nfl

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Dak Prescott vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 6,700

RB: Najee Harris vs. Green Bay DraftKings salary: 4,900

RB: Ken Walker vs. Washington DraftKings salary: 6,800

WR: Marquise Brown vs. Atlanta DraftKings salary: 5,200

WR: CeeDee Lamb vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 8,500

WR: Drake London at Arizona DraftKings salary: 5,500

TE: Jake Ferguson vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 4,600

FLEX: Curtis Samuel at Seattle DraftKings salary: 3,900

DST: Steelers DST vs. Green Bay DraftKings salary: 3,800

Reasoning: 2 weeks ago I let noise talk me out of my Dak stack so I’m back for redemption. The Cowboys have season high drop back rates in the last 2 weeks and get a Giants defense giving up the 4th most yards per completion. Prescott’s 17 carries in the last 3 games also serves as a ceiling booster. Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup’s underwhelming involvement has made Dak’s stack partners even more straightforward. The Giants blitz heavy, man heavy defense should make CeeDee Lamb smirk like that Kevin James meme…according to PFF, he ranks 2nd in yards per route run and 4th in fantasy points per route versus man coverage. Jake Ferguson ascension continues as his routes run rate has stabilized to high end levels. If Dak gets there, it’s hard to imagine that Ferguson won’t get his cut of the winnings, considering his enviable red zone/green zone role.

The obvious fear here is the Giants offense can’t push back and the Cowboys show restraint as the game nears a close. I feel like I’m playing with fire a bit without a Giants run back but even with a squint and some PPR trickery it’s tough. Believe me a tried…*whispers* The Cowboys give up the 8th most yards per completion and play 1 high coverage at the 2nd highest rate in the league. Jalin Hyatt stealing a long TD is non zero proposition, I just couldn’t bring myself to hit save for you all. I may try it myself in one large field gpp.

I can’t believe I’m playing Najee Harris but on one of the least inspiring RB slates that i can remember he’s one of the few RB’s i see a definitive path for value. The Packers give up the 8th most DraftKings points per game to RBs and travel to Pittsburgh with one the league most punchless offenses. The Steelers won’t be confused with the greatest show on turf but a 20 touch expectation with goal line work in a good matchup feels like good process to me…and in true commitment to the brand, I sprinkled the Steelers defense on like parsley to make it hit a lil more.

Another week, another single stack with Drake London. His price just never matches his ceiling and his floor has been stronger than people believe. This week I’m pairing him with Marquise Brown, a player whose volume has been strong all season but now gets the boost of improved QB play. This Falcons-Cardinals game is giving me sneaky shootout vibes, i just haven’t quite figured out if/how i want to approach it yet.

If I’m not riding the wave with the popular QB(s) play of the week, best believe I’m going to try my best to hate on him with a play…Ken Walker is that vehicle this week. Geno Smith has a great price and set up this week, I’ll be playing him this week in DFS and I’ve held of on cutting him in redraft for this matchup specifically…but he’s not the only benefit of the environment. A couple pass plays stop short of the goal line, a few more carries to salt away the game…even with Charbonnet’s increased involvement, Walker could still push for 20 carries, and with his propensity to break off long runs, he could put together the type of game you need. I found another under the radar attachment to this game to pair with him in Curtis Samuel. The Seahawks zone heavy defense is most vulnerable in the middle of the field which is where Samuel frequents out of the slot. The Commanders have begun to spread the ball around in the passing game but since week 4, the primary slot receiver has had a target per route run rate of at least 20% in every game…something that has low key come in handy as Washington’s pass rate over expectation continues to climb. Samuel is always a threat for schemed touches in the run game as well. Now he is questionable to play this week with a toe injury, if he doesn’t play you can swap to Jamison Crowder at 3,400 and spend up somewhere else in the lineup.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Aidan O’Connell vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 4,500

RB: Saquon Barkley at Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 7,900

RB: Jonathan Taylor at Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,400

WR: Davante Adams vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 8,100

WR: Nico Collins vs. Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 5,800

WR: Mike Evans at Houston DraftKings salary: 7,300

TE: Michael Mayer vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 2,800

FLEX: Jake Ferguson at Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 4,000

DST: Colts DST at Carolina DraftKings salary: 3,100

Reasoning: It was looking bleak but man, you never know where your blessings are coming from…shout out to Mark Davis for giving Josh McDaniels his walking papers, and in turn giving me someone to play this week. O’Connell was a pleasant surprise in preseason, flashing downfield zip and the ability to throw with timing and anticipation. The matchup is a pseudo tough one facing off against a Wink Martindale defense heavy on blitzes but light on results (27th in sack rate). The first pairing is simple as Davante Adams will most certainly let everyone in the building know what the new order should be. With volume being his only issue, Adams ranks on the short list of very best plays on a slate lacking great ones. Completing the stack with the ascending Mayer who ran a season high 79% of the routes last week and checks price and correlation boxes.

