stabilization of this offense. It’s no guarantee but it’s certainly possible we see a lot more motion, a higher pass rate matching the weakness of the opponent, a boost in pace and more rubs to get Jonathan Mingo yards after the catch opportunities. They land in a great matchup versus a banged up Bucs pass defense giving up the 8th most yards per completion. Adam Thielen is the obvious 1st stacking partner is a tremendous slot matchup and his price has dropped to a that doesn’t make you full wince. With injuries to Hayden Hurst and Tommy Tremble both likely to miss this game, Stephen Sullivan should run at least 60+% of the routes against a Tampa Bay team that has allowed the 3rd most targets to the position and will be without inside linebacker Lavonte David.

I thought briefly about running it back with Mike Evans and Rachaad White but i look at the 37 game total again and thought better of it. Rachaad won out based upon the beautiful matchup on the ground.

The Zack Moss play doesn’t require much elaboration…I’ll be playing a couple non Moss lineups just to have that potential field edge at my disposal but he’s such a great play that i won’t be getting too cute.

Montgomery fills my priority for Lions exposure…they are tied for the highest team total on the slate and all their pieces are falling under the radar this week. With a negative script to the degree it was for them on Thanksgiving unlikely, Montgomery is set up for a shot at 20 carries and multiple goal line opportunities.

Another pretty self explanatory play, Tyreek Hill is on a scorching pace and gets a Commanders defense that just fired their DC. While the Dolphins as a whole haven’t lived up to the greatest show on surf standard they started the season off with…Tyreek is too good and utilized to ideally to see him fail in this spot.

Deebo is an interesting entrance point to this Eagles-49ers NFC supremacy game. Yes he fits in stacks with the likely popular Brock Purdy, he can act as leverage on Purdy and CMC because of his involvement in the run game and with both teams having strong offenses and strong traditional run defenses, his passing game volume could peak a bit as well. In a perfect world he gobbles up 8 to 10 targets and punches in a couple red zone rushing scores.

It’s slim pickings on cheap defenses this week but i like betting on the Chargers traveling across country to put Brandon Staley out of his misery. This offense was in desperate need of juice coming into the season and with a banged up skill group, including Keenan Allen…it’s somehow gotten worse. Austin Ekeler looks a step slower and Quentin Johnston just isn’t ready to impact NFL games. This game feels destined to be played in the teens.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Desmond Ridder at Falcons DraftKings salary: 4,800

RB: Isiah Pacheco DraftKings salary: 6,200

RB: Kyren Williams at Arizona DraftKings salary: 6,600

WR: Mike Evans at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 7,400

WR: Drake London vs. New Orleans DraftKings salary: 5,000

WR: Rashid Shaheed at Atlanta DraftKings salary: 4,300

TE: Taysom Hill at Atlanta DraftKings salary: 5,000

FLEX: Michael Pittman vs. Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 6,800

DST: Steelers DST vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 3,700

Reasoning: I felt like i had to go through this slate with gloves because of the amount of games i just didn’t want to touch…many will congregate around Jags/Texans and Bills/Eagles, and rightfully so, but you could get analysis of those games anywhere…You know how i get down though, so ride with me on this scenic route.

Falcons/Saints features a bunch of fantasy relevant plays and interesting opportunities in a dome game where both defenses are in the bottom 10 in sack percentage. Derek Carr doesn’t offer enough upside run this from the Saints side while Desmond Ridder’s price, rushing upside and likely lower rostership make him a very interesting boom/bust play in large field. The Saints are a one of the man heavy defense and have given up the 3rd most rushing yards to QB this year. Ridder averaged 3 designed rush attempts during his last 3 starts per fantasylife.com and has 4 rushing scores on the season. In that same 3 game sample, Drake London had target shares of 25%, 27% and 27% and gets a Marshon Lattimore free matchup. I thought briefly about double stacking but i just wasn’t compelled enough with Kyle Pitts’ opportunity to go away from one of my run backs…

Taysom Hill took a step back last week usage wise but it wasn’t a big one and it probably had more to do with their 24-3 deficit then anything else. While he only had one carry he was still involved in the passing game with 4 targets. With Michael Thomas now on IR i expect Taysom to jump right back into usage that will have analysts propping him back up as a top 8 TE option the rest of the way.

