By Carey Stevenson
QB: Justin Herbert at Tennessee DraftKings salary: 7,000
RB: Travis Etienne vs. Kansas City DraftKings salary: 6,900
RB: Kyren Williams vs. San Francisco DraftKings salary: 5,000
WR: Keenan Allen at Tennessee DraftKings salary: 7,100
WR: Chris Godwin vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 6,000
WR: Mike Williams at Tennessee DraftKings salary: 5,700
TE: Chig Okonkwo vs. Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary: 3,300
FLEX: Deebo Samuel at Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 5,600
DST: Lions DST vs. Seattle DraftKings salary: 3,000
Reasoning: Last week’s lineup actively tried to undercut the Chargers/Dolphins passing game. This week I’m riding with the Bolts. We didn’t see the ball pushed down the field at a higher rate in week 1 for the Chargers but that could’ve been a product of Vic Fangio’s 2 high defense and the uber success of their run game. This week’s matchup versus the Titans offers the opposite as far as downfield resistance and run defense. With an already flammable secondary, the Titans will be without Kristian Fulton and Amani Hooker in a beautiful matchup for this Chargers passing game. With Austin Ekeler likely to miss this week and Gerald Everett and Quentin Johnston in respective timeshares…Keenan Allen and Mike Williams should soak up plenty of volume, trade high percentage looks while Mike Williams pulls in a chunk play or 2. Chig Okonkwo didn’t have the counting stats last week but there was plenty to like. The Titans played a lot more 11 personnel than i expected and had a positive neutral pass rate (Also reasons I’ll be sneaking in Tannehill lineups…judge ya mama). Chig ran 75% of the Titans routes per fantasy life, easily dwarfing any game last year. If I’m punting at TE, let it be correlated with a super athletic player.
The mini stack of Deebo and Kyren Williams affords me the opportunity to take on some popular value while mixing in a player i think will fall under the radar. Kyren has an ultra tough matchup versus the 49ers but his role will be strong regardless of script. If it’s the negative script we expect…Kyren ran the 5th most routes among RB’s last week. The Niners allowed the 3rd most targets to RB’s last season and that carried over to week 1 as the Steelers backs had a combined 10 targets. If the game is more neutral or the Rams play from ahead? don’t let the box score fool you…Kyren ran WAY ahead of Akers when it mattered and at such a cheap price I’m surprised he’s not getting more love. The Deebo play is simple, he’s way too cheap for his talent and opportunity. He’d be a solid play at his price if he was just a floor dude but we know he has a multi TD ceiling.
Etienne didn’t have a blow up game last week but the pathway was there. He had 23 touch opportunities compared to 8 for Tank Bigbsy and while Bigsby did get green zone work, Etienne ran 83% of the routes, a rate he only closely approached in 1 game last season. The Chiefs gave up the 2nd most targets to RB’s last season and in a game with the juiciest total on the slate, the environment should bare fruit for anyone getting 20 touches, let alone a burner like Etienne.
Godwin gets a Bears team that got low key carved up by Jordan Love, has Brandon Thorn’s 32nd ranked Defensive line and will be without their slot corner this week. Baker should be under duress at a much lower rate this week and his target tree is shallow. If Rachaad White’s lower than expected 7% target share holds…Godwin could even vacuum in a couple more targets. Mike Evans is in play here too but he’ll probably be more popular based of his 10 targets last week and I’m trying to get a lower rostered play here to compliment the build.
The Lions are a good looking DST play this week that can get there for you a couple different ways and shouldn’t be overly popular. They are a big home favorite and should have a big time DL>OL advantage this week with the Seahawks missing both their Offensive tackles and turning in an underwhelming performance on both sides of the ball last week. Avenue 1 is the Lions jump ahead and tee off on this Seahawks OL in a positive game script. Avenue 2 is the Seahawks offense look more like their 2022 selves and this game pushes into shootout territory, giving us higher sack and turnover probability.
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