Running it back with Saquon was the natural progression but considering the standing of this slate he would have been a guy i landed on anyway. He’s not someone I’d normally be going out of my way to play but the workload is thicc and while I’m certain that Antonio Pierce will lead the Raiders to play inspired football, unless he can get in there and play middle linebacker…the matchup is a strong one.

The combo of Mike Evans & Nico Collins is my favorite skinny stack of the week. Both have good matchups with size advantages, have made splash plays downfield but win in short areas more than you’d think and have steady and healthy target shares.

Jonathan Taylor played a season 61% of the snaps last week and popped one of his trademark long runs. In a winnable game and a big time OL vs. DL advantage…I can see the Colts really leaning on the Panthers with the run game and forcing the Panthers to lean on a passing game they are still working out the kinks of…making the Colts DST a great pairing, adding a lil razzle dazzle to our JT play.

I normally steer clear of TE in the flex but weird weeks require you to get a lil messy. The lack of cheap WRs i feel great about led me to sneak in the backdoor on the best game of the slate. Ferguson is top 5 in red zone and green zone targets on the season…an opportunity that matches up well with the Eagles vulnerability at TE (2nd most TDs allowed). With a more decisive share of the routes over the last 2 weeks (84% and 85%) finally secured, Ferguson will be a staple of my pool this week.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: CJ Stroud at Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,300

RB: Breece Hall at New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 5,900

RB: Christian McCaffrey vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 9,200

WR: AJ Brown at Washington DraftKings salary: 8,000

WR: Nico Collins at Carolina DraftKings salary: 5,500

WR: Tank Dell at Carolina DraftKings salary: 4,800

TE: Tommy Tremble vs. Houston DraftKings salary: 2,500

FLEX: Jahan Dotson vs. Philadelphia DraftKings salary: 4,500

DST: Browns DST vs. Seattle DraftKings salary: 3,000

Reasoning: One of the most pleasant surprises of this season has been the offense of the Texans. I was high on Stroud as a player coming in but had questions about his weapons and the offensive approach with a defensive minded head coach at the controls. In just a couple months that outlook has changed drastically due to OC Bobby Slowik taking his star turn and Nico Collins and Tank Dell providing more juice than i could have imagined. The matchup versus a Panthers defense with the 4th fewest QB hits and 3rd most missed tackles isn’t a prohibitive one…especially if stud edge rusher Brian Burns misses this game. Carolina plays zone coverage at one of the very highest rates in the league but haven’t been particular effective at it. Collins and Dell both rank in the top 30 wide receivers in fantasy points per route run against zone per PFF.

The obvious run back here was Adam Thielen but his $6,600 price tag combined with the prospects of using all 3 of my WR slots on one game didn’t sit well with my spirit. I thought about the potential of the Panthers getting more intentional with Jonathan Mingo during the bye at a $3,400 price tag, but again…3 wide receivers from the same game. My hunt for clues on what would change under new OC Thomas Brown led me to the play. In the game before their bye, Tommy Tremble ran just 2 fewer routes than starter Hayden Hurst. A development that has led Hurst to wonder about his standing with the team and sparked trade rumors while Tremble continues to get into the good graces of Brown. Courtesy of Panthers Beat writer Mike Kaye’s notebook article, Brown has talked up Tremble’s growth since he’s been OC, his physicality in the run game and that he can be a mismatch in the passing game. Talked about building up his role. At the flat minimum price versus a zone heavy Texans team that has allowed the 5th most targets to the position this season…I’ll take my chances on a plus athlete seemingly on the verge of a role graduation.

I usually try to wait until later in the week to start building my player pool but AJ Brown was a pretty easy Monday add. He’s still not priced high enough for his role/talent/volume combo and with the Commanders defense very susceptible to chunk plays, AJB is a play you bang the table for. Terry McLaurin run backs will be a wave many will ride so I’m pivoting to Dotson who essentially matched his usage last week. Many had Dotson as a sneaky threat to overtake McLaurin in the pecking order before the season. It hasn’t been a pretty start for Dotson, but it just felt like an easy way to get different in a surprisingly good boundary matchup from a statistical standpoint. Don’t get me wrong, it’s risky, but scared money don’t what?

Speaking of money…I FINALLY have the money to pay up for CMC. I have no further analysis except that he is an inevitable player in fantasy. The TDs soon come.

Speaking of inevitable players…The Seahawks figure to be one of the 3 most popular defenses on the week while a real life action hero will be roaming the opposite sidelines in Myles Garrett. The Browns defense has been tremendous this year and figure to have an advantage in the trenches with the Seahawks still trying to get their offensive line healthy and on track. I love it when i can pivot on defense by just going to the other side of the game.