Because we’re pivoting away from Bijan Robinson in this lineup i felt like i needed a bit more of reinforcements on the New Orleans side to pump up Ridder’s amount of drop backs. Rashid Rasheed’s playing time started to trend down in recent weeks but with Michael Thomas leaving the Saints last game due to injury, Shaheed jumped back up to 81% of routes. At price he offers upside in a zone heavy matchup.

The Chiefs have underwhelmed a bit from a point scoring aspect but they are in a nice bounce back spot versus a Raiders defense that will likely be without their one difference maker on that side of the ball in Maxx Crosby. Isiah Pacheco has dominated the RB carries for majority of the season so i love tapping to that on offenses we expect to score but with 3rd down back Jerick McKinnon slated to miss this game, his upside hits a little different. McKinnon essentially plays every long and down and distance snap, so while it would be too much to ask for Pacheco to absorb all of that too…he should absorb some of it, raising his ppr appeal.

Kyren Williams is a bit of a leap of faith but we’re seeing more and more that RBs are walking right back into lead roles after extended absences. The combination of Royce Freeman/Darrell Henderson did nothing to convince the Rams coaching they have the room to wait so even if he doesn’t have the full on bellcow role he had before he went down, I expect him to get plenty of touch opportunities versus a Cardinals defense that gives up the 3rd most DK points per game to RBs.

My first instinct when i paid down at QB was to go all the way up WR. I’ll probably do that in some different variations but for this build i decided to skinny stack my other favorite sleeper game with 2 of the best WR plays on the slate. Evans and Pittman have the matchups, target shares, big play potential and injuries to opposing secondary starters.

On defense the Steelers will probably be 5th or 6th on the totem pole as far as popularity but they are going up against a backup QB who averaged 4.9 yards per attempt in his relief duty last week and will be without Tee Higgins. Seems like a strong pivot to make to me.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Justin Fields at Detroit DraftKings salary: 6,900

RB: Devon Achane vs. Miami DraftKings salary: 6,600

RB: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 7,000

WR: Tank Dell vs. Arizona DraftKings salary: 5,900

WR: DJ Moore at Detroit DraftKings salary: 5,600

WR: George Pickens at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 4,900

TE: Cole Kmet at Detroit DraftKings salary: 4,100

FLEX: Sam LaPorta vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 5,800

DST: Dolphins DST vs. Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 3,200

Reasoning: My exposure to this Bears-Lions game is going to look like that video of the teacher who kept coming to school with different colors of the same shirt. I’ll be playing various 4 and 5 man combinations from but I’m more inclined to do so with Justin Fields at QB. After a slow start for the Bears offense, Fields finished as the QB3 and QB1 respectively in his last 2 full starts before his right thumb injury caused him to miss the last 4 games. Considering the Lions potent offense and the Bears willingness to drop back more in 2023, the attempts should be there for Fields’. His pass attempts in each of his last 2 full starts exceeded any game in 2022. Couple that with the fact that he went over 130 rushing yards in both his starts versus the Lions last year and I’d say his ceiling is as high as nearly anyone’s versus the 21st ranked scoring offense.

The stacking partners are straight forward but doubling up on them should afford us some uniqueness. DJ Moore was equally on a tear with 5 TDs in the 3 games prior to Fields going down. The volume has somewhat been there since but the air yards and upside haven’t hit the same with Tyson Bagent under center. [Side note…whose idea was it to nickname him T-Bag? I’m sure he didn’t ask for that because what self respecting person would?]. Cole Kmet is one of my favorite players on this slate and for my money is the best TE play. Kmet has had at least 23% of the targets in each of the last 3 games (same in Fields week 4 and 5 starts), has a plus matchup versus these Lions LB’s, will likely play from behind versus a Detroit defense that’s top versus the run. I know his blow up’s seem to come randomly but considering that he had 3 TDs versus this team last year, it may be a little more planned than we thought.

