By Carey Stevenson
QB: Anthony Richardson vs. Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 5,600
RB: Travis Etienne at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 6,900
RB: Raheem Mostert at Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary:
WR: Treylon Burks at New Orleans DraftKings salary: 5,000
WR: Michael Pittman vs. Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 6,200
WR: Calvin Ridley at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 6,500
TE: Juwan Johnson vs. Tennessee DraftKings salary: 3,900
FLEX: Davante Adams at Denver DraftKings salary: 7,900
DST: Browns DST vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 2,600
Reasoning: The first bet I’m making is on the Jaguars offense bringing fireworks on Sunday. Last year, Trevor Lawrence started to look more like the once in a decade QB prospect he was drafted as, and with their neutral pace boosted after their bye, a high pass rate that could climb even higher and stud WR Calvin Ridley on board, I’m expecting them to score often. Bigsbymania will probably keep Etienne’s rostership in check but the talk of his demise didn’t seem to come to fruition in the preseason, based upon usage. Calvin Ridley gets a date with maybe the least experienced and one of the least talented corner groups in the NFL.
With Etienne and Ridley setting the game script into an ultra negative one…Anthony Richardson can go into Will Smith at Bel Air Prep mode, making plays as a runner and extending plays to land strikes downfield as a passer. Many fear Richardson’s inexperience and lack of top tier weapons but i think Shane Steichen is a proven offensive difference maker that will pull every lever needed facilitate production. The Colts also played faster than expected in preseason, making this a game that will see a lot of plays. Michael Pittman will in turn get big volume, but also has little discussed chunk play upside, as he did come into the league as a downfield catch point winner.
Whenever i don’t invest into the very most popular games in lineups i try to build in bets against them. I was able to do so here with Raheem Mostert (vs. Dolphins and Chargers passing game) and the Browns Defense (vs. Bengals offensive players). For Mostert, the matchup is a great one…the Chargers, allergic to stacked boxes, gave up a healthy 5.5 yards per carry. Back in May, Mostert said that head coach Mike McDaniel apologized to him for not running the ball more last year. With this matchup and LT Terron Armstead ruled out, I’d say this is as good a time as any to right those wrong’s.
The Browns defense held Burrow in check twice last season (Under 240 yards passing in both games) and have added upgrades at every level of their defense and at play caller. Jim Schwartz implements a wide 9 defense with Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith on the edges, that’s frightening for even the best pass protecting units.
The mini stack of Juwan Johnson and Treylon Burks is my way of gaining exposure to 2 of my breakout candidates and making sure I’m correlating my TE play. The Titans defense have a lights out run defense and gave up the 2nd most TE targets last season. Juwan gets an upgrade in QB play, a good red zone role and a higher pass rate even if the Saints don’t want to…but if they do? even better! This play is also leverage on a popular Jamaal Williams. Treylon Burks flashed as rookie and has the type of talent that won’t just fall into the shadows behind De’Andre Hopkins. Hopkins should receive shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore, leaving Burks to contend with Paulson Adebo, a player that was 87th in yards per target allowed.
Davante Adams closes out the lineup as a likely under rostered road underdog. Adams went over 100 yards receiving in both games versus the Broncos last season. He may not get as many deeper targets as he got last season with Jimmy G taking over but he’ll be peppered with targets and with Vance Joseph’s blitz heavy defense, chunk plays could follow if they don’t get home.
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