I would play Breece Hall at this price even if he had zero pass game involvement but lucky for us he ran a season high 60% of the routes on top of his decisive share of the carries. One of the true outlier talents at the position, capable of popping long runs, Breece is the most popular play for good reason.

BONUS: The initial lineup i landed on felt to touty for my liking so i had to make a couple tweaks but it came together really smooth and will be one I’m playing so i thought I’d share. Swap out Jahan Dotson and Browns DST for Josh Downs and Falcons DST.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Jordan Love at Denver DraftKings salary: 5,800

RB: Aaron Jones at Denver DraftKings salary: 6,800

RB: D’Onta Foreman vs. Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 4,800

WR: Amari Cooper at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 6,100

WR: Mike Evans vs. Atlanta DraftKings salary: 7,100

WR: Drake London at Tampa Bay DraftKings salary: 5,100

TE: Mark Andrews vs. Detroit DraftKings salary: 5,700

FLEX: Christian Watson at Denver DraftKings salary: 5,600

DST: Bears DST vs. Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 2,900

Reasoning: This slate puts me in a bit of a trick bag. I don’t want to pay up at QB and i also don’t feel particularly confident about heavily stacking any of the games featuring non pay up QB’s…that led me to Jordan Love. The Packers have a great matchup, are hella aggressive downfield and have an approach in the red zone that could get us where we need to go as Love ranks 4th in the NFL in red zone pass attempts per game. I have no clue if Love is good or not (he deserves grace but that’s another convo), but he’s very talented and has some appeal as far as his offensive environment and weapons, so I’m leaning in on the boom/bust nature of his play.

Off the strength of his price and our thoughts of the Broncos defense, Love will be semi popular…as will Luke Musgrave, so I didn’t want to go about this in the usual way. That combined with my love for Aaron Jones this week led me to combine the 2 of them with one of my offseason fence swings, Christian Watson. Jones’ limited participation in practice will likely keep his rostership in check, a factor I’m hoping to take advantage of as i will be playing him as he’ll be #freed coming off a multi-week absence. Before his injury, Jones looked like he was poised for a more decisive split of the Packers backfield. His 21% targets per route run make him a cozier fit in Jordan Love stacks than people will think and give us a piece differentiation. Then there’s the matchup versus a Denver defense that has given us hits like Mostert/Achane’s 375 total yard – 5 TD game and Breece Hall’s 194 total yard game. Christian Watson got back to a normal starter’s workload before the bye and his target share and chunk play upside make him the perfect catalyst for a Love blow up game. I don’t feel great about investing in this stack without a run back but I’d feel worse about a 4-40-0 line from one of the non fighting Payton’s.

I love the skinny stack of Drake London and Mike Evans this week. They both have dominate portions of their teams passing games for teams that are dropping back more than we anticipated coming into the season. The Bucs give up the 8th most points per game to WR’s and while the Falcons have been good versus boundary WR’s, I’m willing to bet on Evans’ talent and opportunity combined with the Bucs surprisingly good pass pro versus a subpar Falcons pass rush.

My 2 non correlated mid range plays kinda highlight my lack of confidence in this slate but remain strong options nonetheless. Mark Andrews faces a Lions defense that plays 2 high coverages at one of the highest rates in the league and have allowed the 4th most targets to the position. Amari Cooper gets a Colts matchup we’ve consistently attacked due to their youth and talent level at corner. His target share and downfield opportunity has transcended the Browns QB play.

I close out the lineup with a stack type that I’m a sucker for. I don’t think i was necessarily great about how to use them in the past but with the news of Roschon Johnson missing this week’s game, this D’Onta Foreman/Bears DST stack just made so much sense. The perfect conditions for a great Foreman game is a positive or neutral script where he’s allowed to gain rhythm and grind on a defense for 20+ carries. What better way to ensure that and give the play a lil more umph than playing a contrarian Bears defense? it gives us leverage on those folks playing Josh Jacobs and also…when’s the last time betting against Brian Hoyer steered us wrong?

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Brock Purdy at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 5,600

RB: Chuba Hubbard at Miami DraftKings salary: 4,300

RB: Raheem Mostert vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,400

WR: Brandon Aiyuk at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 6,200

WR: Kendrick Bourne at Las Vegas DraftKings salary: 4,200

WR: Jaylen Waddle vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 7,600

TE: George Kittle at Cleveland DraftKings salary: 5,000

FLEX: Josh Jacobs vs. New England DraftKings salary: 7,000

DST: Falcons DST vs. Washington DraftKings salary: 3,600

Reasoning: The 49ers hung 42 points on one of the most respected defenses in the league last week and this week all we’re doing is haggling about CMC’s price and treating the members of San Francisco’s passing game like Sean Payton treats Marvin Mims Jr. I get it, the Browns defense is legit and look super daunting on paper. In August i talked about how they were one of the only teams that made significant upgrades to every layer of their defense, including play caller. The biggest of those may be along their interior defensive line where the additions of Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris have taken them from the basement last year to maybe the best run defense in the NFL this year. Those guys are legit forces and make that aspect of their defense feel like the most sticky for me (obviously outside of that super hero that wears #95).