Funny enough, my 2nd favorite TE play is in the same game so in an attempt to diversify my palate I’m going to a 2 TE build with Sam LaPorta. These kind of builds aren’t my usual because i feel like many of the plays are taking upside off the table but for as good as Kmet’s matchup is, LaPorta’s could be better. The Bears are equally as targeted by TE’s with similar production and have even stouter run defense but Chicago plays more zone, specifically more cover 2 with Matt Eberflus’ Colts roots and that’s a hot spot for the in-breaking play action shots that Ben Johnson is known for. With the emergence of Trey McBride and Dalton Schultz at cheaper price points, it feels like LaPorta is going to fall under the radar coming off a pedestrian game with a 4-40-0 line…but that would be a mistake. Closing this game stack out with Jahmyr Gibbs who also finds himself in a good spot. As previously stated, the Bears have a lights out run defense…but the Lions have one of the most effective and versatile run games in the NFL and have shown a commitment to it over time…i expect them to continue to have at least a moderate level of success there. Chicago may be without their prized free agent middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds as well, which would be an added boost. The biggest bump however will come in the passing game as Gibbs seems to now be locked into the pass down role versus a Bears defense that has allowed the 3rd most targets and receptions to RB’s, over 100 more receiving yards to RB’s than any other team and the most receiving TDs to RB’s. Gibbs has at least 16% of the Lions targets in each of the last 4 games and with the space creation skills of Ben Johnson i expect fireworks.

Investing so heavily in Bears-Lions i thought about going away from Texans-Cardinals all together but Tank Dell’s price and opportunity proved too much to turn down. His measurables give you the impression he’d get a much of his work in short areas and schemed touches but they give him legit chances to win downfield, he also has 3 end zone targets in the last 2 games. In a matchup versus a leaky, zone heavy Cardinals team…i’ll be dapping up the field in solidarity and play Dell with everybody else.

I saved my off the board play for my last WR choice in George Pickens. I don’t see a ton of middle ground…this either goes terribly or amazing, but that’s what large field tournaments are about. The Browns play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL and Pickens has a 30% target share versus man coverage. More specifically, the Browns lead the NFL in 1-high coverage and Pickens is 10th in yards per route run versus 1-high per the good folks over at fantasypoints.com. The Browns will also be without their centerfield, FS Juan Thornhill…making multiple of those signature deep boundary shots feel a little more attainable this week.

I was slow to react to Achane-mania before his injury so i won’t make that same mistake in what is a great spot. The Raiders give up the 8th most Draftkings points per game to RB’s and outside of Maxx Crosby are low on front seven difference makers. Traveling cross country to bake on the non shaded visitor sideline at Hard Rock stadium sounds like a recipe for potential disaster…or in our case, a 100 + yard day with multiple TD’s. I didn’t tack on the Dolphins defense from the same mindset that i have with previously but on a slate that doesn’t have many exciting low cost options i feel like they are a good compromise. They are a home favorite facing a late round rookie QB who hasn’t really been pushed since he was inserted as the starter. As sound as Aidan O’Connell has looked as a player I’m willing to bet that he makes a couple mistakes with a larger sample size.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Dak Prescott vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 6,700

RB: Najee Harris vs. Green Bay DraftKings salary: 4,900

RB: Ken Walker vs. Washington DraftKings salary: 6,800

WR: Marquise Brown vs. Atlanta DraftKings salary: 5,200

WR: CeeDee Lamb vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 8,500

WR: Drake London at Arizona DraftKings salary: 5,500

TE: Jake Ferguson vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 4,600

FLEX: Curtis Samuel at Seattle DraftKings salary: 3,900

DST: Steelers DST vs. Green Bay DraftKings salary: 3,800

Reasoning: 2 weeks ago I let noise talk me out of my Dak stack so I’m back for redemption. The Cowboys have season high drop back rates in the last 2 weeks and get a Giants defense giving up the 4th most yards per completion. Prescott’s 17 carries in the last 3 games also serves as a ceiling booster. Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup’s underwhelming involvement has made Dak’s stack partners even more straightforward. The Giants blitz heavy, man heavy defense should make CeeDee Lamb smirk like that Kevin James meme…according to PFF, he ranks 2nd in yards per route run and 4th in fantasy points per route versus man coverage. Jake Ferguson ascension continues as his routes run rate has stabilized to high end levels. If Dak gets there, it’s hard to imagine that Ferguson won’t get his cut of the winnings, considering his enviable red zone/green zone role.