Our potential out is in the passing game though, specifically in the red zone. While the Browns defensive metrics reads like a greatest hits list, they rank 25th in opponent red zone scoring percentage (TD only), all of which have come thru the air. Enter Brock Purdy who has the 8th most pass attempts and 5th most TD passes in the red zone. Now i know, super duper small sample, but that’s all we have to go off right now. What if when truly tested, this is a pass funnel defense? One that is about to face one of the best play designers of the last decade.

The fantasy industry has figured out that you favor Brandon Aiyuk versus man heavy defenses and Deebo Samuel versus zone heavy defenses, so with the Browns playing man at the 2nd highest rate in the league, i won’t make things harder than they need to be. My subtle shift in approach at TE has been to mix in a little less correlation and just play the best talent at a non punt but non splurge price. That’ll land me on a lot of Kittle this week which gives me the best of both worlds here. 2 of those Browns red zone TD’s came at the hands of TE Mark Andrews.

With PJ Walker slated to start at QB for the Browns i opted against a Cleveland run back. I actually think he’ll play reasonably but it’s tough to pinpoint a play to have a great deal of confidence in…especially with the Browns having the lowest implied team total of the week.

Everyone loves an underdog but I’ll gladly ride the wave and pick on one this week. The Dolphins #1 DVOA rush offense faces the #32 DVOA rush defense in the Panthers. With Jeff Wilson not slated to play, Raheem Mostert should return to his pre Devon Achane explosion usage…meaning short yardage work and a healthy amount of routes run in maybe the best offensive environment in the NFL. In an attempt to differentiate from the field I’m bringing Jaylen Waddle along for the ride. His green zone opportunity and usage in the screen game last week show an intentional effort to get him more involved, something that should at least stabilize with the subtraction of Achane. The unique Mostert/Waddle combo makes it easier to run it back with a popular Chuba Hubbard but he also fits the build well. I know playing 2 RB’s in the same game feels cringy, but Miles Sanders leaves behind a 14% target share in weeks 1-4 per fantasy life and Chuba has played the most long down and distance snaps in the Panthers backfield in all but one game. I’m expecting a big volume game from Hubbard.

My little Raiders/Patriots mini stack is a straight forward one. Even if the Patriots do somewhat right the ship on offense it’s difficult for me to see a scenario where Josh Jacobs doesn’t have 20 carries and if the Raiders do somehow end up in a negative game script, Jacobs has a receiver-ish 19% target share on the season. I’m pairing him with one of my favorite plays on this slate in Kendrick Bourne. A consistently impactful player when given the opportunity, he’ll have no choice but to receive it this week. The Patriots will be without Juju Smith Schuster and Demario Douglas and are starving for playmaking on offense. Bourne ran 91% percent of routes last week and even with his yo-yo’d playing time this season had his 3rd 20 plus % target share game. For context, every other Patriots skill player has combined for 1 such game. In an offense where Rhamondre Stevenson’s pass game role has noticeably declined and Hunter Henry’s earlier season “magic” has wore off, Bourne has a huge opportunity coming in non frightening matchup versus this Raiders defense.

Paying up for the Falcons defense on in face sounds like a really bad idea historically but if they were a few hundred cheaper i think you can make the argument that they’d be one of the 3 to 5 most popular defenses on this slate. Atlanta is a home favorite with a strong enough run defense to make the Commanders one dimensional. They’re getting good boundary corner play and while they only have 5 sacks on the season, their hurry numbers per drop back and pressure numbers are in the top 10 in the league. With the duo of McLaurin and Dotson underwhelming and having their routes run pinched into and Sam Howell on pace to take 10,217 sacks…I like my chances of getting a season high sack output from the Falcons, with some turnover goodies to go with it.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Anthony Richardson vs. Tennessee DraftKings salary: 7,000

RB: David Montgomery vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,600

RB: Bijan Robinson vs. Houston DraftKings salary: 7,700

WR: Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Tennessee DraftKings salary: 6,400

WR: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 3,500

WR: Garrett Wilson at Denver DraftKings salary: 6,000

TE: Dalton Schultz at Atlanta DraftKings salary: 3,400

FLEX: James Conner vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 5.800

DST: Dolphins DST vs. New York (Giants) DraftKings salary: 3,600

Reasoning: After watching Anthony Richardson thru 3 games, it’s clear a true explosion awaits…and that’s saying something considering he had 30 DraftKings points last week. The pace the Colts are playing at combined with the favorable design of stud play caller Shane Steichen’s offense, sets up AR to be empowered as a runner and passer. Michael Pittman continues to be heavily involved with 28% of the Colts targets and gets THE dream matchup versus the pass insistent Titans defense. Running it back with one of my favorite plays this week in Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. With no Treylon Burks last week, Westbrook-Ikhine had a 5-51-1 line on 81% of routes and 23% of the Titans targets. Deandre Hopkins will pique many people’s interest with his DraftKings price dropping to an all time low, but Westbrook-Ikhine has ran more routes than him in each of the last 2 weeks. He acts as nice pivot on Wandale Robinson at his $3,500 salary.

There’s nothing i can say about Bijan Robinson that you haven’t already heard this week. He will be one of the more popular plays this week, regardless of position but i think we’ve found a unique correlation play to combine with him in Dalton Schultz. I know you’re probably confused since Nico Collins, Tank Dell…hell even Robert Woods are literally right here…but hear me out. I know Schultz’s route run rate dropped last week but in a matchup against stud edge duo TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith, and down both their offensive tackles…Schultz understandably spent 21 of his 35 snaps blocking. On his 14 routes run he was targeted on 3 of them (21%) and has an end zone target in each of the last 3 games per Fantasylife.com. The matchup is a good one as the Falcons run 2 high looks at one of the highest rates in the NFL and have allowed the 5th most targets to TE’s this season. The Falcons defensive line ranks just 25th in pass-rush grade per PFF which I think will enable Schultz to get back around that 65-70% of the routes and makes for a nice contrarian play in the jungle that is TE.

This week’s lineup took me a little longer to put together because I normally lean heavily towards WR in the flex builds. I spent a lot of time trying to pivot away from this 3 RB build but at the end i had to stay true to my gut and my prep. David Montgomery gets a Panthers defense giving up the 5th most DraftKings points per game to RBs (4.7 yards per carry) and with Carolina’s offense being as threatening as a Matt Canada game plan, we could see another 30 carry game from Montgomery.

Speaking of non threatening offenses, people are lining up to play Bengals players while James Conner is sitting on the opposite side in a great spot. The Cardinals offense has the 2nd best rush grade on the week via fantasy points data. The Cardinals offense is averaging 2.37 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, behind only the Eagles and Dolphins. The Bengals on the other hand are are giving up 5.1 yards per carry to RBs. I think this game will be far more competitive than people think (Looks like Vegas agrees, line started Bengals 4.5 and has dropped to 3). Offensive Coordinator, Drew Petzing has crafted a strong run game and Josh Dobbs’ mobility gives edge defenders something additional to think about. Look for Conner to get a healthy workload and bring great value at $5,800.

The Jets have started to show some intention with Garrett Wilson’s usage. Per Josh Norris, Wilson had 22 snaps from the slot last week, 8 of them resulted in a target. It’s a refreshing development just a few weeks removed from us saying our goodbyes to our Wilson breakout WR1 campaign. At $6,000, against a burnable Broncos defense and leverage on Breece Hall #freed week…Wilson is set up for a good game.

I try to avoid popular defenses but i feel like the Dolphins DST is a truly great play that I’ve kinda given myself room to play. We’re expecting a likely positive game script for the Dolphins offense and no Andrew Thomas again at LT for the G-Men. The Seahawks defense came into their Monday night game versus the Giants with a disappointment pass rush, ranking 29th in sack rate. They left the game with 11 sacks…drops mic.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Russell Wilson at Chicago DraftKings salary: 5,800

RB: Zach Moss vs. Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 6,000

RB: Tony Pollard vs. New England DraftKings salary: 7,800

WR: Marvin Mims Jr. at Chicago DraftKings salary: 3,900

WR: Puka Nacua at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 6,700

WR: Courtland Sutton at Chicago DraftKings salary: 5,300

TE: Dallas Goedert vs. Washington DraftKings salary: 4,400

FLEX: Ja’Marr Chase at Tennessee DraftKings salary: 7,800

DST: Raiders DST at Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary: 2,300

Reasoning: Those who have followed my lineups over the years know i like to get outside the box, so it pains me to have so many players that have gotten hyped up this week in the lineup…but I’ve gotta be true to what my prep is telling me. So as i transition into the primary stack, Russ has been getting buzz this week but there are a couple factors here that could still give us differentiation. No matter how many boxes it checks thru the week, how many people just can’t bring themselves to click Russ on Sunday? also, the people that are brave enough to do so, will they double stack him? Courtland Sutton has assumed the #1 receiver role in Denver and is top 5 in redzone targets thru the 1st 3 games. Marvin Mims is a stay ready so you don’t have to get ready play…his role will inevitably grow and I’m choosing to get out ahead of it in a beautiful matchup. Majority of his snaps should end up against Tyrique Stevenson, who per PFF has allowed 1.85 yards per coverage snap and has a 4.9% explosive pass plays allowed rate.