The obvious fear here is the Giants offense can’t push back and the Cowboys show restraint as the game nears a close. I feel like I’m playing with fire a bit without a Giants run back but even with a squint and some PPR trickery it’s tough. Believe me a tried…*whispers* The Cowboys give up the 8th most yards per completion and play 1 high coverage at the 2nd highest rate in the league. Jalin Hyatt stealing a long TD is non zero proposition, I just couldn’t bring myself to hit save for you all. I may try it myself in one large field gpp.

I can’t believe I’m playing Najee Harris but on one of the least inspiring RB slates that i can remember he’s one of the few RB’s i see a definitive path for value. The Packers give up the 8th most DraftKings points per game to RBs and travel to Pittsburgh with one the league most punchless offenses. The Steelers won’t be confused with the greatest show on turf but a 20 touch expectation with goal line work in a good matchup feels like good process to me…and in true commitment to the brand, I sprinkled the Steelers defense on like parsley to make it hit a lil more.

Another week, another single stack with Drake London. His price just never matches his ceiling and his floor has been stronger than people believe. This week I’m pairing him with Marquise Brown, a player whose volume has been strong all season but now gets the boost of improved QB play. This Falcons-Cardinals game is giving me sneaky shootout vibes, i just haven’t quite figured out if/how i want to approach it yet.

If I’m not riding the wave with the popular QB(s) play of the week, best believe I’m going to try my best to hate on him with a play…Ken Walker is that vehicle this week. Geno Smith has a great price and set up this week, I’ll be playing him this week in DFS and I’ve held of on cutting him in redraft for this matchup specifically…but he’s not the only benefit of the environment. A couple pass plays stop short of the goal line, a few more carries to salt away the game…even with Charbonnet’s increased involvement, Walker could still push for 20 carries, and with his propensity to break off long runs, he could put together the type of game you need. I found another under the radar attachment to this game to pair with him in Curtis Samuel. The Seahawks zone heavy defense is most vulnerable in the middle of the field which is where Samuel frequents out of the slot. The Commanders have begun to spread the ball around in the passing game but since week 4, the primary slot receiver has had a target per route run rate of at least 20% in every game…something that has low key come in handy as Washington’s pass rate over expectation continues to climb. Samuel is always a threat for schemed touches in the run game as well. Now he is questionable to play this week with a toe injury, if he doesn’t play you can swap to Jamison Crowder at 3,400 and spend up somewhere else in the lineup.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Aidan O’Connell vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 4,500

RB: Saquon Barkley at Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 7,900

RB: Jonathan Taylor at Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,400

WR: Davante Adams vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 8,100

WR: Nico Collins vs. Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 5,800

WR: Mike Evans at Houston DraftKings salary: 7,300

TE: Michael Mayer vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 2,800

FLEX: Jake Ferguson at Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 4,000

DST: Colts DST at Carolina DraftKings salary: 3,100

Reasoning: It was looking bleak but man, you never know where your blessings are coming from…shout out to Mark Davis for giving Josh McDaniels his walking papers, and in turn giving me someone to play this week. O’Connell was a pleasant surprise in preseason, flashing downfield zip and the ability to throw with timing and anticipation. The matchup is a pseudo tough one facing off against a Wink Martindale defense heavy on blitzes but light on results (27th in sack rate). The first pairing is simple as Davante Adams will most certainly let everyone in the building know what the new order should be. With volume being his only issue, Adams ranks on the short list of very best plays on a slate lacking great ones. Completing the stack with the ascending Mayer who ran a season high 79% of the routes last week and checks price and correlation boxes.

Running it back with Saquon was the natural progression but considering the standing of this slate he would have been a guy i landed on anyway. He’s not someone I’d normally be going out of my way to play but the workload is thicc and while I’m certain that Antonio Pierce will lead the Raiders to play inspired football, unless he can get in there and play middle linebacker…the matchup is a strong one.

The combo of Mike Evans & Nico Collins is my favorite skinny stack of the week. Both have good matchups with size advantages, have made splash plays downfield but win in short areas more than you’d think and have steady and healthy target shares.

Jonathan Taylor played a season 61% of the snaps last week and popped one of his trademark long runs. In a winnable game and a big time OL vs. DL advantage…I can see the Colts really leaning on the Panthers with the run game and forcing the Panthers to lean on a passing game they are still working out the kinks of…making the Colts DST a great pairing, adding a lil razzle dazzle to our JT play.

I normally steer clear of TE in the flex but weird weeks require you to get a lil messy. The lack of cheap WRs i feel great about led me to sneak in the backdoor on the best game of the slate. Ferguson is top 5 in red zone and green zone targets on the season…an opportunity that matches up well with the Eagles vulnerability at TE (2nd most TDs allowed). With a more decisive share of the routes over the last 2 weeks (84% and 85%) finally secured, Ferguson will be a staple of my pool this week.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: CJ Stroud at Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,300

RB: Breece Hall at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 5,900

RB: Christian McCaffrey vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 9,200

WR: AJ Brown at Washington DraftKings salary: 8,000

WR: Nico Collins at Carolina DraftKings salary: 5,500

WR: Tank Dell at Carolina DraftKings salary: 4,800

TE: Tommy Tremble vs. Houston DraftKings salary: 2,500

FLEX: Jahan Dotson vs. Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 4,500

DST: Browns DST vs. Seattle DraftKings salary: 3,000

Reasoning: One of the most pleasant surprises of this season has been the offense of the Texans. I was high on Stroud as a player coming in but had questions about his weapons and the offensive approach with a defensive minded head coach at the controls. In just a couple months that outlook has changed drastically due to OC Bobby Slowik taking his star turn and Nico Collins and Tank Dell providing more juice than i could have imagined. The matchup versus a Panthers defense with the 4th fewest QB hits and 3rd most missed tackles isn’t a prohibitive one…especially if stud edge rusher Brian Burns misses this game. Carolina plays zone coverage at one of the very highest rates in the league but haven’t been particular effective at it. Collins and Dell both rank in the top 30 wide receivers in fantasy points per route run against zone per PFF.

The obvious run back here was Adam Thielen but his $6,600 price tag combined with the prospects of using all 3 of my WR slots on one game didn’t sit well with my spirit. I thought about the potential of the Panthers getting more intentional with Jonathan Mingo during the bye at a $3,400 price tag, but again…3 wide receivers from the same game. My hunt for clues on what would change under new OC Thomas Brown led me to the play. In the game before their bye, Tommy Tremble ran just 2 fewer routes than starter Hayden Hurst. A development that has led Hurst to wonder about his standing with the team and sparked trade rumors while Tremble continues to get into the good graces of Brown. Courtesy of Panthers Beat writer Mike Kaye’s notebook article, Brown has talked up Tremble’s growth since he’s been OC, his physicality in the run game and that he can be a mismatch in the passing game. Talked about building up his role. At the flat minimum price versus a zone heavy Texans team that has allowed the 5th most targets to the position this season…I’ll take my chances on a plus athlete seemingly on the verge of a role graduation.

I usually try to wait until later in the week to start building my player pool but AJ Brown was a pretty easy Monday add. He’s still not priced high enough for his role/talent/volume combo and with the Commanders defense very susceptible to chunk plays, AJB is a play you bang the table for. Terry McLaurin run backs will be a wave many will ride so I’m pivoting to Dotson who essentially matched his usage last week. Many had Dotson as a sneaky threat to overtake McLaurin in the pecking order before the season. It hasn’t been a pretty start for Dotson, but it just felt like an easy way to get different in a surprisingly good boundary matchup from a statistical standpoint. Don’t get me wrong, it’s risky, but scared money don’t what?

Speaking of money…I FINALLY have the money to pay up for CMC. I have no further analysis except that he is an inevitable player in fantasy. The TDs soon come.

Speaking of inevitable players…The Seahawks figure to be one of the 3 most popular defenses on the week while a real life action hero will be roaming the opposite sidelines in Myles Garrett. The Browns defense has been tremendous this year and figure to have an advantage in the trenches with the Seahawks still trying to get their offensive line healthy and on track. I love it when i can pivot on defense by just going to the other side of the game.

I would play Breece Hall at this price even if he had zero pass game involvement but lucky for us he ran a season high 60% of the routes on top of his decisive share of the carries. One of the true outlier talents at the position, capable of popping long runs, Breece is the most popular play for good reason.

BONUS: The initial lineup i landed on felt to touty for my liking so i had to make a couple tweaks but it came together really smooth and will be one I’m playing so i thought I’d share. Swap out Jahan Dotson and Browns DST for Josh Downs and Falcons DST.