I also like that this play is a pivot on a pretty popular Javonte Williams. I thought briefly about running it back with DJ Moore and too a much lesser extent, Cole Kmet to get the TE correlation i covet…but it just felt too much like i was making a substandard play.

The combined volume of the Puka Nacua/Zach Moss skinny stack make it an easy click. On one end you have Moss getting prime Eddie George usage and the other Puka has a whopping 34% target share this season. With 2 teams that trend towards the top of the league in plays run, this game could bare plenty of fruit from a fantasy prospective.

For my money, Tony Pollard should be the highest rostered RB on this slate but he won’t be because the splash plays and TDs haven’t been there the last 2 weeks. The Patriots run defense looks like an avoid on paper but when you dig deeper i see a different story. In week 1 they got the Eagles, who leaned heavily on Kenneth Gainwell, the more effective D’Andre Swift only had one carry in that game. In week 2, Raheem Mostert got them for 121 rushing yards and 2 TDs. In week 3 they shut down the Jets team led by Zach Wilson that had just lost their LT. The Pats defense is still very formidable and the Cowboys have OL injury concerns of their own but Pollard has a dream role in a very good offensive infrastructure. At $7,800 he’s at least a smidge too cheap.

Speaking of the paper telling a different story. Dallas Goedert is one of my very favorite players on this slate for that reason. The Commanders look tough on paper because they’ve faced teams that don’t throw to the TE but they play the most 2 high in the league and Zach Ertz had 10 targets on them in week 1. Goedert is running routes at a near elite clip and is coming off back to back 7 target games. Like Woj tweet, i’m usually “laser focused” on correlation at TE but the position being so damn shaky I’m leaning more on play the best plays, especially with Goedert’s salary not being prohibitive.

Ja’Marr Chase has a great matchup going up against the run defiant Titans. Thru schemed touches and enhanced slot usage, Chase will get his volume regardless…but in a game where the drop backs should be even more plentiful than normal and a matchup that’s been among the very best for WRs for 3 seasons and running, Chase is a priority play.

I’m not gonna hold you, 97% of this Raiders DST play is just about me running out of money. Defense is so random though so maybe we get lucky in a division game were the Chargers are missing two of their best players in Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams. Unlike the Vikings last week, the Raiders will play man coverage at one of the higher rates in the league and we could see them use more resources to slow Keenan Allen down. Seeing the Chargers come out flat in a winnable game feels like a coin flip at worst.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Geno Smith vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 5,700

RB: Travis Etienne vs. Houston DraftKings salary: 6,900

RB: Tony Pollard at Arizona DraftKings salary: 8,000

WR: Tyreek Hill vs. Denver DraftKings salary: 9,000

WR: Tyler Lockett vs. Carolina DraftKings salary: 6,400

WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba DraftKings salary: 4,300

TE: Dalton Schultz at Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 3,700

FLEX: Jonathan Mingo at Seattle DraftKings salary: 3,400

DST: Commanders DST vs. Buffalo DraftKings salary: 2,400

Reasoning: There are so many appealing QB plays this week that it took me a little longer than it did in Week’s 1 and 2 to land on a primary stack…and while there is some certainly some discomfort with this one, the upside at the price makes it one I’m willing to chance. Geno basically had the same game that Goff did in their duel last week, yet he’s $800 cheaper and offers leverage away from a popular Kenneth Walker. The Panthers defense looks like a difficult matchup and first glance and I have a ton of respect for DC Ejiro Evero but when you dig a little bit deeper there are questions. Carolina has 8 sacks on the season but have middling to bad pressure numbers outside of that. They’ll be without stud corner Jaycee Horn and middle LB Shaq Thompson and haven’t been truly tested by a pass game this season. I went Lockett > Metcalf due to DK’s current injury status and Lockett heightened opportunity versus zone coverage (78% of Panthers Def snaps). According to @fball_insights, 73% of their defensive snaps are spent with one safety high, giving Lockett at chunk plays. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has fallen victim to Pete Carroll’s tight end orgy’s but has still found some production with a strong 21% target per route run rate per fantasy life. As correlation obsessed as i try to be, i must admit…I looked at this Panthers offense and thought about not running it back. Adam Thielen woulda gave us some cheap volume but it felt like getting a small tax credit you’re not supposed to…So i decided to aim higher and go with the only theoretical juice in this Panthers passing game in Jonathan Mingo. Riq Woolen will miss this game, the Seahawks have been getting hammered by boundary WR’s this year and have missed 23 tackles in their first 2 games (3rd most in the NFL). The latter being a welcome sight for the rocked up 6’2” 220 pound Mingo in the open field. The Panthers have missed 25 tackles this season btw so let’s mid off this thing right into a shootout!

My weekly process starts with me going thru every game first and sitting with my thoughts on them over the course of the week. There is just so much research to do, information to absorb and perspectives to gain that I usually don’t start to build my preliminary player pool until Thursday/Friday..then i pare that down to a more definitive group early Sunday morning. When i sat down on Monday morning, Tony Pollard went into my player pool immediately. His profile is that bulletproof.

Speaking of bulletproof profiles, Tyreek Hill will probably see a ton of maybe the best CB in football in Patrick Surtain Jr and none of us care. His outlier talent combined with the way he’s deployed makes it nearly impossible to keep the ball out of his hands. With the Broncos defense giving up the 5th most adjusted net yards per pass attempt and traveling cross country to bake on the visitors side of Hard Rock stadium…should be business as usual for Tyreek.

Another week, another Travis Etienne lineup. He just feels close to a blowup that i fomo. As big home favorite in a good matchup and dominating the carries for the Jags, this week is as good as any for him to cash in. His route run rate came down in week 2 but it was still higher than it was in 14 of the 19 games he played last season and he pulled in all 3 of his targets. Hopefully that’s the low water mark for him but if it isn’t he can still get there. We don’t know who will get the next goal line carry for the Jags but if it’s Etienne, the wheels will be especially up. With Nico Collins and Tank Dell getting well deserved buzz, Dalton Schultz will rank 4th at best from a popularity standpoint but he’s quietly ran 81% of the Texans routes this season (tied for 7th most among TE’s). The targets are shallow ones and he doesn’t offer the athleticism to rip off a huge gain but in a likely negative game script with 2 teams playing fast, I’ll take my chances here in a correlated play that will fall below the radar.

On defense I’m making the bet that Josh Allen just can’t help himself. The Commanders have a monstrous defensive line and play with 2 high safeties at the highest rate in the league. Behind Brandon Thorn’s 21st ranked offensive line, I expect the Commanders to get pressure…i also expect Allen to have lapses in restraint, and hopefully those turn into sacks/picks/fumbles/td’s.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Justin Herbert at Tennessee DraftKings salary: 7,000

RB: Travis Etienne vs. Kansas City DraftKings salary: 6,900

RB: Kyren Williams vs. San Francisco DraftKings salary: 5,000

WR: Keenan Allen at Tennessee DraftKings salary: 7,100

WR: Chris Godwin vs. Chicago DraftKings salary: 6,000

WR: Mike Williams at Tennessee DraftKings salary: 5,700

TE: Chig Okonkwo vs. Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary: 3,300

FLEX: Deebo Samuel at Los Angeles (Rams) DraftKings salary: 5,600

DST: Lions DST vs. Seattle DraftKings salary: 3,000

Reasoning: Last week’s lineup actively tried to undercut the Chargers/Dolphins passing game. This week I’m riding with the Bolts. We didn’t see the ball pushed down the field at a higher rate in week 1 for the Chargers but that could’ve been a product of Vic Fangio’s 2 high defense and the uber success of their run game. This week’s matchup versus the Titans offers the opposite as far as downfield resistance and run defense. With an already flammable secondary, the Titans will be without Kristian Fulton and Amani Hooker in a beautiful matchup for this Chargers passing game. With Austin Ekeler likely to miss this week and Gerald Everett and Quentin Johnston in respective timeshares…Keenan Allen and Mike Williams should soak up plenty of volume, trade high percentage looks while Mike Williams pulls in a chunk play or 2. Chig Okonkwo didn’t have the counting stats last week but there was plenty to like. The Titans played a lot more 11 personnel than i expected and had a positive neutral pass rate (Also reasons I’ll be sneaking in Tannehill lineups…judge ya mama). Chig ran 75% of the Titans routes per fantasy life, easily dwarfing any game last year. If I’m punting at TE, let it be correlated with a super athletic player.

The mini stack of Deebo and Kyren Williams affords me the opportunity to take on some popular value while mixing in a player i think will fall under the radar. Kyren has an ultra tough matchup versus the 49ers but his role will be strong regardless of script. If it’s the negative script we expect…Kyren ran the 5th most routes among RB’s last week. The Niners allowed the 3rd most targets to RB’s last season and that carried over to week 1 as the Steelers backs had a combined 10 targets. If the game is more neutral or the Rams play from ahead? don’t let the box score fool you…Kyren ran WAY ahead of Akers when it mattered and at such a cheap price I’m surprised he’s not getting more love. The Deebo play is simple, he’s way too cheap for his talent and opportunity. He’d be a solid play at his price if he was just a floor dude but we know he has a multi TD ceiling.

Etienne didn’t have a blow up game last week but the pathway was there. He had 23 touch opportunities compared to 8 for Tank Bigbsy and while Bigsby did get green zone work, Etienne ran 83% of the routes, a rate he only closely approached in 1 game last season. The Chiefs gave up the 2nd most targets to RB’s last season and in a game with the juiciest total on the slate, the environment should bare fruit for anyone getting 20 touches, let alone a burner like Etienne.

Godwin gets a Bears team that got low key carved up by Jordan Love, has Brandon Thorn’s 32nd ranked Defensive line and will be without their slot corner this week. Baker should be under duress at a much lower rate this week and his target tree is shallow. If Rachaad White’s lower than expected 7% target share holds…Godwin could even vacuum in a couple more targets. Mike Evans is in play here too but he’ll probably be more popular based of his 10 targets last week and I’m trying to get a lower rostered play here to compliment the build.

The Lions are a good looking DST play this week that can get there for you a couple different ways and shouldn’t be overly popular. They are a big home favorite and should have a big time DL>OL advantage this week with the Seahawks missing both their Offensive tackles and turning in an underwhelming performance on both sides of the ball last week. Avenue 1 is the Lions jump ahead and tee off on this Seahawks OL in a positive game script. Avenue 2 is the Seahawks offense look more like their 2022 selves and this game pushes into shootout territory, giving us higher sack and turnover probability.

By Carey Stevenson

QB: Anthony Richardson vs. Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 5,600

RB: Travis Etienne at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 6,900

RB: Raheem Mostert at Los Angeles (Chargers) DraftKings salary:

WR: Treylon Burks at New Orleans DraftKings salary: 5,000

WR: Michael Pittman vs. Jacksonville DraftKings salary: 6,200

WR: Calvin Ridley at Indianapolis DraftKings salary: 6,500

TE: Juwan Johnson vs. Tennessee DraftKings salary: 3,900

FLEX: Davante Adams at Denver DraftKings salary: 7,900

DST: Browns DST vs. Cincinnati DraftKings salary: 2,600

Reasoning:  The first bet I’m making is on the Jaguars offense bringing fireworks on Sunday. Last year, Trevor Lawrence started to look more like the once in a decade QB prospect he was drafted as, and with their neutral pace boosted after their bye, a high pass rate that could climb even higher and stud WR Calvin Ridley on board, I’m expecting them to score often. Bigsbymania will probably keep Etienne’s rostership in check but the talk of his demise didn’t seem to come to fruition in the preseason, based upon usage. Calvin Ridley gets a date with maybe the least experienced and one of the least talented corner groups in the NFL.

With Etienne and Ridley setting the game script into an ultra negative one…Anthony Richardson can go into Will Smith at Bel Air Prep mode, making plays as a runner and extending plays to land strikes downfield as a passer. Many fear Richardson’s inexperience and lack of top tier weapons but i think Shane Steichen is a proven offensive difference maker that will pull every lever needed facilitate production. The Colts also played faster than expected in preseason, making this a game that will see a lot of plays. Michael Pittman will in turn get big volume, but also has little discussed chunk play upside, as he did come into the league as a downfield catch point winner.

Whenever i don’t invest into the very most popular games in lineups i try to build in bets against them. I was able to do so here with Raheem Mostert (vs. Dolphins and Chargers passing game) and the Browns Defense (vs. Bengals offensive players). For Mostert, the matchup is a great one…the Chargers, allergic to stacked boxes, gave up a healthy 5.5 yards per carry. Back in May, Mostert said that head coach Mike McDaniel apologized to him for not running the ball more last year. With this matchup and LT Terron Armstead ruled out, I’d say this is as good a time as any to right those wrong’s.

The Browns defense held Burrow in check twice last season (Under 240 yards passing in both games) and have added upgrades at every level of their defense and at play caller. Jim Schwartz implements a wide 9 defense with Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith on the edges, that’s frightening for even the best pass protecting units.

The mini stack of Juwan Johnson and Treylon Burks is my way of gaining exposure to 2 of my breakout candidates and making sure I’m correlating my TE play. The Titans defense have a lights out run defense and gave up the 2nd most TE targets last season. Juwan gets an upgrade in QB play, a good red zone role and a higher pass rate even if the Saints don’t want to…but if they do? even better! This play is also leverage on a popular Jamaal Williams. Treylon Burks flashed as rookie and has the type of talent that won’t just fall into the shadows behind De’Andre Hopkins. Hopkins should receive shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore, leaving Burks to contend with Paulson Adebo, a player that was 87th in yards per target allowed.

Davante Adams closes out the lineup as a likely under rostered road underdog. Adams went over 100 yards receiving in both games versus the Broncos last season. He may not get as many deeper targets as he got last season with Jimmy G taking over but he’ll be peppered with targets and with Vance Joseph’s blitz heavy defense, chunk plays could follow if they don’t get home.